Saturday, October 31, 2026

"Ex-Google engineer quits saving for retirement over chilling AI apocalypse prediction"

Sounds a bit like Millenarianism, here's hoping he doesn't found a cult.

From the New York Post, October 30:

A former Google AI expert is so convinced artificial intelligence will wipe out humanity that he’s stopped saving for retirement.

Machine learning researcher Nate Soares, who has worked as a software engineer at Google and Microsoft, said in a recent podcast episode with the CEO of The Atlantic that AI is more likely than not to wipe out humanity within the next decade.

Soares pegs the possibility of AI-driven extinction at over 50 percent over the next ten years.

“I guess right now it looks like we probably don’t have a decade on the clock,” Soares continued, adding that it’s “more than 50% that we don’t have a decade at this point.”

A decade ago, he said he stopped putting money toward his retirement, driven by this belief.

“I do not save for retirement now,” Soares said. “I have a 401K from when I worked at Google, but I haven’t contributed to it for like a decade.”

Soares is currently the president of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, a Berkeley nonprofit known for promoting “AI doomerism,” which is the belief that developing superintelligent AI will likely result in human extinction....

....MUCH MORE 

Hmmm, he may already be in a cult.

Which gives us the range of possible outcomes:

1) He's right and dies poor while many die rich. Everyone dies.

2) Heaven's Gate or Jonestown mass suicides. True believers shuffle off this mortal coil, rest survive.

3) Most probably, a replay of the reaction to Prophet/preacher William Miller's prognostication that 1844 would see the second coming of Jesus Christ.

When it didn't happen the non-event became known among his 100-thousand or so followers as "The Great Disappointment". 

"OpenAI slashes funding target by $10 billion amid tech rout, FT reports"

From Reuters, October 30:

OpenAI has slashed the target for its latest funding round by $10 billion amid a selloff in tech stocks ​driven by AI worries, the Financial Times reported on Friday, ‌citing people with knowledge of the matter.
 
The ChatGPT maker is now seeking about $20 billion and its desired valuation has dropped to $1.25 trillion from $1.4 billion, the report ​said.
 
OpenAI set a Friday deadline for investors to commit to ​the funding round, but the "first close" is expected to raise ⁠less than $20 billion after some investors reduced their allocations, it ​added.
 
A consortium of UAE investors that includes state-backed technology fund MGX is ​expected to be the largest participant in the round, and as part of the deal, OpenAI would gain the option to lease newly developed computing capacity in ​the region, the newspaper added.
 
Venture capital firms including Founders Fund, Coatue, ​Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz are also expected to participate, according to the ‌report.
 
Wealthy ⁠individuals will have the option to invest in a subsequent retail offering at a $1.25 trillion valuation, the FT added....
....MORE 
 
Our post on October 22, "OpenAI nears up to $30 billion funding round at $1.25 trillion valuation led by UAE investors" exited with the thought that both the amount and the valuation seemed surreal, prompting a quick diversion to some of the Art Institute of Chicago's Surrealism collection including:

1938
René Magritte
 
Broken and Restored Multiplication, 1918–19
Suzanne Duchamp
 
Inventions of the Monsters, 1937
Salvador Dalí
 
Which titles seemed appropriate, in a surreal sort of way

"The new bottleneck in America’s AI build-out: A shortage of cheap money"

From the Wall Street Journal via MSN, October 30: 

For years, the companies behind America’s artificial-intelligence boom have raised hundreds of billions of dollars with ease. Wall Street eagerly ponied up capital and asked few questions.

Now, the balance of power is shifting.

Lenders and investors are getting choosier about where to place their bets and are demanding tougher terms, signaling a new phase in the AI build-out. Among their concerns: the prospect of delays in big projects as a grassroots political backlash to data centers gains traction, and the threat that AI-related profits from hyperscalers and startups such as Anthropic and OpenAI won’t materialize as fast as promised.

https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA2grzx4.img?w=768&h=619&m=6 

Plus, a flood of stock and bond offerings is compounding concerns that investors are getting overexposed to AI.

The new terms of trade are visible in every corner of markets. Bonds issued even by big tech companies such as SpaceX and Meta are trading at steep discounts. AI cloud companies such as CoreWeave, Nebius and Nscale that borrow big to build and sell capacity have effectively been shut out of the bond market in recent weeks, people familiar with the matter said.

Taken together, it all amounts to a buyer’s market for Wall Street. Even powerful players such as Broadcom are having to sweeten the terms offered to banks to secure loans. “The bar is going higher and higher in terms of proving to lenders that this investment will turn into sufficient revenue,” said Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer at Pimco. “The weak links are going to suffer first.”

Raising money in equity markets isn’t much easier. Nscale’s hopes of going public next month have been thwarted, while rival Lambda dialed back the valuation it was seeking in a new fundraising round, people familiar with the matter said. And OpenAI has raised less than half of the $30 billion it had initially targeted for its latest funding round, people familiar with the matter said.

The stock market is starting to reflect investors’ nervousness that the AI payoff might not arrive—at least in the near term. Disappointing earnings reports from technology companies this week prompted a rout in AI-related stocks and bonds, leading Friday to one of the biggest market selloffs since AI-mania began. Google parent Alphabet sustained its largest stock market wipeout ever Thursday, losing roughly $500 billion in market value, after quarterly results showed revenue from its core search business slowing while spending on AI infrastructure continues to surge.

Tremors in the market also shook chip-maker Intel, which saw its share price plummet 29% on Friday after the company reported weakness in its personal computer business. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite dropped 2.9% on Friday, its worst day since June. If the volatility continues, fundraising could grow even harder.

There is still money available for creditworthy companies. SpaceX this week announced it raised the biggest-ever financing for AI chips, a $40 billion package that will allow it to purchase the latest lineup of Nvidia chips.

Its record only lasted a few hours, when chip-design giant Broadcom sealed a $63 billion deal to lease chips to Anthropic. But even that deal showed the strains of the current environment: Broadcom Chief Executive Hock Tan had to personally intervene in negotiations at the last minute to calm banks’ nerves.

