"How the Son of Iran’s Supreme Leader Built a Global Property Empire"

Well, because of his extreme impotence he didn't have to deal with the cost of raising kids until later in life.

Also: Thanks dad.

From Bloomberg, January 28/updated March 8:

Mojtaba Khamenei has amassed sprawling international investments, while economic hardship at home has sparked Iran's deadliest protests in decades. 

On a tree-lined street in north London, known as “Billionaire’s Row,” a clutch of mostly empty mansions sit behind tall hedges and blacked-out gates. As school children wander by, private guards in dark SUVs patrol outside.

Behind the facades of these luxury homes on The Bishops Avenue lies a network stretching from Tehran to Dubai and Frankfurt. The ultimate ownership traces back, through layers of shell companies, to one of the most powerful men in the Middle East: Mojtaba Khamenei, the second-eldest son of Iran’s Supreme Leader.

The 56-year-old cleric, touted as a potential successor to his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, oversees a sprawling investment empire, according to people familiar with the matter and the assessment of a leading Western intelligence agency. The people said that while the younger Khamenei refrains from putting assets in his own name, he has been directly involved in the deals, some of which stretch back at least as far as 2011.

His financial power has embraced everything from Persian Gulf shipping to Swiss bank accounts and British luxury property worth in excess of £100 million ($138 million), say the people, who requested anonymity for fear of retribution or because they’re not authorized to speak publicly. Together, the web of firms has helped Khamenei to channel funds — by some estimates in the billions of dollars — into Western markets, despite US sanctions imposed on him in 2019.

That includes prime real estate — one house cost £33.7 million when it was bought in 2014 — in several of London’s most exclusive neighborhoods, a villa in an area dubbed the “Beverly Hills of Dubai” and upscale European hotels from Frankfurt to Mallorca. Funds for the transactions have been routed through accounts at banks in the UK, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and the United Arab Emirates, according to documents seen by Bloomberg and people familiar with the matter. The funds originate primarily from Iranian oil sales, the people said.

None of the documents seen by Bloomberg list assets directly in Khamenei's name. Instead, many of the purchases appear in the name of an Iranian businessman, Ali Ansari, sanctioned by the UK in October.

Iran’s state media depicts the Supreme Leader and his family — part of a revolutionary movement that toppled a monarch in 1979 in the name of the poor and Islam — as living an austere and pious life. There’s little indication the family has used the foreign assets to fund lavish lifestyles. Still, the hidden fortune of the younger Khamenei conflicts with that image of piety promoted by the regime, especially in the wake of rising poverty and widespread unrest and protests against the Islamic Republic that have helped rally support for the ousted monarchy and seen thousands killed in Iran since the start of the year.

Read More: What Happens Next in Iran: Strongman, Coup, Collapse?

Anger directed at high levels of economic corruption and mismanagement in the regime often target the aghazadeh, a pejorative used to describe children of the elite accused of amassing great wealth thanks to the political connections of their relatives.

A year-long Bloomberg News investigation reveals how the family’s financial reach has expanded beyond the borders of the Islamic Republic. This story is based on interviews with people who have direct knowledge of Mojtaba Khamenei’s financial dealings as well as a review of real estate records and confidential business documents — ranging from hotel management agreements to corporate ownership details and bank transfers. Ansari, in particular, has been vital to the deals, according to the Western intelligence assessment.

Widely regarded as a powerful behind-the-scenes figure in Iran’s political system, with close ties to the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mojtaba Khamenei has largely avoided the public spotlight, even as his influence has grown and debate has intensified over who will replace his 86-year-old father as Iran’s next absolute leader.

Questions around succession come at a time when Tehran appears strategically weaker than at almost any time since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei assumed the top post in 1989, the consequence of its sanctions-hit economy, last year’s Israeli and US military strikes and the erosion of its regional proxies in the wake of the Gaza conflict.

Read More: After Brutal Crushing of Protests, Iranians Stare Into Abyss

The story of the Khamenei overseas investment portfolio illustrates how Iran’s elite managed to move capital abroad despite the country being subject to one of history's toughest sanctions regimes for the last two decades over its nuclear program and support for armed groups that oppose Israel and Western policy in the Middle East. Those economic pressures have tightened since Donald Trump returned to office in 2025. But weaknesses in the global financial system, from lax beneficial ownership registries to limited sanctions enforcement, can allow clandestine networks to thrive, according to illicit finance experts. The US President added to the pressure on Iran on Wednesday threatening military strikes over its nuclear program.

“Mojtaba has major stakes or de facto control in various entities throughout Iran and abroad,” says Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who has studied the Khamenei family’s financial empire. “When you analyze his financial network, Ali Ansari is the main account holder for him. This positions Ansari as one of the most influential oligarchs in the country today.”

In a statement through his lawyer, Ansari said he “strongly denies that he has ever had any financial or personal relationship with Mojtaba Khamenei” and noted his intention to challenge the UK sanctions imposed on him. Khamenei didn't respond to requests for comment sent on Jan. 12 via the Iranian foreign ministry and the nation's embassies in the UAE and UK.....

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"China’s AI Nightmare Is an Out-of-Control Welfare State"

From Bloomberg, March 5:

As artificial intelligence threatens jobs and deflation strains growth, Xi Jinping may finally be forced to expand the nation’s social safety net. 

Xi Jinping has long resisted putting cash directly into the hands of Chinese households. When world leaders raced to unleash stimulus to help citizens cope with the Covid-19 pandemic, Beijing recoiled.

It wasn’t just that China was still saddled with debt from the 2008 global financial crisis, when it poured money into infrastructure and upgrading factories. The Chinese leader feared that direct cash handouts would set a precedent that could ultimately backfire on the Communist Party — and himself.

Addressing China’s top economic policy makers in December 2021, Xi railed against countries that “embraced populism and pampered a large number of lazy people who were given something for nothing.” “Welfarism beyond the means of the state is unsustainable and will inevitably have severe economic and political consequences,” he said.

More than four years later, the world is again on edge — rattled by war in the Middle East and AI doomsday scenarios threatening further economic upheaval. Citrini Research spooked global investors with a speculative report last month that suggested advances in AI could trigger mass white-collar layoffs, a collapse in stock prices and unemployment above 10% in the US.

Even as economists and investors question such dire predictions, a consensus is emerging: AI will likely force governments worldwide to expand social safety nets, possibly with a universal basic income. Such a shift would pose a unique challenge to the Communist Party of China, which — somewhat ironically — now leads one of the most conservative governments in the world when it comes to direct handouts.

In the wake of the pandemic, China’s fiscal response amounted to 4.8% of gross domestic product, well below the 25.5% in the US and among the lower end of Group of 20 nations. More broadly, China’s spending on social services as a percentage of GDP is roughly half the average of OECD countries. While the sheer number of people supported is vast, rural pensions amount to a dollar or two per day. Healthcare only covers the basics, forcing families to stash away funds for medical emergencies. Direct cash assistance is typically reserved for the poorest of the poor: A research paper published last year showed that just 40 million people received such assistance in 2022, roughly 3% of China’s population.

The resistance to expanding welfare spending stems from the Communist Party’s obsession with control, exacerbated by an aging population and a distressed economic model. Although Xi runs the world’s second-biggest economy with an iron fist — swiftly neutralizing potential rivals — the need to keep 1.4 billion people happy also exposes the limits of his power. Xi is wary of any policy that might jeopardize social stability, such as raising taxes or making long-term welfare promises he can’t fulfill.

Over the past five years, as the property market has slumped and the economy has become more reliant on exports, Beijing has brushed off calls from the International Monetary Fund and private-sector economists for bold measures to stimulate consumer spending. Instead, Xi has kept the focus on export-led manufacturing and technological self-reliance, prioritizing the AI race with the US. That model has contributed to deflationary pressure just as a property collapse strains the nation’s finances, forcing Xi to look for new revenue streams.

He has no obvious place to turn without incurring some political cost. To date, Xi has preferred a slow and steady approach to economic policy to maintain stability, avoiding major fiscal stimulus and welfare pledges. Yet if the AI transition accelerates and triggers mass layoffs, he may be forced to act faster to stave off social unrest.

In many ways, China is well placed to benefit from AI, even though it still lags behind the US in making advanced chips. In his annual budget address on Thursday, Premier Li Qiang said the government would advance its “AI Plus Initiative” to “encourage large-scale commercial application of AI” including “faster application of new generation intelligent terminals and AI agents.”

The Asian country already generates nearly twice as much electricity as the US, helping power the data centers needed to train AI models. Its private-sector companies are among the best in the world at putting the technology to practical use. China’s manufacturers are well ahead in building AI-assisted autonomous vehicles, drones and humanoid robots, which can help ease China’s demographic crisis as the labor pool shrinks. In addition to churning out cheap goods in factories, humanoid robots could take care of the elderly, deliver food and pick up the trash.

But even if robot workers help sustain China’s productivity, they don’t pay taxes, buy property, go on holiday or eat at restaurants. As such, they can’t help China pivot to a consumption-led economy and ease the supply-demand imbalances that are causing angst around the globe.

China’s manufacturing sector is by far the biggest in the world, producing about a third of all global goods — more than the US, Germany, Japan and South Korea combined. Yet the sector’s profit margins hovered around 4.5% last year, less than half the levels seen in the US. The deluge of goods is pulling prices and wages downward, fueling a deflationary spiral that is starting to hit the nation’s finances. For the past three years, real GDP growth has outpaced the economy’s nominal expansion, which is crucial for tax revenues. Li kept China’s fiscal deficit at around 4% — the same as last year, when it hit a three-decade high.

To reverse course, the IMF and others have urged authorities to ramp up spending on healthcare and education, reduce industrial subsidies, expand benefits for migrant workers, allow more bankruptcies and implement broad-based stimulus, including direct cash transfers. China has started to do some of this, with social spending rising last year at the fastest rate in nearly a decade. Yet for the most part, measures have been piecemeal, doing little to alter the overall picture. One analyst called Li’s speech on Thursday a “non-event for investors.”

Officials in Beijing are aware of the need to shift to consumption, yet note the political and practical obstacles. Quickly easing restrictions on foreign companies and China’s formidable private firms in the healthcare sector, for instance, risks triggering discontent by allowing the wealthy to buy better treatment. Letting a bunch of businesses go bankrupt could trigger mass layoffs. And giving benefits to migrant workers in major cities would further strain the finances of local governments.

Authorities prefer subsidizing goods like televisions and washing machines over direct cash handouts. While they argue that older citizens would simply save the cash, a China-based economist tells me that the Communist Party simply doesn’t want to grant individuals the autonomy to choose how they spend the money. Both explanations likely hold weight.

This reluctance has historical roots. After establishing the People’s Republic of China in October 1949, Mao Zedong faced a challenge: quickly turning an agrarian society into an industrial powerhouse.

One of his early moves was to require companies to provide social insurance. Known as the “iron rice bowl,” employees received cradle-to-the-grave benefits, including housing, education, healthcare and a pension. It also made it nearly impossible to fire anyone, which over time gave legions of workers little incentive to perform.

There was one major catch, however. Mao’s new government couldn’t afford to provide such welfare to the entire population. So the benefits were largely reserved for urban workers, with some 80% of the population left to fend for themselves in rural communes. To prevent mass urban migration, he also tightened the hukou system, which ties welfare benefits to location — allowing authorities to control the movement of most people in the country.

The policy contributed to the world’s deadliest famine in the early 1960s, as rural residents were blocked from traveling to areas where food was more readily available. By Mao’s death in 1976, the “iron rice bowl” was also weighing down China’s economy. Any cash companies did earn mostly went to pay pensions and other benefits.

