Bad Timing: "Yara Pilbara Shutdown Halts Australia’s Largest Fertiliser Input Plant for Two Months"

From Canada's The Deep Dive, March 21:

A technical glitch has forced the closure of Yara Pilbara, Australia’s largest producer of ammonia, a critical input for urea fertilizer and mining explosives, for at least two months. The shutdown, which began this week, disrupts a key supply chain at a time when global ammonia trade is already strained by geopolitical conflicts.

The outage at the Pilbara facility, located in Western Australia, stems from a power outage that damaged critical systems, although specifics were not provided. Yara, a global leader in fertilizer production, has confirmed that repairs and safety checks will keep the plant offline until at least late May 2026. This closure impacts not only agricultural sectors reliant on urea for crop production but also mining operations in Australia that depend on ammonia for explosives.

The plant last year produced 850,000 tonnes of ammonia, while the second largest in the country, found near Perth, produced only 255,000 tonnes last year.

Compounding the issue roughly 25% of the world’s ammonia trade, and 43% of urea, is currently blocked due to the ongoing Iran war which has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. With global supplies already tight, the loss of Yara Pilbara’s output could drive up costs for farmers and miners alike....

....MORE 

Also at The Deep Dive March 21:

Canadians Slide To New Low In Happiness Index

"Trump Signals Endgame in Iran, Says Hormuz Security Will Fall on ‘Nations Who Use It’"

From gCaptain, March 20: 

President Donald Trump on Friday signaled that U.S. military objectives against Iran are nearing completion, outlining a sweeping set of goals that include the destruction of Tehran’s military capabilities while indicating the United States may step back from directly policing the Strait of Hormuz.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said U.S. operations have focused on “completely degrading Iranian missile capability,” destroying the country’s defense industrial base, and eliminating its navy and air force—while ensuring Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons.

But the most consequential signal for the shipping industry came in his comments on Hormuz.

“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!” Trump wrote, adding that the U.S. would assist if asked but suggested regional powers should take primary responsibility.....

*****

... Shipping Industry Faces Uncertainty as U.S. Role Comes Into Question 

Trump’s remarks land at a critical moment for global shipping, with commercial traffic through the Strait effectively collapsing amid ongoing attacks and security concerns. The suggestion that the U.S. may not directly secure the waterway raises fresh questions about how—and whether—traffic can safely resume.

Trump’s proposal seems to effectively shift responsibility to Gulf states and major energy consumers....

....MUCH MORE  

Semiconductors: The Helium Shortage Is No Laughing Matter

Well there goes our one and only helium joke: "That's funnier than three helium atoms; HeHeHe."* 

Three headlines at TipRanks:

March 18 - Helium Supply Risks Put Semiconductor Supply Chains Under Scrutiny 

March 18 - Helium Supply Risks Put Spotlight on Malaysian Semiconductor Operations 

March 19 - TSMC Stock (TSM) Wilts as Iranian Attacks Batter Helium Supply and Threaten Chip Production

*April 2013
Chemistry: Periodically, We Tell Element Jokes
Funnier than three helium atoms: HeHeHe. 

As reprised in 2018's "Venting about the Helium Market" along with a bunch of other back-links. Also 2021's ""The Race to Find ‘Green’ Helium" (figure it out, make yourself a billionaire)"

Of course the real money will be made in lunar helium-3. 

"Nvidia Finally Admits Why It Shelled Out $20 Billion For Groq" (and Senator Warren swings by) NVDA

From The Next Platform, March 17:

Back in late December, Nvidia did a $20 billion “acquihire” of most of the development team at Groq and licensed the technology underlying its LPU dataflow engines for doing AI inference. We expected for Nvidia to move fast to deploy the tensor streaming processors created by Jonathan Ross, the ex-Googler who created a fully-scheduled, programmable tensor processing unit after he left the search engine giant. When the GenAI boom took off, these were renamed Language Processing Units, but the architecture did not change. Now, Nvidia is working with Samsung to bring the third generation LP30 chips to market, which Nvidia co-founder and chief executive officer Jensen Huang said in his opening keynote presentation at the GTC 2026 conference would happen in the second half of this year, and very likely in the third quarter.

Nvidia is not wasting any time, and that is because it does not have time to waste. Groq was going to start getting traction in low latency inference, just as Cerebras Systems has and that SambaNova Systems can do given their focus on ultra-high bandwidth SRAM memory against more modest compute to have zippy inference across a large number of compute engines. Where speed matters, these system makers and the dozens of upstarts who are trying to tackle inference at scale are so many piranhas swarming towards a fat cow standing in the Amazon (the river, not the bookseller and cloud utility). So Nvidia had to moooooooove. . . . 

Hence, the dramatic $20 billion acquihire of Groq, which could not be an outright acquisition because that might take a year or two and might not pass muster with the world’s antitrust regulators. And hence its immediate absorption into the Vera-Rubin platform. Which arguably should be called the Vera-Rubin-Groq platform, given that Huang said during his keynote that low latency, premium priced token generation should represent somewhere on the order of 25 percent of the compute in an AI cluster.

Remember that Rubin CPX large context compute engine that Nvidia preview back in September 2025? The one based on a variant of the Rubin architecture and equipped with cheaper and more available GDDR7 graphics memory?

“We discovered a great idea,” Ian Buck, vice president of AI and HPC at Nvidia, said on a call ahead of GTC 2026 going over the systems announcements. “Integrating the LPU and LPX into our Rubin platform to optimize the decode. That's where we're focused right now, and we're excited to be bringing that to market.”

In other words, scratch Rubin CPX.

Huang stacked up what we presume is the “Rubin” R200 GPU accelerator beside what we presume was called the “Alan-3” Groq LP30 inference accelerator. One is a general purpose, dynamically scheduled compute engine that is pretty good at batching up lots of inferences and pipelining them through HBM stacked memory with reasonable latency and supporting many concurrent users. (That would be the GPU.) And the other is a rack or more of fairly modest, inference-specific, statically scheduled, deterministic compute engines that work in concert to support a small number of users – that number is likely one most of the time – and distribute model weights (not data) across their aggregate SRAM in such a way that the response time for token generation scales down as you add more machines. The GPU is a thresher, the LPU is a speed demon. They can work together with the Dynamo inference stack to provide a more balanced pareto curve for inference performance across a range of throughout and latency.

Here are the feeds and speeds of the R200 and the LP30 chips:....

