From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, January 21:
Latest estimate: 5.4 percent — January 21, 2026
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent on January 21, up from 5.3 percent on January 14. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, increases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 3.1 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively, to 3.2 percent and 6.4 percent, were partially offset by a decrease in the nowcast in the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter GDP growth from 1.99 percentage points to 1.88 percentage points....
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That's up 1/10th percent since their last estimate. As we've said over the years, The GDPNow estimate tends to run hot, gradually coming down to whatever the first (flash) GDP estimate released by the BEA turns out to be.
This Atlanta Fed Q4 estimate will be updated tomorrow after the BEA releases their 2nd estimate of Q3 2025 GDP.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent....
