Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Lifestyle: "The Penthouse At Dubai's Burj Khalifa"

You probably don't want to be up there with Iran lobbing missiles at the Emirates but on a clear day the view has to be amazing.

A repost from 2025.

From the Robb Report's Homes for Sale, March 24:

This $51 Million Penthouse Atop Dubai’s Burj Khalifa Sits Above the Clouds
The Sky Palace spans a staggering 21,000 square feet over two floors and comes with 12 dedicated parking spaces.   

https://robbreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/1_53daa6.jpg?w=1000

takes [sic] exclusivity to a whole other level. This sprawling 21,000-square-foot duplex penthouse, located on the two highest residential floors of the Burj Khalifa, is now on the market for $51 million with Asad Khan of IDRE. With the building’s staggering height of nearly 1,300 feet, making it the tallest building in the world, the megamansion-in-the-sky is one of the highest residences in the world, offering unobstructed, 360-degree views of the bustling Business Bay neighborhood, the Arabian Gulf, and, well, as far as the eye can see across the desert.  

Unlike many ultra-high-end listings, the Sky Palace is being offered as a shell-and-core unit, meaning the interior is completely customizable. For buyers looking to craft a one-of-a-kind residence, this provides an opportunity to design everything from the entertaining areas to the private retreats and the lighting to the hardware. Adding to its appeal, the penthouse also comes with 12 dedicated parking spaces and exclusive access via the only private elevator in the Burj Khalifa.

In addition to the customizable living space, the duplex aerie offers access to the Burj Khalifa’s swanky amenities, including a private residents lounge, a fitness center, tennis courts, landscaped gardens, and a 24-hour concierge service. Residents can also enjoy fine dining and relaxation spaces within the tower. Residents also have access to two swimming pools, one of the 43rd floor and another on the 76th floor.  

After sitting vacant for more than a decade—it was allegedly being reserved for a high-profile individual—the epic aerie was acquired in 2022 by entrepreneur Karl Haddad and his business partner, The National reported. Now, Mr. Haddad feels the moment has come to bring it to market....

 https://robbreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/3_dd108a.jpg?resize=1024,576

Among suggested options are a movie theater and two-story children’s room.

....MUCH MORE

"....Micron, SanDisk & Memory Stocks Are Crashing Today"

From 24/7 Wall Street, March 3:

  • Micron (MU) is down 7% while SanDisk is down 6.8% in early trading today. Their sell-off comes after SK Hynix dropped 11.5% and Samsung dropped 9.9% in overnight trading. Lam Research (LRCX), which supplies the memory industry, has seen a 5% drop in early trading.
  • The primary reason for the decline is rising energy prices, which could directly impact Korean memory manufacturers and halt broader economic growth.

Memory and storage stocks are getting hit hard in early trading Tuesday, with the catalyst coming from halfway around the world. South Korea’s KOSPI index cratered overnight as fears over the Iran conflict reignited concerns about a major energy price shock — specifically for liquefied natural gas. For a country that is one of the world’s largest LNG importers, this hits directly at the operating costs of the semiconductor fabs that make most of the world’s memory chips....

....MUCH MORE 

Having found a site that combined memory chips and natural gas in one post I think my work here is done. As with the satire sites, reality has provided a logical endpoint and it may be time to shutter the blog and see what the lifestyle concierge has been planning for me.

We'll always carry with us the memories of the headline glory days though.

Like the 60 Year Old Prostitutes Dressed As Lady Gaga In the Rue Saint-Denis, Elon Musk's Boring Company May Be More Interesting For the Packaging Than the Product (TSLA)

India Begins Rationing Natural Gas

From Reuters via MSN, March 3:

Asia scrambles for LNG as Qatar halts output due to Iran war 

India began rationing natural gas on Tuesday while countries around Asia looked to the spot market to replace supplies, activated emergency plans and prepared to step up production, as the conflict in the Middle East curtailed shipping and halted Qatari output.

Government officials and company executives in Japan, Taiwan, Bangladesh and Pakistan said they did not expect an immediate impact as some cargoes due this month had already arrived, but they would diversify their import sources and buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the spot market if the war drags on.

LNG buyers in Asia account for more than 80% of shipments from Qatar, the world's No. 2 producer after the U.S., according to data from analytics firm Kpler.

In India, gas firms on Tuesday reduced supplies to companies in anticipation of tighter supply from the Middle East after Qatar halted production, Reuters reported.

Taiwan, which generates more than 40% of its electricity from LNG and imports a third of its supply from Qatar, will buy more from the U.S. and could coordinate with South Korea and Japan if a shipping blockade stretches on, its economy ministry said on Tuesday.

"We will continue moving in the direction we have been pursuing all along: obtaining sufficient quantities of energy through diversified markets," Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai said, adding that an "emergency response mechanism" had been activated to deal with the Qatari supply disruption.

Japan, which is the world's No. 2 LNG importer and sources 4% of its gas from Qatar, could tap the spot market or have utilities buy from each other if needed, its trade minister said.

SOUTH ASIA LNG SUPPLY....

....MUCH MORE 

"The US energy firms making a killing in America’s new gulf war" (LNG; VG)

From Euractiv, March 3:

Consumers to feel the wrath of anxious gas markets 

The stock of major American exporters of liquefied natural gas surged on the back of global supply disruptions in the wake of US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which saw a price spike in Europe that could cost consumers millions. 

The Monday after US-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend threw the Middle East into chaos, EU gas prices opened 20% higher than the week before. When Iran-launched drones hit Qatar, one of the largest exporters of LNG. which shut down a key facility, the surge hit 50%.

Europe is now left hoping for winter to end as soon as possible. “The good news … is that we are less than a month away from the end of the heating season,” said a spokesperson for the European Commission.

The share price of US energy companies also soared.

America’s relatively young LNG industry, which just recently celebrated its ten-year anniversary, is dominated by large firms like Cheniere and Venture Global which control most of the existing gasification capacity and saw their share price rise 5% and 13% respectively.

Already, they are being celebrated as the stocks to watch in the coming weeks.

“This incursion is a bonanza for US LNG exporters and a catastrophe for everyone else,” said Seb Kennedy, an analyst at EnergyFlux, in a media briefing.

Cornering the market

American energy firms supply a third of Europe’s gas imports in the form of LNG shipments across the Atlantic. When European gas prices go up, so do their earnings because contracts are typically tied to local benchmark prices. 

Venture Global stands to potentially sell hundreds of LNG cargoes under short-term contracts as its newest terminal, Plaquemines, comes online step-by-step, Kennedy explained....

....MORE 

Also at Euractiv March 3:

Europe in crisis mode as gas prices double amid military action in Gulf 

"Qatar’s LNG Blackout Just Broke the Global Gas Market"

Speaking of Qatar.

