Friday, September 4, 2015

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

As we enter the autumn shoulder season, our obsessive preoccupation with supply gives way to El Niño and whither/whether weather.
More on that next week. For now, the U.S. Energy Information Adminstration:

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Prices outside the Northeast are fairly flat. The hot summer weather continues for most of the nation. Temperatures increased throughout the report week in the central and eastern parts of the country, although on the West Coast, temperatures moderated. The Henry Hub spot price began the report week at $2.72/MMBtu last Wednesday and settled yesterday down 1¢ at $2.71. Prices at other market locations were mostly flat. The Chicago Citygate price fell by 2¢, closing at $2.79/MMBtu yesterday. Cheyenne, in southeast Wyoming, rose by 1¢ to $2.53/MMBtu. Prices at PG&E Citygate, serving Northern California, fell by 2¢ over the report week, closing at $3.10/MMBtu yesterday. Other West Coast price points saw larger declines, but none exceeding a dime.

Northeast prices continue to rise on increased power demand. After falling late last week, prices in the Northeast increased early this week as many states in the region saw temperatures averaging between 70° and 80° Fahrenheit. Additionally, TGP Station 245 in central New York is undergoing maintenance, temporarily losing more than 0.2 Bcf/d of capacity. Gas prices at the Algonquin Citygate, serving Boston, started the report week at $3.06/MMBtu, peaked at $3.75 on Monday, and ended the week up at $3.14/MMBtu yesterday. At Transcontinental Pipeline's Zone 6, serving New York City, the spot price started the report week at $2.66/MMBtu, dipped on Friday, and ended the week up at $2.84 yesterday....

...Nymex prices decline. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the September near-month contract began the report week at $2.693/MMBtu last Wednesday and settled at $2.638 on Thursday, when it expired as the near-month contract. The October contract began as prompt-month on Friday at $2.715/MMBtu and settled down a nickel, at $2.648 yesterday. The 12-month strip, averaging the October 2015 through September 2016 Nymex contracts, averaged $2.884/MMBtu for the report period. The Nymex futures contracts for January through March of 2016 are all very close to $3.00/MMBtu, indicating market expectations of a modest winter price premium.

Supply remains flat. Dry natural gas production was similar to the past report week, averaging 72.3 Bcf/d, which is 3.7% higher than last year at this time, according to Bentek Energy data. Imports of natural gas from Canada fell by 1%, while LNG sendout increased by 5%, averaging 0.3 Bcf/d. LNG sendout was dominated by volumes at the Everett terminal in Boston, which saw temperatures increase markedly early this week. Overall supply was unchanged from the previous report period....MUCH MORE
Front futures $2.668 -0.057 rising to $3.008 for February's.
Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Aug 27, 2015