Thursday, July 9, 2026

"Singaporean sovereign wealth fund Temasek thinks AI is going to pay off"

From The Register, July 9:

Downer for doomers as conservative investor plans to lift portfolio exposure by 150 percent, and even more once it adds electrification ventures 

Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund Temasek, one of the world’s largest investment houses, intends to massively increase its investment in AI over the next five years – both for its own use and across its portfolio.

Temasek holds over $400 billion in assets and around six percent of those are currently tied up in AI companies, including OpenAI.

At its annual review meeting yesterday, the fund announced it intends to increase its exposure to AI until it reaches 15 percent in 2031. Temasek said it will target five areas: energy and data centres, semiconductors, cloud services providers, foundation models, and AI applications & software infrastructure.

Temasek also sees rising demand for AI as one reason to grow its investment in infrastructure from one percent of its portfolio to five percent.

“We see compelling opportunities in ageing infrastructure and grid modernisation, renewable and nuclear energy, energy storage, and breakthrough decarbonisation technologies, underpinned by rising electrification demand and AI-driven data centre growth,” the fund said.

The fund is eating its own dog food, too, by “embedding AI into how we invest and operate, augmenting human decision-making, sharpening workflows, and enhancing productivity across the firm.”....

....MUCH MORE, including sidebars and The Register's take on the scars from Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX 

Update: Another Congo province has suspected Ebola case as deaths hit 600

From Reuters, July 8/9:

The Democratic Republic of Congo said on Wednesday that suspected ​Ebola cases had been reported in a new province, ‌highlighting the expansion of the ongoing outbreak as deaths hit 600.

The outbreak, declared on May 15, has so far infected 1,759 people across the ​eastern provinces of Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu, ​according to the government's latest situation report published Wednesday ⁠night. 

But that case total does not include two cases in ​Kisangani, the capital of Tshopo province and one of Congo's ​biggest cities, the situation report said....

....MUCH MORE 

Capital Markets:"The US Dollar Consolidates with a Softer Bias as Oil Steadies"

From Marc to Market:

With the fog of war still shrouding the near-term outlook, the US dollar is mostly consolidating with a softer bias against the G10 currencies. Outside of the New Zealand dollar that is still basking in yesterday's rate hike, and the Canadian dollar, which is slightly softer, the other G10 currencies are up less than 0.15% ahead of the North American open. August WTI and September Brent are trading within yesterday’s ranges. 

The FOMC minutes released yesterday failed to tell the market anything it did not already know. Fed officials are divided, which had already been revealed in the “dot plot” that saw nine of the 18 members indicate that they thought at least one hike this year would be appropriate. The UK’s Labour leadership contest formally begins today, though there seems to be little doubt of the outcome. French politics are also in flux after Le Pen says she will run for president next year. Lastly, undeterred by slightly slower consumer inflation, the PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate at a new three-year low....

....MUCH MORE 

News You Can Use: "How to hide from killer drones"

This piece looks at the visual part of the electromagnetic spectrum but the thing that always got me thinking was thermal/infrared. As long as you are alive it is hard to avoid giving off a thermal image so most of the approaches involve cloaking of some sort which at the moment is far from elegant.

From The Economist, July 8:

In the Ukraine war, anti-AI tactics are producing bizarre forms of camouflage  

IN RECENT MONTHS Russian military lorries in Ukraine have begun sporting a striking new colour scheme of vivid black-and-white stripes. As camouflage goes, it is not much use against human observers. But then, it is not intended to fool biological eyes. Its aim is to frustrate the machine-vision systems that are fitted to the Ukrainian drones that zip around battlefields looking for prey.

The stripes are reminiscent of the “dazzle camouflage” used by the Royal Navy in the first world war. But whereas dazzle camouflage was intended to break up a ship’s silhouette, making it difficult to judge its speed and heading, the new variant aims to fool machines into thinking that a lorry is not, in fact, a lorry at all.

Machine vision is based on pattern-matching. A model is trained by exposing it to images, some of which contain lorries (or tanks, or aircraft) and some of which do not. Over zillions of exposures, the computer deduces rules that allow it to identify the things its trainers want to teach it about. Because zebra-striped trucks are unlikely to appear in the training data, says Todd Humphreys, an engineer at the University of Texas at Austin, an AI that encounters one in the real world may not realise what it is looking at.

Computers often rely on very specific features to recognise an object. That leads to a problem known as “brittleness”, in which small variations can cause bizarre misclassifications. “Adversarial examples” designed to exploit the quirks of computer vision, have been around for years. One, developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2017, featured a plastic turtle. Misled by the pattern on its shell, a computer confidently classified it as a rifle. In another project, researchers produced stickers which, when attached to roads, caused a Tesla’s self-driving software to steer into oncoming traffic.

Dr Humphreys says that efforts to counter machine vision in the Ukraine conflict work on the same principle, obscuring expected features with unexpected ones. Parked Russian aircraft have been seen with rows of old tyres on their wings to confuse image-matching software on drones. Some Russian drones also now have dazzle camouflage of their own, presumably to make it harder for Ukrainian interceptor drones to identify them.

These tactics are likely to become more common. Presently most battlefield drones are still flown by a remote human operator, who is unlikely to be fooled by the markings....

....MORE 

 Previously:

July 2020 - "How to hide from a drone – the subtle art of 'ghosting' in the age of surveillance"

Hong Kong and Seattle protesters sometimes use umbrellas but that leads us into another story for another day....

And the outro:

Long time readers know most of this stuff, from the drone-hunting birds of prey to anti-drone-drones with nets to.....well, we've examined a lot of techniques.

If interested see also:
Protest In Hong Kong: The Technology
We've looked at a few of the improvisations of the Hong Kong protesters over the last year. See for example "Hong Kong: After The Cash Machines Were Emptied There Was a Run On The Grocery Stores As The Homemade Catapult Was Rolled Out and.." and more....

Another Way To Fool The Facial Recognition Algos

Thanks (I think, as long as I don't have nightmares) to a reader.
A quick refresher:
https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/600/0*rejFwK35SDEFuq3g.

The algorithms measure various points on the face captured by a camera and compare to known/identified images. Much of the focus is on the eyes: distance between, relationship to other features (apparent cheekbones, philtrum etc), depth of sockets and to other landmarks of facial topology.
Here's an early approach to confusing the cameras:
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/396302866244e3539e54bc5571e27fb512f1e59f/62_0_885_531/master/885.png?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=eefd8e09624ac90c3d07802fa5fe591b

It is based on the distorting effects found in WWII "Dazzle" camouflage:

http://static.squarespace.com/static/514f916de4b04c6ad186e00d/514f94d2e4b05df537e5224e/514f94d2e4b05df537e5267d/1231283416153/DAZZLE.jpg/1000w

The next step isn't so much distorting the apparent nodal points as it is overwhelming the algos with what they think are thousands of facial "hits":

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/f28edd54e33cb391aea9f19448b8ff11ecb5fa54/25_0_663_398/master/663.png?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=b052101fa6e1777fe2c8bfdf7ff395f7

Print that on a shirt and matching billed cap and you end up with some very confused computer programs.

Finally, there's this, from Oddity Central:

Talented Makeup Artist Takes Facial Optical Illusions to a Whole New Level
31-year-old Mimi Choi, a makeup artist from Vancouver, spends hours turning her face into mind-boggling optical illusions that look photoshopped at first glance.
https://media.allure.com/photos/58e4005b82145034c5ad10da/master/pass/Untitled-3.jpg
A former schoolteacher, Choi got into makeup only three years ago, attending classes at Blanche Macdonald, a local beauty school, to learn the basics of the craft. She’s come a long way since then, though, and today she uses her makeup skills to turn her own face into incredible optical illusions.....

And the outro from a 2024 post:

Things are moving pretty quick. From 2013's "Imagining a Drone-Proof City in the Age of Surveillance" To 2016's "There's A Drone Spying On Your Daughter and Using A Shotgun Is Frowned On In Many Locales......What to Do?":

My interest in anti-drone technology was probably intensified when I saw this guy at Economic Policy Journal back in 2012:

"If you're concerned about it, maybe there's a reason we should be flying over you, right?" said Douglas McDonald, the company's director of special operations and president of a local chapter of the unmanned vehicle trade group.... 
We've probably all known the creepazoid military/law enforcement wannabe. They came out of the woodwork after 9/11 and dealing with them was just yucky. It's been a while for me but just seeing that in print reminded me of how loathsome the type is.

 And "Dutch Police Training Eagles to Take Down Drones":

...back to Digg: A Compilation Of Animals Attacking Drones. Although the verticality achieved by the crocodile is impressive, it's probably not practical for police work or home use.
Unless you have a moat.

To 2018's "Disney Rumored To Be Securing The Set Of The Next Star Wars Episode With Anti-Drone Drones"

To 2020's "al-Qaeda's 22 Tips for Avoiding a Drone Attack" 

In an October 18 post on breaking up Google I said we'd have an upcoming post on how to hide from drones. And then I promptly forgot....

A couple recent posts that highlight the problem of drones:

The second article, from IEEE Spectrum focuses like a laser on drone-counter-drone.

And the truly terrifying prospect of  "Omniviolence Is Coming and the World Isn’t Ready"

A wider-angle view from April 2026:

"A Shakeup Is Coming for the Nation-State"

Yes, we've thought about this stuff for quite a while. 

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Iran Responds To U.S. Bombing With Drone Strikes, Threatening Banner

From Iran International, July 9.

Today's liveblog headline:

US launches new strikes on Iran over Hormuz attacks 

Iran army says it launched drone attacks on US bases in Persian Gulf region

Iran's army said on Thursday it launched drone attacks on US military targets in the Persian Gulf region, including a Patriot air defense system in Kuwait, an early warning satellite site in Qatar and US military fuel storage facilities in Bahrain.

The army said the attacks were carried out in response to US attacks on Iran and vowed to continue operations. 

And: 

Banner threatening Trump appears on hotel in Mashhad

A photo shared on social media shows a large banner threatening US President Donald Trump hanging from a hotel building in Mashhad, northeast Iran.

The banner reads “We will kill Trump” in English, with the same message written below in Persian. 

https://i.iranintl.com/images/rdk9umy0/production/a6dba5660b7b1deb7dccb118eb6eae4810c7e446-675x900.jpg?w=500&h=667&q=45&fit=max&auto=format 

....MUCH MORE 

Oil traders have apparently given up trying to interpret events and both WTI and Brent futures are trading flat. 

Euro area 'under strain' as recession risks loom

Here's the video at EuroNews, July 7:

Rolf R. Strauch, Chief Economist at the European Stability Mechanism, said governments "have to create growth" to avoid a possible recession. The global instability poses "high demands" in governments that have to face them with limited fiscal space.

And the transcript via the ESM: 

Rolf Strauch interviewed by Euronews 

Transcript of interview with Rolf Strauch, ESM Chief Economist
Broadcast on Euronews, 7 July 2026
Interviewer: Méabh Mc Mahon

Euronews: This is quite a gloomy outlook you're presenting here. Tell us more about your findings.

From the perspective of the European Stability Mechanism, euro area resilience is coming under strain. We see, on the one hand, that geo-economic and geopolitical risks are rising. You have security threats, you have energy price disruption, you have financial market volatility and fragmentation in the trading system. On the other hand, you see that this leads to higher demands on governments while the fiscal space is shrinking. And that is what we mean by resilience is coming under strain. Governments need to create fiscal buffers, and they need to create growth....

....MUCH MORE 

SemiAnalysis: Anthropic May See A 3Q26 Profit Over $1Billion

They grow up so fast. 

From SemiAnalysis, July 7:

Anthropic 3Q26 Profit Over $1B: The Anthropic IPO Financials Sneak Peak
Anthropic’s Opportunity is Theirs to Lose 

Introduction 

When Dario Amodei left OpenAI to start Anthropic in early 2021, the viral release of ChatGPT was over 18 months away and the commercialization of LLMs was practically zero. Just a few short years later, Anthropic and OpenAI combine for ~$100B of ARR and a clear winner emerged in the profitable monetization of AI models in 2026 as Claude Code took the software development world by storm.

Anthropic confidentially filed for IPO on June 1st. Over 1 month later, equity raises from hyperscalers loom, and a reported OpenAI push out of their own IPO until 2027 has led some to question the ability of the labs to raise. However, Anthropic is the clear clubhouse leader in capturing the B2B market today and is doing so in a profitable manner against an unfocused and money-burning competitor.

With this lead, we expect Anthropic to take advantage of their superior business model and margins to invest in further in new models that help extend their lead and monetization over closed and open source competitors. Anthropic has the ability to truly make OpenAI dance and we see Anthropic as the first $6T company as a base-case possibility if they continue to execute. Pricing power, gross margins, business model, and profitability are all reasons for Anthropic to IPO first and put the impetus on OpenAI to open their financials and raise the necessary capital to compete and fund the massive AI buildout still to come.

We’ve already seen 2 AI Labs IPO this year (Zhipu and Minimax from China), but Anthropic would be the first AI lab of this scale to do so. A confidential filing means there are no public numbers disclosed. Fortunately, the Tokenomics team at SemiAnalysis works to build the financials from the bottom-up by SKU, tier, and customer type. Recently, a WSJ article on Anthropic’s financials confirmed the accuracy of the work our Tokenomics team does across labs and hyperscalers to help investors, corporates, and other stakeholders understand the economics and financials of the AI Ecosystem....

   

Source: WSJ, SemiAnalysis Tokenomics Model 

....MORE (paywall) 

HT: Yahoo Finance video, July 8.

Next month we'll be featuring our "Quality of Earnings" module wherein we look at some of the perils that can deceive the unwary junior account.

"NASA Seeks Volunteers for New Yearlong Simulated Moon, Mars Mission"

From Florida's Space Coast Daily, July 6:

NASA is recruiting research participants for the agency’s next simulated deep space mission.  

Beginning no earlier than August 2027, research volunteers will spend one year living and working in interplanetary environments at the agency’s Johnson Space Center in Houston, operating under isolated conditions expected during crewed missions to the Moon or Red Planet. 

Insights from this new, yearlong experience, called the Moon and Mars Exploration Analog, can be used to help keep astronauts safe and mission-ready during future planetary surface operations. The results also could inform plans for a sustained lunar presence through the agency’s Moon Base and future Artemis missions. 

NASA is looking for applicants for the approximately year-long mission simulation, which will take place in two confined habitats....

....MUCH MORE 

"Indonesia, Singapore say key oil passage will remain 'accessible'"

I should hope so after the comments of Singapore's Foreign Minister a few months ago.*

From Agence France-Presse via MSN, July 6:

Indonesia and Singapore vowed on Monday that the Strait of Malacca, a critical oil transit chokepoint in the region, will remain "accessible" even as Iran imposes fees on ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto discussed the matter with Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in Jakarta as Southeast Asia reels from the effects of oil prices pushed sky-high by the Middle East war.

The Strait of Malacca, surrounded by Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, is the world's largest oil chokepoint in terms of transit volume, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

More than 23 million barrels -- 29 percent of total maritime oil flows -- crossed the strait in the first half of last year, the latest EIA data shows.

In April, Indonesian Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa floated the idea of charging vessels to cross the strait, but later backtracked.

Prabowo said on Monday that Indonesia and Singapore "have an interest in keeping the Strait of Malacca as a free passageway".

"We will continue to coordinate with Malaysia and Thailand so that... the Strait of Malacca will always be open to all, safe and accessible," he said. 

Wong said Singapore and Indonesia were committed to upholding freedom of navigation and rights of passage under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)....

....MORE
*
April 14:

Singapore's Top Diplomat Drops Some F(act)—Bombs On Iran's Position 

On the other hand, April 28: 

Malacca Strait: How one volcano could trigger world chaos

If interested see also April 13's "Chokepoint: U.S. and Indonesia Jointly Announce Major Defense Agreement" (with maps and a laughing orangutan).

Trump muses about new blockade in Strait of Hormuz, taking over Kharg Island, appointing Rubio as Ayatollah

It really does seem that neither the American administration nor the Revolutionary Guards/mullahs are interested in returning to the status quo ante bellum.

If wary but possibly curious reader is so inclined, May 12's So A Sea Captain And A Cambridge Don Came To The Same Realization: "The Hormuz Hypothesis" may be of interest.

Just kidding about Secretary of State Rubio, last I heard he was either being proposed for the Clacton by-election or shopping for extermination-camp-guard tattoos to run for the Maine Senate seat.

From Yahoo Finance, July 8:

'We may just do it without a deal': Trump muses about new blockade in Strait of Hormuz, taking over Kharg Island  

President Trump suggested on Wednesday that the apparent end of the ceasefire deal with Iran could quickly escalate and floated a return to a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the US taking over the crucial Kharg Island oil hub, and new attacks.

"We'll probably hit them hard again tonight," Trump said during an appearance in Turkey alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, adding later, "because they deserve it." 

"We may put it back," the president said of the US blockade of the strait, which previously barred Iranian ships from transiting the waterway.

Trump promised it would "only be a blockade for Iran," but acknowledged that Iran's own attacks on ships and apparent mining efforts remain a challenge for shippers....

....MUCH MORE 

"South Korea’s market chaos puts region on AI meltdown alert"

From Asia Times, July 8:

South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are all riding the same AI wave — and all are heavily exposed to the same potential AI crash  

TOKYO — South Korea has long been one of the world’s best early-warning systems. Its US$1.9 trillion economy is open, large, and sits at the intersection of every major shift in trade, finance and technology. Right now, Seoul, true to form, is flashing red about the risks of betting it all on artificial intelligence.

No major economy has pivoted its core growth engine faster or more abruptly than the one President Lee Jae Myung has led since June 2025. Ask the average Korean on New Year’s Day what defined their economy, and they’d likely have said cars, ships, smartphones, or K-pop. Six months later, the answer is unanimous: AI.

Investors are less sure the bet is paying off. The nearly $5 trillion Kospi index has been swinging like a meme stock — erratic behavior for a top-10 global bourse by market cap. It’s a case of the tail wagging the dog: a rally powered by two or three companies and an unproven technology now dwarfs the country’s GDP by more than 2.5 times. That concentration has become the Lee administration’s problem to manage.

Monday’s 5% Kospi drop barely raised eyebrows by recent standards. The index has hit 12 circuit-breaker halts in its history — six of them this year alone.

The sell-off came despite Samsung Electronics posting a record 1,800% jump in year-on-year profit on nearly double the sales. If anything, the scale of that number unnerved investors further, stoking fears that AI infrastructure spending is running ahead of actual demand for machine-learning tools....

....MUCH MORE 

Capital Markets: "Renewed War Roils Markets"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

There is one overreaching development that is driving the capital markets today. War. Hostilities between the US and Iran have intensified. At the NATO summit in Türkiye, President Trump has said the ceasefire is over. Oil prices have jumped. Benchmark bond yields have risen and stocks sold. The dollar itself is mixed in the G10 but is mostly stronger against emerging market currencies. 

As widely anticipated, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its overnight cash rate target 25 bp to 2.50%. The New Zealand dollar is the strongest among the major currencies (~0.35%) followed closely by the oil-sensitive Norwegian krone. The Japanese yen is the weakest, off about 0.2% to approach last week’s 40-year high. President Trump told expressed frustration with NATO members over not supporting his desire for Greenland and renewed his call to end trade with Spain for its lack of sufficient military spending and its lack of support for the war on Iran. The US runs a trade surplus with Spain....

....MUCH MORE  

"It was the world’s hottest stock market. Now South Korea’s stock market has entered bear-market territory"

From MarketWatch, July 8:

Kospi index in South Korea is stumbling after huge gains 

On June 19, the Kospi peaked at 9385 and was showing a return of 122% for the year. Come July 8 and South Korea’s benchmark index has entered technical bear market after closing down 5% Wednesday, bringing its peak-to-trough slump to 22%.

Why has it fallen? Gravity is the main reason. After almost quadrupling from May 2025, the temptation to book profits had become irresistible.

International investors have been selling for most of the year and Citi’s fund flow insights published July 3 noted outflows of $11.7 billion the week before. Much of the impetus for the continued ascent of Korean stocks came from heavy participation of domestic retail investors — better known as “ants’”— many of whom were using leverage to gain exposure.