....MUCH MORE 

 And from the office of Senator Elizabeth Warren, March 19:

Jensen Huang
President and Chief Executive Officer
NVIDIA Corporation
2788 San Tomas Expressway
Santa Clara, CA 95051 

Dear Mr. Huang: 

We write to request additional information regarding the terms of NVIDIA’s recent deal with Groq, an artificial intelligence (AI) chip startup and NVIDIA competitor, to assess the agreement’s implications for competition in the AI chip sector. On December 24, 2025, NVIDIA and Groq announced an agreement under which NVIDIA will pay Groq $20 billion to acquire a non-exclusive license for Groq’s inference chip design technology and hire many of Groq’s key employees, including its CEO and president.1 The deal will give NVIDIA “all of Groq’s assets,”2 and appears to be structured to evade scrutiny by antitrust regulators.3 We are concerned that this takeover could stifle competition, further entrenching NVIDIA’s dominance in the AI chip industry and ceding our technological leadership to China.

NVIDIA currently dominates the market for the powerful graphics processing units (GPUs) used for developing and deploying advanced AI models.4 NVIDIA controls roughly 90% of the market for high-end data center GPUs, with buyers forced to wait for supplies because enterprise demand far exceeds supply.5 As of the end of Q3 2025, NVIDIA also controlled 92% of the market for personal computer (PC) GPUs used for computationally-intensive tasks such as video games and hosting smaller AI models, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) controlling 7% and Intel possessing just 1% market share.6  

And competition in the narketplace has shrunk over time. AMD controlled 12% of the PC GPU market at the end of Q1 2024, 7 8% at the end of Q1 2025, 8 and just 7% as of the most recent quarter. 9 Because GPUs are essential for advanced AI development, NVIDIA effectively controls which companies can compete in AI, and the entire AI industry is held hostage to NVIDIA’s product decisions and priorities. This market dominance, combined with the recent explosion of interest and investment in AI, has seen NVIDIA reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion, making it the most valuable company in history.10....

....MUCH MORE (6 page PDF) 

Meanwhile, In Canada: Yes Virginia, Housing Prices Can Go Down

From the Toronto Star, March 17:

Condo crash ground zero: Prices in this Toronto suburb have tanked a staggering 57% 
Pickering condo prices have crashed by 57 per cent since February 2022. Vaughan, Markham and Milton have also seen worse losses than the city of Toronto.

Dina Thakkar envisioned one day gazing out at Lake Ontario from the window of her two-bedroom, 700-square-foot Pickering condo.

So, she paid extra for the view.

Unfortunately, she never got to enjoy it.

“It’s almost a nightmare,” she said. She and her husband have been trying to sell since last fall, calling their realtor constantly for updates.

“We are very much stressed.”

The entire GTA real estate sector has struggled over the last four years, after prices reached dizzying heights during the pandemic peak in February 2022.

While Toronto’s cratering condo market gets a lot of the attention, condos in the 905 have seen some of the biggest losses, with benchmark prices dropping over 30 per cent in several communities including Markham (40 per cent), Milton (36 per cent), and Vaughan (37 per cent), over the last four years, according to numbers from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). That’s compared to 28 per cent for condos within the city of Toronto.

If anywhere is ground zero, it might be Pickering, the Durham city of just under 100,000 people that’s home to waterfront trails and a nuclear power plant. The benchmark price of a condo there has dropped a staggering 57 per cent from February 2022 to February 2026. 

The huge decline does make these homes more affordable for buyers. The catch is many of them are very small. They were aimed at investors, who have deserted the space, and demand has plummeted. That means developers are struggling to sell inventory in completed buildings, and have less incentive to break ground on new projects, leaving governments to fall behind on ambitious housing targets.

Owners like Thakkar, who purchased pre-construction units that didn’t exist yet, are caught up in the crash. 

Unlike some pre-construction buyers who planned to sell their contract for a profit before their condo was ever completed, Thakkar said she and her husband intended to live in their unit in the Universal City development, a new master-planned community of five condo towers near Highway 401 and the Pickering Go Station.

“The market was like — boom,” recalled the 46-year-old, who immigrated from Gujarat, on the west coast of India, in 2013.

The couple agreed to buy the condo for $587,000 in 2019. It was supposed to be completed a few years later. They put 20 per cent down to seal the deal.

The realtor who sold it told them by the time the unit was built it would be worth close to $1 million, Thakkar said. 

Indeed, in February 2022 the benchmark price for a condo in Pickering was over $1.1 million, per TRREB, with 2,359 new condos sold in the GTA that January, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD)....

....MUCH MORE 

If interested see also:

February 17 - "Canadian Housing Market Faces Years-Long Price Decline, BMO Economist Warns" 
Again we ask: Where did all the drug money go?*

*Previously:

April 2024 - "Amid Canada’s Huge Immigration Surge, Population Growth Hits 3.2%, Fuels 10% Rent Inflation, even as Home Prices Drop"  

August 2025 - Canadian Condo Crash

I wonder where all the drug money went? Canada used to be swimming in the stuff, from the B.C. bud crowd in Vancouver to the Fentanyl cowboys across the plains to Toronto to the old skool Mafias in Ottawa and Montreal. See for example "The Montreal Mafia Murders: Blood, Gore, Cannolis, and Hockey Bags" or at Sky News: "Mafia in Canada: How the ’Ndrangheta built a Toronto empire". 

September 2025 -  Meanwhile In Canada: "No One Wants to Buy a Condo"

"Iran ready to help passage of Japan ships in Strait of Hormuz: Araghchi"

When the headlines eventually turn positive the reaction in equity markets will be a sight to behold, maybe ten, maybe fifteen percent upside in a matter of days. And maybe 20% to 25% in weeks. 

It almost seems the whole world is waiting for a reason to buy stuff that has been knocked down in price. 

That said, this news isn't big enough to be the trigger but is something to be aware of underneath the doom and gloom. 

From Tokyo's Kyodo News Agency, March 21:

TEHRAN - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said Tehran is ready to facilitate the passage of Japanese vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy shipments, and that negotiations with Japan on the issue are ongoing.

"We have not closed the strait. It is open," Araghchi said in a telephone interview with Kyodo News on Friday. He also stressed that Iran, which was attacked by the United States and Israel in late February, is seeking "not a cease-fire, but a complete, comprehensive and lasting end to the war."

Araghchi said Iran has not closed the strategic waterway but has imposed restrictions on vessels belonging to countries involved in attacks against Iran, while offering assistance to others amid heightened security concerns.

He added that Iran is prepared to ensure safe passage for countries such as Japan if they coordinate with Tehran.

Japan relies on the Middle East for over 90 percent of its crude oil imports, most of which travel through the strait.....

....MUCH MORE 

"Yemen's Houthis weigh Bab al-Mandab blockade to back Iran, official says"

Ah, there they are. We had been wondering why the Houthis hadn't been heard from.

From Chinese state-owned international broadcaster, CGTN, March 20:

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group is weighing the possibility of blocking the Bab al-Mandab Strait to vessels from nations it accuses of aggression against its allies in the "axis of resistance," RIA Novosti reported on Friday.

Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi political bureau, said that any closure would be limited to targeting ships linked to countries engaged in hostilities against Iran, Lebanon, Palestine or Iraq.

The group is examining various courses of action to bolster Iran amid its ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, al-Bukhaiti added.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait, a strategic chokepoint linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, serves as a vital corridor for global trade, particularly oil and gas shipments between Europe and Asia.

Since the war broke out late last month and spread across the Middle East, the Houthis have so far limited themselves to threats and preparations. Meanwhile other "axis of resistance" groups like Hezbollah and Iraqi militias have launched attacks on Israel and US positions in a show of solidarity with Iran.

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi has said his group is ready to act and is coordinating with Iran. The group describes a possible Bab al-Mandab blockade as a key option to support Tehran and pressure the West.

A Houthi blockade of the narrow waterway would force oil and trade vessels to reroute around Africa, raising shipping costs, fuel prices and inflation worldwide while deepening an oil crisis following Iran's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. For the US, it would mean higher domestic energy costs and greater economic strain; globally it would send oil prices soaring and slow growth....

....MORE 

Outro, March 9 - "But what of the Houthis?"  

And March 13 - 

But what of Iran's BFFs, the Houthis? 

 

The Saudi East -West pipeline was a strategic necessity, capable of 7mm Bbl/day, but the Houthis can still target ships approaching or departing through the Bab-al-Mandeb connecting the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. Meaning everything would have to move north through the Suez canal which limits the size of the tankers to 1mm Bbl per i.e the SuezMax ships:

Where this gets doubly interesting is the fact that one of only two Chinese overseas military bases (the other being on the west coast of Cambodia) is parked at the approaches to the Red Sea and that very same Bab al-Mandab. From December 2025's ""How China Built a Network of Ports Encircling the Globe"": 

As we've seen—most recently with Israel's Mossad in Iran and Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb in Russia—tractor-trailers and shipping containers make dandy places to hide your weapons of war. Also handy for transporting same. More after the jump....

....February 2024 -  "Red Sea Rivalries"

The most amazing thing that has been pointed out over the last couple months is that China's base on Djibouti's Gulf of Aden coast, at the approaches to the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint into the Red Sea, gives them the perfect location to monitor Houthi action and American reaction:

—China Officially Sets Up Its First Overseas Base in Djibouti, The Diplomat

From Phenomenal World, February 15....

July 2025 - Indonesia/Malaysia/Singapore: "From Gallipoli to the Strait of Malacca: Why maritime choke points still decide the fate of nations"

So Mr. Risk Manager, what's your 2027 plan? 

"Oh So We’re Actually Going to Get Rid of Quarterly Reporting After All Huh"

From the audit mavens at Going Concern, March 18:

ICYMI: Last September, President Trump truthed about quarterly reporting at 8 in the morning in what seemed like little more than deep thoughts one has while sitting on the can at that hour: 

Subject to SEC Approval, Companies and Corporations should no longer be forced to “Report” on a quarterly basis (Quarterly Reporting!), but rather to Report on a “Six (6) Month Basis.” This will save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies. Did you ever hear the statement that, “China has a 50 to 100 year view on management of a company, whereas we run our companies on a quarterly basis???” Not good!!!

This is what we had to say about it at the time:

President Trump’s Latest Shower Thought Is to Eliminate Quarterly Reporting 

Then we promptly forgot about it because it didn’t seem like the kind of thing that would go anywhere. Oops....

....MUCH MORE 

Also at Going Concern:

KPMG Brings Cheating Into the AI Age By Using AI to Cheat on AI Exams 

Also, also at Going Concern, they also cover tax preparation marketing:

Tax Prep But Make It Catchy

I should do some video marketing.

"Arm’s stock could rocket 50% as Wall Street wakes up to a ‘game-changing’ trend, analyst says"

There's a reason Nvidia really, really wanted to buy Arm. 

From MarketWatch, March 20:

Arm increasingly benefits from central processing units that are becoming ‘indispensable’ in AI data centers 

Wall Street isn’t giving Arm Holdings enough credit for a big business transformation, according to an analyst.  

Arm ARM +3.62%, a chip designer, has been broadening well beyond smartphones and now stands to capitalize even more on the booming market for server central processing units, HSBC’s Frank Lee wrote in a note to clients.

That “game-changing” transition is “still being undervalued by the market,” Lee argued, but he sees room for Arm’s stock to climb more than 50% as the company’s momentum becomes better understood. It’s up 3.9% in Friday morning action, bringing its year-to-date gains to about 23%. 

Lee double-upgraded Arm’s stock on Friday, lifting his rating to buy from reduce and meaningfully boosting his price target to $205 from $90. He wrote that agentic artificial intelligence will spur even greater demand for CPUs....

....MUCH MORE 

"Iran floats Hormuz transit tolls as Persian Gulf states warn of military response"

 From Iran International, March 19:

Iran is considering charging transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a lawmaker said on Thursday, as officials in Tehran stepped up rhetoric over the strategic waterway after this week’s attacks on energy sites in the Persian Gulf.

Somayeh Rafiei said lawmakers are pursuing a bill under which countries using the strait for shipping, energy transit and food supplies would be required to pay tolls and taxes to Iran, framing it as compensation for providing security along the route.

“In the event that the Strait of Hormuz is used as a secure route for ship traffic, energy transit and food supply, countries will be required to pay tolls and taxes to the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Rafiei said.

She also said countries should pay what she described as a security tax in return for Iran maintaining regional security.

The proposal came as senior Iranian officials suggested the war could be used to redefine Tehran’s position in the waterway after the conflict ends.

Mohammad Mokhber said one of the most important opportunities created by the war was the possibility of reshaping Iran’s role in the Strait of Hormuz.

“After the imposed war, by defining a new regime for the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will move from being under sanctions to a powerful position in the region and the world,” Mokhber said.

He added: “By using the strategic position of the Strait of Hormuz, we can sanction them and not allow their ships to pass through this waterway.”....

....MUCH MORE 

Related, from a 2015 post:

Old school rent extraction device

"The standard toll for an average ship in 1241 was 8 denari (1 denarus equaled 0.68 grams of silver)"

—TOLLING THE RHINE in 1254:  COMPLEMENTARY  MONOPOLY REVISITED

Capital Markets: "USD Comes Back Bid after Yesterday's Exaggerated Slide"

From Marc to Market:

The market seemed to overreact to the central bank meetings this week. The market heard Fed Chair Powell as more hawkish than the FOMC statement and took the dollar sharply higher. Yesterday, it overreacted to the Bank of England and European Central Banks and sold the greenback aggressively. The swaps market is discounting three rate hikes this year by the ECB and BOE, and about three basis points of tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Still, after yesterday’s sell-off the dollar has bounced back. The fog of war seems to contribute to the desire for short-term market participants not wanting to be short dollars into the weekend. Even though the US and Israel say that they will not strike Iranian oil infrastructure, there is little sign of de-escalation and yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Bessent made a reference to the possibility that Kharg Island could be taken over by the US. Adding to the mix is today’s “triple-witching” that see a relatively large, $5.7 trillion of options on individual stocks, indices and exchange-traded funds expire. This comes amid a further sell-off in stocks and bonds....

....MUCH MORE  

"German court blocks researcher’s attempt to access Angela Merkel files held in Stasi archives"

From ReMix News, March 16:

A Berlin court ruled that strict privacy protections governing the Stasi archives prevent the release of any files mentioning the former German chancellor 

A Berlin court has rejected a legal bid to obtain files relating to former German Chancellor Angela Merkel from the archives of East Germany’s secret police, ruling that the request does not meet the strict legal conditions governing the release of such records.

The lawsuit was filed by Marcel Luthe, chairman of the Good Governance Union, who argued that he required access to documents mentioning Merkel for a research project examining her conduct during the final years of the German Democratic Republic.

As reported by the Berliner Zeitung, the Berlin Administrative Court dismissed the claim and ordered Luthe to cover approximately €20,000 in legal costs.

In delivering the oral reasoning for the ruling, presiding judge Jens Tegtmeier said the Stasi Records Act does not grant a general right to inspect files about any individual. Instead, the law allows disclosure only under limited circumstances, such as if the person concerned is proven to have collaborated with East Germany or if they were already a public figure at the time the documents were created. According to the court, neither condition applies in Merkel’s case.

The Stasi records themselves are a vast collection of documents created by the Ministry for State Security, the secret police of the former East German communist regime. Before the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the Stasi built one of the most extensive domestic surveillance systems in the world, maintaining millions of files on citizens suspected of political dissent or contact with the West. The archives include informant reports, surveillance notes, photographs, correspondence, and other material gathered through the agency’s network of officers and unofficial collaborators.

After German reunification, these records were preserved and placed under special legal protection. Individuals have the right to view files compiled about them, but access to documents concerning third parties is tightly restricted in order to protect personal privacy.

Luthe did not claim that Merkel had been a Stasi informant, but argued that questions remained about her activities in the late East German period, which justified access to the records.

Among the issues raised in court was an incident in which prohibited Solidarity movement material was reportedly discovered by East German border authorities when Merkel returned from a trip to Poland. Luthe’s legal team argued that similar cases had often resulted in serious consequences, raising questions about why the young Merkel was not punished.

The lawsuit also highlighted Merkel’s role at the Central Institute for Physical Chemistry in East Germany, where she served as Free German Youth (FDJ) secretary, the official communist youth organization of the former East German state.

In addition, Luthe’s representatives argued that Merkel’s role as spokesperson for the reform-era Democratic Awakening party in 1990 could qualify her as a “person of contemporary history,” a legal category that allows broader access to archival material.

The court rejected these arguments, suggesting Merkel was, if anything, only a “minor” political figure at that time and that disclosing her surveillance documents would not be justified. He also said there was no concrete evidence that Merkel had benefited from the Stasi or held a sufficiently prominent public role before German reunification....

....MUCH MORE 

Years ago, back during her time as Bundeskanzler, I recall seeing that she had gone through her files, something I believe was her right as a subject of the file. 

And, as noted in the outro from 2025's "Putin's KGB Masterstroke: Fracking Banned in Europe":

Just yesterday I was considering the old quip "You can take the girl out of East Germany but you can't take East Germany out of the girl" as our intro to "Angela Merkel ‘covered up report blaming China for Covid’" but because it is so difficult to definitively say she was working for the Russians, decided against it.

What you can say is she was probably the second worst Chancellor in German history and that it is hard to think of what she would have done differently, economically and socially had she been driven by that 'ol ostalgie.

As for Schroeder, it seems he was only about the euros (rubles, maybe Deutsche Marks too). From the introduction to 2021's "Ex-Chancellor Schroeder: Berlin Will ‘Cut the Branch It Sits On’ If It Halts Nord Stream 2’s Construction":

Before we get into the story from Russia's Sputnik I should probably reprise a note from a few years ago:

We've pointed out a few times:

...As the kids say: Find someone to look at you the way Putin looks at Gerhard Schröder.

They also hug a lot.
 A lot.

Herr Schröder was Germany's Chancellor before Mutti came in.
Gazprom has paid him a lot of money.

So I am left with, as Lieutenant Columbo would say, "just one more thing":  

What was the real reason Merkel was in Wuhan in September 2019? 

ICYMI: "Bank of England must plan for financial crisis sparked by aliens"

From the Times (o'London Town), January 16: 

A former analyst at the central bank has urged governor Andrew Bailey to put contingencies in place to prevent collapse if alien life is confirmed

The Bank of England must plan for a financial crisis being triggered by an official announcement confirming the existence of alien life, one of its former policy experts has claimed.

Helen McCaw served as a senior analyst in financial security at the UK’s central bank, preparing for events that could impact the economy.

She has now written to Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, urging him to organise contingencies for the possibility that the White House may one day confirm we are not alone in the universe.

• UFO hearing: Congress tells government to come clean on what it knows
McCaw, a Cambridge graduate, believes a declaration of that magnitude would send shockwaves through the markets and could trigger bank collapses and civil unrest.
Until recently, suggestions that governments were covering up the existence of alien life were limited to a small coterie of conspiracy theorists and UFO activists.

However, a host of senior American officials, including the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, the New York senator Kirsten Gillibrand, and James Clapper, a former director of national intelligence, have recently indicated their belief in the possibility of intelligent non-human life. 

