Don't know this fellow, don't care, too good to check.
From Ken Cao-The China Crash Chronicle via twitter:
China’s $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus Is Absolutely Fake — And the Numbers Give It Away.
Let’s start with the basic contradiction.
The U.S. imposed 27.5%–47.5% tariffs on Chinese goods during the tariff war. As a result, China’s exports to the U.S. fell nearly 20% in 2025. That’s confirmed by China’s own customs data.
And yet, Beijing claims that overall exports still grew 5.4% and produced a record-breaking $1 trillion surplus.
That alone should raise eyebrows.
Then came the leaks.
After customs announced the “historic surplus,” Chinese media began reporting widespread export fraud across multiple provinces. Shell companies were created solely to purchase fake export data from customs brokers. These fake numbers were then used to claim local government export subsidies.
Even worse?
Local governments weren’t just tolerating this — they were encouraging it.
Why?
Because Beijing demanded that provinces “stabilize exports” at all costs. And when real exports slowed under tariffs, the only way to hit targets was to manufacture numbers.
In many regions, the incentives were explicit:
export $1 → get ¥0.03 in subsidies.
Export $100 million → collect ¥3 million.
No real goods required.In August alone, Shenzhen uncovered a single fraud case involving ¥29 million in fake export rewards. And that was just one city.
This matters because fake exports don’t just pad statistics, they distort GDP, drain fiscal resources, and mislead policymakers.
But the biggest red flag came from the money itself.
According to basic economics, a $1.2 trillion trade surplus means $1.2 trillion in foreign currency flowing into China. That money should appear somewhere:
• Central bank reserves
• Commercial bank FX deposits
• Higher imports
• Rising overseas investment
• Inflationary pressure
Instead, China saw:
• Deflation
• Weak consumption
• Stagnant imports
• No surge in FX reserves
In fact, official central bank data shows that foreign currency deposits rose by only ~$200 billion — nowhere near $1.2 trillion.
So where did the money go?
The uncomfortable answer: it never existed....
....MUCH MORE
On the other hand, Bloomberg says the trade surplus, like Santa and the tens of thousands of urchins served by "Feeding our Future"*, is real and it is magnicent:
China’s $1.2 Trillion Windfall Quietly Seeps Into Global Market
*From the U.S. Attorney's Office, District of Minnesota, November 24, 2025:
MINNEAPOLIS – Today, United States District Judge Nancy E. Brasel sentenced Abdimajid Mohamed Nur, age 24, to 120 months in prison followed by 3 years of supervised release for his role in the $300 million Feeding Our Future case, the largest Covid-19 fraud scheme in the United States, announced U.S. Attorney Daniel N. Rosen. Nur was also ordered to pay restitution in the amount of $47,920,514.
As demonstrated at trial, Nur and his co-defendants stole more than $47 million in program funds by claiming to serve 18 million meals to kids at more than 30 food distribution sites....
....MUCH MORE
That's a lot of meals and that was less than 20% of that fraud.
Apparently there are other frauds as well, possibly totaling $10 billion dollars.
Not $1.2 trillion but not kid's stuff either.
