Thursday, August 27, 2015

Société Générale's Albert Edwards On Flirting and Rejection

From FT Alphaville:

Equities soar. Have some Albert
One of the many lessons from equity investing during Japan’s Lost Decade is that in a secular bear market hope is a killer. In a secular bear market hope should only be flirted with briefly during cyclical upturns, but it must be ruthlessly rejected as the cycle turns. In a secular bear market being wedded to hope destroys portfolios as the bear slashes to ribbons the hard-fought gains of the previous bull market. Gains that have taken years to accumulate are gone in months. One key measure we monitor informs us conclusively: we are now in a bear market.
The ‘key measure’ SocGen strategist Albert Edwards is referring to here is one of six models developed by his quant-ist colleague, Andrew Lapthorne. And, in chart form, it looks like this:
You should probably contact SocGen directly for a full explanation of that...MORE

Société Générale's Albert Edwards Not His Usual Jolly Self 
Music For Albert Edwards. On A Cold Day. In February
Société Générale's Albert Edwards Descends Into A Nightmare World of Dream Demons and Market Depravity
Société Générale's Albert Edwards Is Not Dead
Nor is he restin'. Beautiful plumage though.
Société Générale's Albert Edwards Is Worried
Société Générale's Albert Edwards Is Bearish (and possibly suffering from a mental disorder)
Albert appears to have begun speaking in clichés which is one of the hallmarks of the mental disorder jargonaphasia, more below. Here's Mr. Edwards at CNBC, see how many clichés you can find: