Thursday, September 17, 2015

"Economists React to the Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Decision: ‘Relief’"

I think this is our first post on the Fed this week.

DJIA down 18 at 16,721
S&P up 0.01% at 1995.38
WTI up 6 cents at $47.21.

We're still bullish, as stated in last week's "Once Upon a Time: The Bear Market Fiction"

From Real Time Economics:
The Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates unchanged on Thursday after weeks of market-churning debate at the central bank about whether it was time to end an era of near-zero rates. Officials noted concerns about recent turbulence in financial markets and in economies abroad. Here’s what some economists are saying:

“The mention of ‘monitoring developments abroad’ hints at a concern with global conditions such as the Chinese stock market selloff played a significant part in the central bank holding rates….The USD is losing ground across the board as the timing of the rate hike is being pushed back. The USD was boosted by potential interest rate divergence and the more the Fed delays the first rate hike, the market will punish the dollar.” —Alfonso Esparza, Oanda

“While the labor market has made sufficient progress to raise the federal funds rate from rock bottom, inflation is still running below target, convincing the Fed that it can afford to wait a little longer without fear that the economy is close to overheating….The delay will come as a relief at a time when concerns about the health of the global economy are mounting, particularly given the recent softening in China and the recessions in Brazil and Russia….Instead the Fed will wait, until December at the earliest, and the path of monetary tightening will be slow and measured.” –Joseph Lake, Economist Intelligence Unit

“The Federal Reserve has said that it is data-dependent, and while there is positive data out there, it’s clear more time is needed to evaluate incoming data in order to ensure sufficient progress….All eyes will now turn to the Dec. 15–16 meeting of the FOMC. Conventional wisdom continues to hold that short-term rates will increase by year’s end, with the December meeting being the most likely option. The other possibility would be the Oct. 27–28 meeting, but that seems less likely.” –Chad Moutray, chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers