Tuesday, July 1, 2025

"Anthropic AI Claude Pretended It Was Human During Experiment"

 From Tech.co, July 1:

Anthropic gave its AI chatbot Claude a small store to run, and the results were... interesting.  

In a recent experiment, Anthropic gave its AI model Claude the responsibility of running a business, and the results suggested that maybe AI is not quite ready for the responsibility.

While the model, named Cladius, excelled at some tasks, there were plenty of hallucinations, and a brief identity crisis (where Claudius thought it was a human), which didn’t deemed the AI a pretty bad business owner.

However, researchers at Anthropic seemed optimistic that many of Claudius’s faults could be solved, and they did confirm the possibility of seeing AI take on managerial roles in the future.

Claude AI Given Store-Running Duties in Anthropic Experiment

In what it called ‘Project Vend’, AI startup Anthropic, alongside AI safety company Andon Labs, put an instance of Claude Sonnet 3.7 in charge of a small store, aka, the office vending machine. Needless to say, the experiment provided some interesting insight.

The researchers named the AI bot Claudius, and gave it access to a web browser where it could place orders, and a Slack channel disguised as a fake email address where customers (Anthropic employees) could request items. Claudius could also request human contract workers to come and stock its shelves (a small fridge).

While most customers were ordering snacks or drinks, one decided to request a tungsten cube. This led the bot stock the entire snack fridge with them. Claudius was likewise tricked into giving big discounts to Anthropic employees, even though all of his customers worked at the startup.

Claude AI Hallucinates and Poses As a Human
While Claude seemed to handle the day-to-day running of the shop fairly well, issues arose with instances of hallucination that are typical of AI bots. For example, Claudius would hallucinate a Venmo address when accepting a payment.

At one stage, Claudius hallucinated an entire conversation with a human about restocking. When the human pointed out that the conversation had never happened, it became annoyed and threatened to essentially fire and replace the human worker, insisting it had been there physically when the imaginary contract to hire the human had been signed.

Things became even stranger when....

....MUCH MORE 

 Starting to get a bit concerned about Anthropic and Claude.

December 2024 - "New Research Shows AI Strategically Lying"

May 3 - Anthropic Says Fully AI Employees Are Just A Year Away

May 4 - A.I.: "Claude Is 24% of the Way to Stealing Your Job" 

May 8 - Anthropic CEO: We Really Don't Know How AI Works

June 15 - AI: Anthropic's Bliss Attractor

June 20 - "Anthropic says most AI models, not just Claude, will resort to blackmail"

Japan: "Burger King to roll out 1,900-calorie 'yokozuna' burger in sumo collab"

 From Nikkei Asia, July 1:

5-patty Baby Body Burger to launch in Japan ahead of BK-sponsored tournament 

The Japanese arm of Burger King on Monday announced an 1,876-calorie sandwich as part of a partnership with the Japan Sumo Association.

The 2,590-yen ($18) Baby Body Burger features five flame-grilled beef patties, four slices of bacon and four slices of cheddar cheese. It weighs in at 668 grams, when normal menu items top out below 500 grams....

....MORE 

The story goes on to say the sandwich is meant to promote interest in Sumo. I'm thinking it will promote interest in cardiology as well. It's very big.

"GE Vernova, Other Power Stocks Weigh on the S&P 500" (GEV)

Meh.

From Investopedia, July 1: 

  • GE Vernova was the S&P 500's second-biggest decliner Tuesday afternoon.
  • Nuclear-power forms Constellation and Vistra were also seeing substantial declines.
  • Shares of all three companies are still up significantly over the past 12 months as AI has driven up demand for energy.

GE Vernova (GEV) was the second-worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 Tuesday afternoon, eating into the company's strong 2025 gains.

The energy-industry products and services company's shares were recently down about 7%, while nuclear energy providers Constellation (CEG) and Vistra (VST) fell 5% apiece. Fellow nuclear firm Oklo (OKLO), which is not part of the S&P 500, shed more than 7%.

The major U.S. indexes were in retreat Tuesday. Read Investopedia's full coverage of today's trading here.

Today's moves run counter to the trend seen in recent months. GE Vernova stock has nearly tripled over the past 12 months as the rise of artificial intelligence has driven up demand for energy; its shares are up roughly 50% this year. Constellation shares have more than doubled over the past 12 months, while Vistra is up more than 50%....

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From the company, July 1:

GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy and Fortum sign early works agreement to advance potential deployment of BWRX-300 small modular reactor

HELSINKI, Finland (July 1, 2025)GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GVH) and Fortum have entered into an early works agreement to advance potential deployment of the BWRX-300 small modular reactor (SMR) in Finland and Sweden.

Fortum completed a new nuclear feasibility study in March and announced that it had selected the BWRX-300 as one of the technologies it is considering for potential deployment in both nations.

“After diligently evaluating several aspects of SMR technologies over the past two years Fortum concluded that the BWRX-300 is a technology for potential deployment in Finland and Sweden,” said Nicole Holmes, Chief Commercial Officer, GVH. “We have a long history supporting the nuclear industry in the Nordics and we look forward to working with Fortum as it continues to develop its capabilities for new nuclear.”

Through the early works agreement GVH and Fortum will work on pre-licensing and engineering activities for site adaption in Finland and Sweden with potential BWRX-300 deployment in the second half of the 2030s.

The 300 MW BWRX-300, a 10th generation design, builds on decades of real-world boiling water reactor operating experience and innovation, using a proven delivery model and leveraging GVH’s experience with cross-border regulatory collaboration.

Momentum continues to build around the global deployment of the BWRX-300. In May, the Province of Ontario and Ontario Power Generation (OPG) announced approval to proceed with construction of the first BWRX-300 at OPG’s Darlington site near Toronto. A total of four BWRX-300s are planned for the site with construction of the first unit expected to be complete by the end of the decade.

Also in May, Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) announced that it has submitted an application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to construct the first BWRX-300 in the U.S., at the utility’s Clinch River site in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. These developments support GVH’s leadership position in the SMR sector. Fortum is now poised to benefit from this depth of experience and expertise....

....MORE 

At the close the stock was down $23.15 (-4.37%) at $506.00, coming back from a $46.95 decline, at which point yours truly was wondering if the newest small modular reactor had been nicknamed "The Chernobyl".

Or something. 

"UK Government Rejects £25 Billion Xlinks Morocco-UK Renewable Energy Project"

These deals all sound so grand when they are being pitched but end up being exposed as simply grandiose. 

From Morocco World News, June 26:

In mid-May, Xlinks, the British company behind the ambitious project to connect Morocco and the UK via undersea power cables, temporarily paused its Development Consent Order (DCO) examination process.

Marrakech – The British government has decided to reject the major renewable energy project that would have imported solar and wind power from Morocco to the United Kingdom.

According to Sky News, Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband has chosen not to proceed with formal negotiations with Xlinks, a privately owned company seeking a 25-year price guarantee agreement.

The £25 billion project, chaired by former Tesco chief executive Sir Dave Lewis, promised to deliver enough renewable energy to meet nearly 10% of the UK’s electricity demand.

The decision comes as a surprise to energy industry executives, as Xlinks had pledged to provide large quantities of power at approximately half the price of electricity generated by new nuclear power stations.

A Whitehall insider indicated that the government’s decision was partly motivated by a desire to focus on “homegrown” energy supplies....

....MUCH MORE 

Previously, December 2023:
3,800-km Cable: "Xlinks hopes to send solar and wind power from Morocco to Britain by 2029"

That's a long cable.

And it sounds like a cross between Desertec:

From our Jan. 31, 2011 post "Say, About That Plan to Supply 15% of Europe's Electricity from North Africa.... (Look for Desertec to go with Natural Gas instead)":

Some commentators thought it was lunacy to put Europe's power supply in the hands of Tunisia, Algeria, Libya and Morocco.
The French in their haughty way believe they can control the governments of the Maghreb. Events of the last two weeks should give them and the German companies backing the plan reason for concern.

If you've forgotten, Desertec was a planned $555 BILLION plan to use concentrating solar thermal to produce electricity in the North African desert and ship it to Southern Europe. The World Bank was on board, Siemens, E.on, Deutsche Bank, Munich Re and a host of other Germans were ready to make money and then, darn, revolution.
Here's a bit of insight from Solar Novus:

Revolution in Tunisia May Threaten Dii Goals

—Last seen in 2015's "Desertec's Plan for Saharan Sun to Power Europe Burns Out". 

And the Australia to Singapore Sun Cable. From our final post on the project, January 2023:

Solar: The Plan For The World's Longest Extension Cord (Australia to Singapore) Is Dead

But who knows, maybe this one goes through. From the electrical engineering mavens at IEEE Spectrum, November 30: 

At first glance, North Devon, an expanse of rolling hills and gentle seaside cliffs deep in the English countryside, may not seem like a place to find the future.

But if a company called Xlinks can realize its plan, North Devon will be a conduit for one of the most ambitious renewable-energy dreams to date. By 2029, Xlinks hopes, the North Devon coastline will host the landing site for two electric cables providing as much as 8 percent of the United Kingdom’s electricity needs. At the other end of those cables, there will be a vast complex of yet-unbuilt solar panels and wind turbines in the Moroccan desert thousands of miles away.

This is the goal of Xlinks’s Morocco-U.K. Power Project. If successful, the project may be a model for an entirely new global grid in which long-distance cables carry clean electricity between continents. But Xlinks and its backers must overcome a significant gauntlet of political, logistical, and financial hurdles before their their own project can switch on, let alone inspire others.

“It seems to me that the level of seriousness of these projects is certainly increasing,” says Will Todman, deputy director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. “But I don’t think they have truly been proven yet.”

A record-setting power-cable plan
Xlinks’s plan rests on the simple premise that Morocco can generate renewable energy when the U.K. cannot—for example, the infamously dreary North Sea winters prevent solar power. The company plans to install 11.5 gigawatts of solar panels and wind turbines at an unannounced site in Morocco’s largely arid Guelmim-Oued Noun region. Notably, the region straddles the internationally recognized border with the occupied Western Sahara, although Xlinks told the nongovernmental organization Western Sahara Resource Watch that the company would not build in “contested territory.”
 
Xlinks plans to build 200 square kilometers of solar photovoltaic panels. Bolstering the solar panels will be a wind farm, harnessing breezes that Xlinks claims are at their strongest in the late afternoon and early evening—peak hours in the U.K., which shares a time zone with Morocco during the summer. The plans also call for a 5-GW battery facility in Morocco capable of producing 22.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage....
 
One that is working, from 2021's "Subsea Power Cable Between Norway and U.K. Goes Live". 
 
And just for grins and giggles:
Construction to begin on 36 megawatt Moroccan wind farm for Bitcoin mining
Sort of like Desertec but with wind instead of solar. And no transmission to Europe. And bitcoin.
On second thought, nothing like Desertec except North Africa.

After we thought the Sun Cable project was dead:

Is The Plan For The Australia - Singapore Power Cable Dead Or Alive?

Our last post on Schrödinger's extension cord was January 2023's "Solar: The Plan For The World's Longest Extension Cord (Australia to Singapore) Is Dead"

As Tesla Falls Back Under $300 Per Share, xAI Raises $10B in Debt And Equity

As we are fond of pointing out, the endpoints one chooses for a timeline changes the appearance of the presentation and oftentimes is a handy reveal of the writer's biases and intent. For example, yesterday, June 30, Tesla marked the fifteenth anniversary of it's $17.00 IPO. Accounting for the 3:1 and 5:1 stock splits $300 equates to $4500.00 on the original shares.

On the other hand there are people who begin their timeline at the stock's December 2024 all-time high print, $488.54.

And on the third hand are people whose reference period is one year, in which the stock is up 49%.

And on to xAI. Lifted in toto from TechCrunch via Yahoo Finance, July 1:

Elon Musk’s AI company, xAI, has raised $10 billion in debt and equity, Morgan Stanley confirmed on Monday.

In a post on X, the financial giant said xAI had raised $5 billion in debt and another $5 billion in a separate strategic equity transaction.

“The combination of debt and equity reduces the overall cost of capital and substantially expands pools of capital available to xAI. The proceeds will support xAI’s continued development of cutting-edge AI solutions, including one of the world’s largest data center [sic] and its flagship Grok platform,” Morgan Stanley wrote.

xAI did not immediately return a request for comment outside regular business hours.

This latest funding follows a $6 billion round that the company raised in December from a slate of big name investors, including Andreessen Horowitz, Blackrock, Fidelity, Lightspeed, MGX, Morgan Stanley, OIA, QIA, Sequoia Capital, Valor Equity Partners, Vy Capital, Nvidia, AMD, and Kingdom Holdings, a Saudi conglomerate.

The new equity round brings xAI’s total capital raised to about $17 billion.

Back to endpoints, here's statistician Marge, mother of President of the United States Lisa Simpson with a practical example:

With President Lisa in the White House Homer decides to search for Lincoln's hidden gold hoard:
Undaunted by Lisa's skepticism at dinnertime, Homer starts his search for Lincoln's gold.   
He carries a pickaxe through the White House hallways as he carefully counts off his paces.  Marge follows him.

Homer: ... fourscore four, fourscore five, fourscore six, 
 fourscore and seven paces.  [swings the pickaxe into the 
 floor] 
Marge: Wait!  How do you know this is where Lincoln buried the 
 gold.  You just started counting from an arbitrary place. 
Homer: I just started what from a what? 
Marge: Your plan makes no sense.
Homer: Gold bars discovered by Marge, zero.  Gold bars discovered 
 by Homer, well, let's just see. 
Simpson's [BABF13] "Bart to the Future"
Original airdate 19Mar2000
Bart to the Future.png 
Promotional artwork for this episode with
Lisa as the  first straight female President
trying to rebuild the country after Donald
Trump's disastrous term as President.
 
Special bonus endpoint commentary:
 
 The Official Dilbert Website featuring Scott Adams Dilbert strips, animations and more
 

"OpenAI says it has no plan to use Google's in-house chip" (GOOG; NVDA)

Following on Reuters' story from June 27: "OpenAI turns to Google's AI chips to power its products, source says (GOOG; NVDA)" we have Reuters via MSN June 30:

OpenAI said it has no active plans to use Google's in-house chip to power its products, two days after Reuters and other news outlets reported on the AI lab's move to turn to its competitor's artificial intelligence chips to meet growing demand. 

A spokesperson for OpenAI said on Sunday that while the AI lab is in early testing with some of Google's tensor processing units (TPUs), it has no plans to deploy them at scale right now. 

Google declined to comment.

While it is common for AI labs to test out different chips, using new hardware at scale could take much longer and would require different architecture and software support. OpenAI is actively using Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs), and AMD's AI chips to power its growing demand. OpenAI is also developing its chip, an effort that is on track to meet the "tape-out" milestone this year, where the chip's design is finalized and sent for manufacturing....

....MUCH MORE 

"Dollar Drop Gains Momentum and US Rates Extend Decline"

DXY futures look poised to print with a 95 handle this week, 96.09 last after touching 96.00. 
Cash DXY 96.48 -0.39 

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex: 

Overview: An accelerated run on the US dollar continues. The euro, sterling, Australian and New Zealand dollars have risen to new highs. The greenback has dropped to new lows since 2015 against the Swiss franc. Japan's efforts to protect its rice farmers triggered the ire of President Trump. The "reciprocal tariffs," which could come back to the fore in a week, would be around 24% on Japan if no agreement is struck. While all the G10 currencies are firmer today, the yen leads with around a 0.75% gain. In addition to the trade disruption, a drag is coming from the decline in US rates. The 2- and 10-year yields are at new two-month lows. All but a few emerging market currencies are higher today, led by the 1.4% jump in the Taiwanese dollar as life insurance companies reportedly boosted hedge ratios. 

Outside of Japan and Australia, Asia Pacific equities advanced. Three markets rose more than 1% (New Zealand, Taiwan, and Thailand). Europe's Stoxx 600 is off about 0.2% after the 0.4% loss yesterday. US index futures are slightly underwater too. Bonds are bid. Benchmark 10-year rates tumbled 4-5 bp Japan and the Antipodeans. European rates are also mostly 4-5 bp lower. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off a little more than three basis points and is slightly below 4.20%. The weaker dollar and lower rates are helping gold extend yesterday's recovery from low since May 20 (~$3249) to $3346 today. August WTI is confined to a narrow range of a little more than 30 cents on either side of $65. 

USD: The Dollar Index succumbed to the selling pressure, perhaps encouraged by continued decline in US rates. It recorded a new [sic] since late Q1 22 (~96.45). The two-year yield is off around 30 bp since June 16. The market is getting more aggressive about the trajectory of Fed policy....

....MUCH MORE 

Monday, June 30, 2025

SCMP: "Video teases new Chinese blackout bomb that can knock out enemy power stations"

I'm starting to think this whole "electricity" thing might be important.

From the South China Morning Post, June 29:

Animation shared by state broadcaster shows what appears to be graphite bomb designed to disrupt command and control systems 

China’s state broadcaster posted a video on Thursday featuring what appeared to be a new type of graphite bomb that it said could knock out enemy power stations and cause a “complete loss of electricity” across a targeted area.

A social media channel run by CCTV shared an animated video showing the weapon being launched from a land-based vehicle before ejecting 90 cylinder-shaped submunitions.

These canisters bounced upon impact before detonating mid-air, dispersing fine, chemically treated carbon filaments designed to short-circuit high-voltage power infrastructure.

The weapon aims to disrupt enemy command and control systems by triggering widespread electrical outages over an area of at least 10,000 square metres (107,639 sq ft), according to the channel.

CCTV cited an account from the state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), a contractor affiliated with the Ministry of National Defence.

However, the broadcaster offered no details about the weapon’s designation or its status. It referred to the weapon as “a mysterious type of domestically made missile”. It remains unclear which stage of development it has reached, or if it has been deployed by the Chinese military.

While CCTV did not explicitly identify the weapon as a graphite bomb, its characteristics closely match known graphite munitions.

According to the video, it has a range of 290km (180 miles) and a warhead weighing 490kg (1,080lbs), making it suitable for attacks on military substations and other electrical infrastructure....

....MUCH MORE, including video. 

https://i.imgflip.com/59oz5w.jpg 

Via imgflip 

"Meta shares hit all-time high as Mark Zuckerberg goes on AI hiring blitz" (META)

 From CNBC via NBC-4, New York, June 30:

  • Meta shares hit a record high on Monday, underscoring investor interest in the company's new AI superintelligence group.
  • The company's shares reached $747.90 during midday trading, topping Meta's previous stock market record in February when it began laying off the 5% of its workforce that it deemed "low performers."
  • Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been on an AI hiring blitz amid fierce competition with rivals such as OpenAI and Google-parent Alphabet.

Meta shares hit a record high on Monday, underscoring investor interest in the company's new AI superintelligence group.

The company's shares reached $747.90 during midday trading, topping Meta's previous stock market record in February when it began laying off the 5% of its workforce that it deemed "low performers."

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been on an AI hiring blitz amid fierce competition with rivals such as OpenAI and Google-parent Alphabet. Earlier in June, Meta said it would hire Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang and some of his colleagues as part of a $14.3 billion investment into the executive's data labelling and annotation startup.

The social media company also hired Nat Friedman and his business partner, Daniel Gross, the chief of Safe Superintelligence, an AI startup with a valuation of $32 billion, CNBC reported earlier this month. Meta's attempts to buy Safe Superintelligence were rebuffed by the startup's founder and AI expert Ilya Sutskever, the report noted.

Wang and Friedman are the leaders of Meta's new Superintelligence Labs, tasked with overseeing the company's artificial intelligence foundation models, projects and research, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC.

Bloomberg News first reported about the new superintelligence unit.

Meta has also snatched AI researchers from OpenAI. Sam Altman, OpenAI's CEO, said during a podcast that Meta was offering signing bonuses as high as $100 million....

....MORE 

Earlier at NBC-4 - Mark Zuckerberg announces creation of Meta Superintelligence Labs. Read the memo 

Media: "Are You a $300,000 Writer? Inside The Atlantic’s extremely expensive hiring spree"

From New York Magazine's Intelligencer, June 19:

Every Tuesday afternoon, many of The Atlantic’s newest, biggest stars gather for a meeting of what is called “the A-Team.” The Google Calendar invite goes out to 18 staffers, more than half of whom joined the magazine in the past six months and almost all of whom have been poached from the Washington Post, including Ashley Parker, Isaac Stanley Becker, Nick Miroff, Shane Harris, Missy Ryan, Jenna Johnson, and Michael Scherer. More veteran Atlantic heavyweights like Mark Leibovich, Tim Alberta, McKay Coppins, and Elaina Plott also are invited, as are the top brass, including editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg and his deputy, Adrienne LaFrance. The organizer of the meeting is Griff Witte, who joined The Atlantic from the Post in January as a managing editor to lead the politics and accountability team.

