"Private payrolls rose by 109,000 in April, topping expectations, ADP says"

From CNBC, May 6:

• Private companies added 109,000 jobs for the month, a step up from the 61,000 created in March and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 84,000, ADP reported Wednesday.
• Education and health services again dominated, adding 61,000 jobs. Trade, transportation and utilities gained 25,000. Construction, another consistent leader in recent months, rose by 10,000.
• Though the headline number was better than expected, it’s broadly consistent with what Fed policymakers and economists have described as a low-hire, low-fire environment.

Private sector job creation was stronger than expected in April, providing more evidence of a stable labor market and less incentive for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates amid persistently higher inflation, ADP reported Wednesday.

The payrolls processing firm said companies added 109,000 jobs for the month, a step up from the 61,000 created in March and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 84,000. The March total was revised down by 1,000.

Wages for those staying in their jobs rose 4.4% annually, down 0.1 percentage point....

....MUCH MORE 

Reuters Analysis-"Stunning US profit strength ignites stocks' charge to record peaks"

From Reuters, May 6:

• Q1 earnings for S&P 500 on track to rise 28.2%, strongest since Q4 2021
• Estimates for rest of 2026 also climbing
• AI boost, corporate resiliency seen as key for US businesses

NEW YORK, May 6 (Reuters) - A humming U.S. corporate profit engine is at the heart of the U.S. stock market's rally to record highs - an encouraging sign for investors as long as the fuel driving profits keeps flowing. 

More than two-thirds through ​the first-quarter reporting season, S&P 500 companies are on track for their highest quarterly earnings growth in more than four years. Future projections are also growing rosier: Analysts' estimates ‌for future 12-month U.S. earnings have risen by over 10% since the start of the year, according to LSEG Datastream. 

As some of the worst-case economic fears tied to the war in Iran have receded, investors said Wall Street has been able to focus on the earnings strength, helped by massive investments in artificial intelligence technology and a generally solid economic backdrop.

 

"Because things have not gotten worse and the ceasefire has been in place for some time now, it's been earnings that have driven the ​move higher," said Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network.

 

The benchmark S&P 500  is up 6% for the year, building on three straight years of solid double-digit percentage gains. The ​index has surged more than 14% since March 30, following a swoon sparked by the start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

 

STRONGEST QUARTER IN 20 YEARS?

Investors ⁠had expected generally solid results when the reporting season kicked off last month, but they have far surpassed expectations. S&P 500 earnings are expected to have jumped 28.2% in the first quarter from a year ​earlier, including results from 350 index companies that have reported and analysts' estimates for those yet to report, according to data as of Tuesday from Tajinder Dhillon, head of earnings and equity research at LSEG Data & Analytics.

That ​increase would be the highest since the fourth quarter of 2021, when businesses were recovering from pandemic lockdowns.

 

"Excluding special factors like favorable base effects and corporate tax cuts, earnings growth is arguably the strongest in two decades," Binky Chadha, chief U.S. equity strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note....

....MUCH MORE 

Capital Markets: "TACO Delivered a Day after Cinco De Mayo"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

There is one overarching fundamental development today that is driving the risk-on in the capital markets and weighing on the dollar. President Trump announced the US was suspending its new escort service in the Strait of Hormuz. Ostensibly at the request of Pakistan and other countries, the decision was to give negotiators more time. Front-month oil futures contracts are off 8-10% today. It has arrested the rise in bond yields and is lifting equities. 

The dollar is lower against the G10 currencies, but the Norwegian krone, which is particularly sensitive to large moves in crude oil prices. The yen jump dramatically in a few minutes in Asia Pacific turnover, and although Japanese markets were still closed for the extended holiday today, there is much speculation that Japan officials intervened again as the dollar had reached its best level (almost JPY158) since the apparent intervention on April 30....

...MUCH MORE  

"Axios: US and Iran nearing one-page MOU to end war, start 30 days of nuclear talks"

From/via the Times of Israel, May 6:

The White House believes it’s nearing a one-page memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the war and lay out a framework for talks on the regime’s nuclear program, Axios reports, citing two US officials and two other sources briefed on the issue.

The US expects a response from the Islamic Republic within the next 48 hours, according to the outlet.

It says the proposal consists of 14 points, and is being crafted by Trump’s Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff and the president’s aide and son-in-law Jared Kushner, in collaboration with several Iranian officials.

The plan would reportedly declare an end to the war and trigger a 30-day negotiation period, in pursuit of an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz, limit Iran’s nuclear program, and lift US sanctions on the regime.

The US is reportedly seeking a moratorium on all uranium enrichment by Iran for at least 12 years, with a provision that would extend the moratorium if Iran were found to have violated it.

At the end of the negotiated period, the Islamic Republic would be allowed to enrich to the low, civilian-use level of 3.67%, while committing never to seek a nuclear weapon and to submit to enhanced inspections, including snap inspections by the UN....

....MUCH MORE 

Goldman Sachs: "Tracking Trillions: The Assumptions Shaping the Scale of the AI Build-Out"

From Goldman, May 1:

Executive Summary

The AI CapEx debate is usually framed as a demand-side question—will adoption justify the spend?—but the size of the investment itself is not a single, fixed number. It is highly sensitive to a small set of assumptions about how the infrastructure itself is built and renewed.

Four assumptions are most impactful in determining the scale of the build-out:

• 1 The economic useful life of AI silicon, where small shifts in replacement cadence move cumulative spend by hundreds of billions
• 2 The cost and complexity of next-generation data centers, which are rising as AI workloads push power density higher and system integration deeper
• 3 The chip and architecture mix, whose impact depends on whether compute demand is elastic (reshaping margins) or inelastic (reshaping totals)
• 4 Elongation from power, labor, and equipment bottlenecks, which in stress scenarios can feed back into demand-side doubt

Several widely discussed dynamics matter for returns, volatility, and value distribution across the ecosystem but do not materially change the aggregate scale of capital required.

Current estimates of the ultimate scale of the AI build-out—regardless of the demand side—are far more conditional than they appear. For investors and operators, a critical question remains: What fundamental assumptions do we have about the future, and how resilient are our plans to changes in those assumptions?

This analysis is a scenario-based framework intended to explore how different infrastructure assumptions may affect aggregate capital requirements, not a forecast of future spending.

Framing the Question

A single AI query feels weightless—a question typed, an answer returned, no moving parts in sight. But the progress of AI rests on a deeply physical edifice: millions of processors, hundreds of thousands of kilometers of cabling, industrial cooling systems, and power demands that rival those of midsize countries. Better understanding of the complexity of that physical infrastructure—and the assumptions upon which its build-out rests—should inform how we think about the scale, durability, and risks of today’s AI capital expenditure boom.

The scale of these expenditures is enormous. Estimates of $4 trillion to $8 trillion of total capital investment over the next five years have featured prominently in recent market commentary. That capital is used to buy new chips, build new data centers, and construct new power, all in an effort assemble sufficient computing infrastructure to meet the moment. Debates about whether this figure is “too high” are usually framed around a demand-side question: Will AI adoption and monetization justify the spend?

But there is an equally important supply-side unknown. The scale of required investment for the AI build-out is itself more uncertain than commonly assumed. Estimates rest on a number of assumptions that, if changed, can significantly increase or decrease the amount of capital required.

Not all assumptions matter equally in this equation. A small number of assumptions determines how much capital must ultimately be deployed to build AI infrastructure, while other assumptions—despite commanding significant attention—primarily influence timing, monetization, or the distribution of returns.

The most critical assumptions for the level of capital expenditure required for the AI build-out include the following:

• The economic useful life of AI chips
• The cost and complexity of building next-generation data centers
• The way chip architectural choices translate into system-level costs
• The elongation of the build-out due to physical and institutional bottlenecks

Much of the broader debate focuses on dynamics that matter for returns but do not materially alter the amount of capital that must be deployed. This analysis examines these assumptions and suggests a framework for understanding which changes would push the headline capital expenditure figures higher or lower than current estimates. 

Baseline Estimates

Baseline aggregate AI CapEx estimates (bn)
~$7.6tr of capital between 2026 and 2031 across compute, data centers, and power 

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Institute, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research NVIDIA projections (as of March 3, 2026) Note: Forecasts and expectations are based on material assumptions subject to change. Assumes NVIDIA accounts for 75% of total compute spend in each period. Assumes 5% YoY compute growth past the projection period (2031). Uses VR200 (Rubin) chip as baseline spec ($80.5K per GPU [incl. node costs] and 3,000 W per package) across all years. Assumes 1.2 PUE, $15mn per MW for data centers, and $2,500 per kW for new power. Assumes 15% of required data center space is brownfield (i.e., excluded from calculation) in 2026, growing to 30% in 2031. Totals may not sum due to rounding.

We begin with a baseline model that projects the total scale of AI infrastructure investment implied by today’s chip sales estimates. We anchor this baseline to NVIDIA’s forward data center revenue Wall Street estimates as a proxy for prevailing expectations around XPU (GPU and other accelerators) deployment and then infer the associated requirements for data centers, power, and supporting infrastructure. This approach does not attempt to forecast AI adoption or end-market demand; rather, it provides a consistent reference point against which we can test how different supply-side assumptions expand or contract the overall scale of investment.

The baseline model implies $765 billion in annual AI CapEx in 2026, growing to $1.6 trillion in annual CapEx in 2031.

These figures include a variety of components necessary for the AI build-out. The core unit of AI infrastructure is the accelerator—a processor purpose-built for the parallel computation that AI workloads demand. Today's leading systems, such as NVIDIA's GB300 NVL72, pack 72 of these processors into a single rack, connected by high-speed backplanes and linked across facilities by hundreds of thousands of kilometers of cabling. These systems generate enormous heat, requiring industrial-scale liquid cooling. And all of it sits within data centers equipped with dedicated power delivery, redundancy systems, and grid or behind-the-meter generation. Together these layers account for baseline estimates that anticipate roughly $7.6 trillion of cumulative CapEx between 2026 and 2031. The key question is, how might changes in the useful life of silicon, the cost and complexity of data centers, the mix of chip architecture, or the pace at which physical bottlenecks persist push that figure materially higher or lower?

Assumption 1: The Economic Useful Life of AI Chips

AI accelerators (GPUs, ASICs, etc.) are the engines of AI infrastructure, and large-scale data centers house hundreds of thousands of these chips. These devices have a useful life—typically estimated at four to six years—bounded by physical degradation on one side and economic obsolescence on the other, as each new generation delivers step-change improvements in performance. Useful life of silicon chips is the single most influential variable in determining the scale of cumulative AI infrastructure investment.

Unlike other major components of the stack—data center buildings, which are typically depreciated over roughly 20 years, or power infrastructure, which often spans 25 years or more—AI silicon turns over on much shorter cycles. This fact, paired with its high cost per unit, is what makes the silicon replacement cadence so consequential.

Uncertainty around AI silicon’s useful life reflects a core tension: Rapid improvements in performance per dollar between generations of AI silicon push companies to replace hardware quickly, while the growing range of AI tasks means older chips can still deliver value for longer. This tension is sharpened by NVIDIA's unprecedented annual release cadence for GPU architectures, with each generation delivering step-function leaps in capability rather than incremental improvements. Many analysts believe that this mismatch between the annual release schedule and the quantum advances of each new generation makes the prevailing accounting treatment of four-to-six-year depreciation schedules less reflective of the value of the underlying assets.

Because silicon accounts for a large share of AI infrastructure CapEx, small changes in assumed useful life have outsize effects on cumulative spend. Extending average economic life from four years to six years materially reduces the number of replacement cycles over a given horizon—while shortening it has the opposite effect. At scale, these differences translate into substantial changes in aggregate capital requirements—and, critically, into the level of annual depreciation borne by the ecosystem—even as spending on buildings and power infrastructure remains largely unchanged.

Sensitizing the useful life of silicon
Impact on annual compute depreciation from altering silicon useful life from 3 years to 7 years

Goldman Sachs Global Institute, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research NVIDIA projections (as of March 3, 2026) Note: Forecasts and expectations are based on material assumptions subject to change. Assumes straight-line depreciation and no terminal value for GPUs. Totals may not sum due to rounding.

To illustrate: A single accelerator purchased at $50,000 and depreciated over five years carries $10,000 per year in depreciation expense. However, if that chip becomes operationally obsolete or uneconomic to run before the depreciation schedule expires—because a new generation delivers dramatically better performance per dollar—the operator is still carrying the cost of an asset that no longer drives the economic value it once did. Multiply that dynamic across hundreds of thousands of devices, and the risk becomes a threat to the fundamental economics of the AI ecosystem. Accounting statements may reflect orderly depreciation, but operational obsolescence can impose a very different economic reality—and those shifts can arrive abruptly.

But one dynamic that could extend useful lives—and lend support to the prevailing depreciation treatment—is the emergence of a tiered deployment model for AI silicon. Beyond the demand for leading-edge training lies many less performance-sensitive workloads that may be well suited to trailing-edge silicon and benefit from the depreciated cost of such devices—such as certain inference scenarios, edge computing, deployment in emerging markets, and synthetic data generation. Today, the rental price of trailing-edge NVIDIA devices such as A100s and H100s remains high enough to suggest useful lives of five to six-plus years. That could be a consequence of the extreme capacity constraints model providers are operating under today, or it could be a signal about the sustained value of silicon in the AI era—and thus the appropriateness of its prevailing depreciation timelines.

Buildings and power systems are long-lived assets, while AI silicon turns over far more quickly. As a result, assumptions about accelerator replacement cycles can plausibly shift multiyear infrastructure investment totals by hundreds of billions of dollars.

Assumption 2: The Cost and Complexity of Building Next-Generation Data Centers....

....MUCH MORE 

"Asia markets hit records on AI euphoria, yen surges again"

From Reuters, May 5/6: 

• KOSPI clears 7,000 mark as Samsung joins the $1 trillion club
• MSCI All-Country World Index sets fresh all-time high
• Yen surges to 155 against the dollar as intervention talk swirls

Stocks leapt, oil prices sank and the dollar dropped on Wednesday ​after U.S. President Donald Trump touted "great progress" towards a "final agreement" with Tehran, while momentum in AI-driven trades accelerated.

 

Trump said he would ‌briefly pause an operation escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil and has been blockaded by Iran since late February, triggering a global energy crisis. The news sent Brent crude tumbling 1.6% to $108.07 per barrel, while S&P 500 e-mini futures were up 0.3%.

 

MSCI's All-Country World Index rose 0.4% to ​a fresh record alongside similar milestones for its Emerging Markets benchmark and its broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan  which jumped ​2.8%. The share surge was led by a 6.6% charge for South Korea's Kospi 

which cleared the 7,000 mark ⁠for the first time.

 

Elsewhere in foreign exchange markets, the yen strengthened sharply in afternoon trading, gaining as much as 1.8% to 155 against the ​dollar as traders remained on the lookout for fresh intervention by authorities in Tokyo in support of the beleaguered currency.

 

"There’s a bit of optimism around ​a U.S.-Iran 'deal' at the moment; it’s possible the authorities decided that was a good moment to give the yen an extra nudge," said Thomas Mathews, head of markets for Asia Pacific at Capital Economics in Wellington. "That said, it might just be thin holiday-affected trade; best to wait and see how it fares towards the end of the ​week."....

....MUCH MORE 

 

Also at Reuters: 

 

Samsung Electronics' market cap surpasses $1 trln after US AI chip stocks surge 

GLP-1 Weight Loss Drugs Cut Need For Millions of Truckloads Of (junk) Food

From FreightWaves, March 22:

Ozempic slims America — and it’s lightening truckers’ loads!

The freight market is no stranger to disruptive forces — tariffs, recessions, weather, economic fluctuations, and capacity crunches have all reshaped freight demand over the years. But a new contender is emerging from an unexpected corner: the widespread adoption of GLP-1 medications (think Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and similar GLP-1 receptor agonists).

These drugs, originally developed for diabetes management and now massively popular for weight loss, suppress appetite and reduce overall caloric intake. Early estimates suggest that even at current penetration levels — roughly 12% of U.S. adults — the downstream effect on food and beverage demand could be substantial.

Recent analyses, drawing from academic studies out of Purdue, Cornell, and others (including 2025 updates), point to an approximate 3% drop in total caloric food demand due to appetite suppression. That may sound modest, but in the context of America’s food supply chain, the numbers scale quickly.

U.S. trucks move more than 2 billion tons of food and beverages annually. At an average payload of around 20 tons per truckload, that’s roughly 100 million+ truckloads per year dedicated to food and bev freight.

Apply a 3% reduction across that volume, and you’re looking at approximately 3 million fewer truckloads annually....

....MUCH MORE 

And thus doing more to cut carbon dioxide emissions than most partisan policy prescriptions.

Blue Energy and GE Vernova Plan 2.5 Gigawatt Gas Nuclear Hybrid (GEV)

 Sadly it wont be called Prius+ (+++++++++)

From InvestorsHub via MSN, May 5

Blue Energy and GE Vernova plan hybrid nuclear-gas power plant in Texas

Blue Energy and GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE:GEV) have unveiled plans to jointly develop a 2.5-gigawatt power facility in Texas that will combine nuclear and natural gas generation. The companies say the project would be the first of its kind to integrate both technologies at this scale. 

Combining Nuclear and Gas Technologies 
The proposed plant will incorporate GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy’s BWRX-300 small modular reactor alongside GE Vernova’s 7HA.02 gas turbines. Blue Energy is targeting a final investment decision in 2027, with delivery of the gas turbines expected by 2029.

Phased Development Timeline 
Blue Energy has already secured approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a development approach that allows key construction phases to be carried out in a different sequence. The company plans to begin preliminary site work in 2026 and submit its application for a construction permit in 2027.

Under current plans, the gas turbines would begin supplying around 1 gigawatt of electricity from 2030. Once the nuclear reactors are operational—potentially as early as 2032—the facility would transition to delivering approximately 1.5 gigawatts of nuclear-generated power....

....MORE 

It doesn't look like Blue has actually built a nuke plant but they have a nice website.

And $425 million in venture cash. 

Property-Casualty Insurance: "State Farm launches all out war on California in blistering statement after bombshell wildfire exposé"

From the New York Post, May 4:

California’s largest home insurance company tore into state regulators Monday as it faces potential multi-million dollar fines and a suspension of its license.

“Wildfire survivors deserve real solutions — not a distorted picture of State Farm’s response. We strongly disagree with the Department’s characterization,” State Farm General Insurance Company said in a statement.

The lengthy, strongly worded response came within hours of the state of California issuing a damning verdict following an investigation into the company’s handling of customer claims after the 2025 wildfires.