Even companies that can raise money fret about their suppliers’ ability to do so. Anthropic is aiming to raise up to $100 billion in a mid-November offering. In its IPO prospectus unveiled this week, it called out as a risk factor the financing constraints for the electrical-power providers its data centers rely upon.

Meta cited a desire to beat competitors to the punch when it unveiled a plan to raise up to $97.5 billion through a series of new stock offerings. In a securities filing, it pointed to recent and future offerings from the likes of Alphabet, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI as challenges to the depths of capital markets.

“Everybody is trying to raise money for their build-outs before the liquidity dries up,” said Ben Connard, chief investment officer of Carnegie Investment Counsel.

“Ultimately, there might not be enough money to fund this build-out,” he said. “Financing could be the ultimate crunch that slows things down.”....

....MUCH MORE 

Friday, October 30, 2026

Berlin Boarding Up Shops Ahead Of Tomorrow's Peaceful Protests

From AFP via Yahoo News, October 30:

Germans to join Europe's youth protest wave 

Tens of thousands of young Germans are set to demonstrate on Saturday, the latest in a wave of protests across Europe led by youths who complain political elites are ignoring their concerns.

From France to Italy and Spain, young protesters have taken to the streets in recent weeks to make their voices heard, with demonstrations sometimes degenerating into serious violence.

In Germany, about 150,000 people have so far registered to turn out Saturday in around 30 cities, including Berlin, Frankfurt and Cologne, for protests led by a group dubbed "GenZ regelt!" (Gen Z has got this!).

While the movement has stressed it rejects all violence, police are taking no chances and are deploying thousands of officers, while some luxury jewellery shops and clothing stores are boarding up their windows to ward off potential looters.

The protest movement has a range of complaints, from high cost of living to poorly maintained schools, government spending cuts and, more broadly, what it sees as politicians deciding on policies with apparently little regard for the younger generation.

"We are young people who no longer want to sit back and watch while decisions are made about our future without us being heard," said a statement from the group, which describes itself as a non-partisan alliance.

"Wherever we look, we see crises and hardly any prospects for us."

Spending cuts are being made in areas ranging from education to culture and healthcare, they say.

"The cuts are being made at our expense, while big corporations continue to profit and billions flow into rearmament."

They are also unhappy with Germany's bid to boost its military through a new voluntary service model, and fear that mandatory conscription could be reintroduced....

....MUCH MORE 

Although many of the pictures floating around the internet are of the haute establishments on the Ku'damm the preparations are going on in quite a few areas. 

From The Berliner:

Berlin Prepares for Gen Z Protests 

Several shops on Kurfürstendamm have boarded up their premises in advance of the demonstrations this weekend. 

Berlin security authorities say they have no information regarding specific calls for violence at this Saturday’s protest, but they are preparing for a major operation. This is due to a call to protest by the initiative ‘Gen Y regelt’ (Gen Z rules), which is planned to take place all day on Halloween. As a result, approximately 1,500 additional police officers will be deployed on October 31. According to operations manager Stephan Katte, water cannons will also be on standby....

https://www.the-berliner.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/imago0871332664h-scaled.jpg 

....MUCH MORE 

I wonder if our Afghani refugee ever made it to Berlin:

"Uganda receives 51 out of expected 2,000 Afghan refugees"

 Oh dear. You can just imagine the conversation: 

"What's this? Kampala? There must be some mistake, I signed up for the Berlin package: Ku'damm, techno, Tiergarten, last of the hipsters. Not Uganda." 

Earlier today:

Probable Berlin Mayor Slips Up, Sends Private Thoughts To Der Spiegel

Meanwhile, At ZeroHedge: "The World Will End If Nvidia Misses Earnings"

From one of their favorite non-Tyler Durden contibutors, October 30:

I’d like to think I’m being hyperbolic with this title…but, you know…I might not be.

Here’s the rub this fine Thursday afternoon. Both Google and Amazon just missed earnings expectations the last two days, both stocks are getting their teeth kicked in, and the Nasdaq has fallen -1.4% during regular trading before shedding another -1.4% after hours today. The 3:55PM “dip buyers” were down another -1.4% by 4:30PM.

It got me thinking about something truly terrifying.

I’ve joked for years that the powers that be would sooner allow Nvidia to commit massive accounting fraud in broad daylight than permit the company to admit it wasn’t going to make its earnings numbers. After all, hanging in the balance at this point is seemingly the entire multitrillion-dollar global financial ecosystem.

The joke, of course, is that Nvidia has become so systemically important to the market’s psychology that a disappointing quarter would practically constitute a national emergency. I sometimes wonder whether the Federal Reserve would have to establish a special lending facility just to bail out Nvidia. Again…I’m only half joking.

But seriously. Close your eyes for a second. Meditate. Breathe deeply.

Now imagine Nvidia misses earnings. It would be fu*king fire and brimstone. Locusts descending from the heavens. Rivers turning to blood. Famine, plague, pestilence, “dogs and cats, living together,” to quote Peter Venkman in Ghostbusters....

 Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and
 opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.

....MORE 

Whereas I, on this Friday ahead of the weekend preceding the mid-term elections, am leaning towards:

Dear SEC, CFTC:

Are you seeing anything unusual in options on Nasdaq 100 futures and/or single stock options?

Asking for a friend.

Yr. pal,

Climateer 

 

24 hours of E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures via TradingView 

Probable Berlin Mayor Slips Up, Sends Private Thoughts To Der Spiegel

This is a machine translation of Der Spiegel's cover story, 29 October.

https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/51f55685-3ec5-4abc-89fb-abea75bb3070_w2048_r1.778_fpx41_fpy45.webp 

https://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/index-2026-45.html 

Berlin Left Party frontwoman 

Elif Eralp reveals fear of terror sympathizers  

Elif Eralp wants to be Berlin's ruling mayor. But in an internal note, the left-wing politician shows that she is afraid of terrorist sympathizers with contacts with Hamas. Can anyone like that be responsible for security in the capital? The SPIEGEL title story.