When Deng Xiaoping emerged as leader, he signaled his intent to start dismantling the system and initiated pro-market reforms that unleashed China’s economic miracle. But after decades of stagnation, the revival of market forces got off to a rough start. Prices surged nearly 20% in 1988 and 1989, and many urban workers on fixed wages suddenly found key staples unaffordable. Afraid of losing their cushy benefits and their jobs, civil servants and employees of state-owned enterprises joined students in the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, which ended with hundreds or even thousands dead after Deng ordered soldiers to disperse them.

In the late 1990s China dismissed tens of millions of workers from state-owned enterprises, dealing a psychological blow that has never truly healed: China’s urban population realized they could no longer rely on the state for benefits. The savings rate surged along with a sense of betrayal as people were suddenly forced to spend more of their own money on things like health and education....

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"Energy and metals have been hot but a rally for agriculture commodities may now be getting under way, says technical analyst"

From MarketWatch, March 6: 

Fundstrat’s Mark Newton is betting on corn, wheat and soybeans moving higher in 2026 

Grains are ready to break out and continue a commodities rally that has been driven by energy and metals, according to a technical strategist.

“Technically, agriculture’s rally looks to be kicking into gear within the commodity complex at a time when the U.S. equity rally has begun to wobble in recent weeks,” said Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat.

Newton said while he expects crude oil to stall out and possibly reverse in weeks to come, some commodities should still work well in the coming months. “It’s my technical view that ‘softs’ should be the next area to rise to show mean reversion to recent strength within the metals and energy complex,” he said.

He has been of the view that soybeans, corn and wheat should be turning higher due to the prevailing six-year cycle in grains.

Newton has been tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which has a 34% energy weighting and 27% in agriculture, commenting that most popular indexes and ETFs are heavily weighted to energy. The Bloomberg index has just risen above last month’s peaks to the highest levels since 2022, and he believes it could test former all-time highs this year.

The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund DBA +1.11% tracks an index of 10 agricultural commodity futures contracts, he said. The DBA is up an annualized 13% over three years, 4% over 10 years, and more than 3% over a year, according to FactSet. 

 

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We don't have any interest in the funds or the Exchange Traded Notes, preferring the futures, but DBA is a handy overview of the action.

"Spike in oil prices triggers talk of an economic doomsday scenario"

In other news, "Meghan Markle Shares New Photo of Daughter Lilibet, Taken by ‘Papa Sussex,’ to Celebrate International Women’s Day."

From MarketWatch, March 7: 

President Trump calling for an ‘unconditional surrender’ by Iran didn’t help oil markets Friday

U.S. and global benchmark prices on Friday tallied their largest weekly gains on record. Another week like that would lift prices very close to their all-time highs — and invite talk of an economic doomsday.

The price of oil can have far-reaching effects on the global economy — from gasoline, jet fuel, utility and manufacturing costs, to inflation, consumer spending and employment.

Higher prices can increase inflation, negatively impact consumers’ purchasing power and slow economic growth, said Katy Kaminski, chief research strategist and portfolio manager at investment adviser AlphaSimplex. Higher inflation can, in turn, complicate monetary policy, she noted, which can then directly influence things like economic growth and employment....

 

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"Capital Markets Remain Unsettled with Oil Above $100"

From Marc to Market: 

The Middle East war continues to dominate the investment environment. The dollar is firm. Equities are lower. Yields are higher. The disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz is forcing oil producers to shut down output due to limited storage capacity. Sulfur and urea supplies are also being disrupted, as is natural gas and this is having a knock-on effect on agriculture prices.

Reports suggest the G7 may seek to coordinate a release of strategic reserves, but that is seen as only a temporary reprieve and no substitute for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. The risk-off mood prevails. Stagflation is the main economic scenario being discussed. Heightened volatility across the capital markets also serves to reduce liquidity....

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And Now For Something Completely Different: "TSMC to hire 8,000 workers in 2026"

From The Taipei Times, March 9: 

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) said yesterday the company aims to hire 8,000 more employees this year to meet its expansion needs, and plans to pay an average annual salary of NT$2.2 million (US$69,449) to new engineers holding a master’s degree.

The world’s largest contract chipmaker said it has launched a recruitment campaign in Taiwan, including a job fair held at National Taiwan University (NTU) yesterday.

TSMC said the new hires, including engineers and technical staff, will be stationed in its plants in Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Miaoli, Taichung, Chiayi, Tainan and Kaohsiung.

The chipmaker said it needs professionals in a wide range of areas, such as electrical engineering, electronics, optoelectronics, physics, materials, chemical engineering, mechanical engineering, environmental engineering, industrial engineering, engineering management, business management, human resources, and accounting....

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"Crop Prices Jump as War Snarls Trade and Risks Tightening Supply"

We will see a double whammy in the ag sector. Fertilizer prices, including ammonia which is made from natural gas, are rising fast. Additionally, with the Northern Hemisphere planting season approaching, the cost of diesel fuel for the tractors and later this year for combines and other harvesting implements will of necessity pass through, eventually, to the end user.

From Bloomberg, March 8: 

Palm oil surged as much as 10%, soybean oil jumped and wheat neared a two-year peak, as the war in the Middle East drove energy and fertilizer costs higher and threatened to tighten supplies across agricultural markets.

Disruptions to crude oil supplies wrought by the conflict are boosting the appeal of crop-based biofuels, lifting demand for vegetable oils and corn. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a major conduit for the fertilizer trade — has also led to a spike in the price of crop nutrients as farmers rush to secure supply. In addition, wartime food security concerns could spark some countries to stock up on staples like wheat.

Palm oil jumped the most since 2022, when top grower Indonesia halted exports. Chicago futures of soybean oil, palm’s closest substitute, rose as much as 5%, up for an 11th day and headed for the longest run of gains since 2008.

Wheat futures rallied more than 3%, after jumping the most since 2024 on Friday, while corn climbed over 2% and soybeans also rose.

“Grain and oilseed markets are following energy in early Monday trading,” said Joe Davis, director at Futures International, a brokerage. “The macro and energy markets will continue to lead ag commodities on any escalation of the war on Iran.”

Vegetable oils and meal in China also surged on Monday. The most actively traded soybean meal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rallied as much as 6% to 3,066 yuan per ton while palm also rose to hit a daily limit. Rapeseed oil and meal did the same in Zhengzhou.