From OilPrice, March 2: 

  • Iranian drone strikes forced QatarEnergy to halt production at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, effectively taking one-fifth of global LNG export capacity offline in a single geopolitical event.
  • European gas prices jumped over 50%, Brent spiked, and shipping through Hormuz stalled.
  • The outage embeds a deeper geopolitical premium into LNG markets, heightens competition for cargoes, and may accelerate diversification.
  • It’s not hyperbole to call what transpired today in Qatar a seismic event for global energy markets. On March 2, QatarEnergy — the state-owned energy giant responsible for all of the country’s liquefied natural gas exports — announced a complete halt to LNG production after Iranian drone strikes hit facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City. And the effects of the shutdown will go well beyond the short term.

    These aren’t minor processing units.

    These are the heart of Qatar’s LNG infrastructure, and their shutdown effectively removes roughly 20% of the world’s LNG export capacity from the market in one hit.

    This is a supply disruption at a scale rarely seen outside of war, siege, or widespread industrial disaster. And it’s happening not because of maintenance or economic shifts, but because of geopolitical conflict. The consequences and potential knock-on effects are massive.

    Why Qatar Matters

    Qatar isn’t just any producer. It is the producer that underpinned much of global gas flows outside Russia. In 2025, QatarEnergy shipped nearly 81 million metric tons of LNG. These volumes helped balance markets, especially in Asia and Europe. More than 80% of Qatar’s LNG goes to Asian markets, including China, Japan, India, and South Korea, with Europe also a significant buyer under long-term contracts.

    Nearly all of that infrastructure sits at Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG export complex. Ras Laffan was built to process gas from the massive North Field that is shared with Iran. Since the early 2010s, Qatar has dominated global LNG in a way that today’s U.S. or Australian supply can’t match in single-source volume, and the world has priced and planned accordingly.

    That’s why this is a real supply shock. The market hasn’t just lost a marginal source. It’s lost a foundational pillar of the LNG trade....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    It appears Iran's strategy, knowing they can't sway the Israeli or American intentions by direct force, is to leverage their war-making ability into pressure from America's allies to halt the financial pain.

    Recently:

    Qatar’s Ministry of Defense Has Been Busy

    Via Breaking911:

    Here's the BBC's map of the countries that Iran has targeted: 

    https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/896c/live/bfeb0890-1667-11f1-801d-ed3cff6bf876.png.webp 

     —In maps: Strikes across Iran and the Middle East

    "China's economic ambitions hit limits to growth as its national congress meets"

    With both Iran and Venezuela out of the shipping-cheap-oil-to-China business (~20% of China's usage), at least for a while, President Xi has another headwind to overcome.

    From the Associated Press, March 2:

    China’s progress in building a modern economy, evident in its kung-fu fighting robots and self-parking cars, is hitting limits as a downturn in its housing industry drags on, small businesses suffer and young people struggle to find jobs.

    The gap between Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s high-tech, artificial intelligence-driven ambitions and the hard realities of slowing growth is the backdrop for the annual meeting of the country’s largely ceremonial national legislature, the National People’s Congress, which begins Thursday.

    During the meetings, which draw about 3,000 deputies to Beijing, top leaders will outline China’s annual target for growth and the congress will endorse a five-year blueprint of policy priorities until 2030.

    “What we’ll see is the trade-off between whether it’s going to be industry and tech, or looking after domestic demand,” said Alexander Davey, an analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies. “These are the two priorities that are juggling for Xi Jinping right now.”

    China’s economy is losing momentum
    In a city in southern China’s Guangdong, families were cutting back on big purchases during last month’s Lunar New Year holidays. Even for auspicious houseplants like orchids, used as a symbol of abundance and prosperity, prices were slashed by as much as 40% from last year.

    The penny pinching has small business owners complaining about hard times.

    China reported it reached “around 5%” economic growth in 2025, but economists question some official data.

    The relatively robust pace of growth was supported by strong manufacturing as exports surged, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes and other disruptions to trade.

    “Hitting the 2025 growth target is hardly reassuring as the Chinese economy is losing growth momentum, with rising imbalances and enormous structural problems being papered over by a surge in export-driven growth,” Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics and trade policy at Cornell University, told The Associated Press in emailed comments.

    Property slump persists...

    ....MUCH MORE 

    The oil situation might be good for Russia though. Putin needs something, he's looking around the world and wondering "What the hell is going on?" 

    As they teach you in your "Intro to Ecology" class: Everything is connected. 

    Monday, March 2, 2026

    A Story In Four Tweets

    "US State Department urges Americans to immediately leave over a dozen Mideast nations, including Israel"

    From the Times of Israel, March 2:

    ‘Depart now via commercial means due to serious safety risks,’ Americans told * Iran missiles trigger widespread sirens * IDF strikes Beirut * Tehran claims Strait of Hormuz closed, threatens to fire on any ship trying to pass; US said to deny this 

    ....MUCH MORE (Liveblog) 

    Possible Job Opening, High Risk/High Reward Position: Iran’s interim Supreme Leader, Alireza Arafi, May Have Joined Iran's Former Supreme Leader

    From Connected India, March 2:

    Has Khamenei’s successor Ayatollah Arafi been killed already? 

    Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, speculation is rife regarding the fate of Iran’s interim Supreme Leader, Alireza Arafi. Social media posts and some Israeli news reports have claimed that Iran’s interim Supreme Leader, Alireza Arafi, was killed in an airstrike just hours after taking charge. 

    These reports have been widely shared but have not been confirmed by Iranian state media or major international news agencies.

    If the unverified claims about Arafi’s death are confirmed, it would add to Iran’s existing leadership crisis.

    Alireza Arafi took charge as Iran’s interim Supreme Leader after the death of longtime leader, Ali Khamenei, in joint US–Israeli airstrikes on Tehran early Saturday, February 28.

    After Khamenei’s death, Tehran activated Article 111 of its Constitution, and an interim three-member leadership council was formed to assume the Supreme Leader’s authority. Arafi was appointed as the jurist representative from the Guardian Council, completing the temporary body that will govern until a permanent successor is selected....

    ....MORE 

    "Iranian crypto outflows jump 700% minutes after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Elliptic says"

    As has been said about old-timey bank runs: "If you are going to panic, panic early." 

    From CoinDesk, March 3:

    The blockchain analytics firm said flows from Iran’s largest exchange spiked immediately after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Tehran, pointing to possible capital flight

    • Outgoing crypto transactions from Iranian exchange Nobitex surged 700% within minutes of the initial strikes at the weekend, per Elliptic.
    • The analytics firm linked other spikes in outflows to U.S. sanctions announcements and January unrest followed by an internet blackout.
    • Funds appear to be moving to overseas exchanges, potentially bypassing banking controls, the report said.