The threat to suspend State Farm General’s ability to serve customers over primarily administrative and procedural errors is a reckless, politically motivated attack that could ultimately cripple California’s homeowners insurance market,” the insurance giant, which insures over a million in California, said.

“We reject any suggestion that State Farm engaged in a general practice of mishandling or intentionally underpaying wildfire claims, and we will respond through the process,” the statement added.

The probe, released in part on Monday, found a staggering 398 violations of state law in 114 of the 220 sample claims reviewed.

Among the key findings: claims were not investigated or resolved within required timelines, payouts were unreasonably low, and policyholders were frequently reassigned to different adjusters — creating confusion some described as “adjuster roulette.”

The insurance agency maintains the investigation does not accurately reflect the full situation.

“Using a thin sample of claims to justify sweeping allegations turns regulatory oversight into a political weapon, creating headlines instead of delivering facts and real consumer protection,” the company said.

State Farm said the review covered 220 files and that most issues were administrative or procedural — such as timing of notices, documentation, or payee details — rather than failures to pay covered claims.

It added that about $40,000 in additional payments were identified, compared with more than $5.7 billion already paid....

....MUCH MORE 

In a just world. Los Angeles Mayor Bass would be in prison on 11,000 counts of criminal negligence. 

Also at the Post:

The two possible causes for the cruise ship hantavirus outbreak — one is disgusting, the other terrifying

"NASA and JAXA data show another record-low Arctic winter sea-ice season"

Although our preferred measure of the state of the Arctic ice is volume rather than extent (because of the way ice melts: think ice cube vs. crushed ice) this is a well-written piece on the cryosphere. 

From The Watchers, May 3:

Arctic winter sea ice remained at record-low levels in March 2026, with NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reporting a statistical tie with the 2025 minimum winter maximum and Japan’s NIPR/JAXA dataset reporting a new record low. Despite differences in measurement methods, both datasets place the 2026 maximum among the lowest observed since satellite monitoring began in 1979.

NASA and NSIDC said Arctic sea ice likely reached its winter maximum on March 15, at 14.29 million km² (5.52 million mi²), close to the 2025 maximum of 14.31 million km² (5.53 million mi²). The two years are considered statistically tied in the U.S. dataset.

Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) reported a lower maximum of 13.76 million km² (5.31 million mi²) on March 13, based on finalized five-day averaged satellite data. Their dataset places 2026 slightly below 2025, marking a new record low winter extent.

The difference between the two measurements — about 0.53 million km² (204 600 mi²) — reflects differences in processing methods and averaging techniques rather than disagreement about overall conditions. Both datasets show that Arctic winter sea-ice extent remained exceptionally low during the 2026 maximum period.

NASA reported the 2026 maximum was about 1.3 million km² (501 900 mi²) below the 1981–2010 average, extending the long-term decline observed in Arctic sea ice since 1979....

 

....MUCH MORE 

 And from the Danish Meteorological Institute, volume and thickness:

 

Nota bene: thickness and volume continue building for over a month after extent peaks. 

If interested the DMI has some narrative on the various measures:

The state of the sea ice is determined by its extent, thickness and volume

Jim Cramer Says Nice Things About Quanta Services (PWR)

Truth be told, Mr. Cramer saw the portfolio potential of PWR and GEV not too long after we did.

I don't know his thinking on Prysmian (wires) or Cameco (nuke plants, uranium mining) 

From Insider Monkey, May 3:

Jim Cramer on Quanta Services: “It’s Been Worth Owning” 

Quanta Services, Inc. (NYSE:PWR) was among the stocks Jim Cramer highlighted, as he discussed the massive AI infrastructure buildout. Cramer called the company an “obvious winner when you want to build out the electric grid,” as he stated:

I’m going to go down, literally go down the S&P’s top gainers today. I’m doing a little bit of order that changes just so we can get the narrative right, but let’s see if they’re representative of anything other than the data center, even if they’re involved in it. So let’s start with Quanta Services, PWR. This stock soared nearly 16% today. That’s a big gain. It’s an installer of power lines and infrastructures of all kinds. Quanta’s been a decent company for a long time. It’s been worth owning, but it’s been roaring because it’s the obvious winner when you want to build out the electric grid.

Management explains this very clearly right at the beginning of this incredibly stunning positive conference call they had today, “Utilities are being asked to double in size. Technology customers are demanding speed at scale they haven’t dealt with before.” See, this is a whole new way our country’s doing business. A rally that includes Quanta tells you that the data centers about a lot more than just the semiconductors and disk drives. Data centers are like giant mouths that must be fed with constant activity and never-ending electricity.

We know there are many ways for the utilities to produce more energy, the most frequent being converting natural gas to a GE turbine that’s connected to the grid. Quanta builds that. They can also build the other end where the grids connect to the data center. Quanta does this with American labor....

....MORE 

The stock is up again in premarket trade, +$15.10 (+1.99%) at $772.44 following yesterday's $15.13 (+2.04%) pop (and the 16% he mentioned above, and the last two years and...)

From TradingView:

 

The verticality at the end of the timeline is nice for the P&L but probably signals our time is growing short. 

Up 71% over the last six months through May 4, up 133% over 12 months and up 673% over the last five years. “It’s Been Worth Owning”

If interested see also:

April 30 - "Quanta Services soars 10% on earnings beat and raised outlook" (PWR)

April 30 - "Quanta (PWR) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript" April 30, 2026

And some history of the infrastructure build-out over the last couple years, April 21:

 "GE Vernova and Vertiv Report Wednesday: The Real AI Data-Center Trade" (GEV; VRT)

April 9 - Quanta Services Breaks Out To A New All-Time High (PWR)

April 8 - "America’s AI Build-Out Hinges on Chinese Electrical Parts"

Also:

• February 27 - ICYMI: "Quanta Services Commits $700 Million to Bolster Transformer and Supply Chain Infrastructure" (PWR)
• March 25 - Grid: "Wait times for Hitachi Energy transformers hit more than 30 months" - UPDATED
• March 26 - More On Electrical Transformer Shortages, This One's Big: "Micron's $24 billion Singapore fab could need 500 transformers...."

