"National Average Falls 12 Cents in One Week"

It's a mid-term miracle!

And this is only to yesterday.

From the American Automobile Association:

November 05,2026

WASHINGTON, DC (November 5, 2026) – The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is down 12 cents from last week to $4.10. Gas prices have been going down for nearly two weeks, as crude oil has dipped back into the high $80 – low $90 per barrel range. But pump prices remain the highest they’ve ever been during this time of year. Before 2026, the national average had never gone above $4 per gallon during the month of November. Currently, the national average is more than one dollar higher than it was a year ago. 

Today’s National Average: $4.1003 

One Week Ago: $4.2258 

One Month Ago: $4.3653 

One Year Ago: $3.0790 

 

....MUCH MORE 

Diesel  is down to $6.2305 from $6.3204 the previous week

"'A blowout': US added 165,000 jobs in October, trouncing expectations"

From Yahoo Finance, November 6:

The US added 165,000 jobs in October, blowing past economists' expectations, as the labor market showed strength despite the Federal Reserve's recent rate hikes.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% amid a slight increase in labor force participation. September's underwhelming jobs report of 29,000 additions was also revised upward to 60,000 jobs.

"Consistent with prior, more partial indicators of the US labor market, the October Jobs Report came in very strong, across the board," economist Mohamed El-Erain posted on X.

 

Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, deemed the results "a blowout," in a post on X.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected a gain of about 70,000 jobs in October and saw the unemployment rate holding steady.

Wage growth increased 0.4% from September, better than expectations for 0.3% month-over-month growth. Annual earnings rose 3.1%, beating expectations, but likely still lower than the current rate of inflation....

....MUCH MORE 

"Germans are unironically nostalgic for the golden days of 1950s debt forgiveness"

Using Bastiat's observation as our starting point:

“Government is the great fiction through which everybody 
endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.” 

—The State, Frédéric Bastiat, 1848 

You can bet that over the next five years, U.S. cities like Chicago and states like New Jersey or Connecticut will be clamoring for either debt restructuring/forgiveness or their preferred wealth transfer: a Federal bailout.  

From Quartz, July 21, 2022:

Couples in voluminous A-line skirts, high-waisted pants with suspenders and liberally applied hair gel swing each other across the stage, Elvis’s Blue Suede Shoes echoing throughout the square.

It feels as if Danny Zuko will roll up in his hot rod any minute, but this isn’t a scene out of Grease. The dancers are in the otherwise sleepy German city of Wettenberg, whose half-timbered houses and cobblestone streets accommodated an estimated 70,000 visitors last weekend. They came for the “Golden Oldies” festival, which celebrates “the lifestyle and luxury” of the 1950s and 1960s, often thought of as a golden age that followed West Germany’s wartime devastation.

Held on July 25 and 26, it’s the one weekend of the year when Wettenberg’s medieval castle is not the main attraction. Among the largest of its kind in Europe, the annual fete captures the zippy ambience of Germany’s “Wirtschaftswunder”—the “economic miracle” that rekindled hope for many. After enduring years of price controls and Nazi-imposed rationing, new disposable income of the period suddenly allowed Germans to purchase cars, ovens, washing machines—modern status symbols that grew fashionable as West Germany became one of the richest countries in the world.

“People had the feeling things were improving; that they could achieve something,” said Thomas Brunner, the mayor of Wettenberg and a key organizer of the event, told Quartz. “People found joy in life again.” 

 The festival’s nostalgia for this era of burgeoning wealth holds particular resonance in today’s tense economic milieu. While Germans go retro to commemorate their own mid 20th century emergence from economic desolation, a “miracle” buoyed by debt cancellation, Greeks are standing in line for cash allowances, food, clothing and medicine.

[n.b. things have revered in four years]

Starting in the late 1940s just following the end of World War II, the West German Wirtschaftswunder ran approximately until the early 1970s. “Germans like this time because things were looking up,” Brunner said. “The people had done it—they had managed to leave behind the damage and backwards step of the war.” 

Morale certainly helped, but the international community’s 1953 forgiveness of half of Germany’s foreign debt following World War II underpinned the nation’s revitalization.

This relief facilitated then-finance minister Ludwig Erhard’s orchestration of the German economic recovery. Debt forgiveness meant Germans could turn their attention to building up the country, fueling the economy with both hard work and spending....

....MUCH MORE 

Hop in your Straßenkreuzer:

 

1948 Buick Roadmaster Convertible - SOLD at JP Frazier 

And life could be a dream, sweetheart. 

Capital Markets: "US Jobs Report Competes with the Unsettled Equity Market to Drive the Greenback"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

The US dollar is broadly stronger.  Against many G10 pairs, it is at its best level since Tuesday’s midterm elections.  Ahead of the US jobs report, the euro and sterling are holding on to small gains for the week. The Antipodean currencies and the Norwegian krona are off 1.5%-2.25% this week.

The sharp equity losses in recent days, reflecting, in part, questions over the AI meme, and the sharp drop in oil prices this week (December WTI is off 12.6%, even after yesterday’s 2.7% recovery and firmer prices today) are important drivers this week.  Ten-year yields in the G10 are off 2-14 bp this week, with nearly 14 bp decline in JGBs coming today. The 10-year Gilt yield eased the least—a little more than two basis points. A poor US jobs report can still roil the markets.  Ahead of the report, the Fed funds futures are discounting a little less than a 70% chance of a December Fed hike, which is the lower end of where it has been since early September....