Spiking crude prices have stoked fears of faster inflation globally, rattling broader markets.

“The US consumer could see this immediately on prices at the pump, then in food inflation if shipping and fertilizer prices remain firm,” Davis said. “Although most farmers are locked in on price, or have purchased input needs for 2026, next year may be where farmers feel the pain if the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t re-open soon.”....

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Recently:

March 4 - Inflation: "How disruption in the Strait of Hormuz threatens fertilizer supply and global food prices" 

March 5 - "Iran Conflict Sends Farmers Rushing to Secure Critical Fertilizers"

March 2 - Fuel: More On Saudi Arabia's Giant Ras Tanura Refinery

March 5 - Diesel Prices Are Rising Fast

If interested see also:

May 2022 (Russian invasion) -  Diesel equals Soybeans; Soybeans equal Diesel (in more ways than one)

....Way back in April 2008, the U.S. was still in Afghanistan and Iraq, Gaddafi in Libya and Morsi in Egypt had not yet been overthrown, the Maidan coup in Ukraine was six years in the future and the Russian invasion was fourteen years ahead, the price of oil was going parabolic on the charts, on its way to the record futures print, $147+, and I was thinking about substitution and pseudo-fungibility:

What Proportion of Food Price Increases is Attributable to Ethanol?

If I recall correctly it takes about five gallons of fuel to plant and harvest an acre of corn (I just spent 60 seconds trying to remember if that was conservation tillage or traditional. Then I realized that farm management was not the focus of this post, I'll go with 5 gal./acre), so the argument that rising input prices is a factor has merit....

Some things never change. But they should

Related, noted in a 2015 post:

Remember, the rule of thumb is it takes around 10 crude oil calories to produce 1 row crop (mainly corn and soybeans) calorie.
Most other food prices are similarly dependent on their input costs.
One oft-cited bit of nuttines is the fact it takes 127 calories of aviation fuel to get a head of lettuce from California to London.... 

March 2021 -  Vaclav Smil: "How Much Energy Does It Take to Grow a Tomato?"

Re-upping: "JPMorgan On Oil Volumes Removed From The Market Due To Strait Of Hormuz Closure"

Originally posted March 5.

From Reuters via AOL, March 3/4: 

Hormuz shutdown could force Iraq, Kuwait to curb oil output within days, JP Morgan says

Crude oil supplies from Iraq and Kuwait could start shutting in within days if the ‌Strait of Hormuz remains closed, potentially cutting 3.3 ‌million barrels per day (bpd) by day eight of the Middle East conflict, J.P. ​Morgan analysts said in a note.

Iraq and Kuwait have roughly three and 14 days, respectively, before they would be forced to halt crude exports that pass through the strait, the bank ‌said on Tuesday.

The ⁠Strait of Hormuz, a narrow, strategically vital waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of ⁠Oman, is one of the world's key oil transit chokepoints, carrying roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas ​flows.

In a ​prolonged closure, losses could escalate ​to 3.8 million bpd ‌around day 15 and 4.7 million bpd by day 18, according to J.P. Morgan.

Iraq will be forced to cut its oil production by more than 3 million bpd in a few days if oil tankers cannot move freely through the ‌Strait of Hormuz and reach its ​loading ports, two Iraqi oil officials ​told Reuters on Tuesday....

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Today we saw:

"Iraqi oil production collapses with Strait of Hormuz blocked by conflict, sources say"

"Japan, South Korea stocks tumble over 6% as oil tops $100 amid broader Asia market rout"

From CNBC, March 8:

South Korea’s Kospi triggered its second circuit breaker in four sessions on Monday,

Oil prices breached $100 per barrel as Middle East producers cut output.

Brent futures spiked 16.1%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up almost 17.7%.

South Korea’s Kospi triggered its second circuit breaker in four sessions on Monday, leading a broader regional sell-off as oil prices breached $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022.

The index plunged over 8%, triggering a 20 minute suspension in trading from 10.31 a.m. local time. Heavyweight Samsung Electronics plunged more than 10%, while chip counterpart SK Hynix shed 11.6%.

A circuit breaker was activated last week when the benchmark tumbled more than 12% Wednesday to record its worst single-day decline.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled 6.48%, falling below the 53,000 mark for the first time since Feb. 6, while the Topix was down 5.8%.

Softbank Group Corp was among the largest losers on the index, falling over 11%, while chip-related stocks such as Advantest and Lasertec was also down over 10% and 9%, respectively.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 4.15%.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index also fell 3%, while the CSI 300 on mainland China was down 2%....

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"Iraqi oil production collapses with Strait of Hormuz blocked by conflict, sources say"

WTI futures are at $109.40, Brent at $109.87.

 

From Reuters, March 8: 

• Iraq cuts oil output due to Middle East conflict
• Storage is full, remaining output heads to domestic refineries
• Southern exports set to halt due to lack of tankers

Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70% to just 1.3 million barrels per day as the country is unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz ​due to the Iran war, three industry sources said on Sunday.
Production from ​the fields stood at around 4.3 million bpd before the war.

"Crude storage ⁠has reached maximum capacity and the remaining output after the major cut will ​be used to supply the country's refineries," said an official with the state-run Basra ​Oil Company (BOC), which manages production and export operations from the southern fields....

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Laundering Money Using Luxury Watches Seems Quite Popular (plus the New York - Florida nexus)

From Watches of Espionage (former CIA Case Officer/amateur horologist): 

Watches as Tools of Money Laundering and Illicit Finance

Luxury timepieces are one of the most effective mediums to move illicit funds around the globe and a tool to integrate those ill-gotten gains into the financial system.  Transnational criminal networks, terrorists, narcotraffickers and corrupt politicians have used watches to launder money as a part of global illicit finance.