From Christoph Hickmann, Marina Kormbaki, Ulrich Kraetzer, Anna Reimann, Marc Röhlig and Hannes Schrader
29.10.2026, 08.04 am • from DER SPIEGEL 45/2026

On Wednesday morning at 9.46 a.m., an email arrives at the SPIEGEL Capital Office, from which Elif Eralp Certainly not wanted her to be sent. The mail contains a document in which the Berlin Left frontwoman reveals that she is afraid. To herself and her family. The document discloses how it is really about internal security in Germany's capital. 

She and her husband, Eralp writes, are “frightened of these people.” This refers to pro-Palestinian terrorist sympathizers with contacts to Hamas. The woman who wants to bego mayor obviously has so much fear of them that they don't even call their names, don't want to talk publicly about them.

The document it's about is the authorized version of a detailed interview two SPIEGEL people conducted with Eralp on Monday morning, two days before the mail. After that, the usual procedure began after such conversations: The SPIEGEL people turned it into a written version and sent it to Eralp's press officer. The interviewee was then able to edit this version, adjust his own answers. So far, so normal. But on Eralp's side, an oversight happens. 

The Word document, which arrives at SPIEGEL on Wednesday morning, includes comments, deletions, notes that Eralp, your speaker and at least one other person did while editing. This, unadorned, is captured how the woman who wants to rule Berlin really feels in this city: no longer safe. She is afraid of people with whom some of her party friends maintain close contacts. 

"I cannot put myself and my family in danger for the MIRROR," writes Eralp. 

That's how far it's come.

For a long time, it has been an open secret in the capital that the security authorities only get to grips with the situation here with difficulty. That there are neighborhoods, streets, milieus where the state has to fight for control. In which own rules apply and the German rule of law does not count much. 

This becomes publicly visible, for example, when Israeli flags are burning in the city. Or if a 100-kilogram gold coin is stolen from one of the most important museums in the city. Then the capital briefly spooks. Otherwise, it seems, many in Berlin have arranged themselves with the fact that both organized crime and organized hatred of Israel have spread here. 

There are links from both milieus to the left. When Eralp won the election to the House of Representatives in September, a city-famous clan chief and a publicly known Hamas sympathizer dived on an election night Left- Election party in Neukölln on. Since then, the headlines haven't ripped off. 

Eralp tried to keep all this as far away as possible – and from the exploratory talks on a red-green-red state government. Eralp admitted mistakes in the left, distanced himself from individual party friends, confessed to Israel's right to exist. 

The Anti-Semit in their own ranks, their people's contacts with terrorist sympathizers? Everything reprehensible, everything problematic, but just individual cases, so her message could be summarized. Nothing you can't get to grips with. Not a big, no comprehensive problem. 

Now it turns out: The problem is much bigger than thought. And the question arises: Can a woman who is too afraid to confirm the name of a terrorist sympathizer in an interview be responsible for the safety of all Berliners? 

Monday morning, shortly after half past eleven, Eralp's office in the Berlin House of Representatives. The candidate greets her visit from the SPIEGEL with a slightly cold. For the photographer, she quickly clears her pink bicycle helmet from the picture. On the desk is a book by economist Isabella M. Weber: “Anti-fascist economic policy.” 

How does she find the book? She just got that, Eralp says. No time had yet to look in. 

Then the interview starts. The SPIEGEL asks about anti-Semitism in the ranks of the left, after the MPs Vanessa Emde, the states deny the right to exist and thus obviously target Israel. 

Eralp answers calmly, matter-of-factly. Her line: She was not aware of the full extent of the problem. She knew, of course, Eralp that especially in the district association Neukölln many of her party friends on the topic Palestine Be very committed – but she did not think that there could also be border crossings at individual events during the election campaign. 

At this point, SPIEGEL ponders: “By this you mean the terrorist sympathizer Ibrahim Ibrahim, who the chief planner of the Hamas raid on Israel on 7. October 2023 has called ‘martyr’s heroes’ and was at the election party in Neukölln.«
Eralp’s answer, which should not be quoted here formally due to lack of authorization, but which simply cannot be described differently: yes. 

After that, the conversation continues. Eralp seems annoyed at some point that it remains so long on the subject of anti-Semitism. She would rather talk even longer about her heart issues, about rent policy and how she wants to expropriate large real estate companies to nationalize their apartments. After an hour, the conversation is over, the SPIEGEL people say goodbye. 

“What am I doing now? I should never have promised this interview.”
—Elif Eralp in an internal note 

The next day, Tuesday morning, they send the written version to Eralp's spokesman. Actually, it is agreed that he will return the authorized interview on Tuesday evening. But the matter is delayed. It'll take until the next day. 

When the SPIEGEL people open the file on Wednesday morning, they immediately notice the comments and annotations in the text and next to the text, from Eralp's office, her spokesman and from Kerstin Wolter, the state chairman of the Berlin Left. This is unusual. And something else is unusual. 

According to the usual rules, the interviewees are not allowed to change the questions of the journalists, only in their own answers. But in the authorized version, a question and an answer are deleted: the question of the terrorist sympathizer Ibrahim. And Eralp's "Yes." 

Eralp apparently has this a note written in the text: “There is a PROBLEM”, it says in square brackets. Eralp then mentions a man’s first name and writes that he “does not want to, my husband, and neither do I, call concrete names, he is afraid of these people and so am I.” With that, Eralp reveals what it looks like in her. And how she wrestles with herself. 

Her spokesman said, "I can't delete questions from the journalists," Eralp writes. “What am I doing now? I should never have promised this interview.”
Then she makes reference to a recommendation that the state criminal investigation office apparently gave her in the past when it came to her public approach to the issue of organized crime (OK). “The LKA said at the time that they recommend never to give specific names. Back then, it was about OK. Now it’s about people with contacts with Hamas. I can't put myself and my family in danger for the SPIEGEL. What are we gonna do now? Cancel the whole interview?" 

At the latest here, Eralp's tone of voice seems downright desperate. She's looking for a way out. She writes: “I have so far called several incidents, among other things. Ibrahin condemns this in general, now it is present individually."
Perhaps that is the most important sentence of the whole passage. Because he shows how great Eralp's fear is. She does not dare to confirm a name that the MIRROR calls her – because it would be so “present”. Here writes a woman who is apparently convinced to fear the good of her loved ones and her own. 