....Data

•The focus is squarely on the US employment report. The median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey is for a 65k increase after 29k in September. The three-month moving average is 51k. The year-over-year pace of hourly earnings may dip...

 ....MUCH MORE

U.N. "FAO Food Price Index edges down in October, with commodity price indices easing except for sugar and vegetable oils"

From the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, November 6:

» The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI)* averaged 133.9 points in October 2026, down 1.6 points (1.2 percent) from its revised September level. Price indices for cereals, dairy and meat products decreased from the previous month, while the vegetable oil price index increased only marginally and the sugar price index rose markedly. Compared to a year earlier, the FFPI stood 7.5 points (5.9 percent) higher but remained 26.3 points (16.4 percent) below its March 2022 peak. 

» The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 116.8 points in October, down 5.5 points (4.5 percent) from September and 13.1 points (12.6 percent) below its October 2025 level. World wheat prices declined following four consecutive monthly increases, largely reflecting subdued international demand and an improving production outlook, particularly in Argentina. Expectations of easing constraints on Black Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline. International maize quotations also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, weighed down by harvest-related pressure in the United States of America, expectations of ample supplies in major exporting countries in South America, and renewed prospects for an easing of tensions in the Black Sea region. Among other coarse grains, barley and sorghum quotations declined in tandem with wheat and maize, with favourable crop prospects in Australia exerting further downward pressure on barley prices. By contrast, the FAO All Rice Price Index increased by 1.6 percent in October 2026, as harvest delays in some rice exporting countries added to the upward price pressure exerted by adverse weather conditions and rising costs.

» The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 199.2 points in October, up slightly by 0.6 points (0.3 percent) from September. The marginal rise in the index was mainly driven by higher soybean and sunflower oil quotations, which more than offset lower rapeseed oil prices, while palm oil prices remained virtually unchanged. World soybean oil quotations rose to their highest levels since late 2022, supported by continued firm demand from the biofuel sector and seasonally declining supplies from South America, while sunflower oil quotations rebounded from multi-month lows, underpinned by persistently tight export availabilities from the Black Sea region amid ongoing logistical disruptions. Meanwhile, international palm oil prices fluctuated only slightly in October but remained well above their year-earlier levels, supported by firm global import demand, amid improved price competitiveness relative to other vegetable oils, and expectations for lower production in the 2026/27 season across major Southeast Asian producing countries in. By contrast, global rapeseed oil prices declined amid seasonally increasing supplies and lower-than-expected demand for biodiesel feedstocks, particularly in the European Union.

» The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 125.5 points in October, down 1.6 points (1.2 percent) from September, while remaining slightly above its year-earlier level. Quotations declined for pig, ovine and bovine meat, while poultry meat prices remained broadly stable. Pig meat prices decreased, led by lower quotations in the European Union, where abundant supplies and limited export opportunities continued to weigh on the market amid subdued international demand. Ovine meat prices retreated further from record highs, as larger seasonal supplies in Australia exerted downward pressure, reinforced by currency movements. Nevertheless, overall export availability remained tight, keeping quotations well above year-earlier levels. Bovine meat prices eased slightly, reflecting lower Australian quotations amid intensified competition in global markets, although reduced market offerings, as widespread rainfall encouraged cattle retention, provided some support to prices. Meanwhile, Brazilian quotations remained broadly stable, as tighter export availabilities and stronger demand from the United States of America offset weaker buying interest from China. Poultry meat prices were little changed, with steady international demand balancing ample global supplies. In Brazil, export quotations were largely unchanged despite import restrictions imposed by some trading partners following Newcastle disease outbreaks first detected in the state of Santa Catarina on 18 October, with regionalization arrangements with major trading partners helping to limit trade disruptions.

» The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 117.8 points in October, down 1.3 points (1.1 percent) from September, following the marginal decline recorded in the previous month. The index stood 16.9 percent below its year-earlier level, with skim milk powder (SMP) quotations 45.8 percent higher than in October 2025, butter and cheese prices 31.1 and 29.3 percent lower, respectively, and whole milk powder (WMP) prices broadly unchanged. The October decrease was driven by declines in international butter and cheese quotations, which more than offset further increases in milk powder prices. Butter and cheese markets weakened amid ample supplies and subdued buying interest, particularly in the European Union, where elevated butter stocks and ample cheese supplies continued to weigh on prices despite signs of slowing growth in milk production. Competitive export supplies from the United States of America exerted additional downward pressure on prices. By contrast, SMP prices rose markedly across major exporting regions, supported by sustained import demand and limited supplies available for prompt delivery. In the United States of America, strong demand for nonfat dry milk, coupled with competition for milk solids from higher-value dairy protein products, tightened powder availability despite overall ample milk supplies. WMP quotations edged higher, as firmer prices in Oceania more than offset a marginal price decline in Europe....

....MUCH MORE 

"Nasdaq sell-off batters Asian chip stocks as SK Hynix, Samsung, Softbank, TSMC tumble"

[second] worst Guy Fawkes day ever. 

From CNBC, November 5:

Asian technology stocks tumbled Friday, tracking a sharp sell-off on Wall Street overnight that sent the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite into correction territory. 

Asian technology stocks tumbled Friday, tracking a sharp sell-off on Wall Street overnight that sent the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite into correction territory as renewed concerns over artificial intelligence spending rattled investor sentiment.

South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix plunged over 8%, while Samsung Electronics shed 7%. LG Innotek and LG Display fell 10% and 7.7%, respectively, as selling pressure spread across the country’s technology sector.

The rout came as investors worried that Democrats’ sweeping victory in the U.S. midterm elections could lead to tighter restrictions on data-center development, potentially slowing demand for AI chips and related infrastructure.

In Japan, semiconductor-related stocks also fell, with chip-testing equipment maker Advantest plunging 12.2%, while Tokyo Electron slid 7.3%. Technology investment giant SoftBank Group tumbled 11.6%.

Shares of memory chipmaker Kioxia Holdings fell nearly 10%, while Renesas Electronics declined 7.5%.

In Taiwan, semiconductor stocks also came under heavy selling pressure, with contract chipmaker TSMC sliding 9.6%. Electronics manufacturers Hon Hai Precision Industry, also known as Foxconn, and Foxconn Technology fell 9.4% and 9.1%, respectively, as the regional technology rout deepened....

....MORE

CNBC front page 

"Dow Jones Futures Fall; Nasdaq Dives 5.5%, Nvidia, Sandisk, CoreWeave, SpaceX Plunge, But Sell-Off Spreads Beyond AI"

From Investor's Business Daily, November 5:

• Updated 07:19 PM ET 11/05/2026

Dow Jones futures fell overnight, while S&P 500 futures were little changed and Nasdaq futures rose. Atlassian, Cloudflare, Guardant Health and 10X Genomics were among many big earnings moves overnight. The October jobs report is on tap.

The stock market saw sharp, broad losses in a Day 2 election reaction. The Nasdaq plunged below its 200-day line, the S&P 500 tumbled from key resistance, and the Dow Jones index broke below key levels. A chip and AI meltdown hit Sandisk (SNDK), CoreWeave (CRWV), Nvidia (NVDA) and SpaceX (SPCX), but even stronger areas of the market stumbled.

Palomar Holdings (PLMR), Veeva Software (VEEV), CSX (CSX), Apple (AAPL) and ELF Beauty (ELF) are in or near buy zones. But this is a time for investors to be cautious, with minimal exposure.

The market's fear gauge surged, which could be a positive signal but doesn't have to be.

Veeva stock is on the IBD 50. Palomar was Thursday's IBD Stock Of The Day. The video embedded in the article reviews Thursday's ugly market action and analyzes CSX, Veeva Software and ELF stock.

Dow Jones Futures Today 
Dow Jones futures fell 0.2% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures were little changed, Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.4%. Futures are moving quickly, continuing the regular session's volatility.

Crude oil prices rose slightly.

The Labor Department will release the October jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists expecting nonfarm payrolls to rise by just 62,000 after September's 29,000. That should be enough to keep the jobless rate at 4.2%. Markets still see a December rate hike as likely.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Earnings

FIGS (FIGS), Cloudflare (NET), Airbnb (ABNB), Atlassian (TEAM) and Affirm (AFRM) reported late Thursday, along with Guardant Health (GH), Natera (NTRA), JFrog (FROG), Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO), Five9 (FIVN), 10X Genomics (TXG) and Dropbox (DBX).

Cloudflare and Airbnb jumped, with the latter signaling a move back above a buy point. Dropbox rose modestly within a base.

But Atlassian, Affirm, Guardant Health, Natera, Five9 and 10X Genomics sold off late. Most were already heavily damaged, but FIVN had been holding up. Halozyme and FIGS tumbled after pulling back solidly from near highs in Thursday's session.

Stock Market Action 
The stock market had a broad sell-off that spread well beyond the AI epicenter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sold off 3.5% in Thursday's stock market trading, knifing back below the 50-day after Wednesday's 3% surge. The S&P 500 index plunged 4.35% to a three-month low, retreating from the 50-day line to near the 200-day. The Nasdaq composite dived 5.5%, decisively breaking the 200-day line and almost undercutting its late-July lows. The small-cap Russell 2000 plummeted 4.45%, putting it back below its 50-day and 200-day lines.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) tumbled 2.9% to its 21-day line after hitting a record high soon after the open.

The chip and AI sell-off turned into a full-blown meltdown Thursday as fears mounted that Democrats' sweeping election wins will end up delaying or blocking many more data centers. Sandisk stock dived 22.3%, Bloom Energy (BE) shed 16.4%, CoreWeave lost 9.8% and Nvidia dropped 9.3%. SpaceX tumbled 9.05% to 123.62, below its $135 IPO price for the first time in months. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), with a modest 21-day average true range of 3.3%, plunged 10.8% on Thursday.

Meanwhile, software names sold off. But so did retail, housing, financial and travel stocks. Even superdefensive insurance and staples reversed lower....

....MUCH MORE

Other than that Mrs. Lincoln.... 

Inflection Point: Package Delivery By Drone Is Now Totally Normal

From the Wall Street Journal, November 5:

Zipline Reaches $21.5 Billion Valuation as Drone Delivery Gains Traction
Startup expands partnership with Walmart to launch 300 additional sites

Zipline notched $1.5 billion in fresh funding, more than doubling the drone startup’s valuation from earlier this year to $21.5 billion.

Chief Executive Keller Cliffton, who co-founded Zipline in 2014, said the company’s skyrocketing valuation is a sign that autonomous delivery has finally gained wider acceptance among both investors and commercial partners.

Cliffton likens it to Waymo’s rapid rise in San Francisco. Drones similarly once felt like science fiction, and are now increasingly seen as the backbone of how cities will function, he said.

“It’s an inflection point,” Cliffton said in an interview. “It sort of happened overnight, and suddenly it’s totally normal.”

Zipline got its start delivering blood and medical supplies in Africa, a part of the business that the company says helps save more than 14,000 lives a year, and which is now growing faster than ever, according to Cliffton.

A newer piece of Zipline’s business, its commercial operations in the U.S., has also taken off. Up until just a few months ago, the company was targeting an eventual increase to one million drone deliveries a day, but now it’s seeing interest from three or four customers who each want to buy that kind of volume, Cliffton said.

“I think people have suddenly realized that teleportation-level logistics, where you can get whatever you need in 10 to 15 minutes, is a really big deal,” Cliffton said.

Among the recent customers are Uber Technologies, which signed a deal with Zipline in August to facilitate drone deliveries for takeout, grocery and retail orders on its Uber Eats platform.

And on Thursday, Walmart said it is expanding its existing partnership with Zipline, with the companies working together to launch 300 additional sites as part of a national multi-year agreement.

Zipline, which had a $7.85 billion valuation earlier this year, said it will use its new capital to keep up with the surging demand. It plans to expand its U.S. manufacturing facilities and ramp up hiring as it looks to build a drone-delivery network that spans nationwide. The company currently operates in three U.S. states—Texas, Arkansas and Ohio—with plans to soon launch in Arizona.

As it scales up, the South San Francisco, Calif., company will also continue to focus on upgrading its technology, Cliffton said.

Zipline recently rolled out new capabilities designed for quieter flying. It is also been working to allow its drones to fly higher, and carry heavier orders over longer distances.

“Zipline is an engineering company at its heart,” Cliffton said. “We focus on improving every single part of the service.”

Other players have also made headway in commercial drone delivery. Alphabet’s Wing unit similarly works with a number of restaurant, retail and healthcare partners, and delivery giant DoorDash is developing its own drones, along with related ground infrastructure and digital systems. Amazon also has its own in-house drone division offering delivery in select markets in the U.S.

....MUCH MORE 

Huh, "...teleportation-level logistics" 

Wind Finally Turned Profitable For GE Vernova And Now It's Being Branded As A Data Center Play (GEV)

Actually it is, sort of. As we saw yesterday, around twenty percent of their business is data centers. 

From the earnings call transcript, October 28:

Electrification also posted strong growth, while wind turned profitable in the quarter despite a softer U.S. market

***

Wind guidance was revised to reflect a smaller decline in organic revenue, now expected to be down mid-single digits rather than low double digits. 

*** 

Analysts asked about the wind business as well, and management said it is pleased with the return to profitability but still sees strategic questions ahead for 2027 and beyond. 

***

Wind turned profitable on strong services improvement, and we continue improving execution in offshore as our backlog to complete continues to come down. Across all three businesses and corporate, we have investments in automation and AI with strong use cases that will expand margins over the medium term, but in 3Q in isolation remain a net expense. Point being, we are early in our margin expansion acceleration. 

....MUCH MORE 

It's green, green like Gumby dammit. Jeff Immelt, Al Gore, Ocasio-Cortez, Green New Deal, etc.

And as noted exiting another of our three GE Vernova posts that day: 

GEV has been consciously throttling turbine manufacturing capacity and thus uptake of new orders vs working-down the approaching-$200 billion backlog.

The reason for this is that the industry has been burned, burned big, twice in the last quarter-century by adding capacity that ended up going idle a few years after completion.

GE Vernova could have spent $40 or $50 billion on new plant property and equipment two years ago, with Hitachi and Siemens Energy spending another $10 billion apiece but long memories pointed toward increasing profit margins rather than increasing volume.

Another constraint is a national labor force ill-equipped to learn, much less perform, cutting edge manufacturing. It's the same reason Ford is offering skilled mechanics $150K to start and has thousands of openings unfilled, the workers with the brains and the talents are already employed.

So what's next for GE Vernova? 

We'll probably be hearing a lot more about their transformer and fuel cell and nuclear businesses as the turbine business continues to kick off increasing amounts of cash.

And who knows, maybe wind will get subsidized again, what with the new congress and all. 

Earlier today:

• Earnings: GE Vernova Beats Top And Bottom, Raises; Stock Higher Premarket (GEV)
• GE Vernova Earnings Call Transcript, October 28, 2026 (GEV)

But the market doesn't care. As has been said on Wall Street forever "when they raid the whorehouse they take the good girls with the bad. The stock is changing hands at $769.06 down another $63.77 (−7.66%). It has been a brutal week/month/half year:

TradingView 

Today's low was $750.00 on the screws which may or may not have some quasi-mystical meaning.

They're Celebrating Kristallnacht in Philadelphia This Weekend

Party like it's 1938. 

From City&State Pennsylvania, November 3:

‘These Zionist establishments must go!’ Organizers of upcoming Philly ‘Boycott Ride’ target Jewish-owned eateries
A coalition of pro-Palestinian activists plans to intimidate Jewish-owned businesses on the eve of the 88th anniversary of Kristallnacht, the Nazi night of terror that destroyed thousands of Jewish homes and businesses.