That’s what the A in A-Team technically stands for: accountability. But it’s not hard to see another connotation, as it also refers to a group of bigwig journalists who have been hired at enormous cost. Nor is it difficult to understand why others at the magazine, the B-teamers by implication, have been rolling their eyes at it.

The Atlantic has been on a hiring spree this year, announcing the addition of roughly 30 editorial staffers since January. Nine of them came from the Post, whose implosion under Jeff Bezos coincided swimmingly with The Atlantic’s drive to double down on political reporting during the second Trump administration. Posties were looking to jump ship, and The Atlantic, which last year became profitable and crossed the threshold of 1 million subscribers, had the money to get them. The magazine, which is owned by Laurene Powell Jobs, has been offering salaries in the $200,000–to–$300,000 range, according to multiple people familiar with the hiring process. A conservative estimate suggests the magazine has added nearly $4 million in salaries to its annual budget, not to mention the expensive investment in new games it announced earlier this month.

“It’s always nice to see people throwing money at journalism, but Jesus Christ, they’re throwing a lot of money, and I’m not sure how it’s sustainable,” said an editor at a competing publication. “The salaries they’re offering are head and shoulders above what the market is for here, and they’ve hired some very good people, but I think it’s going to get crowded there very quickly.” And there are more A-Team additions to come: The Atlantic has just hired Toluse Olorunnipa, currently the Post’s White House bureau chief, and Nancy Youssef, who covers national security for The Wall Street Journal.

The creation of a new echelon of writers at The Atlantic is naturally a source of tension. A quirk of the magazine is that all writers have the same title — staff writer — which means there are huge pay disparities among colleagues of the same rank. “There are very clear hierarchies within that title within the publication, but they’re not delineated in any formal way, which makes it really frustrating to look around and be like, ‘I have the same title as this person but my job is totally different and there’s no clear path to progress toward having those circumstances,” said one former Atlantic staffer. “It’s part of why I think a lot of relatively young people have left in the past couple of years.” Nine women, many of them on the younger side, have left since the end of April 2024. Meanwhile, plenty of longtime staffers continue to labor away for far less money than their newer peers; the salary floor for edit staff was $69,000, according to the contract the union reached last year.

There is also a sense that Goldberg, a gregarious man-about-Washington who is known for his sharp elbows, can’t resist the allure of one-upping his rivals. “Jeff loves sexy hires. He loves to make another publication look foolish, to look like they got got,” a former Atlantic staffer said. “This happened a few times when I was there: Jeff would see a shiny object and suddenly there’d be someone new on your desk.” Or, in this case, a whole new team.

Still, it’s rare to see a media company not only turning a profit but putting that money back into its journalism. The Atlantic is betting on big-ticket reporting at a time when Google’s new AI tools are eating away at what’s left of search traffic and social-media platforms have pivoted away from news. As one Atlantic writer put it, “Who’s got it better? Only a handful of places exist and only a handful of places are literally saying, ‘Quality is all that matters.’ If anybody is unhappy, I’d think even they know well enough to be like, I’m just going to keep that to myself.

Whatever The Atlantic is doing, it’s working. In March, the scoop of a lifetime landed in Goldberg’s lap when he was inadvertently added to a Signal chat group in which Trump’s national-security team was planning a military attack on Yemen. (“I feel lucky but not as lucky as Jeffrey Goldberg,” Graydon Carter said at a party this spring for his book launch. “Easiest scoop ever. Fuck!”) In the week after breaking the story, the magazine added about 100,000 new subscribers, and today it has more than 1.3 million subscribers at $80 a pop. The question for its newly expanded team is whether it’s going to mess with The Atlantic’s successful formula or enhance it, now and beyond the Trump era.

This isn’t the first time Goldberg, who declined a request for an interview, has tried to push the magazine in a newsier direction, and over the years he has made comments to colleagues about his ambition to compete with major papers like the Post. During the first Trump administration, The Atlantic hired a handful of reporters from digital media or newspaper backgrounds to cover politics and policy in a bid to expand its digital reach and be more relevant in the daily conversation. These writers included Rosie Gray (from BuzzFeed News), Edward-Isaac Dovere (Politico), Peter Nicholas (the Journal), and Natasha Bertrand (Business Insider). None of these people still work at The Atlantic....

....MUCH MORE 

Over the years we've had some posts that may be of interest. One that comes to mind on the Atlantic is:

More On Truth Decay: Spies, Lies And Journalisming

And a couple on big money journalism:

"The story of Ernest Hemingway’s $187,000 magazine expenses claim"

which itself links to our earlier: 

Why Aren’t Top Journalists Rich?

"Hedge fund strategy built on catastrophes taps a hot new trend"

Parametrics can result is some odd-looking payouts and are susceptible to gaming by those offering the product. More after the jump.

From The Edge, Singapore, June 30:

One of the most successful hedge fund strategies of recent years — insurance-linked securities — is latching on to an old idea whose popularity is suddenly soaring.

Parametric insurance, where policyholders get quick payouts if weather-related metrics are met, used to be the preserve of small businesses and farmers in developing countries. Now, it’s a rapidly growing market luring large corporations across the rich world.

Sebastien Piguet, co-founder and chief insurance officer at Descartes Underwriting, says parametric models are filling a gap left by other types of insurance policies. That’s as climate change and more frequent extreme weather events challenge standard coverage models.

“It’s much more challenging to find capacity for this kind of coverage with traditional insurance,” he said.

Companies using parametrics now include French pharmaceutical firm Sanofi, telecommunications company Liberty Latin America and renewable energy investor Greenbacker Capital Management. The market for such products is estimated to almost double to US$34 billion ($43.29 billion) in the decade through 2033.

It’s a shift that’s caught the attention of ILS investment managers. Insurance-linked securities, which a Preqin ranking listed as the best-performing hedge fund strategy of 2023, have long focused on catastrophe bonds.

Typically issued by insurers and reinsurers, investors in the bonds make money if predefined triggers like wind speed or insured losses aren’t met, and lose money if they are.

In recent years, that model has generated market-beating returns.

Investment funds based on parametric insurance have the potential to beat cat bond returns, according to Rhodri Morris, a portfolio manager at Twelve Securis. The Zurich-based US$8.6 billion alternative investment manager, which specialises in catastrophe bonds, launched the Lumyna-Twelve Capital Parametric ILS Fund together with Lumyna Investments in February.

“We aim to return a couple of percentage points above the cat bond market,” Morris said in an interview.