You have to go to those of Joanne K. Rowling Created world of Harry Potter think. The magicians in this world do not dare to pronounce the name of the feared dark magician Lord Voldemort, because they fear, then bad things will happen to them.
But this is not the world of Harry Potter, this is the Federal Republic of Germany. Law and order apply here. Or? 

What is revealed in the few sentences of the Elif Eralp is an abyss. In a city where the potential next head of state writes something like this, not in her diary, but in a document she shares with her own people, with her spokesman, her country chairman, can no longer seriously speak of internal security. That is why SPIEGEL has decided to make the process public. 

In a mail, Eralp's spokesman told SPIEGEL on Wednesday afternoon that Eralp, as a mayoral candidate, had been subjected to daily insults, threats and hostilities for months. “In view of this general threat, security agencies advise against addressing individual political problems in public statements, especially when media reporting on their alleged links to organised crime or terrorist organizations.” That is why Eralp’s office has asked SPIEGEL to “take into account Ms Eralp’s personal security interests.” 

As the ruling mayor, Eralp would be the head of the State government, would determine the guidelines of the policy and, for example, use the interior senator responsible for the police. It would thus at least indirectly set the security policy course in the city. It would be intolerable if a ruling mayor made important political statements or possibly decisions dependent on her being personally or close family members afraid of certain people or groups. And she would be under pressure as a representative of a party that is critical of the police in parts anyway. 

There were reasons that spoke against a publication, especially Eralp's security concerns. But the political significance of her note weighs heavier from the point of view of the editors. According to SPIEGEL, the public must know about it.
The process shows how far the power of extremist and criminal circles now extends. Berlin has been fighting clan crime for years, but despite spectacular judicial actions such as the seizure of 77 properties in the milieu, the problem does not get a complete grip on. In addition, gangs of the Turkish-Kurdish Gen Z Mafia appeared, which fired several shots at shops to extort protection money. Berlin, so much can be said, is also the capital of crime. 

What are these people Eralp is afraid of?
Ibrahim Ibrahim is considered one of the most important propagandists of the radical pro-Palestine community in Berlin, the scene whose followers repeatedly attract attention with anti-Israel and anti-Semitic slogans. Ibrahim, a leading figure of the United Palestinian National Committee, exerts his influence: VPNK. The Berlin constitutional protection has classified the grouping as extremist. The VPNK is therefore the umbrella organization for supporters of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and Hamas. 

The role of the Islamist Hamas has been since its terror attack on Israel on 7 at the latest. October 2023 well known. The secular-oriented PFLP, founded in 1967, gained sad notoriety in Germany when some of its terrorists kidnapped the Lufthansa aircraft »Landshut« in 1977. The EU and the US have classified the PFLP as a terrorist organization. 

Ibrahim comes from the PFLP according to findings of the security authorities. He also sympathizes with Hamas. The chief planner of the raid on Israel, which has since been killed Yahya Sinwar, he celebrated as a “martyr’s hero.” 

The security authorities regularly deal with Ibrahim because of Ibrahim's propaganda activities, according to information from the SPIEGEL. There are no indications that the 70-year-old may have been involved in violent actions or even in attack planning in Germany, it is said. 

Ibrahim himself, in a recent statement, resisted a "lump sum general suspicion" against him. "I firmly reject the accusation of supporting terrorism," he said. “I reject anti-Semitism, racism, religious discrimination, and any form of ethnic exclusion.” The killing and expulsion of Palestinian civilians was condemned by Ibrahim. He did not mention the Hamas attack on Israel. 

Eralp’s fear of Ibrahim and the milieu of pro-Palestinian terrorist sympathizers is by no means typical of the Berlin Left. Parts of Eralp's party are seeking proximity to Ibrahim and his VPNK, they are partly openly cooperating with each other. Touch fears? Missing indication.... 

....MUCH MORE

Original -https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/linkenpolitikerin-elif-eralp-offenbart-angst-vor-terrorsympathisanten-a-94a0c067-ce3d-4435-9e5d-0d2dc2fbb81e

"I&I/TIPP Poll Finds Surprising Level Of Apathy Among Swing Voters As Midterms Approach"

Over the years, first as Investor's Business Daily/TIPP and now as I&I/TIPP, these pollsters have established themselves as among the, if not THE most accurate in the business. 

From TIPP Insights, October 30:

The media often spin a tale of despondent American voters sitting at home, unengaged and unwilling or unmotivated to vote. But the latest I&I/TIPP Poll suggests that’s not quite right. In fact, a solid majority of voters are quite interested in the outcome of the 2026 midterm congressional elections.

As the elections draw near, I&I/TIPP asked 1,328 registered voters: “On a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means ‘Not at all interested’ and 7 means ‘Extremely interested,’ how interested are you in the 2026 midterm elections?”

Among those taking the poll, roughly two-thirds — 68% — expressed high interest, with 53% selecting answer 7 and 15% picking just one step below that at 6, the two highest possible answers for interest in the election.

That compares to those with more lukewarm opinions (20% expressing “moderate” interest, with answers of 3-5) or an even smaller percentage picking “low” interest answers (9% picking lowest-ranked answers of just 1 or 2).

What’s more, the two major parties are nearly identical: it’s Democrats (76% “high” interest and 16% “moderate”) and Republicans (75% “high” interest and 18% “moderate”)....

....MUCH MORE 

"French economy unexpectedly shrank last quarter"

Ah, but the rebuilding from the riots will boost GDP in Q4.
(hopefully by enough to offset the decline in tourism) 
 
From Semafor, October 30: 
France’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter, adding to a pile of worries over the European power’s fortunes in the run-up to divisive presidential elections. The latest figures come with investors already concerned over rising debt levels, a yawning budget deficit, and mounting public frustration over service provision; recent polls suggest the far right and far left are in the lead ahead of April elections....
....MORE 

Martha Stewart: "These Are the Best Times to Shop at Thrift Stores, According to Experts"

From MarthaStewart.com, October 10:

Follow these tips so you can score big on your next shopping trip.