As a former two-term Philadelphia City Councilmember and one of the city’s most prominent real estate developers, Allan Domb has been a fixture in Philadelphia’s civic and commercial life for decades.

So he was “surprised,” he told City & State on Tuesday, to discover that one of his businesses – Schlesinger’s, a Center City Jewish deli – had been singled out for harassment by an anti-Israeli and antisemitic movement whose purported aim, according to a now-deleted Instagram post, is to “show these zio business owners that we see them for the disgusting humans they are.”

Schlesinger’s is one of a half-dozen restaurants in Philadelphia’s Center City targeted by this Sunday’s pro-Palestinian bike ride apparently called “Boycott Ride” in Rittenhouse Square, which aims to oust Jewish- and Israeli-owned businesses from the city. The others targeted by the rally are Huda Burger; Mac Mart; and Goldie’s, K’far Café and Dizengoff, all of which feature the Israeli cuisine of their acclaimed chef-restaurateur, Michael Solomonov.

Aside from Solomonov, all the other businesses are owned by American Jews, a distinction not evident in the rally flyer, which – in language reminiscent of Nazi propaganda against German Jewish businesses like “Kauf nicht bei Juden!” (“Don’t buy from Jews!”), declares: “No business for Zionists! These Zionist establishments must go! Not in our city!”

Jewish media initially reported that flyers had been circulated by the group Philly Writers Against the War on Gaza, but it appears that the main organizer is Philly Bike On Your Left, an activist group, with Philly Solidarity Calendar and Boycott CookNSolo listed on the Instagram announcement as “collaborators.” The latter group is devoted to organizing against CookNSolo, the Philadelphia restaurant group behind Solomonov’s establishments. None of the organizations listed as being “collaborators” responded to requests for comment.

The date of the action, Nov. 8, is a suggestive choice: It is the eve of the 88th anniversary of Kristallnacht, a sweeping orgy of state-sponsored anti-Jewish violence across Nazi Germany, Austria and the Sudetenland (part of modern-day Czechia) on Nov. 9-10, 1938, when more than 7,000 Jewish businesses were damaged or destroyed, along with thousands more homes and synagogues, and 30,000 Jewish men were deported to concentration camps....

....MUCH MORE  

I believe the term they are looking for is Judenfrei.

Recession Incoming

We saw how this played out in 2008.

From Fortune, October 16 i.e. pre-midterms:

‘He can’t run again’: MAGA merch sellers are closing shop and cutting prices. One sold $63 million but now she’s closed three stores 

Richard Kligman didn’t set out to sell President Donald Trump and “Make America Great Again” merch. But Kligman spotted a business opportunity in 2016, when customers began asking for MAGA hats and flags at the Myrtle Beach, South Carolina kite shop he ran with his brother. The duo opened their Trump Super Store in the empty storefront next door in 2018 to keep up with the demand. 

“You’d have thought I was selling crack,” Kligman jokingly told Fortune. But now he wants out. 

“You have to read the writing on the wall that as we go into ‘27, it’s definitely going to fall off, and I’d like to be out of it as much as I could be by the end of ‘27,” he said. 

Sales were “going gangbusters,” Kligman said, between the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections, and the brothers were putting in seven days a week just to keep up with demand from both locals and visitors from around the country. 

But now, Kligman said sales of Trump-branded merch have since fallen 39% from their 2024 levels. 

“A lot of the Trump merchandise stores across the country are closing because they see that things are going to change a bit, and the demand is not what it once was,” Kligman said. “It’s absolutely gone down, but it had to because he can’t run again.”....

....MUCH MORE (the effects go back through the supply chain) 

And from America's Finest News Source, September 11, 2008 (remember September 2008? No good): 

The sudden drop in demand for "Buck Fush" T-shirts and "Hail to the Chimp" posters could leave millions unemployed. 

 

HT: Harvard's Professor Greg Mankiw

Capital Markets: "BOE Initiates Tightening Cycle with Quarter-Point Hike"

From Marc to Market:

In the initial reaction to the US election results, the dollar and US equities were sold.  The market talk was about the implications for the AI build-out.  The AI meme questioned and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange’s Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell by 3.1%, though the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.4%.  However, in North America yesterday, the focus shifted a bit. Another implication of the shifting US political landscape was the war in Iran. December WTI dropped by 8.3% yesterday, the largest single day decline since the war began. This helped drive rates lower. 

The dollar fell again in Asia Pacific trading today but is mixed now.  As the North American session gets underway, the dollar is a little firmer against most European currencies, except the Norwegian krone and is slightly softer against the dollar-bloc currencies and Japanese yen.  As widely expected, the Bank of England began its tightening cycle with a quarter-point hike (to 4%), while Norway’s Norges Bank stood pat. Its deposit rate is 4.5%....

....MUCH MORE  

BigLaw (Freshfields) On What To Expect From A Democratic Congress

Although London-based, Freshfields seems to be everywhere. 2700 attorneys.

This piece was published before the election but shows some interesting insight into what's what.

October 13
Tea on the Hill: Navigating the Coming Congressional Currents 

As the midterms approach, congressional Democrats are already deciding where they will look first. If they win the House in November, and they are planning as though they will, the next Congress will open with an oversight agenda that reaches beyond the administration to the companies whose conduct illustrates its policies. Those companies will come from across the economy. 

