Monday, September 21, 2015

Hedge Funds Get Bullish On Agricultural Commodities For The First Time In 9 Weeks

Despite recent gains, overall it's been a tough year for funds, links below.
Corn         379-6 +2-4
Soybeans 872-0 +4-6
Wheat 492-6 +6-0

From Agrimoney:
Hedge funds end bearish turn on ags, after US corn downgrade
Hedge funds turned more positive on agricultural commodities for the first time in nine weeks, spurred by lower hopes for the US corn yield, although on coffee, they turned their most bearish in nearly two years. 
Managed money, a proxy for speculators, lifted its net long position in futures and options in the top 13 US-traded agricultural commodities, from cotton to cattle, by 19,402 contracts in the week to last Tuesday, analysis of data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulator shows. 
The increase in the net long - the extent to which long bets, which profit when values rise, exceed short holdings, which benefit when prices fall – was the first since July, and ended the longest run of selling down in more than a year. 
And the improved bullishness was led by positioning in grains, after the US Department of Agriculture on September 11 cut its forecast for the domestic corn yield by 1.3 bushels per acre to 167.5 bushels per acre, a bigger downgrade than investors had forecast.
Grain buying 
In corn itself, hedge funds raised their net long position by more than 20,000 contracts in Chicago, a process spurred in particular by the closure of short bets, which had proved largely profitable for investors....MORE
August 10

"Hedge Funds Caught Out By Grain Price Moves - Again"

This is getting ridiculous.

Corn is up 14'2 (3.65%) at 398'0.

The story thus far:

June 2
"Hedge funds' bearish bets on ags hit record high"

June 30
PM Markets: Corn Futures Climb 7% as US Data Rocks Markets"  

July 6
"Hedge funds smash record for turning bullish on ags"

July 22
"Red hot grains, hit resistance, cooling off"

August 3
UPDATED--Commodities: "Bloodied hedge funds return to ag selling with a vengeance"

August 10--From Agrimoney:

Hedge funds, bruised by wrong bets on corn and soybean price rises, continued to make up for lost time in going short on grains – just as going long is looking the profitable bet.....