  • Shopping thrift stores at the right time can help you find unique treasures and make each visit more successful.
  • Thrift stores restock all week, but early visits suit big stores while midday may work better at smaller shops.
  • Visit often, ask about restocking, watch social media, and bring a list to spot good finds faster.

The thrill of the hunt is one of the joys of thrifting—who knows what treasures you may find on your next trip? Of course, your weekend thrift store trip may end with nothing at all, which is okay. But what if you knew the best time to head out to help ensure you come home with something unique?

We spoke with thrifting experts to learn when thrift stores typically restock their stores, the best time to find new treasures, plus more tips for making your next thrifting trip a success....

....MUCH MORE 

Other tips:

Monday, March 21, 2022

From B.O.:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOQCHpEXMA42Z3o?format=jpg&name=small

 https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tKROWdq8ioM/Ul7a-8WURXI/AAAAAAAADqI/DzoUTrjM6os/s640/marie-antoinette.jpg

"Eat brioche rather than bread."

Unfortunately, as the billionaire a16z co-founder brought to our attention in "Update To Bloomberg's Handy Inflation Hints From Marc Andreessen", the price of lentils had more than doubled in the year preceding the Bloomberg tweet.

Peasant, one way or another, you will eat lower on the protein pyramid. However, just this once, you may sniff my ribeye. 

Sunday, May 15, 2022 
Helpful Inflation Hints From Jeff Bezos' Washington Post
From the Washington Post:
With higher inflation, living with your parents makes economic sense

Capital Markets: "Greenback Dragged Lower by Questions of the AI Meme"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

The US dollar is finishing the week offered.  The proximate cause is the arguably softer rates and the as a result of new questions about the AI-meme, following the disappointing Amazon and Intel earnings news and guidance yesterday. This followed the robust Q3 US GDP report that underscore the significance of AI-related investment is fueling US growth (alongside consumption).  The eurozone reported stronger than expected Q3 GDP but the pressures in the European peripheral bond market have not gone away.  This week, the French 10-year premium is slightly more than six basis points wider, and the Italian premium has widened by about five basis points. At the same time, front month Brent and WTI futures contracts are at new highs. December WTI approached $105 and January Brent poked above $114. 

The Bank of Japan completed this week’s central bank meetings, and as widely expected, left the overnight target at 1.25%.  Like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to hike rates in December. Five G10 central banks met this week and four more meet next week.  The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England are most likely to hike.  Norway’s Norge Bank is expected to stand pat, while Sweden’s Riksbank is the closest call and the swaps market favors a hike.

Prices...

....MUCH MORE 

"Amazon falls 7%, Intel plunges 25% in premarket trading, as pressure mounts after earnings"

From CNBC, October 30: 

  • Amazon shares fell after it reported negative free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter.
  • Intel fell as well after reporting earnings.
  • Investors are nervous about the massive AI spending from the tech giants and whether that will pay off. 

Amazon and Intel  shares were down in premarket trading on Friday after they reported September quarter numbers that disappointed investors, dragging Nasdaq futures down 2% and capping off a week of rough tech earnings.

Amazon shares were down 7% in premarket trading, while Intel was down 25%.

Amazon reported a third-quarter miss on the top and bottom line while maintaining its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 of $220 billion this year. Amazon also reported negative free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter, much larger than the previous period.

Intel issued weaker-than-expected guidance, citing ongoing softness in the PC market.

Chip stocks including Micron Nvidia and Arm were lower in premarket trade in the U.S., while major European semiconductor names, including ASM, saw sharp declines. 

A tough week for tech earnings
Investors are nervous about the massive AI spending from the tech giants and whether that will pay off.On Thursday, Alphabet shares closed 13% lower, its worst single-day drop in history after it too reported ballooning negative free cash flow.

Microsoft shares rose after it remained cash flow positive in the September quarter.

Nasdaq-100 futures were down 2% in early trading as tech stocks remained under pressure, which could put the tech-heavy index into negative territory this week. Even with the recent fall, the Nasdaq Composite index is up more than 12% year-to-date as of Thursday’s close.

“I don’t think this is a moment of reckoning but I think it’s a moment where investors should take a long thought about how positioning across the space still remains crowded even though the fundamentals are strong,” Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday....

....MORE 

Also at CNBC:

Nasdaq-100 futures fall 2% as Amazon and Intel tumble after earnings: Live updates

Thursday, October 29, 2026

"El Salvador sends 2,000 troops to Haiti to rescue four missing soldiers"

Those Haitian gangbangers may have made a big mistake.

From the BBC, October 28:

El Salvador has deployed more than 2,000 soldiers to Haiti as part of a mission to retrieve four nationals who went missing in the Caribbean country almost two weeks ago.

The "robust deployment" was communicated by El Salvador President Nayib Bukele to the Prime Minister of Haiti Alix Didier Fils-Aime earlier this week, the foreign ministry of El Salvador said in a statement on Wednesday.

Bukele said the soldiers would also assist ongoing "security efforts against gangs in Haiti", the statement continued.

Tensions between the two central American countries have escalated over the disappearance of the four air force technicians working as part of a UN-backed anti-gang organisation in Haiti.

The four soldiers with the Gang Suppression Force (GSF) were travelling back to their base in an armoured vehicle when they were ambushed in an area of the Caribbean island nation controlled by armed groups called Croix-des-Bouquets.

No gang has so far claimed responsibility.

The Salvadoran foreign ministry said the "large-scale operation" was "supported by various countries and international organisations".

Earlier this week, Haiti handed four bodies over to special forces claiming they belonged to those of the missing servicemen, but Bukele said they did not match.

He said one of the corpses was a child's and another was wearing a different country's military uniform.

Bukele threatened last week in an X post to wipe out Haiti's gangs, saying he will replicate action he has taken in El Salvador, if they did not release the Salvadorans....

....MORE 

From El Salvador INFO, October 21: 

El Salvador Homicide Rate: From the World’s Most Violent Country to a Regional Security Model 

The El Salvador Homicide Rate has dropped dramatically in recent years, marking a major change for a country that once struggled with some of the world’s highest levels of violence.