This is the first in a series on what companies should expect from congressional investigations in 2027. Later installments will provide a sector-by-sector breakdown of the key issues likely to draw scrutiny, the points of exposure, and the strategic considerations unique to each industry. We begin with the investigative playbook itself: the strategy, the mechanics, and the decisions companies need to be making right now. 

A New Investigative Playbook

Democrats have been explicit about their strategy. Rather than solely focusing on the Trump Administration, they intend to use private companies as a lens on administration policies and a platform for their message on affordability, competition, and consumer protection. A number of industries can expect to be under the congressional microscope in the coming year, and we will work through each of them here.   

The timeline is aggressive. Democrats are targeting public hearings as early as spring 2027, and they are prepared to move quickly to subpoenas and contempt votes against companies they view as slow to cooperate. That threat is more credible than in past cycles. The Senate HELP Committee’s bipartisan vote to hold Steward Health Care’s CEO in civil and criminal contempt showed that contempt against a private-sector executive can draw support from both parties. Any criminal referral will still need the Trump Justice Department to act on it. That is less of a safeguard than it appears, because much of Congress’s leverage lies in the process itself, including the vote, the public record, and the reputational cost. Further, House Democrats are already coordinating with state attorneys general on parallel investigations, in a more explicit and broader alignment than in any prior cycle. Companies should assume that what they produce to Congress may reach state enforcers and prepare productions with that audience in mind....

....MORE

"OpenAI pledges to pay for data center power after election highlights AI concerns"

Well yeah. 
Now start paying surrounding communities.

From CNBC, November 5:

• OpenAI published a policy blueprint and a series of commitments that it pledged to apply to company-owned and -operated data centers in the future.
• The company said it will solicit community input around the projects, publish construction plans and protect ratepayers.
• Voters issued a stinging rebuke of data centers in the midterms after opposition to the facilities mounted over the summer. 

OpenAI reaffirmed its promise to pay the full cost of powering data centers as part of a series of commitments the company published Thursday, two days after voters at the polls roundly rejected the rapid expansion of AI.

The artificial intelligence company said in its commitments that for data centers it owns and operates, it will solicit community input, publish construction plans and stay away from use of non-disclosure agreements with public officials. Additionally, in a policy blueprint, OpenAI encouraged policymakers to enact similar commitments as laws.

“What we’re doing with this blueprint is really laying out the best lessons that we have learned and committing to applying them as they go forward,” OpenAI Chief Global Affairs Officer Chris Lehane told reporters during a Wednesday briefing. “This will help ensure that there is a very high floor in terms of how people move forward.”

On Tuesday, Americans issued a stinging rebuke of data centers at the polls. Out of 41 local ballot measures across 10 states, voters backed restrictions or rejected pro-development measures for all but one, according to an analysis by Ballotpedia and additional results gathered by CNBC on Wednesday.

Opposition to AI data centers mounted swiftly over the summer across both sides of the political aisle. Consumers grappling with inflation, rising grocery prices and stubbornly high prices at the pump grew worried that the facilities could exacerbate environmental harms, raise utility bills and contribute to job loss. For many, they became a physical manifestation of the widespread antipathy and anxiety around AI.

AI companies like OpenAI depend on AI data centers to serve customers and develop new models, and they’re seeking to build out as rapidly as possible to meet demand. In February, OpenAI told investors that it’s targeting $600 billion in total compute spend by 2030, and the company has since announced massive data center projects in Georgia and Ohio....

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"‘We are a threat to Putin’: the small Norwegian news outlet with half its staff on Russia’s wanted list"

From The Guardian, November 4:

Exiled journalists at the Barents Observer face growing intimidation as Moscow seeks to control media beyond its borders 

The official newspaper of the Russian government is an unlikely source of recognition for a European news outlet critical of Vladimir Putin and providing sanctuary to exiled Russian journalists. But in May, two days after Russia tested its new intercontinental ballistic missile system nicknamed “Satan II” by Nato, an article in Rossiyskaya Gazeta prompted celebrations in a remote newsroom in the Arctic.

The story about how “leading global media” reacted to the Sarmat missile test referred to just a handful of outlets including the BBC, Reuters, the Associated Press and France 24. But among them was the Barents Observer, a small, journalist-owned online newspaper publishing in English and Russian about northern Russia and the Euro-Arctic region from a modest office in the north-eastern Norwegian town of Kirkenes.

It was especially surprising given that the publication had been declared an “undesirable organisation” by the office of Russia’s prosecutor general, and half of its staff journalists are on Russia’s wanted list.

Its editor, Thomas Nilsen, said: “We were listed among what the Russian government newspaper itself called ‘leading global media’. That was a very good day at the Barents Observer, because it means we had reached into the inner circle of the Kremlin.”

Last week the Norwegian prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, and the Finnish president, Alexander Stubb, held a call with Putin, marking a rare moment of contact between the Russian president and European leaders. Afterwards, Støre said there were “big differences in views” with Putin.

This certainly applies when it comes to press freedom. A few days later, the Nobel prize-winning independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta was forced to close, citing intolerable pressure from authorities.