The Weight of a Million Dollars – 22 pounds

A million dollars weighs just over 22 lbs.  I learned this during one of my first tours as a CIA Case Officer.  Like any other morning, I mounted my Gary Fisher mountain bike and rode out the gate of our compound for a quick exercise ride in the hills surrounding the African capital where I was working.  This activity was “in pattern,” should I have surveillance, they would note the departure, but it would not warrant further investigation.  A trained eye might have seen that something was different, however. The dead weight of ten thousand $100 bills in my backpack made the bike top-heavy and awkward to ride. 

The operation was simple and routine. After a long Surveillance Detection Route (SDR) through the hills and side streets of the third world capital, I worked my way to a predetermined ops site.  The watch on my wrist would have (probably) been a Timex Ironman, my go to Digital Tool Watch (DTW) for exercise over the past two decades.  I would have checked the time before moving into the site, confirming that I would hit the operational window.  In espionage, timing is everything.

Right on time. I identified a couple in the alley.  We established bona fides with a verbal parole -- a predetermined phrase and response.  I then handed them the heavy backpack in exchange for a similar one and rode off in the other direction, the entire exchange lasting less than a minute. In tradecraft lingo it was a “BE” (Brief Encounter). 

 

A standard CIA Case Officers EDC, read more HERE  

Except for the backpack stuffed with cash, it was a routine day for a case officer. Certainly not the stuff of Hollywood but instead a crucial operation for the global network of intelligence collection. Due to compartmentalization, I didn’t know who the individuals were that I handed the backpack to or why they needed the large sum of cash, though I have my suspicions.  They had likely just arrived in the country and could not bring the cash in through customs without drawing scrutiny.

Watches as a Currency:

One takeaway from this operation is that money is heavy.  It’s inconvenient, bulky and difficult to transport, not to mention having to explain it away if discovered.  This is why many illicit actors, spies and criminal networks rely on expensive but innocuous luxury items to move funds across borders.  Given the significant increase in value of timepieces, watches are a favored currency when it comes to illicit activity.  I easily could have handed off a single watch to transfer that same value to the couple that morning.

The value-to-weight ratio of a Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet or other premium brands is exceeded only by precious gems, making it easy to physically transport a watch across international borders. The vast, unregulated, and fragmented gray market makes converting timepieces into cash relatively easy. Unlike vehicles, gold, and diamonds, there is no oversight or registration for timepieces and a million dollar Patek can be worn on your wrist, easily breezing through customs.

Luxury Watches – Money Laundering:

The international financial system is heavily regulated and monitored by law enforcement and intelligence services to identify illicit activity. Transactions over $10,000 are automatically flagged and international border law restricts the amount of cash one can bring in/out of a given country undeclared. 

By contrast, watches are a perfect medium for exploitation by bad actors.  They are innocuous and liquid, and pawn shops, auction houses and high-end dealers often turn a blind eye to these activities. Every major auction house has been involved in a controversy where profitability triumphed over ethics at some point. This isn’t to say that they’re willfully supporting money laundering, rather that it is simply a frequent occurrence....

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Also at WoE:  

Iran Under Fire: The Watches of Operation Epic Fury 

My interest was piqued by a friend who mentioned that gold in Dubai was selling at a discount because the traders couldn't get it to their buyers with most air and sea routes closed. This brought to mind the old-time smugglers who used jewels, particularly diamonds, as their preferred high value/low volume object of affection. Some aristos fleeing to friendlier climes used rare stamps or collectable coins to embody their wealth. But it was Dubai that led to Watches of Espionage.

There are a lot of watches for sale in the Emirates and Dubai is at the center of the action. 

Legitimate or mostly legitimate Swiss creations get to Dubai and are transformed into semi-legitimate of illegitimate objects of desire when they are bought with cash or crypto  

The now deregulated watches move to Miami, home of more than one crypto billionaire who wishes to, ah, diversify his/her holdings and/or the old school Latin American money launderers or a discrete representative of a Bahamian or other offshore financial institution. 

From there the highest high-end timepieces might go to one of the auction houses to complete the laundering process while the $50,000 clocks can make their way to individual collectors or to luxury boutiques of all sorts: "Has Madame considered how a Piaget would look on her wrist when wearing this gown?"

The Swiss say they are making attempts to stymie the grey market/black market while at the same time sponsoring watch fairs around the world, providing the ocean in which the money launderers and smugglers swim.

That's what I thought of when I heard gold was selling at a discount in Dubai.

"The Strait of Hormuz is not closed."

The writer, Captain John Konrad is the founder and CEO of gCaptain among other endeavors.

The Strait of Hormuz is not closed.

Iran’s military declared it shut on March 2nd. But Greek shipowner George Prokopiou doesn’t care. His company Dynacom has pushed at least five tankers through since Operation Epic Fury began.

Dark fleet tankers are still hauling Iranian… pic.twitter.com/WdVcmwPLoH

— John Ʌ Konrad V (@johnkonrad) March 7, 2026

Continues:

The Strait of Hormuz is not closed.

Iran’s military declared it shut on March 2nd. But Greek shipowner George Prokopiou doesn’t care. His company Dynacom has pushed at least five tankers through since Operation Epic Fury began. 

Dark fleet tankers are still hauling Iranian crude out of Kharg Island. 

Several sanctioned tankers linked to Iran were damaged in attacks this week, but traffic continues.

It’s a trickle, not a blockade. And that distinction matters.

Here’s what the data shows (Poten & Partners, March 6)

Oil cargo transits through Hormuz collapsed from ~100/day to near zero after strikes began, but a handful of ships keep moving. War risk insurance jumped from 0.1% to 1.0% of vessel value, 3% if you’re U.S. or Israel-affiliated. Premiums that high create a de facto blockade for most commercial operators, even if the waterway is technically open.

Tanker rates are at record highs. VLCCs earning $400,000-500,000/day on short-term floating storage contracts. Ships are stuck in the Arabian Gulf. Others are stacking up in the Gulf of Oman waiting for cargoes that may never come.

Brent crude went from $72 the Friday before the war to $90+ and climbing. The U.S. responded with SPR releases and a 30-day waiver letting Indian refiners buy Russian crude from sanctioned tankers, if loaded before March 5th.