Rubio, a close ally of President Trump, told the makers of the recently released UFO documentary The Age of Disclosure: “We’ve had repeated instances of something operating in the airspace over restricted nuclear facilities, and it’s not ours.” 

This month, The Sunday Times disclosed previously classified state files, which showed that the British military sought to obtain “extraterrestrial” technology after receiving credible intelligence that UFOs appeared to be real and could outperform any known human craft. 

McCaw, who worked for the Bank of England for ten years until 2012, insists that politicians and bankers can no longer afford to dismiss talk of alien life and snigger about “little green men”....

....MUCH MORE

And more recently: 

March 15 - "Meanwhile, In Extraterrestrial Markets... (UFOD)" 

March 19 - "White House registers ‘Aliens.gov’ domain name, sparking hope of Trump news on UFOs"

Personally I don't think there will be any mass panic from a jaded and satiated public, maybe a listless "Meh". 

If interested see Krugman (2011).

Paul Krugman: An Alien Invasion Could Fix the Economy 

Creighton University's "Rural Mainstreet Index Falls Below Growth Neutral Again"

From Creighton's Heider College of Business, March 19:

Conflict in Iran Creating Significant Volatility in Ag Sector

March 2026 Survey Results at-a-Glance:

• The overall RMI dropped below growth neutral for March to its lowest level since October 2025.
• Weakness in the farm sector is spilling over into the business community with approximately 27.2% of bankers reporting that small businesses in their area were experiencing declines in business activity.
• After falling below growth neutral for January and February, the March farm and ranchland index rose to 50.2 from 45.5 in February.
• The 2026 conflict in Iran has created significant volatility in the agricultural sector, primarily impacting agricultural equipment sales, with the index falling below growth neutral for the 31st straight month.
• More than half, or 52.4%, indicated no change or declines in delinquency rates, with 47.6 percent reporting that loan delinquency rates increased modestly.

Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI)

OMAHA, Nebraska (March 19, 2026) - According to the latest monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) dropped below growth neutral for March to its lowest level since October 2025.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for March plummeted to 40.9 from February’s 47.9. This marks the 13th time since January 2025 that the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the business community. Approximately, 27.2% of bankers reported that small businesses in their area were experiencing declines in business activity,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farming and ranchland prices: After falling below growth neutral for January and February, the March farm and ranchland index rose to 50.2 from 45.5 in February. “Farm and ranchland prices have been holding up much better than farm income,” said Goss....

....MUCH MORE

The Rural Mainstreet Index is one of two monthly coincident indicators that Professor Goss puts together, the other being the Mid-American Economy Index.

There is nothing else like them and when I write that I include the output of the big four ag-adjacent Federal Reserve Banks: Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City and St. Louis.

Media: "Business Insider has added AI-generated Q&A to stories"

 From TalkingBizNews, March 19:

Business Insider chief product officer Jeff Rabb sent out the following on Thursday:

Today, we’re launching an exciting new feature directly on our story pages to help readers dig deeper into topics related to our coverage....

....MUCH MORE 

"Jeff Bezos aims to raise $100 billion to buy, revamp manufacturing firms with AI, WSJ reports"

From Reuters, March 19:

Jeff Bezos is in early discussions to raise $100 billion for a new fund that would acquire ​manufacturing companies and seek to use AI to ‌drive and speed up automation, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. 

The Amazon.com (AMZN.O) founder is holding talks with some ​of the world's biggest asset managers to secure ​funding for the project, WSJ said.

Bezos traveled to ⁠the Middle East to discuss the new fund ​with sovereign wealth representatives in the region a few ​months ago, according to the report.

Described in investor documents as a "manufacturing transformation vehicle," the fund aims to target companies in major ​industries such as chipmaking, defense, and aerospace, the ​Journal said.

Last year, The New York Times reported that Bezos would ‌serve ⁠as co-CEO of a new startup called Project Prometheus focused on AI for engineering and manufacturing computers, automobiles and spacecraft....

....MORE 

The Journal says the big money is in the Middle East and Singapore. It reads as though the new venture is separate from Project Prometheus.

Here's the 2025 NYT story:

"Jeff Bezos Creates A.I. Start-Up Where He Will Be Co-Chief Executive"

"White House registers ‘Aliens.gov’ domain name, sparking hope of Trump news on UFOs"

From the New York Post, March 19:

A new White House URL is out of this world (wide web).

The eyebrow-raising domain name — “Aliens.gov” — has been added to the federal government’s official website registry, amplifying speculation that President Trump could be gearing up to pull back the curtain on what US intelligence agencies really know about whether we’re alone in the universe.

Though the website is not yet live, the government has reserved the domain name for an as-yet-unknown purpose, registry records show.

The revelation came after it was flagged by an automated tracker of new federal websites on Wednesday, almost exactly a month since the president said he would order top administration officials to identify and release government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrials....

....MUCH MORE 

This follows on March 15's "Meanwhile, In Extraterrestrial Markets... (UFOD)":

ETF Bets on Alien Tech With UFO Disclosure Strategy
A new actively managed ETF is positioning for a hypothetical “Disclosure Day,” when UFO enthusiasts believe the U.S. government could reveal evidence of non-human technology.

One of the strangest ETFs to ever hit the market, the Tuttle Capital UFO Disclosure ETF (UFOD) aims to invest in companies that it says could benefit from “advanced or reverse-engineered alien technology.”

Yes, really....

"Human Brain Cells Run New Data Centers in Singapore, Melbourne"

From Bloomberg, March 9:

Biotech startup Cortical Labs is working on two small data centers run by human brain cells, putting lab-grown neurons onto silicon in an experiment that could one day challenge chips from the likes of Nvidia Corp.

The Australia-based startup unveiled its first biological data center in Melbourne and is building another in Singapore with partner DayOne Data Centers Ltd., it said in a statement on Tuesday. Instead of racks of servers running on conventional processors, the facilities will house biological computers known as CL1 units, powered by human brain cells.

While years or decades away from challenging mainstream technology, the project highlights scientists’ search for novel solutions to address problems arising from an artificial intelligence-induced need for increasing amounts of computing capacity. The swift buildout of AI data centers across the planet has led to environmental concerns over their power needs and water consumption as well as shortages in silicon....

[They grow up so fast.] 

...The computing capacity of Cortical Labs’ systems is modest, but the company is making progress. One of its earlier achievements was to teach its brain cells to play the rudimentary computer game Pong. Last month, it said it had trained them to play the much more advanced title Doom....