A short drive from the Norway-Russia border and the only remaining legal land border crossing from Russia into the European Schengen free travel area, Kirkenes is a place where rising tensions with Moscow are felt acutely. But since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine the town has also become a refuge for Russians who have found themselves targeted by Putin’s regime – some of whom are journalists who have been hired by the Barents Observer....

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We've been linking to the Barents Observer for at least a decade and have found them to be accurate in their reporting. Among many others, this story-in-many-parts was retold in September 2019's "Russia's Spy Whales Now Under Tighter Security":

....Of all the stories that came out after the fishermen saw the whale-wearing-a-harness  and realized it seemed pretty at-ease around people was this from one of the whale watchers who went out to look at the Beluga. First the background from the above mentioned May Barents Observer story:

....The beluga whale wearing a harness with mounts for a GoPro camera that first was spotted by local fishermen on Norway’s Barents Sea coast in late April is still swimming around in the harbor of Hammerfest.

Making big headlines in Norway and around the globe, the locals name him ‘Whaledimir’ (Hvaldimir in Norwegian) after national broadcaster NRK made a poll asking their audience to name the animal. Today the beluga is stripped free from the harness, but is refusing to leave his new life of freedom in Norway. Experts say the whale will likely not survive without being fed by humans....

To which we added:

Hvaldimir? What kind of name is Hvaldimir?
Whaley McWhaleface should have been a lock.

There is some question whether this Beluga returning a woman's dropped phone is Hvaldimar or just some rando phone retrieving cetacean:



Here's the story and video of the retrieval.

Incredible Footage Shows Whale Retrieve Phone Woman Dropped In The Ocean

Vice-President Vance: "End the War, Change our relationship to Israel"

From the Veep's Xitter feed, November 4:

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026

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Continues

....Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:

1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel

Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results.... 

This follows on yesterday's:

"GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks erase losses, oil tumbles after Trump says US will end $4 billion funding to Israel"

"GE Vernova Sinks 10%, Vistra Down 12% as Democrats Win Congress: 'Incrementally More Negative Sentiment'” (GEV)

From TIKR, November 4: 

Key Takeaways

• GE Vernova fell 10% today, with Vistra and Constellation Energy, after Democrats won both chambers of Congress.
• Only about 20% of GE Vernova’s contracted gas turbine capacity serves data centers.
• Eaton and Caterpillar just reported rising data center demand, and new curbs would face a presidential veto.
• Next up: whether GE Vernova’s gas contracts reach the 130 gigawatts management expects by year-end.

GE Vernova (GEV) fell 10% this morning after Democrats won the Senate and the House in Tuesday’s midterms, and investors sold AI power stocks.

Vistra (VST) fell 12% and Constellation Energy (CEG) fell 7%. Yet Eaton (ETN) and Caterpillar (CAT) are still seeing data center growth.

Evercore ISI analysts led by Amit Daryanani wrote in a note: “Assuming a more restrictive data center development environment, this could create incrementally more negative sentiment for AI infrastructure exposed names.”

Sentiment is the key word here.

Most of these turbines aren’t for data centers 
GE Vernova had 122 gigawatts of gas equipment under contract at the end of September. As of midyear, only about 20% of its contracted gigawatts served data centers....

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Blood Bank Coolers Hacked In France

There is no reason for this stuff to be connected to the internet.

From CNBC, November 4:

Blood banks targeted in latest European fridge cyberattacks 

• Blood banks have become the latest target of cyberattacks on fridges across Europe, the French Blood Establishment confirmed Wednesday.
• Cold storage units with blood products were remotely hacked, with temperatures raised excessively.
• EFS said no blood products were lost and no health impact was identified after alarms detected the anomalies quickly.

French blood banks were on Monday affected by the recent wave of cybersecurity attacks on European refrigeration systems, the French Blood Establishment confirmed on Wednesday.

The organization said that while it wasn’t the direct target of the attack, cold storage units operated by external providers containing the EFS’ blood products were compromised across three of its sites, with hackers cranking up temperatures.

“Specifically, temperature and defrost thresholds were set to excessively high levels,” the EFS said in a statement translated from French to English by CNBC.

“These cold storage units—located at EFS preparation and distribution sites—are used to store blood products prior to their delivery to healthcare facilities, as well as samples intended for EFS biobanks.”

They also stored frozen plasma used for transfusions the manufacturing of medicinal products.

The EFS said that its surveillance systems were triggered rapidly, and depending on the situation, affected equipment was either brought under control with no impact on the products or samples, or they were taken offline. No samples or blood products were lost during the attack, with samples quickly transferred to other facilities, the EFS added....

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As noted after the second attack on grocery store coolers:

"Frozen part II: Hackers remotely defrost produce in Euro supermarkets ... again"
The cooler/chiller companies better get this under control....

The life-saving/life-changing miracle of refrigeration is taken for granted. Big mistake

If interested see also: 

July 2024 - "...Refrigeration and the Many Virtues of the Cold Chain"
Cold, very important. For me and for the world....

And why were we so interested? Money.
As mentioned some years ago:

June 3, 2019
Logistics: Big Money For Warehouses, Looking at Cold Storage.

...This next bit brings back some memories. My second stock to double was a cold storage company, actually a dairy with a cold storage operation that was valued at about one-quarter of comparables. I started chipping away at the float and before I got anywhere near enough stock, the management, who knew full well the value of the operation, did an LBO and took it private at 2x market and ended up generating cash-on-cash returns (for themselves) of around 40% per annum for a decade or so.
Bastards.

