Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Oil: EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Forecast For Further Declines In U.S. Shale Production

Since the May release when shale production for that month was estimated at 5.643 MMBbl/day the estimated production has declined at around 90,000 barrels per month to this most recent estimate (Aug. 10), for September, of 5.270 MMBbl/day.
This has not been a fast enough decline to reduce the market overhang.

However, for the first time, the production increase per rig is almost nil, an extra 1Bbl/day.

We're still looking for lower prices as production from the MENA countries remains near current production levels, albeit with some constituent changes: lower Saudi Arabia, higher Iraq and Iran, possible wild card in Libya etc. but the contribution of the U.S. to the increase in the oversupply has run it's course.

Until we see the $60-65 range that seemed to get the rigs spinning a couple months ago.
September futures $43.87 down $1.09.
From the Energy Information Administration:
New-well oil production per rig
barrels/day

New-well gas production per rig
thousand cubic feet/day
Region August 2015 September 2015 change August 2015 September 2015 change
Bakken 688 692 4 701 713 12
Eagle Ford 766 792 26 2,129 2,183 54
Haynesville 27 27 - 5,972 5,982 10
Marcellus 58 59 1 8,350 8,415 65
Niobrara 546 561 15 1,975 2,020 45
Permian 327 333 6    581 584 3
Utica 271 281 10    7,061 7,246 185
Rig-weighted average 433 434 1 2,442 2,429 (13)

Oil production
thousand barrels/day

Gas production
million cubic feet/day
Region August 2015 September 2015 change August 2015 September 2015 change
Bakken 1,182 1,155 (27) 1,491 1,468 (23)
Eagle Ford 1,538 1,482 (56) 6,976 6,864 (112)
Haynesville 58 58 - 6,722 6,718 (4)
Marcellus 73 74 1 16,432 16,372 (60)
Niobrara 417 399 (18) 4,528 4,478 (50)
Permian 2,030 2,038 8    6,351 6,342 (9)
Utica 65 64 (1)    2,662 2,659 (3)
Total 5,363 5,270 (93) 45,162 44,901 (261)

...MORE 

Previously:

July 14 
EIA Oil Drilling Productivity Report: Production Per New Well Continues Up, By Region Maintains Downtrend
June 8 
EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Production Per Rig Continues Up, Production By Region To Decline 91,000 Bbl/Day
 May 14, 2015
Oil--EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Production Per Rig Continues Higher; Per Region Rolls Over In June
April 14, 2015
Oil--EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Production Per Rig Still Heading Up
March 13, 2015
Oil & Gas Drilling Rig Efficiency Increasing Dramatically
Feb. 9, 2015
EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Production Per Rig Up Across the Most Prolific Shale Plays
Oct. 1, 2014 
EIA Drilling Productivity Report (e.g. higher initial, faster decline in the Eagle Ford)
Aug. 2014
Oil & Gas: The EIA's Drilling Productivity Report
Nov. 2013
Oil&Gas: A Deep Dive Into the EIA's New Metric, Rig Productivity