    Crypto outflows from Iran’s largest exchange jumped 700% within minutes of the first U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, blockchain analytics firm Elliptic said in a Monday blog post.

    Elliptic said transaction volumes leaving Nobitex spiked almost immediately after the strikes, suggesting a rush to move funds offshore. Initial blockchain tracing indicates the crypto was sent to overseas exchanges that have historically received significant inflows from Iran....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Iran Internet Status is showing severe disruptions although a couple other DownDetector type services are showing some internet connectivity coming back.

    For example, the late Ayatollah's official website has been up for most of the last 36 hours though at times it is very slow to load:

    https://english.khamenei.ir/ 

    Connecting it all together: "Nvidia to invest $4 billion in two photonics companies" (NVDA; LITE; COHR)

    Mr. Huang has said he wants to connect entire data centers together into one gigantic chip.

    To do that you have to get latency between chips and then between servers as close to zero as possible.

    From CNBC, March 2:

  • Nvidia is investing a combined $4 billion in Coherent and Lumentum, two photonics companies.
  • Each company will receive $2 billion each from the chip giant as part of the strategic investment.
  • Nvidia is investing a combined $4 billion in two companies developing photonics technologies, as it looks to shore up research pipelines and supply chains to support the major AI infrastructure buildout.

    The U.S. chip giant announced on Monday it’s investing $2 billion in Lumentum and the same amount in Coherent.

    Both companies are developing optics technology — systems which generate or transmit light and are used in functions like sensing and data transfer.

    Lumentum is a U.S.-based company that is developing optical and photonic technologies to power the networks and infrastructure behind AI, cloud computing and next-generation communications.

    Coherent, also based in the U.S., develops photonics technology, which refers to harnessing light (photons) to create components and systems that enable high-performance optical applications.

    “Together with Lumentum, NVIDIA is advancing the world’s most sophisticated silicon photonics to build the next generation of gigawatt-scale AI factories,” Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia, said in a statement....

    ....MORE 

    A third player, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) is up even more than the two names in the headline.

    This network stuff is not new. You may recall that Nvidia purchased networking gear specialist Mellanox for just under $7 billion in 2019, back when a billion was real money. 

    "Connecting The Dots On Why Nvidia Is Buying Mellanox" (NVDA)

    A year later we saw Mellanox InfiniBand system interconnects in five of the world's top ten fastest supercomputers. (and more than half of the Top500).

    In the most recent earnings report, "NVIDIA Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - February 25, 2026 (NVDA)" this was highlighted:

    Networking revenue -- $11 billion for the quarter, over 3.5x year over year; full-year Networking exceeded $31 billion, up more than 10x versus fiscal 2021 (year of Mellanox acquisition [sic]). 

    n.b. 2020 was the year Mellanox was integrated into NVDA, not 2021. 

    Mr. Huang is not fooling around. 

    Related, June 2024:

    Nvidia's Financial Dominance (NVDA)

    “'Entry-Level PC Segment Will Disappear by 2028,' Says Gartner, as Soaring Memory Costs Start to Cripple Manufacturers"

    From WCCFTech, March 1:

    PC manufacturers won't find it viable to offer hardware to gamers at 'entry-level' prices, as memory costs have reached unprecedented levels.

    Gartner Says That Manufacturers Have No Option Left Other Than Raising PC Prices to Adjust to Rising Memory Costs

    DRAM shortages have impacted several consumer-focused industries, but the consequences for the PC industry are the most disruptive. We have seen hardware prices soar to new heights, product launches delayed, and inventory levels drop rapidly across retail markets, all because the memory supply isn't enough to meet demand. A new Gartner market report reveals that PC shipments are expected to drop by 10.4% in 2026, more than the smartphone market, making 'budget builds' an obsolete term.

    The sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028. 
    - Ranjit Atwal, Sr Director Analyst at Gartner

    One of the primary reasons manufacturers cannot address the demand from budget PC gamers is that memory costs have risen sharply in product BOMs, driven by surging DRAM prices. For lower-budget products, manufacturers have traditionally tried to absorb the rise in BOMs, since a price hike usually means consumer interest will wane. But in the current situation, PC manufacturers are ultimately 'bound' to pass on the cost pressure to customers. This means PCs in the $500- $1,000 range will suffer the most....

    ....MORE 

    And as we noted exiting from a February 8 post:

     You will also see Apple and Samsung focus on high-end, higher margin phones as they try to squeeze every available penny of profit from those memory chips they are able to acquire.

    Also at WCCFTech:

    The New Memory Prices Quoted by Samsung & SK Hynix for Q2 Are So ‘Absurd’ That Buyers Might Find It Better to Give Up

     Earlier today, Bond Vigilantes on possible macro effects:

    Memory: "The inflation spark that could become a deflation shock?"

    "UK households urged to stockpile 9 key foods for WW3 breakout"

    From the always calm and restrained Daily Express, March 1:

    Brits worried about being unprepared should make sure they have plenty of these key foodstuffs in the event of the next global conflict breaking out. 

    With US strikes on Iran and the death of the Ayotollah this weekend, alongside Vladimir Putin's lakeys making yet more nuclear threats to UK, it's fair to say tensions are continuing to ramp up. 

    It’s the worst case scenario which absolutely nobody wants to think about. But with everything that’s going on in the world right now, there are some fears that World War Three could genuinely be closer than we want to admit and the UK government does advise that households should be prepared, not just for the event of war but for other national emergencies too. 

    Earlier this year, the Doomsday Clock was moved to just 89 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been. The clock has, since just after the end of World War Two, been used to symbolise how close science believes the world is to annihilation, whether environmental, viral or indeed, nuclear.

    When Russia invaded Ukraine, it triggered a cost of living crisis that saw food prices skyrocket, as well as big leaps in energy prices and the cost of petrol and diesel.

    It could all come to nothing, but if any conflict does escalate further, it is again likely to impact food prices as well as food availability, just as was seen at the start of Russia's invasion. 

    Retailer Food Bunker says: “Whilst still comparatively unlikely, the prospect of World War 3 poses significant challenges to the UK's food security, with potential disruptions to international trade and domestic agricultural production. 

    “On a householder level, it would be wise for civilians to build their food reserves, learn how to grow and preserve their own food and to try and support their local food producers.”

    According to sources including Business Insider and PBS Food, there are nine key foods and food types households should focus on for stockpiling for emergencies. These are:

    Honey: This is because honey is high in calories and never goes off. Honey has been found inside Egyptian tombs in a condition that’s still edible and free from germs. That’s because bacteria cannot grow in honey.