For decades, gang activity, organized crime, and widespread insecurity affected everyday life. Today, the country’s declining homicide numbers have become a central part of discussions about public safety and security in El Salvador.

Understanding these changes requires more than looking at annual statistics. Historical trends, government security policies, and questions about how authorities classify deaths all help explain El Salvador’s changing homicide figures.

 

El Salvador Homicide Rate
Year Total Homicides Daily Homicide Rate Homicides per 100,000 Inhabitants
2026 (Oct 20) 49 0.17 0.96
2025 82 0.22 1.36
2024 114 0.31 1.89
2023 156 0.43 2.4
2022 495 1.36 7.8
2021 1152 3.16 18.1
2020 1341 3.67 21.2
2019 2398 6.57 35.8
2018 3346 9.17 50.4
2017 3962 10.85 60.2
2016 5280 14.47 81.0
2015 6656 18.24 106.3
2014 3921 10.74 61.3
2013 2513 6.88 40.6

....MUCH MORE 

"AWS growth hits 39%, its fastest in nearly five years, as Amazon misses on earnings" Stock Extends Decline (AMZN)

From GeekWire (Seattle's own), October 29: 

Amazon Web Services revenue grew 39% to $46 billion in the third quarter, its fastest pace in nearly five years, and Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said he expects the cloud unit to top 40% growth in both 2027 and 2028.

That wasn’t enough for investors. Amazon posted earnings of $1.89 per share, well short of the $1.97 analysts expected, as higher interest costs on its growing debt and other losses ate into its profit, even though its operating income beat expectations.

Revenue of $201.9 billion, up 12%, came in just under estimates. Shares fell more than 7% in after-hours trading, after closing down 4% during the regular session.

Bar and line chart of AWS quarterly net sales and operating income from Q1 2016 to Q3 2026, with sales reaching $46.0 billion, up 39%, and operating income $17.8 billion. 

Amazon may need to count on its legendary willingness to be “misunderstood for long periods of time.” In the company’s earnings release, Jassy said Amazon’s retail business is gaining market share with improving margins. Retail sales, including online stores, physical stores and third-party seller services, totaled nearly $500 billion over the past 12 months, and AWS is now at a $184 billion annual revenue run rate.

“There has never been a trillion dollar revenue business, and we may have two of them in the next 5-10 years,” he said....

....MUCH MORE 

Earlier at GeekWire (we did not link): 

Amazon earnings preview: AWS is booked up, and Wall Street wants to know what comes next 

After falling  $10.81 (-4.25%) during the regular session the stock is down another $16.175 (-6.63%) in early afterhours action,  $227.615 last.

Elsewhere, Intel had a bear market in an hour after a beat-but-no-raise but has bounced a little, currently down $15.00 (−16.29%).

"Head of California high-speed rail agency resigns amid travel expenses scandal"

Ironically, none of the travel was on California high-speed rail.*

From CalMatters, October 29:

The CEO of California’s high-speed rail authority resigned late Wednesday, saying he needs to focus on “important personal and family priorities,” according to a copy of the emailed resignation obtained by CalMatters....

*Mainly because, after eighteen years and $13.8 - 15 billion spent—not just allocated, spent—there is not even one mile of California high-speed rail: 

...California voters in 2008 approved a $10 billion bond to build a bullet train connecting San Francisco to Los Angeles by 2020, with a projected cost of $45 billion. But progress stalled amid rising costs, legal fights and funding uncertainties. 

The authority’s latest business plan said the project could now cost between $126 billion and $231 billion, with the current 171-mile leg between Merced and Bakersfield under construction, and a full buildout expected by 2040....

October 2022
France Tried To Warn California That The California High-Speed Rail Plan Was A $100 Billion Farce

We've been posting on the massive grift and fraud that is the California HSR for many, many years. The New York Times just did a feature on the project that is not nearly as hard-hitting as it could be, being disingenuous from the headline on:

How California’s Bullet Train Went Off the Rails

It was never "on" The Rails, a fact that was pointed out over a decade ago.

However, to their credit, the Times writers and editors included this vignette: 

....The state was warned repeatedly that its plans were too complex. SNCF, the French national railroad, was among bullet train operators from Europe and Japan that came to California in the early 2000s with hopes of getting a contract to help develop the system.

The company’s recommendations for a direct route out of Los Angeles and a focus on moving people between Los Angeles and San Francisco were cast aside, said Dan McNamara, a career project manager for SNCF.‌

The company‌ ‌pulled out in 2011. “There were so many things that went wrong,” Mr. McNamara said. “SNCF was very angry. They told the state they were leaving for North Africa, which was less politically dysfunctional. They went to Morocco and helped them build a rail system.”

Morocco’s bullet train started service in 2018.....

There you have it, North Africa is less politically corrupt than California. Just amazing.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent Has Some Advice/Threats/Warnings For The Iranian People

Highlights via Open Source Intel, video from Iran International:

BigLaw, BigFail: "Weil Gotshal & Manges to dissolve"

Two from The Lawyer. First up, the headliner, October 28:

Weil Gotshal & Manges is preparing to dissolve, marking one of the most dramatic collapses in BigLaw history.

The 95-year old New York firm has suffered a series of high-profile exits to rival firms following the departure of M&A partner Michael Aiello to Cravath Swaine & Moore.

With 1,200 lawyers and 16 offices, Weil – a prestigious firm which made $2.1bn in revenue last year – will rank among the biggest ever collapses for the legal market.

In a statement on Wednesday, the firm said:

“For more than 90 years, Weil, Gotshal & Manges has had the privilege of advising clients on some of their most consequential matters.

“Following a careful review of strategic alternatives, the Firm’s Management Committee has recommended to the partnership that the Firm pursue an orderly wind-down. The partners are expected to vote in the coming days.

“During the wind-down process over the coming months, the Firm will continue serving clients with the dedication and excellence that have defined it since its founding and will remain committed to supporting its colleagues.”

Michael Aiello, one of the world’s leading M&A partners, began a flurry of partner exits last month....

....MUCH MORE 

And October 29:

“This is a culture issue”: Weil insiders vent about shock collapse of New York firm 

As Weil prepares to wind down operations after almost a century of legal practice, some lawyers who have spoken with The Lawyer expressed frustration with leadership and seem bemused at the situation given the financial health of the Wall Street firm.