Capital Markets: "US Dollar Mostly Softer, Gilts Play Catch-up, and the RBA Delivered Third Hike and Signals a Pause"

From Marc to Market: 

The US dollar is slightly lower against the G10 currencies but the Japanese yen as the North American session gets under way. Chinese and Japanese markets remain on holiday. Outside the Reserve Bank of Australia’s third rate hike of the year, the news stream is quiet. Contrary to claims otherwise, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Still oil prices are consolidating in the in the upper end of yesterday’s range. 

The US has busy session of economic data, but with Q1 GDP and the preliminary April PMI in hand, most of the reports are old news. New today is the April services ISM. Still, the recent string of data suggest the AI-related boom continues. The Fed funds futures, which have with an exception last Wednesday, have been discounting a chance of a Fed cut this year. It swung in favor of a hike yesterday and is now pricing in slightly less than a 1-in-4 chance of a rate increase. The rise in the long-end of the US curve can largely be explained by the rise in the expected year-end Fed funds rate over the last couple of weeks....

....MUCH MORE  

"OpenAI co-founder discloses nearly $30 billion stake, financial ties to Altman"

From Reuters, May 4:

• Brockman reveals $30 billion OpenAI stake and $10 million from Altman in court
• Musk alleges OpenAI abandoned nonprofit mission, seeks leadership ouster and damages
• OpenAI claims Musk motivated by control and rivalry, disputes his safety and nonprofit claims 

OpenAI's co-founder and president, Greg Brockman, on Monday disclosed deeper financial ​ties to CEO Sam Altman than previously known as well as a stake in the ChatGPT maker worth almost $30 billion.

 

The details were ‌shared in court during questioning by a lawyer for Elon Musk, who co-founded OpenAI and is now suing the company on grounds that it improperly became a for-profit company, abandoned charitable goals and should turn back into a nonprofit.

Musk's team said that Brockman's independence was potentially compromised by financial incentives that led him to support Altman, the driver behind OpenAI's reinvention as a ​for-profit company. Brockman also disclosed in court that he holds stakes in two startups backed by Altman as well as a percentage of Altman's ​family fund.

The trial, in its second week in a California courtroom, could determine the future of OpenAI, which sparked a widespread ⁠craze over generative artificial intelligence after launching its ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022. Since then, OpenAI has raised well over $100 billion from investors to hire researchers, ​buy computing power and expand the company ahead of a potential trillion-dollar IPO.

 

Musk is seeking the ouster of Altman and Brockman from leadership as well as $150 billion in ​damages.

 

Brockman early in his testimony agreed that his stake in OpenAI was worth close to $30 billion, a figure not previously known. In 2017, Altman gave Brockman a stake in Altman's family office that was worth $10 million at the time. That same year, Brockman, Musk and other OpenAI executives discussed restructuring OpenAI as a for-profit so the organization could pay for the pricey ​computing power required to train AI systems.

2017 COMPENSATION ARRANGEMENT....

....MUCH MORE 

"Thailand seizes on Hormuz fears to push land bridge dream"

From Asia Times, May 4: 

90-kilometer road, rail and pipeline corridor across kingdom’s southern isthmus promises alternative to Malacca chokepoint  

BANGKOK – While Asia suffers from Strait of Hormuz blockades, Bangkok is offering Beijing, Singapore and others a planned multi-billion dollar “land bridge” across Thailand’s thin peninsula, to link shipping between the Andaman Sea and Gulf of Thailand instead of south through the equatorial Strait of Malacca.

China, the US and other countries could use the 90-kilometer-long land bridge for commercial, military and other shipping, potentially reducing fuel costs and time on routes to and from the Persian Gulf and South China Sea.

Beijing’s use of the proposed shorter shipping route could also benefit China if the US were to blockade the Strait of Malacca during a regionwide conflict over Taiwan or other issues.

Thailand’s newly reelected Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has pointed to growing uncertainty around key maritime chokepoints, including the Strait of Hormuz, as justification for moving the project forward, according to a Bangkok Post report.

“The government is also preparing a series of international roadshows to attract foreign investment,” the paper said. The entire project could cost more than US$30 billion, Thai Senator Norasate Prachyakorn told parliament on April 27.

Singapore’s Defense Minister Chan Chun Sing met Anutin on April 27 in Bangkok to discuss the land bridge and other issues.

“They recognize the project’s potential and the opportunities it could create for Thailand and the wider region if it proceeds,” said Bangkok’s government spokeswoman Rachada Dhnadirek.

The project’s supporters say the land bridge could also fit into China’s Belt and Road Initiative by linking to Thailand’s existing railway lines and highways, which are slowly being upgraded.

Some of those Thai lines feed in and out of Laos, where a Chinese-built high-speed train already zips across northern Laos, linking the tiny communist country to southern China.

To avoid depending too heavily on China, Thailand opened the land bridge project to international investors, supposedly attracting interest from India, Dubai, Japan, Europe and elsewhere, including port developers, shipping lines and real estate developers....

....MUCH MORE 

Previously: August 14, 2024 -  Will Singapore Be Bypassed? "Blocking Thailand’s solution to China’s ‘Malacca Dilemma’": 

US should help finance Thai ‘land bridge’ project to prevent it from falling under China’s control and influence 

The proposed route of Thailand's emerging land bridge project. Image: X Screengrab

August 27, 2024 - Maybe Singapore Won't Be Bypassed: "Thailand's 'land bridge' ambitions face fresh roadblocks" 

In addition to the land bridge another proposal is the cross-Thailand canal:

April 2025 - Will China Bypass Singapore And The Strait of Malacca With A Canal Across Thailand Into The Indian Ocean?

....You can see how this project ties in with China's naval base across the Gulf of Thailand on Cambodia's west coast at Ream:

 

 From April 22's "RAND: "The Gulf of Thailand May Be the Next U.S.-China Flashpoint": 

In fact the Kra canal project would allow China's navy a much more direct route to their only other overseas base on the route into the Suez Canal.

February 2024 -  "Red Sea Rivalries"

The most amazing thing that has been pointed out over the last couple months is that China's base on Djibouti's Gulf of Aden coast, at the approaches to the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint into the Red Sea, gives them the perfect location to monitor Houthi action and American reaction:

—China Officially Sets Up Its First Overseas Base in Djibouti, The Diplomat

Iran's President "Pezeshkian brands IRGC escalation ‘madness’ as tensions rise in Tehran"

From Iran International, May 4:

Exclusive information obtained by Iran International points to a growing clash between Iran’s moderate president Masoud Pezeshkian and the country’s military leadership over Monday’s escalation in the Persian Gulf and attacks on the United Arab Emirates.