    Rice: Uncooked white rice will last up to five years, but rice stored in an oxygen free container (vacuum packed), will last a staggering 30 years, according to the US Food and Drug Administration.

    Peanut butter: Peanut butter is high in fat and calories, and also has Vitamin E. Peanut butter keeps for three to five years, and even if it goes off, it still won’t harm you, it just won’t taste as nice.

    Energy bars: mashed up bars of oats, raisins, seeds and other dried goodness, energy bars effectively last forever, and are extremely high in nutrition.

    Dehydrated meat: Dried meat, known as jerky in the US, is not that popular here, but homemade dehydrated meat will last up to two months according to the USDA. Vacuum sealing it, then freezing it, can take this to a year. Indeed, most meat - including chicken, beef, pork and fish - is safe to freeze for one year.....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Also at The Express:

    March 2 - World on brink of economic meltdown - but Britain faces one threat no other country does 

    March 2 - Terror map shows what will happen in Russia nukes UK city after threat

    March 2 -  5 key jobs which will avoid conscription call up if WW3 breaks out

    See? Calm and restrained. 

    European Natural Gas Prices Jump 40%

    Lifted in toto from baha Breaking News, March 2:

    The prices of natural gas in Europe extended their gains on Monday, surging by more than 40% after QatarEnergy announced it stopped LNG production at the Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial cities, after Qatar's Defense Ministry reported that two Iranian drones hit the energy sites earlier today. Investors also kept their eyes on the stalled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for oil and gas supplies.

    For April contracts, Dutch TTF natural gas futures soared 41.7% to €45.285 per megawatt hour, at 1:10 pm CET. For the same month's deliveries, the UK natural gas futures skyrocketed by 45.6% to 113.44 pence per therm at 1:13 pm CET.

    Also at baha, March 2:

    Greece to send frigates, fighter jets to Cyprus 

    Memory: "The inflation spark that could become a deflation shock?"

    From M&G's Bond Vigilantes, February 27:

    Memory chips have quietly become the most important commodities in the global economy.

    DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) is considered the workhorse of the digital world. It functions as the operating memory when a device is turned on, and this memory is lost when a device is switched off.  These chips are used in almost all electronic devices. They play a critical role and sit at the heart of everything from AI servers, cars, smartphones, laptops and more.

    The Nvidia type of chips – GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) – are used for computational purposes but are also heavily reliant on DRAM chips.

    Many will be aware of the rise of semiconductors and the rapid ascent of Nvidia but few will be aware of the changes ripping through another part of the semiconductor industry: DRAM chips, which have a very direct effect on all of our everyday lives. When Covid disrupted supply chains, we saw all sorts of issues from price increases to availability of goods. Remember when the price of second hand cars were trading at levels close to new cars as the old cars had the necessary chips, while new ones had to go without.

    https://bondvigilantes.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/1-the-inflation-spark-that-could-become-a-deflation-shock.png 

    Source: Bloomberg Indices ( Ref.  ISPPDR37 index, inSpectrum Tech Inc DRAM Spot Price DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8 3200 MHz) accessed as of 25th February 2026 . 

    The price of these memory chips has exploded in recent months, helping explain why the Korean Stock Exchange has had such a good run with Samsung and SK Hynix making up circa 35% of the index.

    Today’s tight memory market raises a fascinating macro question: Is this inflationary fuel for the global economy or are we at the early stages of a deflationary unwind?

    The inflation case: scarcity breeds pricing power 
    When memory supply tightens, the first-order effect is straightforward: prices rise. The companies that benefit most are the manufacturers themselves, such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Fuel: More On Saudi Arabia's Giant Ras Tanura Refinery

     Following on "Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura Refinery Halts After Drone Attack".

    From MarketWatch, March 2: 

    Gasoil is spiking more than crude. What it is and why prices are soaring amid Iran conflict.
    A reported strike on a Saudi Aramco refinery triggered a sharp price hike 

    While the world kept close watch on climbing crude-oil prices on Monday, the so-called workhorse fuel of the industrial world was seeing a far more dramatic response as the Iran conflict reaches its third day.

    On a continuous-contract basis, gasoil futures soared 15% on the International Exchange to $869 per metric ton. Heating-oil futures jumped 11%, Brent crude was up 7% to over $78 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude rose over 6% to $71 a barrel.

    Gasoil is a crude-oil derivative, commonly known as diesel oil, used for agricultural machinery, ships and railways, making it a crucial industrial fuel. Prices at one point early Monday had shot up more than 21% amid reports that one of Saudi Aramco’s biggest refineries, Ras Tanura, was hit by a drone strike, forcing its closure.

    ***

    The Saudi Energy Ministry acknowledged limited damage at the Ras Tanura refinery, saying debris from two drone strikes had struck it, causing a limited fire that was contained. But the strike clearly rattled the energy market, as prices for oil and diesel fuel surged on those headlines....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Capital Markets: "Dollar Jumps on War, but Treasuries are No Safe Haven"

    From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex: 

    There is one fundamental driver today and that is the Middle East war. After finishing last week on a soft note, the greenback has rallied. It is up by 0.5% or more against most of the G10 currencies. The Canadian dollar, which often performs relatively better in a strong US dollar environment is off the by about 0.1% in late European morning turnover. The Swiss franc, a traditional safe haven, is off around 0.65%. April WTI, which settled near $67 surged to almost $75.35 initially and is now around $72. Equities are mostly lower. 

    The fog of war coupled with the decapitation blow to Iran makes the end-game difficult to envision now. The conflict is much broader than last June’s strike, which the US claimed had destroyed Iran’s nuclear capability. Reports suggest the White House is warning the war can continue for a few weeks....

    ....MUCH MORE    

    Ayatollah Khamenei's Son/Heir Has Been Removed From The Line of Succession

    From one of the open source sites: 

    Ex-President Mahmoud ‘Israel must be wiped off the map’Ahmadinejad has also departed the scene.

    Except for the whole 'finish the job Hitler started' worldview, the A-man was enough of a whack job to be interesting.

    First up, some of the calls to genocide by various Iranian leaders, June 2025:

    "War Between Israel and Iran Is Inevitable"

    Just as the Jews mean it when they say "Never again," The Iranians mean it when they say they will destroy, annihilate, eradicate Israel. Some examples after the jump....

    ***

    ....Israel's Eradication – An Ideological And Practical Goal Of Iran's Islamic Revolution Regime 
    ....Iranian Regime Officials On Destroying Israel – From Previous Years  

    ....MUCH MORE

    And some of our posts on Iran (there are dozens/hundreds):

    From the Miami Herald:
    ...On Aug. 17, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad proclaimed that Israel’s existence is an “insult to all of humanity.” A couple of weeks earlier, he told a gathering of Muslim diplomats that, “anyone who loves freedom and justice must strive for the annihilation of the Zionist regime.”