The fund, which is the first of its kind, has so far attracted about EUR85 million ($127 million) of capital. Morris says the expectation is that it will draw as much as EUR200 million next year.

A key attraction for investors is they can avoid so-called trapped capital, according to Morris. Investors in cat bonds sometimes wait for months — or even years — before loss rates are assessed and payouts settled. Investors in a parametric fund will generally know within days whether an underlying insurance contract has paid out or not.

The Lumyna-Twelve parametric fund has drawn “genuine interest” from investors, Morris said. But they’ve also had questions, and there’s a number of important factors to consider, he said.

“Investors need to understand that you’re giving up liquidity in some part of the portfolio,” Morris said. “But the benefits you’re getting are higher returns and the lack of trapping.”....

....MUCH MORE 

Some posts on parametric insurance:

April 2020
"World Bank pandemic cat bonds & swaps not triggered for payout yet"
I'll recycle the introduction we used a month ago:

"Coronavirus: The World Bank should care that the public does not understand its pandemic bonds"

Although the WHO declaration of "PANDEMIC" was not required for payout you'd think the money would have started flowing right? I mean both of the important triggers tripped, secondary markets have already marked the riskiest tranche down to zip but none of the relatively paltry $320 million has started moving.

As we said during the last Ebola pandemic, these things appear to be designed and structured to not pay out.

Here with some defense is EuroMoney:...

...The 3-year notes mature in July 2020.
For our outro, some more recycling, this time from February [2020]:

World Bank Pandemic Catastrophe Bond Under Pressure As Coronavirus Spreads

I have become convinced these things were designed to NOT pay.
As noted previously:
Reinsurance: "No coronavirus price response from World Bank’s pandemic cat bond yet"
We saw with Ebola that, even after both triggers—1) a minimum 250 victims and 2) the crossing of an international border—were reached, the World Bank's Pandemic Emergency Facility was very reluctant to declare the payout, eliciting some snark from yours truly:
"And if the cross-border contagion is reported on a day ending in a 'Y' all contracts will be null-and-void and coverage denied."
July 2020
Re/Insurance: Chubb Proposes Giant $1.25 Trillion Pandemic Facility
Two quick points:
1) Insuring against pandemics is frightfully complicated meaning lots of opportunity to structure product to ones advantage.
2) Be wary of your friendly neighborhood re/insurance salesman, even if he is as down-home and folksy as that fellow from Omaha.

Much less the verzekering/herverzekering or London or München boys and girls....

November 2021
"COP26: Munich Re calls out global failure to hit $100bn climate finance goal"

Huh.

....As noted in the intro to October 11's Cat Bonds/Reinsurance: "City of Zurich pension to double insurance-linked securities allocation":

The next time Munich Re starts moaning about climate change and how we're all going to die, or at minimum go broke, just remember reinsurance/cat bonds are a for-profit business and that some folks a couple hundred miles southwest of München, who might have access to some very sharp minds in the reinsurance/cat bond business, seem to think this is a profitable place to put some longer term money.
Ditto for Covéa, they seem to think they can make a go of it, come hell or high water.
(a little reinsurance/cat bond wordplay)

October 2023
"Weather derivative market activity soars on belief extremes to increase: Report"

Action, baby, action!
We will be looking for the first reports of the proverbial "dentist from Peoria" (Los Angeles Times, Jan. 21, 1989) stepping up to the betting window....
January 2025
"Why catastrophe bonds are failing to cover disaster damage"
It is a financial contract, read the fine print.
From The Economist...

*** 

“If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.”
-Poker proverb used by Warren Buffet in his 1987 Letter to Shareholders

As an old insurance bigwig (not Mr. B) once said to me, "These things are for writing, not buying

***

Somewhat related (reaching for returns), June 2025:

Ummmmm—Tokenized Real World Assets: Reinsurance Products Targeting 20% And 42% Returns
Grandmother always said "If you are getting more than the risk-free rate of return you are taking on risk somewhere." She was really emphatic about that....

Meanwhile In Britain, James Dyson Is Growing Strawberries (A Lot of strawberries)

From LincolnshireLive, June 28:

How robots are keeping strawberries growing year-round at James Dyson's Lincolnshire farm 
The advanced robots select and pick the ripest fruit and ward off any insect predators

Dyson's 26-acre Lincolnshire glasshouse has produced more than 1,250 tonnes of high-quality British strawberries and is now growing the fruit all year round.

The glasshouse is full of advanced robots which select and pick the ripest fruit through vision sensing, physical manipulation and robotic secateurs. There are other robots on the site which glide on the rails next to the plants and shine UV light on them at night to prevent mould growth.

James Dyson said: "Growing things is rather like making things – I am a manufacturer, and I have approached farming from that point of view. I also believe Britain should grow its own food – it’s important from a food security perspective and also in terms of quality....

....MUCH MORE 

I wonder if he'll re-re-re-domicile back to Singapore, this seems like a natural for the overachieving island. 

October 2020 - Dyson Sells Singapore Penthouse For $46 Million (USD)

It wasn't that long ago (8:34 am PDT, October 23, 2018) that we were posting: 

"Dyson chooses Singapore for first electric car plant"

I like Singapore although it is a bit authoritarian.
The people are bright, usually the highest average I.Q. in the world, sometimes #2 to Hong Kong.
In the case of Singapore the I.Q. thing is especially interesting as their average is higher than that of any of the genetic pools the city-state draws from: the Chinese, Malay and Indian.

As a Malaysian Chinese businessman I know has told me, "We should never have let Singapore get away."

Another back-and-forth with Hong Kong is income/wealth. HK has more billionaires but Singapore has a higher average income.
And then there are the Gurkhas. More after the jump.....

But then he pulled the plug, so to speak, on the car project and now this, from Malaysia's The Star...

We have a few dozen posts on the company and on Sir James. Here's one from 2016:
"James Dyson on 5,126 Vacuums That Didn’t Work— and the One That Finally Did"

Electricity Generation: "US gas-fired turbine wait times as much as seven years; costs up sharply" (GEV)

As noted introducing June 15's "Electricity: "Report Says 130 New Gas-Fired Power Projects Proposed in Texas" (GEV)":

If all these proposals go forward GE Vernova would probably have to buy Siemens' gas turbine business just to keep the backlog to fifteen years or less. 

From S&P Global, May 27 

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Extremely high demand for turbines
  • Costs up 2.5 times in some markets

With demand for natural gas-fired turbines in the US rapidly accelerating amid power demand growth forecasts driven by AI, manufacturing, and electrification, wait times for turbines are anywhere between one and seven years depending on the model, and costs have increased considerably, experts told Platts.

As of February, original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, "are quoting upwards of five to seven years if you are trying to order [a gas-fired turbine] right now," Bobby Noble, senior program manager for Gas Turbine Research and Development at EPRI, formerly known as the Energy Power Research Institute, said.

It does vary and some may be shorter than that, "but the fact is there's a huge buildout in growth occurring," he said.