....MUCH MORE 

From playing Doom one month to running a data center in Singapore the next. 

March 7 - "Human Brain Cells Learn to Play Doom in Cortical Labs Experiment"

Possibly also of interest:

September 2018 - Lab Grown Mini-Brains Raise Some Ethical Questions

June 2024 - Another Way To Beat AI's Power Consumption Problem: Brain Organoids

Previously in organoids and such:

"Lab-Grown Mini Kidneys 'Go Rogue,' Sprout Brain and Muscle Cells"
Getting into a weird area here.

Ah, the Swiss: "Nestle Finds a Reliable Supply of Brain Cells"

ICYMI: "Researchers Teach Human Brain Cells in a Dish to Play 'Pong'"

"Cyborg computer with living brain organoid aces machine learning tests"

The Act of Thinking Can Accelerate Brain Tumor Growth
Yikes. Shut it down, shut it down, Ōm shanti shanti shanti, Ōm.

"Is proximity to doom good or bad for the stock market?"

A repost from 2016.

Ahead Of This Weekend's Votes In Italy and Austria: Is Doom Bad For The Stock Market?

TL;DR: No
Unless it's doom like getting caught on the wrong side of the Denarius/Shekel pair in A.D. 70 where it wasn't just the FX guys but the real estate developers out at the "Future site of Masada Manor" who got hammered.
Then it's a problem and you should probably brush up on your Latin.

From CXO Advisory:
Is proximity to doom good or bad for the stock market?

To measure proximity to doom, we use the Doomsday Clock “Minutes-to-Midnight” metric, revised occasionally via the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which “conveys how close we are to destroying our civilization with dangerous technologies of our own making. First and foremost among these are nuclear weapons, but the dangers include climate-changing technologies, emerging biotechnologies, and cybertechnology that could inflict irrevocable harm, whether by intention, miscalculation, or by accident, to our way of life and to the planet.” Using the timeline for the Doomsday Clock since inception and contemporaneous annual returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) during 1947 through most of 2016 (23 doom proximity judgments), we find that:
The following chart relates annual DJIA return (2016 partial) to same-year “Minutes to Midnight” judgment as available over the sample period based on two assumptions:

1. Changes in “Minutes to Midnight” occur near the beginning of years. For example, the 3-minute proximity to doom for 2015 relates to the 2015 DJIA return of -2.2%.
2. When there is no change for a given year, “Minutes to Midnight” is that same as the most recently issued judgment. For example, the proximity to doom for 2013 and 2014 is the same as that for 2012.

The Pearson correlation between these two series is -0.04 and the R-squared statistic 0.001, indicating practically no relationship between proximity to doom and annual DJIA return.

Might there be a lag between proximity to doom and stock market return?

The next chart summarizes annual correlations between “Minutes to Midnight” and DJIA annual return for lead-lag relationships ranging from DJIA return leads proximity to doom by five years (-5) to proximity to doom leads DJIA return by five years (5). All correlations are too small to indicate any relationship....MORE

Comments On Nvidia From Some Fans (NVDA)

As GTC, San Jose, 2026 wraps up, some commentary.

First up, Yahoo Finance, March 19:

Nvidia's changing its strategic approach to AI, going all in on inferencing and agents 

Jensen Huang took the stage at Nvidia’s (NVDA) GTC event in San Jose, Calif., on Monday, clad in his usual leather jacket, to provide the world with an update about what the world’s most valuable company has been cooking up over the last few months.

Huang was as indefatigable as ever as he ran through his roughly two-and-a-half-hour keynote in front of some 30,000 attendees. But what’s come to be known as the Super Bowl of AI featured a noticeable shift in Nvidia’s overall AI strategy — a deeper focus on inferencing, or powering AI models, and agents.

Nvidia’s chips are traditionally known for their general-purpose use. They can train and run AI models, power robots, and serve as the backbone of self-driving cars.

And while Nvidia’s offerings are still the industry standard, upstart chip companies like Cerebras and Groq have begun designing and rolling out processors geared specifically toward running AI models, creating a potential threat to Nvidia’s formidable AI moat.

Huang and company answered that at GTC with a slew of announcements meant to prove Nvidia is the inferencing leader to beat, including the debut of its Groq 3 chip and rack system.

Nvidia didn’t just go further with its inferencing capabilities, though. The company also showed off its addition to the much-hyped world of OpenClaw high-powered AI agents.

OpenClaw, which debuted as Clawd in November 2025 before being renamed Moltbot and finally OpenClaw in January, has taken off thanks to its ability to run AI agents powered by different AI models on users’ machines via apps like WhatsApp, Discord, Slack, and others.

Now, Nvidia is getting in on the buzz with its NemoClaw platform designed to improve the security and privacy of the agents.

“They are evolving in a big way, not only in inference, agentic, too,” TECHnalysis Research founder and chief analyst Bob O’Donnell told Yahoo Finance.

“The switch to OpenClaw, and now NemoClaw, to me, is even more indicative of this. It just shows how quickly they are reacting to the market.”

Nvidia moves further into inferencing 
Nvidia’s decision to include Groq 3 as one of the seven chip platforms that make up Vera Rubin is part of its effort to stay ahead of the broader industry.

Nvidia signed a $20 billion deal with Groq in December, hiring founder Jonathan Ross, president Sunny Madra, and other members of the Groq team and giving Nvidia access to Groq’s intellectual property.

The results of the deal are Nvidia’s new Groq 3 language processing unit (LPU) and Groq 3 LPX server rack. That’s right, Nvidia now has graphics processing units (GPUs), LPUs, and central processing units (CPUs). It’s a lot of units....

....MUCH MORE 

And at Barron's March 19:

Nvidia Is Giving Apple Vibes. Why That Spells Big Things for the Stock.

The artificial-intelligence revolution has entered a new phase, one in which running AI models, known as inference, is taking over as the main source of demand for AI computing. Nvidia was the winner of round one when training the AI models drove chip sales. But things change quickly in tech, and the company still has to convince the market and customers that it remains indispensable.

CEO Jensen Huang devoted his keynote address at Nvidia’s GTC conference this past week to make the case. He reminded everyone that Nvidia had spent two decades building an ecosystem of hardware and software that makes its platform the least costly for AI. By the end of his speech, Huang had delivered a vision of Nvidia that reminded me of just one other company: Apple.

For years, Wall Street didn’t appreciate that Apple was more than just a hardware firm. Apple’s version of consumer technology provides a carefully thought-out bundle. The hardware is expensive, but it comes with a lot of free software and services that bring everything together seamlessly. In the end, the platform is sticky and full of value.