    Ever the optimist, the president explained that this would help “solve all the world’s problems.”...
    Well there you go.
    Ahm a dinner jacket, a man with a plan.

    And finally, a very interesting story from January 2026:
    "The Obscure Bank Collapse That Sent Iran Into a Tailspin"

    Not that the rest of the posts aren't interesting but the bank failure combined with the drought really destabilized the country over the last few months, leading in part to the protests where as many as 40 to 50 thousand people have been killed by the regime.   

    Water crisis means Iran has no choice but to move capital, Pezeshkian says  

    August 2025 - Is Iran running out of water?

    The country has had an expanding problem for years, and it is bad enough that the Iranians accused Israel of stealing Iran's clouds.

    This is the sort of thing that leads to war. 

    Sunday, March 1, 2026

    "Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura Refinery Halts After Drone Attack"

    Having Venezuela as a potential supplier to the world markets, though not immediately substitutable, is looking more and more fortuitous.

    From Bloomberg, March 2: 

    Saudi Aramco has halted operations at its Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia after a drone strike in the area, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The refinery, among the largest in Saudi Arabia, can process 550,000 barrels of crude per day. The plant located on the Persian Gulf was shut down earlier Monday as a precaution as Aramco assess damage, the people familiar with developments said, asking not to be named because the information is not yet public. A blaze at the site was under control, they said.

    Aramco’s media office did not have an immediate comment, while Saudi Arabia’s government did not immediately respond to request for comment....

    ....MORE 

    Meanwhile In Britain: "Assisted dying is Keir Starmer’s best bet for a legacy"

    I thought his legacy was letting gang rapists walk free with a warning letter when he was the nation's chief prosecutor but he probably thinks the 'assisted dying' thing is preferable as something to be remembered for.

    From The Times of London, February 24:

    A prime minister short on signature successes should free up parliamentary time to stop peers talking out the bill 

    The creation of the Open University. Whenever Harold Wilson was asked to identify his greatest achievement in office, it was the Open University he would always cite.

    It is notable that when prime ministers look back on the mark that they have left, the things they are really proud of, the things that made it all worthwhile, they rarely mention the issues that were the stuff of great party dispute. Tony Blair talks of the Good Friday agreement, David Cameron of gay marriage, Theresa May of the Modern Slavery Act. In other words, concrete initiatives which made the world a better place for identifiable groups of people.

    And also things that they personally believed in and championed. Things that wouldn’t have happened without them. Wilson could have named the abolition of capital punishment, the decriminalisation of homosexuality or the legalisation of abortion. But these simply happened on his watch: he let them happen. The creation of the Open University wasn’t as momentous but Wilson was the driving force. He often intervened to stop others — his chancellor, his education secretary — from frustrating his intent.

    So what will it be for Keir Starmer? He won’t want to be sitting there in retirement citing briefings against Wes Streeting as his signature achievement. Or announcing how proud he is of his turnover of chiefs of staff. And it may all be over soon, so he should settle on something better and get it done before it is too late.

    There’s one obvious candidate: assisted dying. I appreciate that some readers don’t agree with it (though most do). My point is that there is one reader who certainly agrees with it. And that is Starmer. He’s very opaque, our prime minister. He leaves us guessing on most topics. But on this we can confidently say he believes in reforming the law on assisted dying.

    He has done so at least since the moment, as director of public prosecutions, when he first had to make a decision about prosecuting the parents of Daniel James. They had taken their quadriplegic son to Switzerland to die in 2008, after Daniel had insistently pressed his will upon them. Starmer chose not to proceed against them. He was moved when he studied the transcripts of police interviews, reading of a grieving mother accused of committing a crime for carrying out her son’s wishes.

    Later in his term, complying with a court judgment, Starmer developed a protocol that made clear when he would prosecute and when he would not. As a result he understands the crucial point about assisted dying that others often miss. Britain already has an assisted dying law. One made by the prosecuting authorities and the courts rather than parliament. This law allows people to assist the death of others, without becoming criminals. We have legalised assisted dying, already. Just very badly.

    Again, what matters is not whether this is true (though I think it is). What matters is that he thinks it is true. That is why he pledged, if elected as prime minister, to provide government time for a new law. A better law. And then, when he won, he voted for the resulting private member’s bill....

    ....MUCH MORE  

    "Iran raises ‘flag of revenge’ at Jamkaran Mosque after Khamenei’s killing – What it means"

    From India's Financial Express, March 1:

    The display of the red flag, traditionally associated in Shia Islam with calls for justice and retribution when a revered figure is killed, underscores the depth of anger and the desire for retaliation among many Iranians following the high-profile strike carried out by US and Israeli forces. 

    In the wake of the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a red “flag of revenge” was hoisted over the dome of the Jamkaran Mosque in the holy city of Qom, a symbolic gesture that has raised regional and international alarm amid the escalating Iran-Israel war....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Just as the Persians have their tradition of raising the red flag of war in the Holy City of Qom, westerners have the tradition of rolling out The Ramones from the Holy City of Queens, NY.
    As noted in the outro from a December 2019 post on Lockheed (a couple weeks prior to the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani):
    ...If the stock breaks out, and is doing what stocks do, seeing over the horizon, we may actually be looking at a shooting war. So, trying to stay ahead of the curve I am going to propose the Ramones Blitzkrieg Bop as our next theme song.
    Here's a very fast (200+ beats per minute) cover:

    If interested see also "Music and the Market: Song and Stock Volatility" for more on high-speed tunes.

    The U.S. Reverse-Engineered Iran's Shahed Drones And Used The Clones In Saturday's Attacks

    From The War Zone, February 28:

    U.S. Military Has Used Long-Range Kamikaze Drones In Combat For The First Time
    America's clone of Iran's Shahed-136 had been used against Iran in an ironic vignette of modern drone warfare.

    The U.S. has used LUCAS kamikaze drones for the first time in combat, U.S. Central Command acknowledged on Saturday. The drones, based on the Iranian Shahed-136, were launched from the ground by Task Force Scorpion Strike (TFSS). The task force was set up in December “to flip the script on Iran,” a U.S. official told us at the time. The launch of LUCAS drones marks a rare instance when the U.S. adopted Iran’s drone playbook and used it against them.

    Today’s strikes were part of Operation Epic Fury, an attack the U.S. launched along with Israel on targets across Iran. You can read more about that in our initial story here.

    The War Zone has advocated for the procurement of this exact class of drone by the American military.