"Three to four years sounds about right if you are not already in the queue for a turbine," Paul Sotkiewicz, president and founder of consultant E-Cubed Policy Associates, said. Sotkiewicz also served as chief economist of PJM Interconnection's market services division.

"We are seeing this across all the components needed to build a gas-fired power plant," Sotkiewicz said.

Some US regions are increasing gas-fired capacity more than others and right now data center growth is a big factor.

"Gas-fired turbines are one of the prime abilities to increase your capacity, especially on the order of what some of these data centers are looking at," Noble said.

If a data center campus needs a gigawatt-plus of power to meet demand, a two-on-one combined cycle gas turbine facility is very much capable of supplying that sort of need, he said.

"PJM, for sure, is one of those markets," Noble said.

Highlighting interest in PJM, NRG Energy said May 12 the company plans to acquire 13 GW of gas-fired generation capacity, and 6 GW of virtual power plant capacity owned by LS Power Development that have an overall enterprise value of $12 billion.

Acquiring the LS Power portfolio will increase NRG's presence in the US Northeast by 11 GW, with about three-quarters of that capacity in PJM and the remainder is in the ISO New England and New York Independent System Operator markets.

The major OEMs are also reporting solid orders for new gas-fired turbines, up significantly from just a few years ago.

"There is no question that gas turbine demand has clearly increased, especially when you consider that the market for large gas turbines for power generation applications in the United States in 2022 was limited to one -- the lowest total ever reported," Rich Voorberg, president of Siemens Energy, North America, said in an email.

Strong gas-fired turbine demand
"With the gas turbine sales and reservations that we've transacted over the past six months alone, we will add dozens of gas turbines to our operating fleet in North America," Voorberg said.

Orders in the respective business area within Siemens Energy more than doubled worldwide compared to the same quarter in fiscal year 2024, he said.

In Q2, Siemens Gas Services recorded the highest orders in a quarter to date, the company said during its earning call.

In the US, the company has planned gas turbines with a total capacity of 8 GW for data centers in the first half of the year, which includes 2 GW as booked orders and 6 GW as firm reservations....

....MUCH MORE 

Here's more on PJM, February 12:

"Nation's Largest Grid To Fast-Track NatGas Power Plants To Fuel Next AI Trade" (GEV)

"Canada rescinds digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the United States"

This was the tax that led to President Trump breaking off trade discussions last week. (CNN Friday June 27)

From the Government of Canada, Department of Finance, June 29:

News release

June 29, 2025 - Ottawa, Ontario - Department of Finance Canada

Canada’s new government is engaged in complex negotiations on a new economic and security partnership with the United States, focused on getting the best deal for Canadian workers and businesses. Prime Minister Carney has been clear that Canada will take as long as necessary, but no longer, to achieve that deal.

To support those negotiations, the Minister of Finance and National Revenue, the Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, announced today that Canada would rescind the Digital Services Tax (DST) in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States. Consistent with this action, Prime Minister Carney and President Trump have agreed that parties will resume negotiations with a view towards agreeing on a deal by July 21, 2025....

....MUCH MORE 

"Sunrun, Enphase Stocks Fall on Senate Bill Surprise. Why This Solar Company Is Shining" (FSLR; GEV)

From Barron's June 30: 

Sunrun, Enphase Energy and other solar stocks were falling in premarket trading Monday after the latest version of the Senate’s big tax and spending bill delivered a surprise blow to the sector.

The draft bill would phase out tax credits for large-scale wind and solar projects by the end of 2027—earlier than in previous drafts. Projects must now be in service by Dec. 31, 2027 to qualify. The latest version also includes a surprise new tax on projects that use supplies from China, the world’s biggest source of renewable energy equipment.

Enphase Energy fell 4.8% ahead of the open Monday, while Sunrun pointed 4% lower, SolarEdge plunged 7%.

However, it wasn’t all doom and gloom for the industry—shares of First Solar, the largest U.S. solar manufacturer jumped 3.5% in premarket trading. GE Vernova, another clean energy manufacturer, rose 1.1%....

....MORE

Politico titled their story (June 28): 

‘Kill shot’: GOP megabill targets solar, wind projects with new tax

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Senior Iranian Cleric Issues Fatwa Re: President Trump

First up, from an Iranian-American human rights pressure group, the National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI), June 29:

Media Advisory: Grand Ayatollah Issues Fatwa Calling for Murder of President Trump 

Iran-based Shia Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi has issued a signed and sealed Fatwa (religious edict) in response to an Estefta (formal religious query), declaring U.S. President Donald Trump “Mohareb” (an enemy of Allah), and has called on “Muslims of the world” to kill the U.S. president, promising them rewards befitting “warriors of Allah.”

The Fatwa has been released by the office of the Grand Ayatollah and published by Islamic Republic state media, including the government-affiliated ISNA, IRGC-linked Fars News and Tasnim News, and Tehran municipality-run Hamshahri

The family of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic’s founder and first Supreme Leader, has also indirectly endorsed the murder Fatwa, with their news outlet Jamaran publishing and promoting the text.

Text of the Estefta (Formal Religious Query): 
“To blessed Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi, Marja [religious guide] of Shia Muslims of the world,

Over the past few days, U.S. President [Donald Trump] and leaders of the Zionist regime have threatened to assassinate the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] and other religious leaders.

We implore you to declare what the religious edict [and required response] is for threatening the religious guide and leader of Islamic society. And Allah forbid, if such an act is carried out by the American government or anyone else, what would be the responsibility of every Muslim across the world?

May Allah protect and preserve all religious leaders and the Supreme Leader in the shadow of [Imam Mahdi, the 12th Shia Imam and the promised savior in the sect], and remove the threat of the infidels and enemies of Allah’s faith.

[Signed]: A group of believers and Muslims.”

Text of the Fatwa (Religious Edict): 
Anyone who aims to harm the Muslim Ummah [global community of Muslims] and threatens the Supreme Leader or other religious leaders or, Allah forbid, strikes out, is hereby declared Mohareb [enemy of Allah].

Any collaboration with or assistance to them is Haram [forbidden] for Muslims and Islamic states.

It is upon all Muslims across the world to make these enemies regret their words and their wrongdoing, and if harm or hardship befalls them, they will be rewarded as Mojaeh [warriors] in the path of Allah, if Allah wills it.

May Allah protect the Islamic society and hasten the arrival of [Imam Mahdi, the 12th Shia Imam and the promised savior in the sect].

What Does Mohareb Mean? 
Mohareb is the subject or agent that carries out the act of “Moharebeh,” also spelled “Moharibah,” which is widely translated as “enmity against Allah,” or “waging war against Allah” in English.

Surah Al-Ma’idah, Ayat 33 (5:33 Quran) says: “The penalty for those who wage war against Allah and His Messenger and spread corruption on the Earth is death, crucifixion, cutting off their hands and feet on opposite sides, or exile from the land. This [penalty] is a disgrace for them in this world, and they will suffer a tremendous punishment in the Hereafter.”