That led us into being on the right side of the the whole pandemic need for storage and particularly cold storage. Another example of how just being in the right place at the right time can make this whole investing thing so much easier:

June 6, 2019
"It's About To Become A Hot Market For Cold Storage Facilities"—CBRE

March 30, 2020
"Coronavirus: Panic buying sparks surge in flexible storage demand"

April 27, 2020
The UK Food Situation Is Going to Get Interesting
From Reuters:
World's biggest cold storage supplier could reach full UK capacity in three weeks.....

If interested see also January 2019's "Logistics of Cold"
That essay mentions an apple farmer, Barbara Pratt. She's also Maersk's director of refrigerated technical services.
Maersk thinks pretty highly of her, giving her a page on the website: THE QUEEN OF COOL.
Unfortunately, when the cybercrooks attacked Maersk it was lost—you now get a "subdomain takeover" notice so, if interested here she is saved at the Internet Archive page. 

In October 2021 the story was:
Buying Warehouses In Europe and China
It was rather lonely in 2019 when we were pitching warehouses and cold storage facilities but by December 2020 we were posting stuff like:

Real Estate: "Logistics market is hot, but is a bubble forming?"
It's always nice to see a sector you've been babbling about for a couple years finally referred to as a bubble....

Good times.

"A Democrat won the Texas governor's race after promising to halt new data center construction"

Back to Yahoo Finance, November 3: 

A strong showing by Democrats in Texas swept Gina Hinojosa into office as the state's first Democratic governor since 1990 in a contest closely watched by Big Tech companies. 

The state is considered a bellwether for government restrictions on AI data centers.

Incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott conceded the race late Tuesday, calling Hinojosa and then telling his supporters, "mathematically we are not going to be able to win this election." The Associated Press declared Hinojosa the winner at 11:17 p.m. ET.

Hinojosa, Texas' first Latina governor, has pledged to impose a moratorium on data center construction in Texas, which accounts for more than 25% of planned US capacity by 2030. 

"We view the Texas gubernatorial race as particularly important for the next leg of the AI trade," wrote Raymond James's Ed Mills in a pre-election note saying that a strong Democratic showing there "could signal a broader electoral wave while increasing concerns about data center moratoriums and more restrictive AI regulation in the nation's largest planned data center development." 

Bank of America called the race "one of the highest impact elections for the entire utility sector."

Hinojosa made opposition to data center construction a central part of her campaign and charged in one ad that incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott "works for" Elon Musk alongside images of the two men.

She staked out plans for a moratorium on new data center construction as well as stricter regulations on water and power usage and an end to tax breaks.

Abbott was seeking his fourth term as governor and said last year he wanted Texas to be the "epicenter of AI development."

More recently, he announced a moratorium of his own and said he would support more stringent requirements on power and water usage. Hinojosa quickly charged Abbott with "lying" and said his new proposals amounted to an "election year pause."

The race reflected a national mood that has turned sharply against data centers in recent months.

A UMass Amherst Poll in September found nearly two-thirds of Americans oppose local AI data center construction, with just 11% of voters welcoming their construction. These results showed that 76% of Democrats and 52% of Republicans oppose construction in their communities.

Across the country, voters also weighed in on at least 50 local ballot measures related to data centers in contests that spanned 13 states from Arkansas to Wisconsin....

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Capital Markets: "Election-Inspired Dollar Setback may be Buying Opportunity Ahead of Friday's Employment Report "

From Marc to Market: 

The US election results initially spurred a sell-off in tech shares as Democrats may be more interested in regulating AI than the current administration, and local initiatives on ballots seemed overwhelmingly to support limits on the data center build out. That said, the amount of territory or percentage of data center plans seem relatively modest. While equities have recovered, the dollar remains broadly lower. The intraday momentum indicators are stretched, and the greenback has begun consolidating after session lows were recorded in the European morning.

The dollar’s drivers, including the outlook for Fed policy and the economy, are likely to be more supportive over the next 48 hours or so. The US sees the ADP private sector jobs estimate today, alongside the final services and composite PMI, ISM services, and the September trade balance. Several Fed officials speak tomorrow and Friday, and those that have spoken recently seem to support a rate hike next month. And then on Friday, is the October jobs growth is seen a little more than 60k, which would be better than the three-month average....

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Also at Marc to Market: 

Surplus: The History of Too Much and the End of Economic Primacy 

Surplus: The History of Too Much and the End of Economic Primacy

The Puzzle

The United States carries more than $40.5 trillion of debt. Neither party has the appetite to address it. Yet adjusted for inflation, real interest rates remain subdued. While nominal yields are near multi-decade highs, real yields are modest. The US 10-year yield is a little below 4.95% now, and US CPI was 3.7% in September.

Scarcity cannot explain this. There is too much capital chasing too few outlets, and that is the argument of Surplus. The S&P 500 could fund the entire $5.2 trillion AI build-out with about 2.5 years of profits. Buybacks happen not because senior executives are generous; US corporations are now net lenders. Return the hot potato, the surplus capital to investors. Let them figure out what to do with it.

Politics and Economics Rejoined

Harold Lasswell, a founder of modern political science, defined politics as "who gets what, when and how." To the modern ear that sounds like economics....

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