According to sources familiar with Tehran’s deliberations, Pezeshkian has expressed strong anger at actions by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, led by Ahmad Vahidi, describing missile and drone strikes on the UAE as “completely irresponsible” and carried out without the government’s knowledge or coordination.

Pezeshkian is said to have described the IRGC’s approach to escalating tensions with regional countries as “madness,” warning of potentially irreversible consequences....

....MUCH MORE 

"Xanadu Quantum (XNDU) Shares Plunge Over 50% Following Massive Registration Filing"

Not our type of deal but an object lesson in understanding the ownership structure.

From Blockonomi, May 4: 

• Shares of XNDU plummeted 55% on Monday following a registration filing for 293.6 million Class B shares available for resale.
• Over 254 million shares stem from Class A Multiple Voting Share conversions tied to the Crane Harbor SPAC merger.
• The company won’t benefit financially from these resales, aside from potential proceeds if cash warrants are exercised.
• Additional shares include 27.5 million from private placement rounds and 7.33 million Founder Shares held by Crane Harbor Sponsor LLC.
• Trading closed at $29.10 on Nasdaq and C$39.45 on the TSX on April 30, 2026. 

Xanadu Quantum Technologies (XNDU) experienced a dramatic 55% decline Monday morning following the submission of a prospectus seeking to register nearly 293.6 million Class B Subordinate Voting Shares for resale by current stakeholders....

....MUCH MORE 

If interested see one of our very few posts on Xanadu, April 27:

"Quantum photonics roadmap — how Xanadu and PsiQuantum are looking to transfer qubits through beams of light"

The only other mention is from 2021: "Betting on Quantum Computing" but all it got was a tine on a table.

Otherwise it's just Coleridge on his hookah:

In Xanadu did Kubla Khan

A stately pleasure-dome decree:

Where Alph, the sacred river, ran

Through caverns measureless to man

   Down to a sunless sea....

Following April 30's Earnings Surprise, First Solar's Earning's Call Transcript (FSLR)

On Friday May 1 the stock closed up $9.82 (+4.86%) at $211.71 and is trading up another $2.79 in today's late pre-market action.

From Motley Fool Transcribing, April 30:  

Date

Thursday, April 30, 2026 at 4:30 p.m. ET

Call participants

• Chief Executive Officer — Mark R. Widmar
• Chief Financial Officer — Alexander R. Bradley

Takeaways

• Net sales -- $1.0 billion, a record for the first quarter, reflecting 24% growth driven by a 31% increase in module volume, partially offset by a lower average selling price from higher India deliveries.
• Gross margin -- 47%, expanding six percentage points over 2025, due to higher qualifying Section 45X volumes and reduced freight costs.
• Module production -- 4.3 GW total, comprising approximately three GW from U.S. facilities and one GW from international plants, with U.S. facility utilization at about 96%.
• Adjusted EBITDA -- $520 million, above the upper end of preview guidance, with a 50% adjusted EBITDA margin.
• Net income and EPS -- $347 million in net income and diluted EPS of $3.22, representing a 65% increase.
• Backlog -- 47.9 GW contracted at a $14.4 billion aggregate transaction price (excluding technology adjusters), with deliveries scheduled through 2030.
• Bookings -- Gross bookings of one point seven GW during the quarter (0.9 GW U.S. at $0.34/watt average; 0.8 GW India at $0.20/watt average); gross bookings of one point nine GW since the last call, including 1.4 GW U.S. utility-scale at $0.35/watt average (some at $0.36–$0.37/watt).
• CURE technology launch -- Successfully completed at Perrysburg with the first Series 6 ramping as anticipated, enabling up to $600 million potential additional revenue (majority anticipated for 2027 and 2028) via technology adjusters as rollout continues.
• Operating expenses -- $141 million, including $67 million R&D, up $15 million, reflecting perovskite and CURE initiatives.
• Operating cash flow -- $215 million outflow, significantly down from $608 million prior year due to improved working capital dynamics.
• Cash and equivalents -- $2.4 billion total, with $2.0 billion net cash, at the high end of the internal target range.
• Manufacturing outlook -- South Carolina finishing facility remains on track for a 2026 production start; equipment installation underway this quarter and intent to optimize for U.S. content and Section 45X credits.
• International operations -- Malaysia and Vietnam plants operating at reduced utilization due to trade dynamics and lower ASP expectations; sequentially increased underutilization charges expected for fiscal Q2 ending June 30, 2026.
• Full-year guidance -- No change in full-year 2026 outlook; fiscal Q2 guidance of 3.4–four GW volumes sold and $400 million–$500 million adjusted EBITDA.

Risks

• Bradley stated, "we ran Malaysia and Vietnam at higher utilization rates in the first quarter than we anticipate running in [the] second quarter," indicating increased underutilization charges and "a little bit of headwind in the second quarter because of lower utilization."
• Continued booking selectivity in the U.S. market driven by the need to "await clarity from current policy and regulatory matters," especially the outcome of the Section 232 tariff and proposed FEOP rulemaking, which could delay incremental contract wins.

First Solar (FSLR +5.03%) reported record first-quarter sales and margin expansion despite international headwinds, with U.S. manufacturing achieving near full utilization and India volumes contributing significant backlog at lower average price points. The CURE technology launch was completed at the Perrysburg facility, positioning First Solar for continued operational differentiation and potential future revenue gains tied to technology adjusters as fleet-wide deployment progresses. Management reaffirmed unchanged full-year guidance and indicated continued discipline in U.S. bookings ahead of key trade and policy decisions, maintaining a strong balance sheet and strategic emphasis on U.S. and India supply chain independence. 