The real question nobody in Washington is answering: what happens if this lasts weeks, not days? ...

....MUCH MORE 

Interesting throughout. 
(for some reason that first line has me thinking Shakespeare)

Earlier on the strait:

JPMorgan On Oil Volumes Removed From The Market Due To Strait Of Hormuz Closure

"There’s No Escaping It. The Strait of Hormuz Must Be Reopened."

A Modest Proposal For Reopening The Strait of Hormuz

"Israel Threatens To Target Successor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Warns Assembly of Experts"

This dropped from a feedreader about ten minutes ago.

From India's TimesNowNews, MAR 08, 2026 13:55 IST:

Israel has issued a fresh warning to Iran’s leadership, saying it will target anyone who succeeds the country’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who it claims was killed in joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28.

In a message posted in Farsi on social media, the Israeli military said it would pursue not only any future successor but also those involved in the process of appointing the next leader. The warning specifically referenced the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body responsible for selecting Iran’s supreme leader. 

As I was typing this:

Iran's Assembly of Experts Says They Have Picked A Successor To Ayatollah Khamenei But Would Rather Not Have To Meet In Person To Confirm The Choice 

Iran's Assembly of Experts Says They Have Picked A Successor To Ayatollah Khamenei But Would Rather Not Have To Meet In Person To Confirm The Choice

The last time they were going to meet the place got bombed so you can understand their reluctance. I don't know if they do the white smoke/black smoke thing like the Catholics but that day it was black smoke.

From Reuters via MSN, March 8:

Majority consensus reached on Iran's next supreme leader 

DUBAI, March 8 (Reuters) - The clerical body that will choose Iran's next supreme leader, succeeding the slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has more or less reached a majority consensus, Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Mohammadmehdi Mirbaqeri said on Sunday.

The Mehr news agency quoted him as saying "some obstacles" still needed to be resolved regarding the process.

On Saturday, a senior cleric in the Assembly of Experts said its members would meet "within one day" to choose the leader.

Iranian media said the group had a minor disagreement over whether their final decision must follow an in-person meeting or instead be issued without adhering to this formality....

....MUCH MORE 

Huh, The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Was An Israeli Spy

From the UAE's The National, March 4:

The commander who keeps surviving: Mystery deepens around Iran's Qaani and the spy question
Unverified claims online suggest he has been detained, or even executed, for spying for Israel

Esmail Qaani has spent the past two years accumulating a reputation for his extraordinary ability to walk away unscathed while everyone around him dies.

But now that Iran is at war with the US and Israel, his fate is, once again, the subject of intense speculation, with unverified claims circulating online that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has detained or even executed the Quds Force commander on suspicion of spying for Israel.

“Esmail Qaani, head of Iran’s Quds Force has been executed by IRGC. He has survived all assassination attempts so far & was even with Khamenei during US-Israel bombing but escaped. Earlier, he was taken into custody by the IRGC on suspicion of being a Mossad agent,” said one X account.

The same claim appeared in other accounts. 

Mr Qaani, 67, took command of the IRGC's Quds Force in January 2020 after the US assassination of his predecessor, Qassem Suleimani, in Baghdad. The Quds Force is Iran's elite foreign operations arm, the unit that built, armed and co-ordinated the “Axis of Resistance” across the Middle East....

....MUCH MORE 

Though not directly related to the IRGC, the accusations of high-level spying are credible. 

From October 2024:

"Iranian political rivals trade accusations of ‘Israeli infiltrators’" PLUS....

....From Israel's Ynet News, September 30:

Mossad infiltrated Iranian intelligence unit established to spy on Israel, Ahmadinejad says
Former president of Iran tells CNN Turk that the man who headed the Islamic Republic's division meant to thwart Mossad operations was found in 2021 to be an Israeli spy, and 'another 20 members were Mossad agents'; They stole Iran's nuclear documents 

The former president of Iran made an amazing claim in an interview Monday with the CNN network in Turkey. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Tehran established a unit meant to thwart the operations of Israel's Mossad, and it later became clear to them that the man who headed it was a Mossad agent.....

....MUCH MORE 

Meanwhile, In Saudi Arabia: "What Mohammed bin Salman Fears Most From the War With Iran"

From Bloomberg, March 6:

Middle East scholar Bernard Haykel explains Tehran’s calculus, the risk of regime collapse, and how Saudi Arabia’s crown prince views the conflict. 

Within 24 hours of last weekend’s US and Israeli strikes on Iran, a host of other countries were drawn into the Middle East’s latest war. Iran retaliated by targeting sites in Israel and across the Gulf — including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain — as well as Iraq, Oman and Jordan. Israel, meanwhile, has carried out air strikes on Lebanon and sent ground troops in as it seeks to dismantle the Iran-allied Hezbollah group after cross-border attacks.

This isn’t last year’s 12-day war. Shipping, air travel, energy supplies and stock markets are already feeling the strain, and the IMF has warned of global economic impact. Messaging from the Trump administration has also been inconsistent.

To contextualize the moment, we turned to an expert on politics in the Middle East. Bernard Haykel is a professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University and a regular commentator on the region, known for taking the long view on its history, religion and social change. His forthcoming book is about contemporary Saudi Arabia and its leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — with whom he is in regular contact. Born in Lebanon, Haykel also has a personal connection to the Middle East.

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. You can listen to an extended version in the latest episode of The Mishal Husain Show podcast.

Tell me about hearing that the US and Israel had begun striking Iran. What were the first thoughts that went through your mind?

I wasn’t surprised that this attack happened. I was only surprised by how soon it did, given that the Iranians were [still] negotiating with the Americans.

Word among the leaders in the Gulf States — like the crown prince of Saudi Arabia — was that Israel would attack sooner or later. They had knocked out most, if not all, of [Iran’s] air defenses last June. This was an opportunity to really destroy and defeat the system itself and topple the regime.

The surprise, really, was more to do with timing — and also the fact that the Americans were all-in, because it was primarily an Israeli decision to attack, I think. 1

¹ The US and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, targeting key military and government infrastructure and killing the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as other senior commanders. Haykel’s comment on the decision-making echoes US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s suggestion that Israel’s determination to attack Iran forced the US to act. Rubio later clarified his remarks.