The vast majority of index gains were contributed by the two index heavyweights, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, who between them comprise half of the Kospi. Despite stellar earnings from both, concerns have surfaced in recent weeks about the sustainability of the semiconductor cycle and the issuance of up to $29 billion of new SK Hynix equity — via the listing of a depositary receipt on Nasdaq this Friday — has also absorbed a lot of demand. 

There are other factors at play....

....MUCH MORE 

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Japan Warns Korea On U.S. Responses To Memory Dominance

From Korea's Maeil Business, July 8:

"South Korea's Memory Monopoly Will Be Openly Harassed by the United States"... A Warning from the Former No. 1 Nation 

Japanese media warn of semiconductor monopoly risks "It brought down Japan, which was No. 1 in the market in the 1980s" Concerns grow over a repeat of past U.S. trade pressure 

As Samsung Electronics drew market attention by posting record quarterly operating profit, Japanese media outlets from the country that once ranked No. 1 in the world warned about the risks of South Korea's dominant position in the semiconductor industry. Their analysis suggests that South Korea could follow the same path as Japan's semiconductor sector, which was weakened by overt pressure from the United States in the past.

According to Yonhap News Agency on the 8th, Japanese media including Nikkei, Inc. gave prominent coverage to reports that Samsung Electronics posted a preliminary operating profit of 8.94 trillion won in the second quarter, marking a record high for the third consecutive quarter. The outlets said the sharp rise in prices for memory chips used in artificial intelligence (AI) has instead become a new management risk for South Korea's semiconductor industry.

The Nikkei in particular pointed to class-action lawsuits filed by some U.S. consumers against major memory chip makers such as Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron over alleged price inflation. It also identified as a major threat the move by U.S. companies struggling with severe memory shortages to increase their use of Chinese semiconductors from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp (YMTC).

Concerns were also raised about the possibility of intense trade pressure tied to global market share. Citing a South Korean expert, The Nikkei noted that the combined global market share of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix has reached 60 percent. It said the Donald Trump administration could use South Korea's dominance as a pretext to force companies to move production to the United States or make massive investments there. The report recalled how the United States in the 1980s used the U.S.-Japan semiconductor agreement, along with exchange-rate and trade pressure, to bring down Japan, which had dominated the global market....

....MUCH MORE 

As Clausewitz might have said, had he been born 200 years later than he actually was:

Chips are just war by other means. 
I know. It's a paraphrase/misquote. But work with me here. And have some Clausewitz for being so patient:

The Softer Side Of Clausewitz 

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a0/Clausewitz.jpg 

Growing Pains: "Anthropic Leases a Hudson Square Tower Even as It Rations Its Own AI Model"

From Startup Fortune, July 7:

Anthropic is leasing all 466,000 square feet of a 16-story Hudson Square tower and doubling its New York headcount to 1,000, even as it pulls Claude Fable 5 from standard subscriptions over a server capacity crunch. The moves expose a widening gap between how fast Anthropic can scale offices and money and how fast it can scale actual compute. 

Anthropic is taking over an entire 16-story office tower in Lower Manhattan, a 30-fold jump in space, at the same moment it's telling subscribers to pay extra for its newest model because server capacity hasn't kept up.

The New York Times reported on July 7 that Anthropic plans to lease all 466,000 square feet of 330 Hudson Street in the Hudson Square neighborhood, according to people familiar with the deal. That's not a floor or two. It's the whole building, and it dwarfs the roughly 15,500 square feet Anthropic currently occupies at 155 Avenue of the Americas, a space it only signed in 2024. The company has reportedly been shopping for between 250,000 and 450,000 square feet since January, and it landed above the top of that range. Techmeme, citing the Times, put a number on the ambition behind the square footage: Anthropic intends to double its New York headcount to 1,000 people this year, with relocations starting this summer.

You don't take an entire tower on Hudson Street, a corridor better known for Google's sprawling campus and ad-tech offices than for AI labs, unless you're planning to compete for people who'd otherwise take a job at a bank or a hedge fund - or at Google itself. New York has never been the default AI hiring ground. San Francisco is. Anthropic betting this much space on Manhattan is a statement that it wants finance-adjacent talent, policy staff, and enterprise sales teams who have no interest in relocating to the Bay Area.

Here's the part that makes the timing strange. Days before the Hudson Street report, Anthropic told Pro, Max, and Team subscribers that Claude Fable 5 was leaving standard subscription access. As of July 7, using the model means buying metered credits on top of whatever you already pay, at $10 per million input tokens and $50 per million output tokens, according to reporting from BleepingComputer and Windows Report. Anthropic's own explanation was blunt: demand for Fable 5 is running high and is hard to predict, and the company doesn't have the servers to match it. A Claude Code lead engineer said the change is meant to be temporary, with Fable returning to subscriptions once capacity catches up, though no date was given....

....MUCH MORE 

"Palantir’s Alex Karp and Mistral’s Arthur Mensch agree: AI lock-in is coming for enterprises"

From The New Stack, July 6:

Palantir's Alex Karp and Mistral's Arthur Mensch are making the same case from different angles: Don't let closed AI providers control your data and deployment.  

Palantir CEO Alex Karp went on CNBC’s Squawk Box last week to discuss a new partnership with Nvidia to deploy open-weight AI models in sovereign government environments. But viewers got a nearly 20-minute broadside against the entire frontier AI model industry, calling it “effing insane” and accusing companies like OpenAI and Anthropic of overcharging enterprises while harvesting their proprietary data.

Days later, Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch made a strikingly similar case on LinkedIn, warning that closed AI providers are gaining “immense leverage” over enterprise customers as organizations connect proprietary workflows to hosted models. He suggests open-weight models, open data systems, and enterprises building their own training flywheels.

The two executives are approaching this from opposite ends of the market, yet their convergence on the same message within the same week underscores architectural control.

Two pitches, one argument 
Karp runs a company that sells an application and ontology layer designed to sit between enterprises and the models. The Palantir-Nvidia deal pairs Nvidia’s open Nemotron models with Palantir’s Sovereign AI Operating System, built on AIP, Foundry, Ontology, and Apollo, enabling government agencies and critical infrastructure operators to deploy, fine-tune, and audit AI models within their own air-gapped environments.

When CNBC’s Becky Quick told Karp he sounded angry, he pushed back, saying, “This is the voice of American business that is being channeled through me,” and urged the panelists to call any CEO privately to verify....

....MUCH MORE 

Not exactly Churchill and the British Lion's roar but you take what you get. 

The humble and lovable Winston addressing the houses of Parliament that had gathered to honor his eightieth birthday:

‘I was very glad that Mr Attlee described my speeches in the war as expressing
the will not only of Parliament but of the whole nation. Their will was resolute
and remorseless and, as it proved, unconquerable. It fell to me to express it, and
if I found the right words you must remember that I have always earned my 
living by my pen and by my tongue. It was a nation and race dwelling all round 
the globe that had the lion heart. I had the luck to be called upon to give the roar.’
 

