Our comment following January 9's jobs report was just a throwaway line focusing on the reader's peace of mind:
"US Adds Only 50K Jobs In December, Missing Estimates, But Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.4%"
This is not the 2019 job market and unless your expectations are ratcheted down, reality will continue to mess with your olden-times 150,000 per month mental anchoring, troubling the bliss you deserve and are otherwise moving toward....
Our thinking is that the breakeven number is down to around ~50,000 per month.
Here, Citadel thinks it might be even lower:
Market InsightsJanuary 12
2026: Starting Strong
....On the labour market, my view for some time has been that the primary policy change of last year was immigration, something which will have profound implications for the long-term makeup of the US economy. Net migration moving from +3 million to zero (or negative) means that the labour force has shrunk and will continue to do so, assuming these policies remain in place (which I fully expect). Combined with aging demographics, this serves to constrain labour supply and reduces the breakeven level of job creation…which is consistent with recent labour market data…NFP at 50k (vs breakeven of ~30k)…Prime-Age EPOP near multi-decade highs….and low Initial Jobless Claims (212k 4wk avge.). This tells me that the labour market remains structurally tight with high utilization of the core workforce and real constraints on labour supply with current policies meaning that labour force growth cannot easily come from domestic workers (and that’s before we consider the substitution effect based on relative skills)....
....MUCH MORE, he is more concerned with inflation than we are but tomorrow's and next month's numbers should help clarify despite the data still being a bit hinky from the government shutdown.
Earlier today - Ahead of Tomorrow's December CPI Report: The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast
He also mentions how loose the FCI is, something we also noted on January 8:
U.S. Financial Conditions Are Looser Now Than They Have Been In Four Years
And:Still Too Much Liquidity In The System: "Bluefin Tuna Sells for Record $3.2 Million at Tokyo Fish Market Auction"
And 9:
Too Much Liquidity In The System: "Andreessen Horowitz raises $15 billion across five funds for tech startup investments"