Were you surprised, though, by how fast it spread to other countries?

[Only that] the Iranian regime felt existentially threatened. The Iranians have been saying this to all the leaders in the Arab world: that if they are existentially threatened, they will attack broadly and widely and try to disrupt oil and gas shipments.

Within Iran, the longer-range ballistic missiles had been very seriously destroyed by the Israelis in the 12-day war of last June. The Iranians have a much larger arsenal of short-range missiles and drones that hadn’t been damaged. So that’s why you’re seeing so many more missiles going at the UAE and at Bahrain and Kuwait and Qatar and Saudi Arabia. That’s the arsenal that the Iranians actually still have.

I want to ask how you see a moment like this. You’ve studied history, you’ve studied Islam. When you see the news, are you always using that longer lens, looking back in time, putting it in context?

Yes. These are modern states and ideologies — including the Iranian state’s ideology, [which] draws on a particular cherry-picked version of Islam.

I see the Middle East as divided between two groups or two ideologies — two ways of looking at the world. You have the status quo powers [who] basically want to develop their countries. They want peace and stability to economically advance, and they include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, also the UAE — despite what they’re doing in Sudan and Yemen.

Then you have this other group that is revisionist in the sense that they want to redraw the map of the Middle East. They want to change the power dynamics. They include, surprisingly, both Iran and the Israeli right wing.

The Iranians want to see Israel destroyed. They want to see America thrown out of the region militarily, as well as [in terms of] its economic and political and cultural influence. The right wing in Israel also wants to reshape and reimagine the Middle East according to its own political agenda. What we’re seeing today is one of the revisionist powers, that is the Israelis, attempting to do just that. To destroy the Iranian regime and to see either something replace it — or chaos.

And that’s a real fear of mine. If you end up with a failed state with 92 million people, you could end up with a catastrophic situation for Iranians and for the neighbors.

It’s interesting to me that you call Iran a modern state, given its structure — a theocracy with Ali Khamenei, supreme leader and ayatollah, at the top of the pyramid.

It is a theocracy, as much as you have a cleric who heads it. But if you look at the ideology of Iran, of the state, you see it’s a combination of different strands.

You have anti-imperialism. You have anti-colonialism. These are modern ideologies. You have social justice, ideas from communism and Marxism. Those are modern as well. But you also have elements of medieval theology repackaged in a modern guise.

And then you also have Iranian nationalism, which is again, a modern ideology, not an ancient one. So what you have is a hybrid regime in Iran, in its ideology. 2

² The present system dates from 1979 and the Islamic Revolution that ousted Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as Shah of Iran. In 1953, after Iran’s democratically elected prime minister was overthrown in a coup orchestrated by the CIA and Britain’s MI6, in a bid to maintain control over the oil industry. Now, the former Shah’s son Reza Pahlavi is seen by some Iranians as a potential post-regime leader.

Let’s dig into the peril and the complexity of this moment. Most people are imagining either the Iranian regime survives or, if it doesn’t, then something better comes. You are also raising the prospect that the state could fail and there is just anarchy.

I think there are three possibilities.

The regime survives as it is and gets hardened even further in its determination to be a revisionist power. That’s one possibility.

The other is a Venezuela-like solution: The regime stays, but you have a new leadership that’s less revolutionary [and] willing to cut deals with the Trump administration. Same regime, but reformed.

The third possibility is the downfall of the regime. And in that case, you could end up with a civil war. Iran is only about 50% Persian by ethnicity. You have other ethnicities — the Baloch, the Kurds, the Azeris, the Arabs. They could be armed by outside powers. You could end up with a very chaotic and weakened central state. That would spell disaster for Iran and for the region. Iran is a large country with a super-talented population. It has massive resources in oil and gas. Seeing a Libya-style war in Iran would be catastrophic.

Which of those three scenarios do you think is the most likely?

My bet is that this regime will survive. This is a very tough regime that still has at least 20% of the population on side, and is willing to kill to remain in power. We saw this in the response to the demonstrations that took place in January. 3

³ A sharp depreciation in the value of the Iranian rial sparked protests that became the largest since the regime came to power in 1979. The response was brutal; thousands were killed. At the time President Trump urged Iranians to keep protesting, and said “help is on the way.” He has now urged Iranians to rise up once more.

[The regime] has deep roots in Iranian society. And frankly, despite all its problems, it has delivered on basic services for its population, whether it’s healthcare, education or basic infrastructure.

So I don’t see it disappearing. I think the Americans are hoping for a Venezuela-like reformed regime, and the Israelis probably would prefer chaos in Iran....

....MUCH MORE 

China To Power-up An Ultra-efficient, Nuclear-Waste-Burning Reactor

From the South China Morning Post, March 6: 

‘1,000-year source’: China plans to fire up world-first accelerator-driven nuclear reactor
Device deemed to burn uranium 100 times more efficiently, while cutting nuclear waste lifespan to less than a thousandth of current span 

China will power up an ultra-efficient, nuclear waste-burning reactor with technology that it projects will safely meet humanity’s energy needs for the next 1,000 years.

Accelerator-driven subcritical systems (ADS) are advanced nuclear reactors that can both generate energy and transmute long-lived radioactive waste into shorter-lived and less hazardous isotopes.

Designed by researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) along with state nuclear enterprises, the China Initiative Accelerator Driven System will be the world’s first megawatt-level prototype of such a system once it goes online in southern China’s Guangdong province next year....

....MUCH MORE 

Between this, thorium, and fusion China really seems to be pushing the envelope in multiple directions at once. 

"Netanyahu tells Iranians freedom is near as Israel hits country’s oil depots for first time"

 From the Times of Israel, March 8:

Air Force strikes Iranian infrastructure, key IRGC missile sites; Iran fires a dozen volleys at Israel, no injuries reported; one killed in Dubai; Trump blasts Iran for Oct. 7 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday said the US-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran would continue unabated and that the “moment of truth” was nearing for Iranians to overthrow their government.