What Fresh Hell Is This?*: "Why GE Vernova, Caterpillar Stocks Are Getting Crushed" (GEV; CAT)

*As noted in the outro from March 2020's "What Fresh Hell Is This? "Windows 10 could start bullying people into using a Microsoft account to install" (MSFT; EVIL)": 
When Dorothy Parker used the first half of the headline she meant it. See after the jump....

From Barron's, 2:24 pm EDT / Original July 07, 2026, 10:44 am EDT, July 7: 

GE Vernova GEV -8.82% and other power generation equipment stocks— Caterpillar CAT -5.31% and Cummins —were taking a hit Tuesday after a downgrade of a competitor. The size of the Vernova move, however, shows just how nervous investors are about the AI trade

In midday trading, shares of GE Vernova were off 9.9% at $1,038. Caterpillar and Cummins were both down—5.5% and 4.4%, respectively.

Cat announced it is acquiring mining services provider Skycatch, but that shouldn’t worry investors. And nothing of note is going on with Cummins. As for Vernova, there aren’t downgrades from Wall Steet analysts or updates from the company to blame for the drop.

The culprit is a downgrade of Siemens Energy, a German-based rival.

On Monday, Barclays downgraded Siemens Energy to Sell from Hold, according to FactSet. Barron’s hasn’t seen a copy of the report yet. The firm’s price target went up to €130 from €110.

The downgrade sent Siemens Energy down 7.7% in overseas trading.

A downgrade with the share price moving up tells investors what has been going on.

Despite the dip, Siemens Energy is up 31% this year and 66% over the past 12 months. GE Vernova is up 58% this year and 95% over the past 12 months.

Gains have left GE Vernova and Siemens Energy trading for about 40 and 28 times earnings expected over the coming 12 months, respectively.....

....MUCH MORE 

It's on days like this that knowing the business underlying the stock is booking sales and earnings and cash flow is so important as a brake on emotional mayhem.

And Dorothy? 

...When Dorothy Parker used the line I purloined as our intro, she...was...not...kidding.
From Quote Investigator:
...the testimony of journalist Vincent Sheean who was Parker’s friend: 1
“When it came time to leave the apartment to get a taxi, you could see this look of resolution come on her face,” he said. “Her chin would go up and her shoulders would go back; she would almost be fighting back fear and tears, as if to say to the world, ‘Do your worst; I’ll make it home all right.’ If the doorbell rang in her apartment, she would say, ‘What fresh hell can this be?’—and it wasn’t funny; she meant it.
Quote Investigator has earlier uses by other people but the Parker is the one I knew of.
Additionally, Quora has a finance angle in one of their usages:
Of note, the quote “What fresh hell is this” is used in Vanity Fair, Volumes 43-45, Issue 6, page 41 - Condé Nast, 1935, article.

“And so the doctor groaned and cursed as he awoke to the persistent ringing of the telephone beside his bed. He looked at his watch and noted that it was three a. m., before he picked up the receiver. "What fresh hell is this, George?" said Dr. Bonnard to the night clerk. "Can't tell you, Doc. Old man in 607 says he must have a doctor right away. Name is Fred Warren and he comes from Stapleton, Staten Island." "Some fat Yankee stock broker who thinks that fifteen-mile wind outside his window is another hurricane ...”

Fat Yankee stockbrokers via Google books.
Ms Parker's first husband, Edward Pond Parker II was a stockbroker.
Her first published poem was in Vanity Fair
On the day of her birth there were four active hurricanes in the Atlantic including the 1893 New York Hurricane which was skimming the New Jersey coast as she was being born on Ocean Avenue, Long Branch NJ. 
Weird.
 
Also at the New York Post: 

Again, that was written in March 2020. Remember March 2020? 

There, I don't feel quite as crabby about the Teutonic bastards at Siemens Energy. 

"China's DeepSeek Developing Its Own AI Chip, Sources Say"

A Reuters exclusive via US News & World Report, July 7:

Chinese startup DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip, according to three people familiar ⁠with ⁠the matter, a push that could reduce its reliance ⁠on Nvidia and Huawei chips, which it has depended on to train and run its globally popular models.

The chip is designed ​for inference — the stage of AI computing in which a trained model generates responses for users — rather than for training new models, the sources said.

If successful, DeepSeek's expansion into semiconductor development would mark ‌a major strategic shift for a company widely hailed ‌in China as the country's AI champion, potentially adding to challenges faced by Chinese tech giant Huawei.

DeepSeek rose to global fame more than a year ago after releasing two highly efficient AI ⁠models that went viral ⁠worldwide, surprising many in Silicon Valley and Washington.

The company has long been known for emphasizing AI model breakthroughs ​rather than commercializing its technology.

Although Huawei's offerings still lag Nvidia's most advanced chips by a wide margin, a U.S. ban on their exports to China has helped Huawei gain around half of the $50 billion domestic AI chip market, supplying DeepSeek and several other leading industry players.

However, Huawei's hold on the market is already weakening as tech rivals Alibaba and Baidu develop their own AI chips and gain market share.

DeepSeek's ​effort to join that race remains at an early stage, with the company reaching out to external partners and holding discussions with chip-design, foundry and memory companies, ⁠the ⁠three sources said. The effort began about ⁠a year ago, one of the people ​said.

The Hangzhou-based company has also increased hiring of chip-design engineers in recent months, but recruitment has been done privately without job postings on public hiring ​platforms, two of the sources said.

All three people declined ⁠to be identified because the information is not public. Despite becoming a standard-bearer of China's AI ambitions, DeepSeek has kept a low profile. The company did not respond to a request for comment.

FOLLOWING GLOBAL TRENDS....

....MUCH MORE 

Also at Reuters, July 7: 

Beijing is looking at curbing overseas access to China's top AI models, sources say 

Earlier today:

"Frontiers of compute: The technologies to reduce AI inference costs"—McKinsey 

Capital Markets: "Struck Qatari Ship Underpins Oil and Gas Prices, While Strong Samsung Earnings Fail to Stem Chip and AI Profit-Taking"

From Marc to Market:

The fragility of the ceasefire in the Middle East was driven home today by the strike on a Qatari LNG ship in the Strait of Hormuz today. Oil and gas prices are higher. Samsung earnings failed to deter profit-taking, which weighed on chip and AI equity names. Still, the South Korean wan jumped 1% to a two-week high as SK Hynix prepares to sell American depository receipts (~$28 bln). The company has said it intends to repatriate some of the funds raised. Japan’s 30-year bond auction drew the highest demand in seven years, though yields recovered from the initial decline. Hong Kong launched a gold clearing and settlement facility today. 

