Tuesday, August 10, 2010

"Commodities to Tumble as Deflation `Blob' Eats Credit: Technical Analysis"

In other news, wool futures were up over one percent on word that Wall Street would try to pull the product of genus ovid over Main Street's eyes.
I mean, who knows?
The cocoa guy is getting nibbled at by tiny drops in the price of the dark goddess and I am so close to retelling the story of Fat Marvin, The Great Winfield and cocoa that I could burst:
"...For, after all, I had been into cocoa a bit myself. That was back when The Great Winfield had discovered cocoa trading. Occasionally in those more leisured days I would sit with him lazily watching stocks move, like two sheriffs in a rowboat watching catfish in the Tennessee River...."
Maybe next week. Right now, here's Bloomberg:
Commodities may skid 43 percent over the next 16 months, returning to the four-year low of February 2009, as deflationary concerns commandeer financial markets and drain credit, said Walter J. Zimmerman Jr., the chief technical analyst at United-ICAP in Jersey City, New Jersey.

The attached chart shows that the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials has become tied to swings in the S&P 500 index on a daily basis since September 2008. Zimmerman said the stock market has been dictating prices of crude oil, gasoline, copper and silver on an hour-by-hour basis for more than a year, a sign that commodities are trading on economic expectations rather than their own supply and demand. He said that has never happened before.

“The Blob, or the collective mood of the consumer, has eaten the independence of key commodities,” Zimmerman, who has studied price patterns since the early 1980s, said yesterday in a telephone interview from Tyler Hill, Pennsylvania. “This all speaks to the fear and pessimism, the contraction, the conservatism, the unwillingness to take a big position to the upside. This is the psychology of a deflating economy.”...MORE