On 28 October Weil’s management committee – led by Barry Wolf in the closing weeks of his 16-year tenure as executive partner – gathered all partners at 2pm Eastern Time. They were informed that the firm would be dissolved. With 1,200 lawyers and 16 offices, Weil – which turned over $2.1bn in revenue last year – will rank among the largest ever law firm collapses.

Among its most significant liabilities, the size of firm’s real estate spend could become a focal point, experts have suggested, as the firm dissolves. Weil’s real estate spending currently stands at roughly £4.3m in London and is estimated to be over $50m in New York, according to analysis by The Lawyer.

One firm insider was keen to stress the fiduciary health of the firm, however, and saw it as a point of contention given the decision to wind down. “There are no financial problems,” the partner told The Lawyer. “The firm is more than $2bn in revenue. It’s operating in normal course, with big receivables coming. The pension liability is largely funded and managed.”

Despite apparently solid finances, Weil was on track to see a black hole in its results for 2027. Though the bulk of the losses would not yet appear in its 2026 financials due to healthy retrievable funds even from exiting rainmakers, the following year would have seen a dent perhaps worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

But if financial pressures were not the cause for Weil’s demise, then what was?

Culture wars

Polarised opinions have emerged within the transactional groups. There were those at Weil who wished for the firm to retain the elite star culture it was renowned for, and those whose argument was that the firm ought to pursue growth in the private equity market. The former camp felt that the election of Ramona Nee to lead the firm reflected Wolf’s dogged determination to grow the firm’s private equity franchise at all costs.

One source said Wolf “doubled down on bankruptcy and PE”, while another reckons the leader allowed public M&A to become “the wicked witch” or “the big bad wolf”. That person went on: “From their point of view, Aiello was an impetus to growth. So when he left, why weren’t they like: ‘Now the sky’s the limit, the weight is off my neck’? They were paper tigers.”

Some commentators have suggested Mike Aiello was responsible for more than $200m, although that figure seems to others to be overblown. Though he was not the first senior partner to take leave of the firm, his departure was the splashiest – and it is easy to see why. The six-partner departure struck a blow to Weil’s collective confidence.

Historically, Weil’s leadership placed a lot of stock in the firm’s bankruptcy business. John Bringardner, head of Debtwire, said the collapse is “particularly bittersweet for the law firm that built the modern bankruptcy practice in the US”. Bringardner noted Weil’s share of restructuring mandates had “diminish[ed] in recent years as partners have left for other big shops”. The firm’s former global restructuring co-chair Ray Schrock, for example, landed at Latham & Watkins in 2024....

....MUCH MORE

Quanta Services Earnings Call Transcript, October 29, 2026 (PWR)

The stock is trading up $35.77 (+5.89%) at $642.67.

From Benzinga, October 29:

Quanta Services (NYSE:PWR) reported third-quarter financial results on Thursday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.

This transcript is brought to you by Benzinga APIs. For real-time access to our entire catalog, please visit https://www.benzinga.com/apis/ for a consultation.

View the webcast at https://investors.quantaservices.com/webcast-registration?event_id=10557

Summary
Quanta Services reported a strong third quarter 2026, surpassing expectations with double-digit growth in revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS, and a record backlog of $64 billion.

The company increased its full-year 2026 financial guidance, expecting revenues between $41.3 and $41.6 billion and adjusted EPS between $17.90 and $18.30.

Quanta Services emphasized its strategic flexibility and customer-focused approach, highlighting its ability to address demand across various markets, including utilities, power generation, and technology.

Significant investments in workforce training and integrated fabrication solutions are seen as key drivers for operational efficiency and future growth.

The company maintains a strong focus on capital deployment, completing two acquisitions to enhance its engineering, fabrication, and supply chain capabilities.

Management expressed confidence in sustaining growth, projecting strong double-digit adjusted EPS growth in 2027 and a positive outlook beyond 2030, supported by a stable backlog and strategic market positioning.

Full Transcript

OPERATOR

Good morning and welcome to the Quanta Services third quarter 2026 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow management’s prepared remarks, and we ask that you please hold all questions until that time. I will then provide instructions for the question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time.

I will now turn the call over to Kip Rupp, Vice President, Investor Relations, for introductory remarks.

Kip Rupp (Vice President, Investor Relations)

Thank you, and welcome everyone to the Quanta Services third quarter 2026 earnings conference call....

....MUCH MORE 

Earlier today:  Earnings: Quanta Services Reports, Beats, Stock Jumps (PWR)

The stock is up over $100 from its October 23 intermediate term low, $527.07, which seems a bit exuberant but on the other hand trading that low seemed a bit irrational so who knows.

That irrationality was why we posted "Ahead Of Quanta Services' And GE Vernova's Upcoming Earnings: Weeks Like This Are Why You Want To Own Quality (PWR; GEV)" that day.  

Here's the year-to-date price action via TradingView, up 51% over the period: 

 

Similar action in GE Vernova over the last week, $796.41 October 23 low, $894.56 last.

"Neoclouds such as Firmus must transform to survive: JPMorgan"

If Elon Musk is right that some 200 neocloud companies are at risk of having stranded investments due to financing problems, they will have to do more than transform. 

From the Australian Financial Review, October 29:

Investment giant JPMorgan Asset Management says neoclouds such as Firmus, Nscale, and CoreWeave must transform their debt-hungry business models if they are to survive in a higher interest rate environment.

Portfolio manager Oliver Cox, who covers the technology sector in the Asia Pacific for the $US4.8 trillion ($6.8 trillion) money manager, said the neoclouds had to move away from relying on debt to fund their expansion.

“The demand for compute [computing power] is incredibly strong … but does this business model work if rates go to 6, 7, or 8 per cent?” said Cox on the sidelines of JPMorgan’s media summit in Singapore.

“The market is very concerned about the impact of rates and how that filters through.”

Expectations of higher interest rates around the world have added to fears of an artificial intelligence bubble, and investors are worried about the astronomical level of spending on the technology.