The US dollar is firmer against the G10 currencies but the Japanese yen. It is straddling the JPY162 level in the European morning, where options for $2.2 bln expire later today. Germany reported a 0.9% rise in May industrial output, which was well above expectations and matches the largest increase since March 2025. Still the euro is trading quietly lower. The NATO conference in Türkiye will attract attention. Meanwhile, the market awaits word from the French court whether Le Pen can run in next year's presidential contest. And the $119 bln coupon auctions this week by the US Treasury kick-off with the $58 bln sale of three-year notes today....

....MUCH MORE  

"Frontiers of compute: The technologies to reduce AI inference costs"—McKinsey

The cost of inference has dropped by over 99.5% in the last three or four years while the price to the end user definitely has not fallen by that much and in fact all-in costs have actually risen. That gap is the opportunity China is focused on.

From McKinsey & Company, June 25:

AI’s next breakthrough may not be a smarter model but a cheaper token

The race to establish infrastructure for AI is driving one of the most significant capital mobilizations in history. In 2026, the four leading hyperscalers—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—are collectively committing over $700 billion in combined capital expenditure, with a substantial majority directed at AI infrastructure. This figure would have been difficult to contemplate just three years ago. The investments span data center construction, accelerator procurement, and networking buildout on a massive scale, underscoring how compute has become a strategic asset. The new infrastructure is creating extraordinary and sustained demand across the entire semiconductor value chain for chips and other components that enable AI processes.

Two of the most important AI processes are training and inference. Training—either one-time or periodic—is the computationally intensive process of building a model by exposing it to large data sets. Inference is the ongoing process of running a trained model to respond to user queries. A single large language model (LLM),1 once trained, can be queried billions of times per day. The cost of each query is typically small, but it compounds at scale. Historically, training has accounted for most AI compute spending, but the balance is now shifting toward inference.

This dynamic has brought a once-theoretical question to the forefront: How can AI inference be made economically sustainable at the scale demanded by enterprise and consumer applications? Furthermore, how can the energy demand of AI computing be met or reduced? These questions underscore the significant pressures affecting the supply side of the AI economics equation and contributing to spiking AI costs.

Given the magnitude of efficiency gains required, no single breakthrough is likely to deliver the step change needed to achieve positive margins while maintaining frontier-model performance. Instead, meaningful progress will depend on a coordinated wave of innovation across the entire supply chain—from software-level model optimization to advances in silicon architecture, advanced packaging, memory systems, and optical interconnects.

We evaluated 13 of the most promising technology levers related to AI computing and evaluated their potential to reduce inference costs at scale. We also examined two other factors—architecture evolution and chip development timelines—that may affect how quickly and thoroughly companies can reduce inference costs, as well as new compute paradigms that might become an option in 2030 or later.

AI infrastructure is changing fast. In this article, we highlight the technologies most likely to shape AI inference economics and the implications for technologists, investors, and business leaders along the entire supply chain. The discussion that follows is necessarily technical at times because many of the biggest cost-reduction opportunities will come from trade-offs deep within the compute stack....

....MUCH MORE 

If for no other reason than to avoid reinventing the wheel, the challenge of thriving in a deflationary environment means someone (yours truly) might have to dust off the economic history books for the period 1873 to 1913 to see how those folks did it.

"Woman suspected in Monaco bombing found shot dead near Kyiv, report says "

From Reuters via Global Banking & Finance Review, July 7: 

Ukrainian Woman, Monaco Bombing Suspect, Found Dead Near Kyiv — Report
Details Emerge in High-Profile Bombing Case
Discovery of the Suspect's Body 

July 7 (Reuters) - The body of a Ukrainian woman suspected of carrying out a bomb attack that targeted a wealthy Ukrainian-born businessman in Monaco last week was found near Ukraine's capital Kyiv, Ukrainska Pravda reported on Tuesday.

Citing sources in law enforcement, the Ukrainian news outlet said the woman had been shot and her body was found close to 11 p.m. local time (2000 GMT) on Monday....

....MUCH MORE 

Norway's Coastal Highway: "Inside the world’s [new] deepest and longest subsea road tunnel"

From MIT's Technology Review, June 22:

Norway’s Rogfast is an exceptional engineering feat, opening a route for drivers deep below the North Sea. We went down to see it. 

It’s cold, it’s very, very noisy, and—if I can be quite honest with you—I’m not feeling super relaxed.

I’m currently around 300 meters, or 1,000 feet, beneath the North Sea, in a dark, dank cave. It smells weird. And I am increasingly aware of the pressure from millions of tons of seawater just above my head, pushing down with a force of more than 500 pounds per square inch. Picture a baby rhino standing on a postage stamp. 

Only fabulous engineering is keeping me from being crushed, drowned, disappeared. My safety goggles are foggy.

Just a few hundred meters away, someone is about to blow up a giant rock wall. Luckily, earlier that day I was given a full safety briefing, and I’ve got a special hard hat on. “Don’t worry—if you don’t make it, we’ll have your stuff sent back to your office,” geologist Anne-Merete Gilje tells me, straight-faced. Ah, Norwegian humor.

“It’s kind of a lifestyle. You have to be a little bit crazy to work underground all the time.” —Niclas Brusehed, tunnel foreman, Implenia

I’m in this odd situation under the iconic fjords of Norway to visit what will soon become the world’s longest and deepest subsea road tunnel, called Rogfast (short for “Rogaland Fixed Link”). I want to understand how you make something as audacious as a 26.7-kilometer (16.6-mile) highway that sits 390 meters (1,280 feet) below the sea at its deepest point. And also—at a time when it can feel hard to get anything done, especially in the US—to reassure myself that ambitious engineering is still possible. That we can still make things. 

The Norwegians already have the world’s longest subsea tunnel, the 14.4-kilometer Ryfylke, though Rogfast will dwarf it. Their expertise has attracted attention from Japan, Spain, Morocco, and even a number of US states, whose representatives were due to visit the site in May, just weeks after I went. They, too, want to know how Norway does it. 

The answer: tons of explosives. 

The entire endeavor feels like an obstinate refusal to give in to physics and geology. “It’s always exciting,” Niclas Brusehed, a tunnel foreman at Implenia, a Swiss firm involved in the project, tells me. “Every blast creates a new world.” There’s not just the blasting of the tunnel itself—although that is an epic project on its own—but an immense logistics challenge involving huge ventilation shafts, extreme pressure, underground roundabouts, and the complex Norwegian geology. Oh, and the water. So much water.  

“This is the longest continuous blast on the sea,” says John Olaf Østerhus, assistant project manager at Implenia. “Never been done before. We can’t buy a book to see how we do this.” 

All right, time to fish my phone out of my safety suit—don’t want to forget this.

On another planet 
Arriving at the rock face where the tunnel hits seabed feels like being on the moon. It’s a huge slab of stone at the end of a long, dark, wet, wide passageway that’s lit (barely) by electric lights. Giant vehicles carting tons of rocks rumble past periodically, and we pull to the side of the road to let them by....