    The LUCAS drones are designed to be a far less expensive strike weapon than missiles, which not only cost more, but are far more difficult and time-consuming to produce.

    “Costing approximately $35,000 per platform, LUCAS is a low-cost, scalable system that provides cutting-edge capabilities at a fraction of the cost of traditional long-range U.S. systems that can deliver similar effects,” Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a CENTCOM spokesperson, told TWZ back in December. “The drone system has an extensive range and the ability to operate beyond line of sight, providing significant capability across CENTCOM’s vast operating area.”

    In addition, the LUCAS design includes features that allow for “autonomous coordination, making them suitable for swarm tactics and network-centric strikes,” a U.S. official told us. As we have explained in detail in the past, the swarming capabilities combined with some of the drones being equipped with Starlink terminals, means extremely advanced cooperative tactics and dynamic targeting are possible, all while keeping humans in the loop....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    "Oil Soars Over 10% In OTC Trading, Whether That Sticks Depends On How Long The War Lasts"

    Not sure I'd use the word "soars" for a 10% move but to each their own.

    From ZeroHedge, March 1:

    With war in the middle east raging, and the world's most important oil transit choke point - the Straits of Hormuz which accounts for 20% of daily global oil transit - "effectively" halted after at least three ships were attacked in the vicinity of the waterway - even as Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera TV his country has no intention to close the Strait of Hormuz and has kept it open so far, markets have just one question: where does oil open when futures resume trading in a few hours. 

    Well, we can tell you: according to the IG Weekend Market, an OTC market that reflects prices across over the counter exchanges, oil is set to open more than 10% higher, with spot WTI trading around $75 and Brent set to rise over $80.

    Source: IG

    That's not the question: the question is where does oil trade in a week, a month, a year, and - tied to that - what happens to the oil price curve

    The price spike comes despite OPEC+’s announced modest supply hike. But for such gains will sustain, or extend, investors will need to decide that the conflict is going to drag on. Indeed, this new wave of war is bigger, broader and messier than last June’s fighting. The gap between attacks and retaliation has narrowed: In previous waves it took days, but now it’s hours.

    As Bloomberg's Garfield Reynolds reminds us, during the 2003 invasion of Iraq by US-led forces, crude actually tumbled at the start of hostilities, on speculation the US would achieve a rapid victory. It ended up rebounding from an April trough to enter a long uptrend as it became clearer that there would be no straightforward resolution. 

    The stakes are higher for oil this time. Iran’s output accounts for more than Iraq’s did in 2003, and Iraq had much less capacity to threaten the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has said it doesn’t plan to close the key shipping channel, but there have already been signs that the conflict is halting tanker traffic....

    “Tankers are starting to build by the Strait of Hormuz, but nothing seems to be going through at the moment – tankers are definitely spooked,” said Matt Smith, oil analyst at energy consulting firm Kpler.

    That means any lack of clarity on the endgame increases the potential for sustained advances in crude over the coming weeks. Any signs of a prolonged and drawn-out struggle boost the likelihood of crude reaching $80 a barrel and beyond, with Bloomberg Economics outlining a scenario that sees oil spiking above $100 in an extreme disruption scenario....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Shipping: "The First 36 Hours: Strait of Hormuz Becomes a War Zone, Tankers Hit, Shipping Giants Halt Gulf Transits"

    From gCaptain, March 1:

    The world’s most vital energy artery is under siege. Following coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top military commanders, the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows—has become a war zone, forcing major shipping lines to halt operations and sending hundreds of vessels to seek shelter in open waters.

    The escalation has been swift. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps responded with sustained missile and drone attacks targeting both military installations and commercial shipping across the region. Three U.S. service members have been killed in action, while Iranian strikes on civilian vessels mark an ominous expansion of the conflict’s scope.

    President Trump confirmed the sinking of nine Iranian naval vessels in a social media post, declaring: “We are going after the rest – They will soon be floating at the bottom of the sea, also! In a different attack, we largely destroyed their Naval Headquarters.”

    U.S. Central Command previously confirmed the sinking of an Iranian Jamaran-class corvette at a pier in Chah Bahar during the opening hours of the operation, which the Trump Administration is calling Operation Epic Fury.

    The impact on commercial shipping has been immediate and severe. Within 24 hours, at least three tankers had been struck by missiles or drones in what maritime security officials describe as indiscriminate attacks. The oil tanker Skylight was hit 5 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, forcing crew evacuation and injuring four. The crude carrier MKD Vyom took a projectile strike above the waterline, sparking an engine room fire that was later controlled. A third vessel, the Sea La Donna, also reported an attack.

    Concerningly, the Joint Maritime Information Center has “found no association that would make these vessels a viable candidate for targeting and attack,” underscoring that merchant ships of any flag or nationality now face existential risk in Gulf waters.

    The JMIC has elevated the regional threat level to CRITICAL—its highest classification—warning that “an attack is almost certain.” While Iran has not formally closed the Strait of Hormuz, the operational reality reflects “active kinetic hazard conditions” throughout the waterway.

    Major shipping companies have responded with unprecedented action. Maersk announced it is “suspending all vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz until further notice,” while also rerouting its ME11 and MECL services around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

    MSC Mediterranean Shipping has taken even more drastic measures....

    ....MUCH MORE  

    "Jensen Huang’s A.I. Bets Beyond GPUs: 10 High-Flying Startups Backed by Nvidia" (NVDA)

    From Observer, February 27:

    Under Jensen Huang, Nvidia poured billions into OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI, deepening its grip on the global A.I. ecosystem. 

    Jensen Huang is best known for building the world’s dominant A.I. chipmaker. But as surging demand for GPUs has turned Nvidia into a $4.5 trillion powerhouse, the company has quietly expanded its influence far beyond hardware, pouring billions into startups across the A.I. ecosystem. Today, nearly every major player in the industry, from OpenAI to xAI, has some financial link to the Santa Clara, Calif.-based giant.

    Over the past two decades, Nvidia has participated in 177 funding rounds, according to Crunchbase. Most of that activity has come since 2023, tracking the explosive rise of generative A.I. The tally does not include NVentures, Nvidia’s formal venture arm, which has made an additional 83 investments. 

    Many of Nvidia’s largest checks have gone to its own customers, raising questions about so-called circular funding arrangements that could artificially bolster perceptions of demand. Huang has dismissed that criticism, arguing that Nvidia’s contributions represent only a small fraction of the capital required by leading A.I. developers.

    The pace is accelerating. In just the first two months of 2026, Nvidia has joined 11 funding rounds. They include a $1.5 billion raise by Wayve, the London-based robotaxi startup, and a $1 billion round for World Labs, the model-building venture founded by Fei-Fei Li. Most recently, Nvidia participated in a staggering $110 billion funding round unveiled by OpenAI.

