Tuesday, September 15, 2015

EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Oil Per New Well Stalls, Oil Per Region Continues Decline

These are estimates of current month and month ahead production.
From the Energy Information Administration:
Oil production
thousand barrels/day
Gas production
million cubic feet/day
RegionSeptember 2015October 2015change September 2015October 2015change
Bakken1,2031,182(21) 1,5771,575(2)
Eagle Ford1,4861,424(62) 6,9256,808(117)
Haynesville5858- 6,4846,52339
Marcellus7171- 16,37216,290(82)
Niobrara399380(19) 4,3714,321(50)
Permian1,9972,02023  6,4706,4788
Utica7271(1)  2,7942,790(4)
Total5,2865,206(80) 44,99344,785(208)

The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural gas wells to provide estimated changes in oil and natural gas production for seven key regions. EIA's approach does not distinguish between oil-directed rigs and gas-directed rigs because once a well is completed it may produce both oil and gas; more than half of the wells produce both.
While shale resources and production are found in many U.S. regions, at this time EIA is focusing on the seven most prolific areas, which are located in the Lower 48 states. These seven regions accounted for 95% of domestic oil production growth and all domestic natural gas production growth during 2011-13....MORE
August 10
Oil: EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Forecast For Further Declines In U.S. Shale Production
Since the May release when shale production for that month was estimated at 5.643 MMBbl/day the estimated production has declined at around 90,000 barrels per month to this most recent estimate (Aug. 10), for September, of 5.270 MMBbl/day.
This has not been a fast enough decline to reduce the market overhang.

However, for the first time, the production increase per rig is almost nil, an extra 1Bbl/day.

We're still looking for lower prices as production from the MENA countries remains near current production levels, albeit with some constituent changes: lower Saudi Arabia, higher Iraq and Iran, possible wild card in Libya etc. but the contribution of the U.S. to the increase in the oversupply has run it's course.

Until we see the $60-65 range that seemed to get the rigs spinning a couple months ago.
July 14 
EIA Oil Drilling Productivity Report: Production Per New Well Continues Up, By Region Maintains Downtrend
June 8 
EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Production Per Rig Continues Up, Production By Region To Decline 91,000 Bbl/Day
 May 14, 2015
Oil--EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Production Per Rig Continues Higher; Per Region Rolls Over In June
April 14, 2015
Oil--EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Production Per Rig Still Heading Up
March 13, 2015
Oil & Gas Drilling Rig Efficiency Increasing Dramatically
Feb. 9, 2015
EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Production Per Rig Up Across the Most Prolific Shale Plays
Oct. 1, 2014 
EIA Drilling Productivity Report (e.g. higher initial, faster decline in the Eagle Ford)
Aug. 2014
Oil & Gas: The EIA's Drilling Productivity Report 
Nov. 2013
Oil&Gas: A Deep Dive Into the EIA's New Metric, Rig Productivity