....MUCH MORE 

Previously:

September 2, 2018 (via the internet archive, the picture links have rotted):

Infrastructure: "Norway’s $47 Billion Coastal Highway"

From The B1M:
[This article was originally published on 22 August 2018. References were corrected on 31 August 2018]
NORWAY'S western coast is home to some of the most dramatic landscapes on earth.
Carved by glaciers throughout the ages, some of these fjords stretch for 200 kilometres inland and are over a kilometre deep.

The current convoluted travel route through and around this terrain takes you along Norway’s 1,100 kilometre, 683 mile, E39 highway - a road with a total journey time of 21 hours.

Now, the Norwegian government are working to improve access to services and residential and labour markets across the country’s western regions by embarking on the largest infrastructure project in the nation’s history.

The E39 runs between, Kristiansand in the far south of the country and Trondheim in the north. The route navigates its way across the fjord network and features no fewer than seven ferry crossings.
Above: Norway is proposing to remove all ferry crossings on the E39 highway in order to better connect the region
The new coastal highway project aims to eliminate the need for ferry services altogether by building a series of bridges and tunnels across, through and under the landscape.

With many of the fjords along the route being too wide or too deep for conventional infrastructure to cross, innovative new solutions are being investigated by the Norwegian Public Roads Administration.

Rogfast is the first in a series of crossings that will link the E39, connecting Stavanger and Haugesund via a 27 kilometre, 16 mile under sea tunnel.
Above: Rogfast will be the longest undersea road tunnel in the world
(image courtesy of the Norwegian Public Road Administration, Norconsult A/S and Baezeni Co., Ltd). 
This structure will reach depths of up to 390 metres below sea level, making it the deepest as well as the longest undersea road tunnel in the world.

The Rogfast project will in fact consist of two tunnels connected every 250 metres with emergency exits. Each tunnel will have a lay-by at 500 metre intervals, along with telephone and surveillance cameras along the route.

The tunnel will also feature a mid-route intersection with the island municipality of Kvitsøy creating an undersea tunnel junction and connecting the island with the Norwegian mainland.
Above: An undersea junction will connect the island of Kvitsøy to the mainland for for the first time (image courtesy of the Norwegian Public Roads Administration, Norconsult A/S and Baezeni Co., Ltd). 
With work begun in 2018, this element of the project is set to be completed by 2026 at a cost of USD $2BN.
While the Rogfast works are already underway, the scale of some other fjords is presenting the project team with extreme engineering challenges.
Bjornafjord - located to the south of Bergen - stands 5 kilometres wide, and reaches depths of 600 metres.
Above: A floating bridge has been proposed to cross the Bjornafjord 
(image courtesy of the Norwegian Public Roads Administration, Vianova PT A/S and Baezeni Co., Ltd)
To cross this challenging stretch of water, a proposal has been put forward for a floating bridge, anchored to the shore at both ends.

The Sulafjord crossing has seen two possible solutions put forward.
The first is for a three tower suspension bridge, with two of the bridges’ towers anchored on land and the third central tower anchored to the seafloor, some 400 metres below the water line.
Above and Below: The Sulafjord could be crossed by a three tower suspension bridge or by a floating tunnel tethered to the seafloor
 ( images courtesy of the Norwegian Public Roads Administration, Vianova PT A/S and Baezeni Co., Ltd)
An alternative proposal for a “submerged floating tunnel” would see two interconnected tubes running side by side tethered to the seabed using high strength cables.

Crossing the Romsdalsfjord will require a 16 kilometre undersea tunnel, much like the Rogfast project, from Alesund to Midsund - followed by a 2 kilometre suspension bridge connecting onto Molde....MUCH MORE

Monday, July 6, 2026

A Deeper Dive Into Samsung's Operating Profit Forecast

The number, $58.7B USD converted  is larger than either Nvidia's or Apple's making it the world's largest tech co. quarterly operating profit.

From Reuters, July 6:

Samsung flags 19-fold jump in profit, but shares slump on jitters AI boom may stall 

  • Samsung posts third straight record quarterly operating profit, beating estimates
  • AI demand continues to drive higher DRAM and NAND prices
  • Earnings top expectations despite hefty chip worker bonus provisions, analysts say
  • Shares fall as much as 7.9% following steep rise this year
  • Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) on Tuesday flagged a 19-fold jump ​in second-quarter operating profit from a year earlier, surpassing its combined earnings over the past three years, but its shares slid as the results failed ‌to ease concerns about the durability of the AI-driven chip boom.

    The world's largest memory chipmaker estimated April-June operating profit at 89.4 trillion won ($58.44 billion), beating an LSEG SmartEstimate of 87.3 trillion won, according to a regulatory filing. It reported a profit of 4.7 trillion won a year earlier. Revenue would likely rise 129% to 171 trillion won from a year earlier, it said. 

    Samsung shares nevertheless dropped as much as 7.9% ​in morning trade, while rival SK Hynix's shares fell as much as 7.3%, dragging the benchmark KOSPI (.KS11) down 6%. 

    Analysts attributed the stock's weakness to some lofty market ​expectations that profit, spurred by record memory chip prices, could exceed 90 trillion won even after factoring in provisions for staff bonuses, and ⁠worries that the rollout of AI data centres may stall. 

    "Samsung's strong earnings were widely expected and had largely been priced in after its shares rallied ahead of the results," ​said Albert Yong, a managing partner at Petra Capital Management who owns Samsung stock.
    "Investors remain concerned about the sustainability of the AI boom and the risk of slower AI infrastructure spending ​by major U.S. technology firms."

    Memory chip prices continued to climb during the quarter as AI spending broadened beyond high-bandwidth memory (HBM) into conventional DRAM and NAND products. 
    Samsung's profit surged even as it set aside funds for sizeable bonuses to its semiconductor workers, as agreed in a wage deal in May linking their pay to operating profit. 
    "Samsung posted better-than-expected earnings despite bonus-related provisions, as memory prices rose sharply," said Lee Min-hee, an analyst ​at BNK Investment & Securities.
    Without those provisions, its operating profit would likely have exceeded 100 trillion won, analysts said. 
    Jeff Kim, head of research at Seoul-based KB Securities-Jefferies, said the memory ​chip shortage will deepen this year and next year, as capacity growth would be limited while demand would remain strong. 
    "Samsung’s profit will continue to grow sequentially in the third quarter and fourth quarter. The ‌key is ⁠how sharply they will grow," he said. 
    Analysts said rapid growth in HBM production has tightened supply of conventional memory products used in smartphones, PCs and enterprise servers, further supporting prices. 
    Citi Research last week said average selling prices for DRAM and NAND rose 44% and 53% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, in the second quarter....
    ....MUCH MORE 

    Memory: "Samsung Electronics sees record preliminary 2Q profit but shares fall" (005930.krx)

    The stock is down 27,000 won (-8.48%).