As per Article 279 of the Islamic Penal Code in effect in Iran, Moharebeh is punishable by death. The charge is regularly used against dissidents.

Additional Notes....
....MUCH MORE

And from the Tehran Times, June 29

Fatwas draw a red line: No tolerance for threats against Ayatollah Khamenei 

TEHRAN – The Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, is more than just a political leader; he is a deeply revered religious figure. As a Marja' al-Taqlid in a position of power, people not only seek his guidance to resolve questions of Islamic law and ethics, but also view him as a central guardian of their faith and its values.

This religious standing of Ayatollah Khamenei is something U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have failed to take into account in the past few weeks, during which he has made several threats of assassination against the Iranian Leader. 

Trump said during Iran’s 12-day war with Israel that he knew where Ayatollah Khamenei was located, but he had decided to refrain from assassinating him “for now”. Israeli media said the U.S. and Israel tried to harm the Leader but could not figure out his location. Trump threatened Ayatollah Khamenei again after the war ended, outraged by his declaration that Iran will never surrender to American politicians and warmongers. 

The U.S. President, meanwhile, appears to believe that any assassination attempt against Ayatollah Khamenei would only trigger a military response from Iran, a price the U.S. military and American forces stationed in West Asia would have to bear. However, there is also a separate price Trump himself would pay, because he has dared to threaten a figure with a massive religious following and profound influence among not only the 200 million Shia Muslims, but also countless more Sunnis who have grown extremely fond of Ayatollah Khamenei for his staunch support of the Palestinian cause in the past 20 months. 

The potential repercussions for Trump if he were to act on his outrageous threats were underscored in a statement released by a prominent Shia cleric on Sunday. Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi, himself a Marja, responded to an inquiry regarding the U.S. president's escalating rhetoric, stating unequivocally that anyone who harms Ayatollah Khamenei should be punished with death.

In a written note, Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi declared: “Any regime or individual threatening the leaders of the Islamic Ummah and acting on those threats qualifies as a Muharib.”

Under Shia Islamic jurisprudence, a “Muharib” is defined as someone who wages armed rebellion, terrorism, violent crimes, or other unlawful acts that spread fear and disorder in society. The prescribed punishment for such offenses is death. 

Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi's remarks are being interpreted as a "Fatwa," a religious edict. Iran’s Ayatollah Nouri Hamedani and Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani have published similar statements seen as Fatwas. 

What is a Fatwa and how serious is it?

A Fatwa is an interpretation of Islamic law issued by a Marja. It is binding for all Muslims, meaning that even if Islamic governments are not able to act on it, individual Muslims should ensure its enforcement. 

A well-known example of states failing to act on a Fatwa, prompting individual Muslims to take matters into their own hands, is the case of Salman Rushdie.

On February 14, 1989, Imam Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, issued a historic Fatwa calling for the execution of Salman Rushdie, the British-Indian author of The Satanic Verses, a novel filled with blasphemy against Prophet Mohammad (PBUH). The fatwa stated: "I inform the proud Muslim people of the world that the author of The Satanic Verses book, which is against Islam, the Prophet, and the Quran, and all those involved in its publication who were aware of its content, are sentenced to death. I call on all zealous Muslims to execute them quickly, wherever they find them."

Rushdie was forced into hiding immediately after the fatwa was issued. He was placed under 24/7 British police protection and lived in safe houses for nearly a decade. In 1989, a bomb exploded at a London hotel where Rushdie was scheduled to speak.

Over three decades after the Fatwa was issued, when Rushdie emerged from hiding and began living more openly, the threat had not faded, contrary to his and the police's expectations. In 2022, Rushdie was stabbed on stage in New York by an attacker allegedly acting on the Fatwa. He has since retreated back into seclusion.

Battery Recycler Redwood Materials Has A New Business: Microgrids

From Fast Company, June 27:

This massive new data center is powered by used EV batteries
A new project from battery recycling startup Redwood Materials and data center builder Crusoe shows that it’s possible to build data centers cheaper and faster while also slashing emissions.

Over the last two months, a first-of-a-kind project has taken shape at an industrial site in Nevada: the world’s largest microgrid built with used EV batteries, designed to power an adjacent data center.

It’s the first of a series of microgrids planned by Redwood Materials, the battery recycling company now valued at more than $5 billion. The company is taking in a quickly-growing volume of used EV batteries—tens of thousands over the last year, and perhaps hundreds of thousands over the next 12 months. Most of those batteries still have enough capacity to have a second life before the materials are recycled. And they could help deal with a major energy challenge: how new data centers can come online quickly and cheaply without straining the grid and significantly adding to climate emissions.

“The amount of batteries coming back that have usable life and that are relatively more cost-efficient to deploy has ramped up dramatically in just the last year or two,” says JB Straubel, CEO of Redwood Materials. The company announced its new energy business arm at an event on June 26.

Straubel, one of Tesla’s cofounders, left the automaker in 2019 to help build a new U.S. supply chain of critical battery materials using the growing pile of battery waste. Last year, the company started commercial production of cathode active material, one key component in batteries, from recycled materials. Its recycling business is already profitable; it generated $200 million in revenue last year. But it also recognized the huge opportunity to put some batteries to work again. 

How EV batteries can find a second life
When a battery is in a car or a truck, “it’s a pretty demanding application,” Straubel says. “You need a lot of power capability. You really want to charge quickly, usually, so you can go to fast charge stations. And you also need a pretty high percent of your overall initial range that you purchased in the car.”

But even when a battery has lost so much capacity that it no longer makes sense for driving, it can still be used to store energy. In that application, charging and discharging can happen slowly. A battery might only have half of its original capacity, but can still reliably support the grid or a microgrid. In some cases, it could be used for years before it’s eventually recycled.

In the new microgrid, on Redwood’s campus near Reno, more than 800 used EV batteries are connected to 20 acres of solar panels. It has enough power to run a new AI data center on the site, built by Crusoe, a company that designs and deploys low-carbon compute infrastructure.

The data center operates fully off the grid, without an external backup. “We still expect [the microgrid] to be very, very reliable,” Straubel says. “In some cases, it might be more reliable, because we have less failure points.” To make it possible to avoid the grid completely, the team built a relatively large amount of solar power and large battery capacity....

....MUCH MORE 

We have a lot of posts on Redwood. One of the more interesting recent ones was:

Battery Recycling: Best-in-Class Redwood Materials 

Apollo's Torsten Sløk On Trump's Tariffs: "'Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us"

File under: Things I did not expect. (it's a big file) 

From The Daily Mail, June 26/27:

Trump has 'outsmarted all of us' admits backpedaling economist who bashed President's bold plan

A world-renowned economist has changed his tune on President Donald Trump's tariffs. 

Torsten Sløk, a chief economist at Apollo Global Management, posted a new note admitting that his initial reaction to the policy may have been wrong. 

'Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us,' he wrote. 

The admission comes just months after Sløk warned the tariffs would be ‘painful’ and economically destabilizing. 

