Monday, August 9, 2010

Dennis Gartman is an Idiot (BRK.B; DXY)

On June 18, 2009 Dennis Gartman said "Warren Buffett is an idiot"* and announced to the world that he was short Berkshire Hathaway. Neither of these were very smart moves. As the chart below shows, Berkshire is up 40-odd percent since Gartman's call.
In fact BRK.b has outperformed the S&P 2:1 in the intervening months:

On June 18, 2010 he called the euro "doomed". It is up 7.2% in the last seven weeks. Here's Bloomberg:
Euro Returns 5% for Bulls Who Acted as Trichet Defied Breakup
The euro’s rally from a four-year low in June resulted in losses for followers of bears from Paul Volcker to Dennis Gartman.

Since Volcker, the 82-year-old former Federal Reserve Chairman, said May 13 the euro may face “disintegration,” it’s up 5.99 percent against the dollar. Traders who held off purchasing the common currency on June 18, when Gartman called it “doomed,” missed a 7.3 percent return. Buying on May 6, when European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the euro was a “good store of value,” earned 5.28 percent.

While the rebound from $1.1877 on June 7 was sparked by a European Union-led 750 billion-euro ($996 billion) regional aid package and a strengthening German economy, the pessimists such as Jim Rogers say the gains won’t last. They are betting that the currency area will split as austerity measures undertaken by Greece, Spain, Portugal and other nations curb growth and widen the rift with stronger member states.
“The euro has had a spectacular bounce,” said Gartman, 59, editor of the Gartman Letter in Suffolk, Virginia. “Were all of the problems that were attendant and discussed and so obvious in February, March and April of this year, have they been alleviated? Not even slightly. The major trend for the euro is still toward disintegration.”...MORE
That may or may not be. Either way though, Dennis Gartman is an idiot.

"Euro to Go Under $1.20 'Almost Certainly': Gartman" (EUR/USD)
Last I saw, the € cost 1.2211 $.*
Heckuva job, Brownie.
He stepped up and called a two cent move. "almost certainly"
The euro got to 1.1877 and reversed. At the moment it is at 1.3239.
Gartman: ‘Warren Buffett Is an Idiot’
Gartman: Warren Buffett Isn't An "Idiot" .. But He Allowed "Inexcusable" Losses (BRK.A)