His comments came as the IDF said it struck Iran’s two “most central” ballistic missile sites, and, in an apparent first, oil infrastructure in Tehran.

Later on Saturday night, US President Donald Trump told reporters that the war “will continue for a while longer” without providing a timeline, and pointed to the October 7, 2023, onslaught led by Iran’s terrorist ally Hamas, as evidence of the regime’s “evil.”

Tehran fired a dozen volleys of missiles at Israel on Saturday, causing no injuries. A missile fired on Saturday night reportedly damaged a home in the central city of Lod. Iran also kept targeting the Gulf, with one person killed in a missile strike on Dubai.

The barrages on Israel came alongside missile fire from the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon, which has been attacking across the border in support of Tehran.

Though ostensibly the goal of the campaign is to destroy the regime’s ability to threaten Israel and the region, Netanyahu and Trump have both indicated that they also seek regime change, and Trump has demanded a role in choosing Iran’s next leader. 

JUST IN: Scenes in Tehran after the US bombed an Iranian oil depot.

Oil price is about to go further up ⬆️ pic.twitter.com/zMeRt5ICyA

— Ainà Dipo 🇳🇬 (@dipoaina1) March 7, 2026

But Iranian officials appear to be pressing ahead in naming a successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the late supreme leader who was killed on the first day of the war. A new leader could be named on Sunday. ...

....MUCH MORE 

Times of Israel front page. 

A Modest Proposal For Reopening The Strait of Hormuz

Following on the earlier "There’s No Escaping It. The Strait of Hormuz Must Be Reopened.". 

From maritime maven Ed "Misadventures in Shipping" Finley–Richardson's Xitter feed.

My proposal for re-establishing US deterrence in the Strait of Hormuz.

1. Iran’s tanker fleet is below, including 38 VLCCs which they depend on for their crude oil exports.

Issue an ultimatum to Iran: Every time you attack a merchant vessel, we torpedo one of your vessels. pic.twitter.com/Ad6lmSuQDL

— Ed Finley–Richardson (@ed_fin) March 6, 2026

Thread Reader unroll for the X-less (such as myself): 

2. They will attack a vessel anyway, because they won’t believe you’ll go through with it. 

....MUCH MORE 

HT: Portfolio Armor via ZeroHedge 

Apologies to the ghost of Jonathan Swift for co-opting part of his title:

A Modest Proposal for Preventing the Children of Poor People from Being a Burthen to Their Parents or Country, and for Making Them Beneficial to the Publick

ICYMI: "China Signals New Era of Slower Economic Growth"

Contextualizing and expounding on March 4's "China's parliament rolls out economic, political blue-print...".

From the Wall Street Journal, March 4: 

Beijing sets historically low growth target of 4.5% to 5% 

China signaled that the world’s second-largest economy is entering an era of slower expansion, setting a target for gross domestic product growth of between 4.5% and 5% this year.

It is the lowest target set since at least the 1990s and follows three years in which officials called for growth of “around 5%.” If China’s economy were to expand at a pace below 5% this year, it would be the slowest growth reported by the country in more than three decades, other than during the Covid-19 pandemic years.

China said its GDP grew 5% in real terms last year, meeting its official target despite a renewed trade war with the U.S.

A lower GDP target for 2026 reflects a level of tolerance for weaker growth as China’s economy contends with muted household spending, dampened investment and a real-estate market in the doldrums.

The less ambitious growth target also gives Chinese leaders some room to maneuver the economy through complicated geopolitical terrain—including conflict in the Middle East and the threat of further trade pressure from President Trump—while continuing to pursue Beijing’s strategic goal of technological self-reliance.

Premier Li Qiang, the country’s No. 2 leader, in the annual government work report released Thursday, said China must “hone our own capabilities to navigate external challenges.”

With a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year, China’s growth has become increasingly reliant on exports, creating a global imbalance that has drawn criticism from its trading partners and global institutions such as the International Monetary Fund. Exports drove China’s economic expansion in 2025 to a degree not seen since 1997, according to government data.

Economists inside and outside the country have long called for China to shift its economy to one driven more by consumption and less by its formidable manufacturing and export machine. Such a shift could ease tensions with the rest of the world and give its people greater spending power.

But a significant rebalancing of China’s growth model would be difficult to achieve in concert with its longstanding goals of technological and manufacturing dominance.

China is entering the first year of its next five-year economic plan, in which officials have signaled an intent to stick with its current trajectory of solidifying its pre-eminence in advanced manufacturing and attaining technological self-sufficiency from the U.S.-led West.

Over the past five years, successive U.S. administrations have attempted to block China from accessing leading-edge American technologies, particularly in semiconductors. That has spurred Beijing to enhance its homegrown capabilities. Those efforts have underpinned China’s rise in electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, robotics and a host of other leading-edge technologies.

Though China’s tech prowess has become the envy of the world, much of its domestic economy has been struggling in a deflationary environment in which overproduction and insufficient demand have spurred a race-to-the-bottom competition that has eroded profits. Consumer and business sentiment has plunged, wage growth has stalled and youth unemployment is flirting with historic highs.

“Stabilization is the top priority,” said Yuhan Zhang, principal economist at the Conference Board’s China Center.

Li designated boosting domestic demand as the country’s top policy objective in 2026 for a second consecutive year and called for efforts to expand investment, an area which suffered an unexpected slowdown last year.

To support its goals, China set a fiscal deficit target of around 4% of GDP, in line with last year’s record deficit target, giving policymakers ample room to rev up government spending if needed. In addition to the official fiscal deficit target, officials have a host of other methods to boost government spending.

Notably, Beijing said it would unveil new financing tools to boost investment worth 800 billion yuan, equivalent to roughly $116 billion.

Meanwhile, the government said it aims to boost defense expenditure by 7.0% this year, compared with the 7.2% increase targeted in 2025, at a time when other countries such as the U.S. and many of its global allies, including Japan, plan to ramp up military spending....

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