Although the US Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday (Thursday AEDT), markets expect another rate rise in December.

In Australia, bond traders are starting to price in the prospect of a cash rate above 5 per cent next year.

The higher borrowing costs have made neoclouds – which rely heavily on debt to buy computer chips, lease space in data centres, and then rent the computing power to big technology customers – among the most vulnerable parts of the AI ecosystem....

....MUCH MORE 

"Alphabet falls 10% in premarket, putting it on course for its biggest ever post-earnings drop" (GOOG; GOOGL)

From CNBC, October 29:

  • Alphabet reported a larger negative free cash flow than analysts had expected while maintaining its spending guidance for the year.
  • Microsoft saw free cash flow fall but it remained positive ads its capex came in below expectations
  • If Alphabet shares fall more than 9.77% on Thursday, that would be its worst post-earnings reaction ever.

Alphabet shares were sharply down in premarket trading on Thursday while Microsoft rose as investors focused on the tech giants’ latest spending and free cash flow numbers in their third-quarter earnings.

Alphabet was 10% lower in premarket trade while Microsoft was nearly 4% higher.

If Alphabet closes more than 9.77% lower on Thursday, it would be its worst post-earnings reaction ever. The company went public in 2004.

Microsoft reported $45.2 billion in capital expenditures and finance leases during the third quarter, which was 30% higher than a year ago, but below analyst projections of $50.67 billion. Free cash flow fell 27% to $18.63 billion but remained positive.

Alphabet, in contrast, reported negative free cash flow of $9.07 billion for the third quarter, which fell much further than the $2.70 billion analysts expected by analysts. The Google parent maintained its full year capital expenditure guidance of between $195 billion and $205 billion....

...Search under pressure

Alphabet’s biggest source of revenue, search advertising, grew 12% in the September quarter to $63.35 billion, but missed analyst expectations, adding further pressure to the company’s shares....

....MUCH MORE 

GOOG is trading down 11.10% at $286.15.

As noted exiting yesterday's GeekWire articles on Microsoft:

The uptick in MSFT is not nearly enough to overcome the whack that GOOG and GOOGL are taking on Alphabet's advertising shortfall. Them being down around 9% each has the Nasdaq 100 futures down about 1%, 

Earnings: Quanta Services Reports, Beats, Stock Jumps (PWR)

In early pre-market trade the stock is up $31.47 (+5.18%) at $639.00. That is on top of Wednesday's $28.06 uptick.

From 24/7 Wall Street, October 29:

Quanta Services Q3 2026: Record $63.7B Backlog Signals Years of Grid and Data Center Work Ahead  

And from the company via PR Newswire, October 29:

QUANTA SERVICES REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2026 RESULTS

More to come after the regular session open. 

addendum from the company:  2026 Outlook Expectations Summary as of October 29, 2026

Capital Markets: "Gradualist Fed, AI Questions, and Slightly Firmer Greenback Ahead of ECB's Most Likely Stand Pat Decision"

From Marc to Market: 

The dollar is firmer than most of the G10 currencies today, in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting.  Fed Chair Warsh repeatedly noted that tightening of financial conditions since the September rate hike.  Yet, while recognizing that the tightening does not mean tight, the Federal Reserve stood pat. The market does not believe the Fed, nor have the markets tightened sufficiently to bring inflation to the target, which it has exceeded for six years.  Warsh seems to have implied a more gradualist approach to the rate adjustment, though the market continues to recognize a strong chance (~85%) of a hike in December. Without waiting for his task forces to report, Warsh announced there would be seven, rather than eight, live meetings in 2027 and six in 2028.  The other meetings will be devoted to strategy. 

Attention turns to the today’s ECB meeting and tomorrow’s BOJ meeting. Neither is expected to change policy, but the markets expected rate to be hiked in December.  Meanwhile, the earnings news from the AI ecosystem has been mixed. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX) has risen for the past four sessions and settled at a two-week high yesterday.  The rolling 30-day correlation between changes in the SOX and Dollar Index turned positive in recent days for the first time since late July....

....MUCH MORE  

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Reuters: "In China, the AI bubble has already burst"

I'm not sure that's how I would phrase it, the index in question is down 40% but it still trades around 40 100 times earnings.

From Reuters, October 25 and 27:

  • Mainland's AI-heavy STAR50 index down 40% from July high
  • Collapse could scuttle tech fundraising, new listings
  • Valuations still lofty vs US, pointing to further losses
While global tech stocks teeter, in China they have already crashed as lofty valuations collapse under worries about AI demand and curbs on Chinese exports.
 
The meltdown, tanking the mainland STAR50 index of AI and semiconductor leaders ​by 40% in less than four months and vaporising some $480 billion in market value, is an ill omen for wobbly world markets and a dampener on China's efforts ‌at encouraging its savers into stocks to fund the AI boom.
 
It has also slammed the brakes on a rally running two years, since economic stimulus promises sent shares soaring, and has stalled Beijing's push to break with a long boom-bust pattern and drive a "slow bull" market that delivers reliable performance. China's broad blue-chip index
has dropped about 20% from highs made in June.
 
"The stock market later evolved into a speculative crazy bull," said Beijing-based fund manager Dong Baozhen. "And now we see ​the bubble bursting."
 
The reversal reflects a rally that ran to higher heights than markets in the West or elsewhere in Asia, and compares with a mere prick to US AI stocks, which ​have led a 6% drawdown in the Nasdaq from a record high scaled three weeks ago.
 
There has been no obvious selling trigger in China, although ⁠traders said high prices, tax bills and the threat of the US or other nations banning Chinese equipment in data centres all contributed.
 
With AI stocks running to 42% of China's market capitalisation and 57% of ​turnover across mainland-listed A-shares and Hong Kong's H-shares, according to Goldman Sachs, few in a market dominated by small investors have escaped pain.

RETAIL FAVOURITES SLIDE

Shares in robot-maker Unitree...
....MUCH MORE 
 
If memory serves the Nasdaq-100 P/E got over 100 in 1999 but I haven't looked it up.
And the Star 50 is down another 3.79% today, off -48.61 to 1,234.33 CNY.