The Timeless Allure of Stock-Market Timers
Dennis Gartman is not our favorite prognosticator. I've said in the past that Gartman will lose you money in equities* ("Warren Buffett is an idiot") but in commodities, especially ags, but also commodities in general, he exhibits what computer modelers call forecast skill and can generate excess returns....That posts has links going back to 2010.
A Warning For The Bears: Gartman Goes Short S&P Futures, "Very Worried In Catholic Terms"
Will Gartman make it 4 out of 4 this week?
As a reminder, Tuesday Gartman came out swing bearish and stocks soared. On Wednesday, he was bullish and stocks staged a late tumble. On Thursday, Gartman exhausted from all the flip-flopping refused to virtually trade virtual money, and said he was "flat and nervous". Stocks, not knowing how to fade that, closed virtually unchanged. To wit:S&P 1,948.15 down 1.35; Dec. T-note future 127'14.
Tuesday - bearish:
...Which brings us to today, and the most recent now daily flip-flop by the world renowned contrarian indicator, when somewhat to our surprise, Gartman did not revert back to being bullish, which would be great news for bears, but instead Gartman decided to almost assure that stocks close the week green.Trend Line Support, We Fear, Is A Very Long Way Down: This is a sobering thought, but this chart… which we included in our commentary yesterday… should give everyone a case of very real concern for support for the S&P is several hundred points below where the market closed on Friday. Strength is to be sold into.... We remain here at TGL modestly net short of the market generally and we’ve no intention of changing that focus other than to become a bit shorter still as time and market conditions demand....
From a purely technical circumstance we are still quite worried about the markets in general terms, but we are very worried about the markets here in the US in specific, catholic terms because the current consolidation has traced out what in the text-book of technical analysis, Edward’s & McGee’s Technical Analysis of Stock Market Trends is a nearly classic “pennant” formation......We'll sell the S&P future short and will buy the December T-note at the same time, with the S&P trading 1933.00 as we write and with the Dec T-note future trading 127 ¼. We’ll risk no more than 1.5% on either position and we look for the consolidation in the S&P to resolve itself sharply lower as discussed at length above....MORE
As we write.
Stick to commodities Mr. G.