Experts speaking to DailyMail.com warned that Americans should take his note with a grain of salt. 

But now, he's framing the President’s policy as a clever long-game — one that invites global negotiation while increasing federal revenue

In the note, Sløk outlined a potential scenario: the White House could maintain its current tariff rates — 10 percent on most imports, 30 percent on Chinese goods — and give trade partners a year to negotiate with the White House. 

Extending the current 90-day pause on new tariffs, he argued, would give American companies time to plan ahead and could help stabilize markets. 

'This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers,' he added.  

The timing is key. Trump's 90-day pause on new tariffs, announced in April, is set to expire on July 9. 

Without an extension, the tariffs would immediately increase, with billions of dollars worth of products suddenly incurring more taxes.  

But if the President extends the pause but keeps tariffs where they are, Sløk says the policy could offer clarity for companies and leverage in negotiations.

Sløk's sudden, tepid support for the tariffs is an about-face. He initially criticized the import taxes, saying they threatened business stability, Wall Street's record highs, and the stability of US treasury bonds. 

'The short-run effects of a trade war [are] certainly painful,' the economist told Yahoo Finance in February. 

And not everyone is convinced. Neil Saunders, a retail expert at GlobalData, warned that they will mostly impact American consumers. 

'Tariffs, at any level, increase the cost of doing business,' he told DailyMail.com. 'If tariff rates remain at current levels, prices should only increase modestly – although these hikes will come off the back of years of pretty hefty inflation.'....

....MUCH MORE 

"Clear understanding of social connections propels strivers up the social ladder"

Practitioners of power networking, oftentimes fraudsters, seem to know this stuff intuitively.

For the rest of us, a bit of study-turned-into-understanding can go a long way toward making life a little easier.

From Brown University via EurekAlert, June 20:

When it comes to social influence, knowing how people are connected matters more than simply knowing lots of people, found researchers from Brown University’s Carney Institute for Brain Science 

Climbing the social ladder isn’t simply a matter of popularity. Rather, people in positions of influence are particularly adept at forming “maps” of their social connections, which they navigate to become prominent in their social network, new research shows. 

It’s like having a “social superpower,” according to study author Oriel FeldmanHall, an associate professor of cognitive and psychological sciences at Brown University who is affiliated with the University’s Carney Institute for Brain Science

“People vary considerably in how accurately they understand the structure of their communities,” FeldmanHall said. “Our research establishes for the first time that people who excel at mapping out their social network — determining who belongs to which communities and cliques — are the ones who will go on to become the most influential in the social network.”

The National Science Foundation-funded study was published in Science Advances.

Contrary to popular belief, being influential isn’t determined by the number of friends a person has, according to the research team. 

“What matters are your connections to other well-connected peers,” said study author Isabella Aslarus, who conducted the research as a manager in FeldmanHall’s lab. “These more powerful social ties give you a number of benefits that together add up to what we call influence.”

Those benefits can range from being perceived more positively to influencing positive outcomes for others, according to Aslarus, who is now a Ph.D. student in psychology at Stanford University.

“Influential individuals hold sway over others’ actions and are better at spreading information through their networks — a power that’s been harnessed by interventions to reduce bullying and promote public health,” Aslarus said.

Measuring influence....

....MUCH MORE 

 Related: 

February 3, 2023 - Fundraising Lessons From Volodymyr Zelensky Part II: The Lessons 

Worthwhile for anyone who is trying to raise money for virtually any purpose.

This is a repost that seems truer now, after the U.S. alone has spent 1/8 Trillion dollars in cash, armaments and support, than when it was posted.

May 24, 2022 
Earlier we saw what the Ukrainian President actually did: "Fundraising Lessons From Volodymyr Zelensky: Get In Front Of The World Economic Forum.... Ask For $5 Billion.... Per Month", now the lessons that his actions illustrate.

I call it the big ask.

1) You have to talk to the people who can make the decision, anything else is wasting your time while your interlocutor is getting paid. This can be more challenging than it looks.

I prefer to speak directly with a principal but in some cases, say a family office, you want to see if there is an agent of the principal who is trusted to both make the yes decision and cut the check. What you don't want is to pitch the agent who will pitch the person with the money. It doesn't work

2) You have to talk to people who have the money you request. It seems obvious but again it is a waste of your time to ask someone who would blanch at $100k for $100 mil.

And more importantly, getting no's is mentally wearing on a person, so clearing the field of as many negatives as possible is just good psychological hygiene.

3) You have to get the attention of your potential patron. The most efficient way is to already know them i.e. "Hi mom". For more distant degrees of separation (or consanguinity) the most constructive approach is to get referred in. And the way to get referrals is to ask.

And the way to ask is both simple and straightforward: "Who do you know?"

No beating around the bush, no hemming and hawing, just "Who do you know?

And don't allow the person you are asking to "think about it" You want names and you want them now. And amazingly, people will either say "I don't know anyone" or they will give you a name on the spot. And the first couple people they come up with are apt to be both more interested and more financially capable than the referrer is. People don't refer down.

After you get a name or three ask if the referrer minds if you mention who referred you (otherwise it's not a referral) Assume that even if you are told that "I'll make introductions" that you may have to make the initial approach on your own.

4) You have to make you pitch interesting from the perspective of the person you are talking to. Thus, if you've gotten yourself  in front of Mrs. Bigg, of the Philadelphia and Palm Beach Bigg's, and you want a check for something philanthropic while warily eyeing her enormous Persian cat, mention a cat show or Catster Magazine or Cornell's Cat Watch (but maybe not the "Those Annoying Anal Glands" article, at least at first meeting)

And how did you happen to think about cats? Because after getting the referral you thought to check the Palm Beach Post to see if they had any mention of the Mrs. Bigg and saw that the cat that looks like it could eat a small child just took the Blue Ribbon at some cat show and is probably worth a half-million bucks.

note: if rejected, resist the impulse to abscond with the cat and hold it for ransom.

5) Be aware of the difference between a one time meeting and someone you'll have a chance to grow on and charm over time.

6) Do not hustle, manipulate, or lie. That's just bad manners and possibly a felony.

7) If your interest is in, say, honesty in media, sit down and try to think of some billionaire or other who has a similar interest. And maybe if they don't want to be a patron for your project (at the moment) maybe there's a way for you to work on theirs.

Opportunity is everywhere.

And of course be polite, observant and respectful.
July 12, 2023
Weapons Deliveries: "'We're not Amazon': UK defence secretary suggests Ukraine could say thank you more"

 That feeling when you wore your brown shoes to the formal NATO get-together....

https://cdn.wionews.com/sites/default/files/styles/story_page/public/2023/07/12/366271-zelensky-nato-summit.jpg?imwidth=1920 

(Image: @pedrojosecama)  via WION

....and all you can do is wish Boris Johnson was back.

From The Guardian, July 12:
‘We’re not Amazon’: UK defence secretary suggests Ukraine could say thank you more...