• Management described U.S. backlog through 2028 as "substantially committed," providing pricing clarity amid booking selectivity.
• Widmar stated that the Section 337 IP investigation, targeting the U.S. TOPCon import market, was instituted by the U.S. ITC in March with determinations expected in 11 to 15 months.
• Bradley noted a sequential $22 million reduction in warehouse costs from fiscal Q4 2025, supported by ongoing rationalization initiatives targeting $100 million by 2027.
• India accounted for approximately one GW sold at $0.20/watt in the quarter, with management indicating the domestic market offers the "highest gross margin" within the company's portfolio (including 45X benefits).
• The South Carolina finishing facility is expected to process Series 6 modules from international plants and leverage Section 45X for tax credits, with operational start scheduled for 2026.
• Next-generation perovskite technology pilot line is slated for a 2027 launch in Perrysburg, with First Solar planning to validate field performance and durability before broader scale or tandem constructs.
• Policy outcomes for Section 232 tariffs remain a deciding factor for future Southeast Asian facility utilization, with potential outcomes ranging from full capacity operation to possible shutdown of international module manufacturing.
• Widmar said, "If Tesla chooses to use a TOPCon product that uses our IP, then we will enter into a commercial conversation with them and happily engage on licensing that IP," clarifying the company's patent strategy on TOPCon.

Industry glossary

• CdTe (Cadmium Telluride): A thin-film photovoltaic technology utilized by First Solar for high-temperature and humidity solar power generation.
• CURE: First Solar's next-generation module technology, designed to improve lifetime energy yield through enhanced bifaciality and durability profiles.
• TOPCon: Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact; advanced crystalline silicon solar cell architecture referenced in relation to patent enforcement and competitive module imports.
• Section 45X: U.S. federal tax credit for domestic manufacture of eligible solar and clean energy components, including solar modules.
• ALMM: Approved List of Models and Manufacturers; an India policy mandating listed models and manufacturers for project eligibility and expected to be expanded with additional domestic content criteria.
• Section 232: U.S. trade regulation enabling tariffs on imports (notably steel and aluminum) where national security is a concern, significantly impacting international solar module trade and manufacturing strategy.
• FEOP: Foreign Entity of Concern Proposed Rulemaking; a proposed U.S. regulation affecting solar supply chain sourcing and project eligibility for incentives.
• Underutilization charges: Costs recorded due to unused manufacturing capacity when facilities operate below optimal throughput.
• Book-and-bill market: Sales model where production is contracted and recognized as revenue as goods are produced and delivered within the same reporting period, prevalent in India for First Solar.

Full Conference Call Transcript...

....MUCH MORE 

Capital Markets: "US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk: Oil Pulls Rates Higher"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

The US dollar recovered in late turnover ahead of the weekend and has extended its recovery today in holiday-thin trading. Japan, China, and UK markets are closed. The ceasefire in the US-Iran war looks fragile as Washington says it will begin escorting ships out of the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran threatens to attack the ships. June WTI is trading above the pre-weekend high and 10-year benchmark yields are jumping. 

Washington announced two measures at the end of last week. It first announced tariffs on European vehicles would be raised to 25% from 15% and that at least 5k troops would be removed from Germany. The tariff increase was said to be in response to Europe’s failure to implement the trade agreement that requires it to purchase $750 bln of US energy. US troops in Germany were never sufficient to defend it against a Russian invasion but served as a tripwire that would trigger US military might. The removal of 5k troops unwinds the increase after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Yet, the context in which it was done gives the appearance of punishment for Chancellor Merz’s criticism of US war on Iran....

....MUCH MORE  

"How China’s Fear of Secondary Sanctions Pushed Moscow into Leveraging Stablecoins to Reshape Financial Warfare"

From Small Wars Journal, May 1:

On March 10, 2026, Central Bank of Russia’s Governor Elvira Nabiullina announced that the digital ruble was on-track to launch in September 2026. Since initial pilot testing in mid-2023, Russia’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) has often been thought of as a potential tool to counter Western sanctions, with this being even more important due to increased sanctions resulting from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Despite these initial assumptions from both policymakers and analysts, these developments within Russia’s digital asset ecosystem suggest a different reality, especially due to the potential of secondary sanctions issued by the U.S. against China, which is Russia’s largest trading partner and ostensible economic lifeline. Privately-issued stablecoins like the A7A5 stablecoin have emerged as the more immediate tool for enabling Russian cross-border transactions and sanctions evasion. 

This utilization of stablecoins demonstrates how financial infrastructure has become a critically contested domain within irregular warfare’s purview. The growing use of stablecoins by sanctioned actors reflects a broader transition to decentralized financial networks, with this enabling military operations and gray-zone activities while circumventing traditional instruments of economic pressure like sanctions.  

Stablecoins 
When discussing the use of cryptocurrencies in strategic competition, one must first understand the difference between the term “cryptocurrencies” in eponymous culture and stablecoins.

Technically, stablecoins are a digital asset that falls under the category of being a cryptocurrency. However, in popular culture, cryptocurrencies and stablecoins are often seen as fundamentally independent entities. When referring to cryptocurrencies, most individuals are often referring to digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, with these very volatile assets serving as a decentralized store of value. In contrast, stablecoins are price-stable digital assets that have a one-to-one peg to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar, Euro, or yen. Stablecoins are also typically issued by private, non-state entities. 

In contrast to both cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, CBDCs are state-issued digital currencies that are managed directly by their associated nations’ central banks/monetary authorities, with two examples being the digital euro and the digital yuan (e-CNY). Due to their entire lifecycle being directly managed by the country’s main financial authority, CBDCs are often thought of as a tool of government surveillance and control. 

With these definitions in mind, stablecoins, not CBDCs, have increasingly emerged as a practical tool for conducting cross-border transitions in sanctions-constrained environments. In this context, these financial instruments can help threat actors evade detection and support sustained operations even under sanctions pressure. 

Sanctions evasion via the A7A5 stablecoin 
Sanctions evasion has been a core tenet of the Russian payments industry, with the U.S. sanctioning 13 firms in early 2024 for enabling digital payments for the purposes of “enabling potential sanctions evasion,” with some of these actors specifically leveraging blockchain-based payments or virtual currencies to do so.

The A7A5 stablecoin, which is issued on both the Ethereum and TRON blockchains, was ostensibly created to enable further sanctions evasion. Launched in January 2025 in Kyrgyzstan by A7 LLC, the A7A5 stablecoin made history by being the first stablecoin pegged to the Russian ruble. Since that time, A7A5 has processed over $72b in volume.