     

    TradingView 

    It's had a good year though, up 366% over the twelve months. 

    From CNBC, July 6:

    Samsung Electronics on Tuesday reported preliminary second-quarter operating profit of 89.4 trillion won ($58.4 billion), versus 57.2 trillion won in the prior period.

    Operating profit from the same period a year earlier was 4.7 trillion won.

    Samsung shares traded nearly 5% lower at Tuesday’s open.

    The tech giant reported revenue for the April-to-June period of 171 trillion won, up from 133.9 trillion won in the previous quarter.

    The results include deducted one-off expenses for employee bonus provisions following recent labor negotiations, according to analysts....

    ....MORE 

    Thunder Out Of Korea: Samsung Will Be Releasing Their Preliminary Earnings Estimates

    From Reuters, July 5/6:

    Samsung likely to post 18-fold jump in profit on surging AI demand for memory 

    • Q2 profit seen hitting third straight record high
    • Memory shortage expected to persist into next year
    • Workers' bonuses could come in higher than expected, analysts say
    • Potential AI infrastructure delays pose biggest risk, analysts say
    • Rising memory prices squeeze mobile business margin 

    Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), is likely to estimate that its operating profit jumped about 18-fold ​to another record high from a year earlier in the second quarter, as AI growth continues to strain memory supply and push chip prices ‌higher.

    On Tuesday, the world's largest memory chipmaker by sales is likely to flag an operating profit of 86 trillion won ($56.35 billion) for the April to June quarter, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate based on forecasts from 30 analysts, weighted toward those with the best track records. 

    Up from 4.7 trillion won a year earlier, this would mark a third consecutive quarter of record operating profit for ​Samsung, reflecting a prolonged memory shortage, as booming demand for AI inference infrastructure continues to outpace supply growth from global memory manufacturers.
     
    Analysts expect the memory ​market to remain undersupplied at least through next year.
    The robust growth has been driven not only by high-bandwidth memory (HBM), but also by ⁠stronger demand for conventional DRAM and NAND products as AI applications, particularly agentic AI, expand into a broader range of computing workloads.
     
    Unlike earlier AI applications focused mainly ​on training large models, agentic AI systems perform more complex, multi-step tasks that require additional memory for server processors and greater storage capacity to retain and retrieve data during ​inference, analysts said....
    ....MUCH MORE 

    What on Earth Is OpenAI Doing? (Sam)

    Two from The Guardian. First up, the background, April 9:

    OpenAI shelves Stargate UK in blow to Britain’s AI ambitions 
    Artificial intelligence company cites high energy costs and regulation for putting landmark project on hold

    OpenAI has put on hold plans for a landmark UK investment citing high energy costs and regulation, in a blow to the government which has put AI at the centre of its growth strategy.

    Stargate UK was a part of the UK-US AI deal announced last September, in which US companies appeared to commit £31bn to the UK’s tech sector, part of a larger series of investments intended to “mainline AI” into the British economy....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    After the Guardian did some digging it now appears that OpenAI never intended to build the data center.

    July 4:

    OpenAI’s apparent failure to visit key site raises questions over UK investment
    Exclusive: £20bn of ‘potential’ £30bn AI investment touted by UK ministers appears to have been hypothetical 

    It was to be the biggest undertaking in Britain for OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT. Stargate UK – a multibillion-pound UK datacentre project – would represent “a major step forward in the US-UK technology partnership”.

    But the plans were paused in April, with an OpenAI spokesperson citing concerns over regulation and high energy costs.

    Now the Guardian can reveal that OpenAI does not appear to have visited one of Stargate UK’s key sites – and that £20bn of the “potential” £30bn in investment touted by the UK government appears to have been totally hypothetical.

    The findings raise questions about one of the most-hyped UK AI developments, and suggest a centrepiece of US-UK AI cooperation was in fact little more than a press release....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    As readers who have been with us for a while already know (and are probably getting tired of hearing) I'm more than a bit concerned by the actions of OpenAI and their enabler. SoftBank. 

    We may have to institute a portfolio rule forbidding companies whose names are spelled in CamelCase
    [or more specifically in coding, PascalCase]

    A previous example: "WeWork Thinks The Unthinkable: Changes in Governance Structure (WEE)

    See also: CreditWatch.

    AI: A Troubling Trend Emerges

    “Mr Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: 'Once is happenstance.
    Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action'.”

    —Auric Goldfinger, Goldfinger

    First up, the New York Times, June 5:

    SpaceX Has $30 Billion Deal to Provide Google With A.I. Computing Power
    Elon Musk’s rocket company said Google would pay it $920 million a month, as it prepared for its initial public offering. 

    And from The Register, July 2:

    SoftBank enters the rent-a-GPU race as America looks for support for AI training
    Japanese giant needs to find some use for that 10 GW US server farm it is building 

    SoftBank is set to get into the neocloud business in America, providing resources to hyperscalers and other customers seeking a platform on which to carry out their AI training.

    The Japan-based tech investment giant says it will establish a new company called SB Neo, Inc to operate its neocloud business in the US, and expects to start operations in fiscal 2027 (ending March 31, 2028).

    In actual fact, ownership of the nascent biz will be split, with 51 percent in the hands of SoftBank Corp, while 49 percent is owned by SoftBank Group Corp. SB Neo will be a consolidated subsidiary of SoftBank Corp, which is itself 40 percent owned by SoftBank Group Corp. All perfectly clear?

    And from SemiAnalysis, also July 2:

    Meta Compute: Everyone Wants To Be A Neocloud

    ....With Bloomberg headlines suggesting Meta could become a Neocloud, the market’s reaction was immediate: aggressive sell-off of Neoclouds like Coreweave & Nebius, and debates of “overcapacity” coming back. Let’s set the record straight – we believe that both takes are erroneous and that Meta’s datacenter & compute procurement will accelerate, not slow down. Capex in 2027 will be shockingly high. In just the first six months of the year, Meta has contracted over 5GW of capacity across Cloud & Colo, and that doesn’t even include all their accelerating self-build activity. Everything is computer and everything is a neocloud....

    I don't like disagreeing with SemiAnalysis so I'll just say this move among big, big companies to lease out giant chunks of their compute, and axiomatically taking the leases onto their balance sheets as an asset is enough to drive me back to Graham & Dodd, and in the case of SoftBank to Howard Schilit's Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks & Fraud in Financial Reports.

    As we await developments a flashback to June 2019:

    "Something is not quite right with SoftBank"
    Additionally, SoftBank investee WeWork was out looking for  a few billion dollar line of credit.
    Shades of another disruptor, Sam Insull, leverage at the holding company level, leverage at the operating company level, leverage all the way down...
    Sam Insull's story is interesting and possibly instructive. He was a Chicago guy.