This is sometimes called Apple’s “walled garden.” iPhones, Macs, and Watches work like one because Apple controls the entire technology stack: the chips, the devices, the operating systems, the applications, and the cloud services. It’s all developed together, so it all just works together.

You’re free to leave the garden through a well-hidden gate, but the flowers are nice and the sun is shining, so why would you?

Nvidia is employing that Apple model of full control in an entirely different market: AI computing. More and more, Nvidia is moving toward being a full platform with an ecosystem of hardware, software, and partnerships that could be sticky like Apple’s, notwithstanding growing competition in the AI chip market.

It begins with Nvidia controlling as many layers of data center infrastructure as it can, what CEO Jensen Huang calls “extreme codesign.” A lot of attention is paid to Nvidia GPU chips, the workhorses of AI data centers, but there are five other Nvidia chips inside its coming Vera Rubin AI server, each with a crucial role in making a product that can’t be matched. The chips work better because they are designed together to work together.

Nvidia also makes data center network switches that alleviate a key computing bottleneck. In the last quarter, networking sales were responsible for 16% of Nvidia revenue, up from 8% the year before. It’s now the fastest-growing unit in Nvidia’s reporting.

This year, Nvidia will integrate a new server design built around AI inference chips from start-up Groq. Vera Rubin will work in concert with Groq on demanding inference tasks. Creating a data center with mixed servers that collaborate with each other is a thorny problem that Nvidia solved with software called Dynamo. Nvidia’s hardware still leads the industry, but the deepest part of the company’s moat is all the software it’s created to run on its hardware.

Huang began his GTC keynote by talking about the 20th anniversary of Nvidia’s most important software known as CUDA, or Compute Unified Device Architecture. In 2004, Nvidia hired Ian Buck, an engineer fresh out of Stanford University, to create a way for programmers to use Nvidia GPUs for a lot more than just computer graphics and gaming. Two years later, CUDA was born.

Nvidia kept developing the software, and by 2012, AI researchers had made Nvidia’s platform their preferred kit. A whole generation of researchers grew up on it. When ChatGPT triggered the generative AI craze in 2022, no one was more prepared for it than Nvidia.

Buck remains a Nvidia employee.

Nvidia has continued to build the ecosystem on top of the GPU-CUDA combination. The company’s online code portfolio has 700 repositories, including specialized software for engineering, physics, weather, and medical science, along with tools for AI training, inference, and agents. These are active projects with new versions rolling out all the time. Over a third of the repositories have received updates in the past month.

Nvidia is also the world’s largest contributor to open-source AI models with 715 of them available for download....

....MUCH MORE 

Also at Barron's, March 18:

Sure, Nvidia Stock Is Stuck. But Don’t Ignore Its Huge Cash Returns

The stock is down $2.45 (-1.36%) at $177.95.

This week:

• As Nvidia's Developer Confab Kicks Off, Some Hard-Won Insight (NVDA)
• Highlights Of Jensen Huang's GTC Keynote Speech, March 16, 2026 (NVDA)
• Transcript: Analyst Q&A, Nvidia GTC, March 17, 2026 (NVDA)

Sadly, I don't think we'll see anything as insightful as 2024's "Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang debuts new $8,990 lizard-embossed leather jacket, also says something about AI GPUs: (NVDA)

Although....looking back to 2016's "Huh, This NVIDIA Company May Be On To Something (NVDA)" it's possible I''ll come up with something.

After a series of all-time highs last week the stock looks set to open up a couple pennies at $44.35.
From the Wall Street Journal:

New Chips Propel Machine Learning  

Divide by 40 to account for the stock splits and we see $1.11 on the old stock. 

"'Worse Than Nord Stream': Iran's Attack On Qatar's LNG Sends Shockwaves Across Global Energy Markets"

Seeing Brent futures above $119 while WTI was trading around $96 [and oil for delivery to Asian refiners was commanding $150+] earlier today was a bit of a jolt.

From ZeroHedge, March 19:

Brent crude futures surged toward $120/bbl, while WTI remained muted around $96/bbl, as Wednesday marked a major escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Israeli fighter jets struck Iran's giant South Pars gas field with air-delivered munitions, triggering a retaliatory chain reaction in which IRGC forces targeted critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

Iranian drone and missile strikes caused heavy damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub, while gas plants in Abu Dhabi shut down, Kuwaiti refineries were hit by drones, and Saudi refining assets were targeted.

Unlike temporary shipping disruptions in the Gulf waters or the Strait of Hormuz, damage to upstream energy assets, such as production and LNG facilities, is far more serious and could take months or even years to repair, raising the risk of prolonged tight global supply.

Read overnight report:

• Iran's Attack On Qatar's LNG Plant Is Bad; The Math Behind The Global LNG Fleet Is Far Worse

Some 20% of global LNG exports originate from Gulf countries, and the latest round of Israeli and IRGC attacks on upstream energy assets shows how the conflict has entered an entirely new phase where energy infrastructure is being directly targeted.

Disruptions at Qatar's LNG facilities threaten to tighten the global gas market, with ripple effects quickly spreading worldwide - across Asia, Europe, and even U.S. gas prices.

European natural gas benchmark futures jumped as much as 35% today, pushing prices to more than double their pre-war levels, as traders brace for what only appears to be a prolonged period of disruption from critical LNG hubs that account for a fifth of the world's total supply.

QatarEnergy warned earlier that LNG facilities inside its Ras Laffan Industrial City were attacked by missiles, "causing sizable fires and extensive further damage."

"This could be a game changer for the LNG industry, akin to the attack on Nord Stream or possibly even worse," Susan Sakmar, visiting assistant professor at the University of Houston Law Center, said, quoted by Bloomberg. "This is a sudden disruption, with no indication that Qatar could restart anytime soon."

Global Risk Management analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen warned, "LNG from Qatar could in principle be offline for months and, in the worst case, for years. For the gas market, the crisis does not end simply because the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens."

UBS analyst Matt Salmon commented on the exploding energy risk premia due to overnight war developments:

Geopolitical risk premia in the energy complex rose further following attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, after President Trump failed earlier this week to establish an international coalition to support the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In a clear escalation of hostilities, Iranian energy infrastructure was targeted for the first time in the conflict, with Israel striking the South Pars gas field, while the US claimed no prior knowledge.

