Thursday, August 12, 2010

"Could commodity prices be in for a downdraft?"

Don't let today's broadly based up-move in the agricultural commodities lull you into dreams of bovine bliss.
The real indicator may be the energy complex where every component is down on the day.
From Humble Student of the Markets:
Several months ago Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg pointed out that the Shanghai stock market appears to lead commodity prices by about four months.

Looking at the chart below, the Shanghai Composite broke down in mid-April. Fast forward four months to today and factor in yesterday's market action...MORE