A7 LLC itself is majority owned by Ilan Shor, a Moldovan political figure and oligarch who was previously sentenced for stealing $1b from Moldova’s banking system in a money laundering scheme in 2014. Shor was sanctioned by the U.S. in late 2022 and described as an “instrument of Russia’s global influence campaign.” A7’s minority owner is Promsvyazbank (PSB), a Russian state-owned enterprise (SOE) bank that was itself sanctioned in early 2022 for its role in acting as the key lender for Russia’s defense industry....

....MUCH MORE 

"Junior Bankers Sick of Grunt Work Build $2 Billion AI Tool to Do the Job"

Opportunity is everywhere. 

From Bloomberg, April 29:

Rogo, started by young bankers around a kitchen table in 2021, just won a multibillion-dollar valuation 

In a cramped Manhattan apartment in late 2021, three young investment bankers often toiled into the wee morning hours, crunching away on spreadsheets and rearranging logos on slide decks, while one of their roommates was taking a risk.

Gabriel Stengel had just quit his job at Lazard Inc. to team up with fellow Princeton University computer science graduate John Willett, a former JPMorgan Chase & Co. banker, so the pair could work fulltime around Stengel’s kitchen table on something else: coding an artificial intelligence tool that would take over that dealmaking drudgery.

“A lot of the analytical work is done by a 21-year-old in tools from 40 years ago at 2 a.m.,” Stengel, 27, said in an interview at the Park Avenue headquarters of their venture, Rogo Technologies. Such thoughts nagged at him in his early career: “Why do I have to use Excel? Why do I have to present it in PowerPoint?”

Rogo, which they founded with computer scientist Tumas Rackaitis, 26, just notched a $2 billion valuation in a fundraising round. That’s up from $750 million three months ago. The new $160 million series D round was led by Kleiner Perkins, with additional money coming from existing backers including Sequoia Capital, Thrive Capital, Khosla Ventures and JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Growth Equity Partners, Rogo said Wednesday.

The company has more than 35,000 users and counts some of the world’s largest banks and private markets investors among its more than 250 clients, including Lazard, JPMorgan, Moelis & Co., Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co. and Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC Pte, according to people familiar with the matter. It offers them a platform designed to lighten workloads — though some in the industry worry that it may reduce the number of junior bankers, too.

Rogo’s founders left their budding banking careers at a moment of acute dissatisfaction among young Wall Streeters. When the pandemic erupted in 2020, it unleashed a torrent of dealmaking, and professionals on the lower rungs ended up working around the clock from apartments, trying to keep up with demands. In early 2021, a slide deck by junior Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bankers went viral on social media, complaining of conflicting workstreams and almost 100-hour work weeks.

Rogo’s platform can create slide decks, design complex corporate restructurings and produce research that can take an analyst dozens of hours to do manually. Its workforce is roughly evenly split between engineers and former finance professionals — called “forward deployed bankers” — who in many cases once worked for the same firms they’re now advising, helping them maximize what the tool can do. Felix, its AI agent, is inspired by Felix Rohatyn, a legendary investment banker at Lazard who helped rescue New York City from financial collapse in the 1970s.

One of Rogo’s features is the ability to toggle between underlying AI models, including Anthropic PBC’s Claude, OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Alphabet Inc.’s Gemini, so that clients don’t have to put all of their money into one of them while it’s unclear which may ultimately dominate the industry.

“For a lot of these executives, it’s such a turbulent moment — you want to pick the right horse,” Stengel said. One of his former roommates, who worked late hours in investment banking while Stengel and Willett, also 27, built Rogo, now works in private equity and uses the software in his day job.

Rogo, along with other specialized AI entrants such as Hebbia, are fueling a lot of anxiety in Wall Street’s lower rungs over the prospect that machines will displace trainees, then work up the ranks. While Rogo’s founders acknowledge those concerns, they predict that junior bankers will benefit by being freed from grunt work so they can try more meaningful roles earlier in their careers. Ultimately, Stengel predicts, the technology will spawn “AI-first” investment banks, where staff will focus on “more human” parts of the job, offering insights and handling relationships....

....MUCH MORE 

That Time The Habsburgs Planned To Attack China From The Philippines Before Moving West To Conquer The Ottomen Empire

Yeah, I got your puny little Strait of Hormuz geopolitics. 

From Strange Maps, October 29, 2025:

“The Chinese Job”: Spain’s wild 1580s plan to conquer the world — via Beijing
The plan — conquer China and push west to attack the Ottomans — was peak imperial hubris, as the Spanish themselves eventually realized. 

 

Circled in yellow: Spain’s European possessions (left), and the Spanish Philippines (right). The direction

 of the arrow illustrates that conquering China was only the beginning; stabbing the Ottomans in the back

 was the real endgame. (Credit: Nagihuin, CC0 1.0 – Ruland Kolen)

• La Empresa de China was an audacious 16th-century scheme to conquer Ming-dynasty China and make it part of a globe-spanning Habsburg Empire.
• The plan imagined a Spanish-Portuguese armada invading from the Philippines, seizing ports, marching on Beijing, and transforming China into a Christian, Spanish-led power stretching across Asia.

....MUCH MORE

"April Was the Worst Ever Month on Record for Crypto Hacks"

From Gizmodo, May 3:

Drift and Kelp DAO were the two most notable crypto hacks in April, combining for $579 million in losses.  

April was the worst month on record for crypto projects getting hacked, with 29 incidents tracked by crypto data provider DefiLlama. In terms of dollar value, $651 million in losses were recorded, which is the largest monthly total since March 2022 (excluding the February 2025 Bybit hack), according to crypto security firm Certik. In response to these most recent incidents, many crypto market observers are questioning whether blockchain infrastructure can be relied upon by traditional financial institutions. Additionally, the centrally-planned responses to many of these hacks have also exposed the decentralization theater that is prevalent throughout the industry.

Drift and Kelp DAO were the two most notable crypto hacks in April, combining for $579 million in losses. The situation with Drift also points to a persistent problem in the crypto industry of thefts originating from North Korea. According to the Drift team, the hack of their protocol involved a six-month social engineering operation that eventually led to North Korean agents gaining access to critical infrastructure that allowed a sophisticated manipulation of the protocol in order to extract hundreds of millions of dollars worth of crypto. Blockchain analytics firm TRM Labs also recently put out a report pointing out that 76% of all crypto value extracted from hacks this year is connected to North Korea (solely from the Drift and Kelp DAO incidents), with the regime taking in more than $6 billion from their crypto hacking operations over the years....

....MUCH MORE