Iran had warned early in the conflict that there would be "no red lines" around retaliatory actions, and it made good on this threat with two strikes in less than 12 hours on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the world's largest LNG facility, with state operator QatarEnergy reporting "extensive damage."

....MUCH MORE 

Norway’s Equinor Drills A Wildcat Well, Hits Oil

Henceforth (and perhaps forevermore) Australia to relinquish the moniker "The lucky Country" to Norway. 

From OilPrice, March 18:

Norway’s Equinor Makes Oil Discovery Near Huge Arctic Field 

Equinor has made an oil discovery in a wildcat well in a prospect close to the giant Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate said on Wednesday.    

Equinor, as the operator, and its partners in the Polynya Tubåen prospect, Var Energi and Petoro, estimate to have found between 14 and 24 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalent, and are now considering whether they could tie the discovery back to the Johan Castberg field.

In 2025, Equinor started up the Johan Castberg project, which last summer hit full capacity of 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil production.

Johan Castberg will produce crude for 30 years, boost Norway’s oil exports, and bolster the role of Western Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer as a reliable and long-term supplier of energy, Equinor said....

....MUCH MORE 

Earlier today:

As Fuel Runs Out: "Australia stops in three weeks"

Capital Markets: "Limited Follow-Through Dollar Today After Yesterday's Surge"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex: 

The US dollar rallied strongly during the Federal Reserve’s press conference yesterday as rates jumped in response to what was widely seen as a hawkish hold, especially given Chair Powell’s framing. There has been limited follow-through dollar sales today, but the technical damage inflicted on many pairs has not been reversed. The Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and Sweden’s Riksbank have announced unchanged policies, as expected, and now attention turns to the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Neither will move, but how they view the risks is important. We expect both will indicate the lack of urgency. 

The war appears to have been extended with the attack on the South Pars gas field jointly run by Iran and Qatar. News reports say that President Trump is urging restraint, but the horse seems to have bolted already. Given the feints and attack on Iran during negotiations and after the US claimed to have destroyed Iran’s nuclear capability last June, it is difficult to know what is real and what is a war tactic. May WTI is within yesterday’s range, but the front month Brent contract made new highs today....

....MUCH MORE  

As Fuel Runs Out: "Australia stops in three weeks"

From Australia's MacroBusiness, March 18:

As we know, China has banned refined fuel shipments, restricting the world’s supply. Overnight, Korea capped exports at 2020 levels, and Thailand banned them.

As well, Singapore refinery runs have begun to wane, with capacity utilisation down meaningfully from 20-50% as it runs out of oil.

These shortages have not even arrived in Australia yet, but will over the next week or so as tanker volumes fall away.

80% of the volumes that flowed through the Straits of Hormuz went to Asia. That is, Asia has lost 12mb/d of its oil supply. It consumes about 40mb/d so that’s about 30%.

I really can’t see how or why Asian refineries are going to be allowed to ship fuel to Australia when home country supply is at risk.

This raises the likelihood that Australia will lose a much larger share of its fuel supply than the 15% of global supply offline.

30% seems more probable within a month.

The nightmare scenario, which is also the base case, is that resource nationalism overruns the oil market globally.

The US, which is legally able to limit oil shipments under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), is currently the focus of attention.

The ban on exports there, especially for refined products rather than crude oil, is a strong possibility as prices climb....

....MUCH MORE 

At the moment, "Exxon, BP, Vitol ship most US fuels to Australia for a single month in three decades, traders say".

From Reuters, March 19:

At least 200,000 tons of refined fuels to be shipped

Tankers will mostly be loaded by the end of March

Voyage typically takes 30-40 days

Australia usually relies on Asia for most of its fuel imports

ExxonMobil, BP and Vitol are shipping a record volume of oil products to Australia ‌from the United States in March, shipping data from trading sources shows, filling a gap left by the loss of regular supplies from Asia as the Iran conflict disrupts supplies.

 

Australia usually relies on Asia for the vast majority of its oil product imports, but China and Thailand have banned fuel exports to preserve domestic supplies ​and refiners across the region are cutting output as Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sharply cuts crude exports from the ​Middle East.

 

At least 200,000 metric tons of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel have been loaded, or will be ⁠loaded, by the end of March from the U.S. Gulf Coast and West Coast for shipment to Australia, shipping data from three trade ​sources shows.

 

The volume represents the most fuel shipped to Australia from the U.S. for a single month in more than three decades, based ​on U.S. Energy Information Administration data....

....MUCH MORE, including a handy conversion table:

(1 ton = 7.45 barrels of diesel)

(1 ton = 7.88 barrels of ​jet fuel)

(1 ton = 8.45 barrels of gasoline)

Inflation: BLS Producer Price Index Comes In Hotter Than Predicted

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 18:

PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES - FEBRUARY 2026 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.5 percent in January and 0.4 percent in December 2025. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended in February, the largest 12- month advance since increasing 3.4 percent in February 2025.

More than half of the February rise in prices for final demand can be attributed to a 0.5-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods increased 1.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.5 percent in February, the tenth consecutive advance. For the 12 months ended in February, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.5 percent.

Final Demand Final demand services: The index for final demand services rose 0.5 percent in February, the third straight advance. Nearly three-fourths of the February broad-based increase can be traced to prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, which moved up 0.6 percent. The indexes for final demand trade services and for final demand transportation and warehousing services also rose, 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)

Product detail: About 20 percent of the February advance in the index for final demand services is attributable to a 5.7-percent jump in prices for traveler accommodation services. The indexes for food and alcohol wholesaling; securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; fuels and lubricants retailing; long-distance motor carrying; and inpatient care also rose. In contrast, margins for apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing fell 4.5 percent. The indexes for gaming receipts (partial) and for airline passenger services also decreased. (See table 2.)

Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods increased 1.1 percent in February, the largest rise since moving up 1.6 percent in August 2023. Forty percent of the February broad-based advance can be traced to the index for final demand foods, which jumped 2.4 percent. Prices for final demand energy and for final demand goods less foods and energy also increased, 2.3 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.

Product detail: Over 20 percent of the February rise in the index for final demand goods is attributable to a 48.9-percent jump in prices for fresh and dry vegetables. The indexes for diesel fuel, chicken eggs, gasoline, jet fuel, and tobacco products also increased. Conversely, prices for jewelry and jewelry products fell 4.0 percent. The indexes for home heating oil and for soft drinks also declined....

....MUCH MORE, tables, narrative

Core PPI rose 0.5% on the month, above 0.3% forecasts. The core PPI inflation rate picked up to 3.9% from 3.6%.