    Here are the 10 most notable A.I. startups backed by Nvidia:....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    "Beware of banks breaking bad, warns top B. of A. strategist. He casts a wary eye on bank-loan ETFs."

    Banks can be a tell on everything from the overall economy to credit markets to equities. 

    From MarketWatch, February 27:

    Problem loans in the financial-services sector imply mounting risks for markets 

    A previous version of this report provided an inaccurate name for the exchange-traded fund “SRLN.” It is the State Street Blackstone Senior Loan ETF. The story has been corrected.

    An alarm bell has been rung by one of Wall Street’s most prominent strategists. Investors ought to be wary of developments in the financial sector, with problem loans increasingly a concern that could trigger a “proper flush in risk assets” next month.

    This stark warning emanates from one of Wall Street’s most respected commentators, Bank of America chief equity strategist Michael Hartnett. His weekly flow note alerts investors to watch closely the performance of exchange-traded funds that specialize in bank loans. The panic generated by Jamie Dimon’s “cockroaches” forewarning last October has never fully dissipated.

    When bank-loan funds break below the 200-day moving average? “Bad events.” BofA Global Investment Strategy

    Hartnett highlights two funds in particular that warrant special attention: the State Street Blackstone Senior Loan ETF and the State Street Financial Select Sector ETF. So far this year, the former is down just a few percentage points, with the latter dropping about 5%, but Hartnett and team suggest that if respective key support levels for the funds‘ 200-day moving average at $40 and $52 are broken, that signals “bad events” are looming. He cites comparisons with pandemic-era markets and the U.K. pension-fund crisis.

    If the worst comes to pass, Hartnett predicts a big increase in risk aversion in March, a spike in the dollar with its index hitting 100, and a surge in demand for U.S Treasurys....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Also at MarketWatch:

    Will the bank get suspicious if I deposit $150,000 in cash into my checking account?

    "California's taxes, cost of living are crushing six-figure salaries"

    Super Cali taxes/costs are really quite atrocious.*

    From SF Gate, February 25:

    A six-figure paycheck goes the least far in SF and Oakland 

    It’s no surprise that money in California doesn’t go as far as it does in many other states. But a new report from ConsumerAffairs reveals the stark contrast in take-home pay for someone earning a six-figure salary here compared to other areas. 

    Workers making a $100,000 salary in San Francisco and Oakland would have a purchasing power of just $62,371 after taxes and when adjusted for regional price parity, the worst on the list of U.S. cities. 

    California’s state income tax is high, but it’s the cities’ RPP, which translates roughly to cost of living, that really brings down the salary. Goods and services are much more expensive in California, with housing and utilities making purchasing power plummet. Housing costs in San Francisco, for example, are double the national average, the report said. 

    It’s no surprise San Francisco dominated the list, as it’s frequently cited as one of the most expensive cities in the world. Prices don’t look like they’ll be coming down anytime soon, either, as rent continues to skyrocket and home prices stay high amid low inventory and demand from AI workers. 

    California cities made up the bulk of the top of the list where a $100,000 salary is most diluted, with eight cities in the bottom 10. Los Angeles, Long Beach, Santa Ana, Anaheim and Irvine tied for fourth-worst in the country, with a paycheck netting just $63,829. The Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro area has a slightly lower RPP compared to SF, saving workers nearly $1,500.

    New York City came in at No. 3 with $62,674 in take-home pay, and Honolulu came in at No. 5 with $65,204. 

    Texas dominated the list of the highest adjusted post-tax salaries, with four Texas cities earning the most of a $100,000 paycheck. Texas lacks both state and local income taxes, allowing workers to avoid a huge chunk of their pay being deducted each earning period. In Laredo, Texas, workers would take home $89,864 of a $100,000 salary, the highest on the list. El Paso and Lubbock rounded out the top three....

    ....MORE 

    SF Gate front page
    *An homage to an homage. From April 2021's "The Backstory On Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious (geek tech site The Register hardest hit)":

    ...And The Register?

    They seem to have bet the publication on the word in question:

    Super Cali COVID count is somewhat out of focus, server crash and expired cert makes numbers quite atrocious

    Super Cali 'leccy bikes are proving quite atrocious, even though the biz insists they really quite precocious

    Super Cali optimistic right-to-repair's negotious, even though Apple thought it was something quite atrocious

    Super Cali goes ballistic, net neutrality hopeless? Even Ajit Pai's gloating is something quite atrocious

    Super Cali health inspectors: Tesla blood awoke us

    Super Cali upstart's new rocket test approaches, even though the size of it won't launch a Tesla motor

    Super Cali goes ballistic, Starbucks is on notice: Expensive milky coffee is something quite cancerous

    Super Cali's futuristic robo-cars in focus. Even though a watchdog says tech is quite atrocious

    Super Cali goes – oh no, wait, this is Colorado

    Super Cali: Be realistic, 'autopilot' is bogus – even though the sound of it is something quite precocious

    Super Cali: Be realistic, get a wa– ah, screw it

    Wanna work for El Reg? Developers needed for headline-writing AI bots

    And so, soooo, many more.
    They even have self awareness but does that stop them?

    So much for only one Super Cali headline per month
    Nooooo...

    Corrected—More on the letter "Ø"

    Exiting from February 26's "CEO of World Economic Forum quits after Epstein ties come to light" I took issue with Reuters' laziness, using the letter "O" rather than the letter "Ø" in Borge Brende's name:

    It's Børge, not Borge. 

    That's it, no tantrum or anything, just a mention. But I did look to see if we had seen this movie before and lo-and-behold we had. December 2020:

    Oh Oh Norway, You Are Busted 

    Via Jack Dorsey's Twitter, long may it rave

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eo5Jis2XUAACFRH?format=jpg&name=medium 

    Next up, Sweden: Are those diaeresis or umlauts? Hmmmm:
    ä⟩ and ⟨öand what's with the ring over the Ã¥?.... 

    "Netanyahu urges Iranians to rise up, says Israel will hit thousands of targets"

    During the twelve day war in June 2025 we found Iran International to be accurate in their reporting.

    Here they are again, March 1:

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel would strike thousands of targets in the coming days and urged Iranians to seize a rare chance to overthrow the Islamic Republic.

    “In the coming days we will strike thousands of targets of the terror regime,” Netanyahu said on X, adding that Israel would create conditions for the brave people of Iran to free themselves from the chains of despotism....

    ....MORE 

    Iran International front page

    "Iran to form interim council to oversee transition after Khamenei’s killing"

    From AFP via Al Jazeera, March 1:

    Security chief Ali Larijani pledges swift establishment of a provisional council as Iran navigates its leadership transition.

    Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani says the leadership transition after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will begin on Sunday.

    “An interim leadership council will soon be formed. The president, the head of the judiciary and a jurist from the Guardian Council will assume responsibility until the election of the next leader,” said Larijani, the head of Iran’s top security body, the Supreme National Security Council. He was also an adviser to Khamenei, 86, who was killed in a joint attack on Iran by the United States and Israel on Saturday.

    “This council will be established as soon as possible. We are working to form it as early as today,” he said in an interview broadcast by state TV.

    Larijani accused the US and Israel of trying to plunder and break apart Iran and warned “secessionist groups” within Iran of a harsh response if they attempt action, state media said....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    And at the Times of Israel, March 1:

    Massive explosions rattle Tehran as Israel, Iran trade blows after supreme leader killed

    Saturday, February 28, 2026

    "How 3G Capital, the lean and secretive private equity firm, created some of the world's largest companies"

    From Colossus, February 2026:

    Built to Own 

    At two in the morning on September 2, 2010, the 37th floor of 600 Third Avenue was dark except for the boardroom. At one end, 3G Capital’s chief financial officer was arranging papers across the conference table. At the other, two junior lawyers checked signatures under the hospital lights.

    Burger King’s board had agreed to sell the company for $4.1 billion to 3G Capital, but the firm was obscure enough that the previous day The Wall Street Journal had mistaken it for a different company entirely. The deal would be one of the largest buyouts since the financial crisis.

    Outside, Manhattan’s towers blinked in the late summer heat. Three hours earlier, across the river in Queens, Andy Roddick had been knocked out of the US Open by an unseeded player in the second round. Somewhere in the city, he was probably still awake.

    So was Daniel Schwartz, sitting in an airport hotel room in Miami with a phone to his ear. He was 29 years old, a partner at 3G, and he had until the New York Stock Exchange opened in seven hours to secure $2.4 billion in debt financing. At six in the morning, as planes began flying into the sunrise over Biscayne Bay, the lawyers in New York confirmed the documents were set.

    The debt remained a problem, as it had been since 3G began talks with Burger King in March. It was 2010, the scars of the financial crisis were still raw, and in Europe, fresh wounds were opening by the week. Schwartz got married in May, though there was little time to celebrate. Greece needed rescuing by the IMF and EU, which unsettled markets and cast doubt on the eurozone itself. The kind of loan 3G needed to make a deal like this work all but disappeared.

    By late summer, JPMorgan agreed to split the financing with Barclays. They would each lend $1.2 billion. The deal was progressing quietly until Wednesday, September 1, when The Wall Street Journal reported that 3i Group, a private equity firm based in London, was buying Burger King. The stock jumped 15%. 3i’s spokeswoman jumped higher. “We’re not talking to Burger King, we have no interest in the company, and we’re not sure where this has come from.”

    The New York Stock Exchange halted trading and called John Chidsey, Burger King’s chairman and CEO. He had until Thursday’s opening bell at 9:30am to announce a deal or dismiss the rumors. Which was why, at two in the morning, the lawyers were still at it on the 37th floor. And why Schwartz, who still hadn’t slept and still hadn’t been on his honeymoon, was trying to get signatures from both banks before the market opened.

    Alex Behring, 3G’s co-founder and managing partner, had flown to Miami with Schwartz on Wednesday. At 9am on Thursday, he stood with Chidsey in a conference hall at Burger King’s headquarters on Blue Lagoon Drive, a burger flip from Miami airport and Schwartz’s hotel room. Several hundred employees had gathered to hear an announcement. The market opened in 30 minutes.

    Behring called Schwartz.

    “Can we go?”

    “No,” Schwartz replied. “The banks still haven’t signed the commitment papers.”

    Behring and Chidsey stood at the front of the room. A sea of eyes fixed upon them. After 15 eternal minutes, Schwartz called back.

    “We can go.”

    Burger King shares rose 25% to $23.59. The deal, a take-private acquisition priced at $24 per share, was a 46% premium to the stock price before rumors began circulating on Tuesday. It did not take long for analysts to weigh in. “The valuation is based on good fundamentals,” Reuters noted, “which Burger King does not have.”

    The deal included a “go shop” provision that allowed Burger King to solicit a better offer from other buyers over the course of the next month. Nobody expected another bid, and none came.

    Since Burger King’s founders had sold the business in 1967, the company had cycled through four owners and 19 CEOs. Franchisees were suing the business over a dollar double cheeseburger that cost them money with every sale. Growth and profitability trailed the industry, and Burger King’s shares had underperformed those of McDonald’s by 49% since the end of 2008.

    Even people on their own side had questions. Paul Fribourg had spent his entire career in food and agriculture. He was CEO of Continental Grain, and served on the boards of Estée Lauder and Loews. He had known 3G’s founders for 40 years, and Behring since he arrived in New York to set up the firm in 2004. When Behring called about Burger King, Fribourg cut to it.

    “Come on Alex,” he said. “You’re Brazilian. You’ve never worked in the US. You don’t know anything about the fast food industry. What are you going to do that these really smart American investors haven’t already done?”

    The smart Americans were Goldman Sachs, Bain Capital, and TPG. They had acquired Burger King in 2002 from Diageo, taken it public in 2006, and made multiples of their money along the way. In 2007, they began selling down their stake, having—surely—taken all the meat off its bone.

    In the carcass everyone assumed Burger King to be, Behring and Schwartz saw a business that would not die. It kept surviving its owners! And not just surviving. It had become the world’s second-largest hamburger chain. Schwartz sought outside counsel from his mother and fiancée. He asked them how big Burger King was relative to McDonald’s. They each said half the size. The actual number was one-sixtieth. The brand was bigger than the business. If they could fix some obvious problems—like not selling cheeseburgers at a loss—they’d make money. Their model projected they would triple their money in five years.

    “I honestly didn’t believe they could do what they were saying,” Fribourg told me. “But I liked Alex, Daniel, and their partners, so we wanted to give them a shot.” He wrote a check.

    Fifteen years later, the investment is up nearly 30 times. Burger King is now one piece of a $45 billion public business Behring and Schwartz have built: Restaurant Brands International (RBI). 3G owns a quarter of it. The annual dividend alone is four-fifths of what they paid for Burger King in 2010. It may be the greatest private equity deal in history, and they have no plans to exit.....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Don't mention the ketchup:

    Kraft Heinz cut expenses too deeply under private equity management, its new CEO says 

    —Business Insider, February 24 

    Also at Colossus, September 2025:

    How Thomas Peterffy built the machines that killed the trading floor and made Interactive Brokers into a $100 billion business