Keeping in mind the simple truth that countries do not have friends.
Officials
in Berlin have started mapping vulnerabilities in US supply chains to
identify points where Germany and its European Union partners could
apply pressure, according to people familiar with the effort. Their goal
is to create a consensus among EU nations on how they can use their
leverage, if and when they get drawn into another dispute with the White
House.
The
initial findings suggest ways to target the massive US tech firms with
close ties to the White House, the officials said. Other options could
aim for the AI investment boom that has helped to drive US stocks to
record highs this year or push up drug prices for American voters, an
issue the president has already shown he’s sensitive to.
“By
sticking together, Europeans can prove to Trump that they are prepared
to match him,” said Tobias Gehrke, an expert on economic statecraft at
the European Council of Foreign Relations. “If Europe can credibly
demonstrate that intimidation tactics don’t work, this could, over time,
weaken those forces in Washington that support Trump.”
The
German exercise is part of an urgent European effort to build a
geopolitical framework to manage the increasing hostility of the US and
the growing power of China. Yet it’s also a process that is fraught with
jeopardy: across the EU, senior officials are painfully aware of how
exposed their companies would be should reprisals with the US spiral out
of control.
The
officials cautioned that no decisions have been taken on activating the
plans and their preferred outcome is to rebuild relations with the
White House.
A
spokeswoman for the German chancellery declined to comment; a
spokesperson from the economy ministry said that trade is increasingly
being used to advance nations’ own interests.
“The
federal government is closely monitoring these developments with a
focus on critical supply chains and dependencies,” the spokesperson told
Bloomberg. “It considers not only its own dependencies but also those
of countries of origin and countries that import goods from Germany and
the European Union.”
Tensions
between the US and Europe will come to the fore on Thursday when Group
of Seven foreign ministers gather near Paris to discuss the fallout from
the American-Israeli attack on Iran which has triggered a surge in
energy prices around the world.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
told German lawmakers last week that Europe needs to learn that the
dependencies that emerged during the high period of globalization aren’t
all on their side. Other nations rely on the EU for critical supplies,
he said, and the bloc should be ready to use that leverage.
“We are identifying our interests,” he said, “and at the same time the means to defend them.”
Trump’s
push to take Greenland from Denmark in January changed the thinking in
Europe’s capitals, the officials said. For many, that episode proved
decisively that the era of mutual transatlantic commitment has run its
course. While the US remains a partner in some areas, the people said,
it’s also a security risk that Europe must be prepared to counter.
“There will be no going back to the way things were,” German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Tuesday. “The rift is too deep.”
The
work in Berlin is at a relatively early stage, with staff compiling
data on European ties to the US, according to government officials.
There’s also a parallel initiative taking place in Brussels, where the
European Commission is mapping EU vulnerabilities ahead of a new
security strategy and, as part of that process, officials have been
discussing how the bloc could leverage its choke points over rival
powers.
European
officials are also discussing compensation mechanisms to support member
states that are more exposed to US retaliation should that take place.
Everyone is aware that the US still holds the upper hand.
“Germany,
as an economic power, cannot afford to hide its own tools of
influence,” said Cornelia Woll, president of the Berlin-based Hertie
School. “However, such threats should not be used lightly, because in an
interconnected world — such actions always result in costs for both
sides and can potentially set off a downward spiral.”
US Pressure Points Identified by Berlin:
The Single Market
Europe’s
biggest point of leverage is the market power of its 450 million
affluent consumers, according to officials involved in the discussions.
Restricting access or tightening regulation on American firms represents
the bloc’s most potent economic weapon. The major tech firms aligned
with Trump and Vice President JD Vance are particularly sensitive to EU efforts to regulate social media.
New taxes, fines or operational constraints on Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. or Meta Platforms Inc.
could deliver a meaningful economic hit to profits and, in the Digital
Services Act and Digital Markets Act, the EU already has legislation on
the books that would allow it to target US tech firms, according to
Antonio Barroso, a senior geo-economics analyst at Bloomberg Economics.
Data Centers
Another
pressure point lies in supply chains running artificial intelligence.
US companies — from OpenAI and Anthropic to Microsoft Corp.’s AI units
and Elon Musk’s X ventures — depend in part on European industrial
inputs for their data center rollout, according to analysis by German
officials. Those components include specialized equipment from firms
like Siemens AG, the officials said.
Europe
is already adapting its industrial policy to the more confrontational
global environment. Through measures like the Industrial Acceleration
Act, the EU is prioritizing domestic firms in public procurement and
pushing for greater use of European components — going some way to
shield its manufacturing base and sideline US and Chinese competitors.
Semiconductors
Export
controls would prove to be even more painful weapons against the US,
the German officials said. Washington remains reliant on European firms
for chemicals used in semiconductor manufacturing and Dutch firm ASML
and its German suppliers, Zeiss and Trumpf, produce advanced lithography
machines essential for cutting-edge chip production....
