Saturday, March 28, 2026

"Visiting UAE, Zelensky announces defense cooperation with Abu Dhabi amid Iran attacks"

This could be a big deal.

From AFP via the Times of Israel, March 28:

Deal follows agreement between Ukraine and Saudi Arabia as Kyiv offers anti-drone expertise to Gulf nations facing Iranian attacks; Tehran targets Abu Dhabi, Omani port in latest strikes 

Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to cooperate on defense amid Iran’s drone strikes across the region, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday.

Zelensky’s unannounced visit to the UAE came a day after he announced a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, inked as the Gulf countries face Iranian drones launched by Tehran in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes.

Kyiv has sought to leverage its expertise in downing Russian drones to help Gulf nations and has deployed anti-drone experts to the region, including to the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Zelensky said on social media he had met with Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and they “agreed to cooperate in the field of security and defense. Our teams will finalize the details.”

“For all normal states, it is important to ensure stability and protect lives amid today’s threats. Ukraine has relevant expertise in this area,” he said....

....MUCH MORE 

And at Ukrainska Pravda, March 28:

Iranian media reports strike on drone storage site with Ukrainians, Foreign Ministry denies it 

Fars news agency, which is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, claimed on the morning of 28 March that Iran struck a storage site for Ukrainian unmanned systems in Dubai along with specialist personnel who supposedly were at the site..... 

"Yuan, Not Dollars: Iran’s Hormuz Toll Booth Picks Its Currency"

From TheDeepDive (Canada), March 27:

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has begun accepting yuan-denominated passage fees in the Strait of Hormuz, routing payments through Chinese maritime intermediaries while Tehran’s parliament advances legislation to make the practice permanent, shipping intelligence firm Lloyd’s List confirmed Thursday.

The system — which maritime analysts have labeled the “Tehran Toll Booth” — runs through IRGC-linked intermediaries that pull vessel identification, full crew rosters, cargo details, and ownership records before passing each file for sanctions screening and what Iranian sources describe as geopolitical review. Cleared vessels are then issued authorization codes and escorted by IRGC pilot boats through a dedicated corridor around Larak Island, well inside Iranian territorial waters.

Continues:

...and anchoring the yuan at a key global chokepoint. It means the US can’t sanction it. 

Lloyd’s List Intelligence, citing three sources familiar with the arrangement, confirmed that at least two vessels have paid transit fees in yuan, with one transit brokered by a Chinese maritime services company that also handled payment to Iranian authorities on behalf of the shipowner....

....MUCH MORE 

"Joining war, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis launch missile attack on southern Israel"

From the Times of Israel, March 28:

Sirens sound in Beersheba as IDF says ballistic missile was intercepted with no injuries; attack comes hours after group warned it was ready to intervene militarily

Yemen’s Houthis launched a ballistic missile attack at southern Israel on Saturday morning, triggering sirens in Beersheba and surrounding areas, in the first offensive from the Iran-aligned group since the start of the war with Iran.

In a statement, the Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack, saying they had targeted “sensitive Israeli military sites” with a “barrage of ballistic missiles.”

The IDF said one missile fired from Yemen was successfully shot down by air defenses.

The strike came a day after the group warned it was prepared to intervene militarily if other countries joined the United States and Israel in their campaign against Iran, or if the Red Sea was used to launch attacks on the Islamic Republic.

“We confirm that our fingers are on the trigger for direct military intervention” if any new alliances join Washington and Israel against Iran and its allies, or if the Red Sea is used for “hostile operations” against Iran, the rebel group’s military spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a televised speech late Friday evening.

Saree also said the Houthis were prepared to act if what he called the escalation against Iran and the “axis of resistance” continued, but did not say what form any intervention would take. 

The group’s involvement raises the prospect of a broader regional confrontation, particularly given the Houthis’ ability to strike targets far beyond Yemen and disrupt shipping lanes around the Arabian Peninsula....

....MUCH MORE 

Friday, March 27, 2026

Betting On The Weather, On Catastrophes, On Natural and Unnatural Phenomena

This is pretty much dead-center on our wheelhouse.

From Aeon Magazine, March 27:

Catastrophe markets
Americans love to gamble. But placing bets on wildfires, floods and storms comes with serious moral and social costs 

Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US before 2027? Will there be a megaquake by 30 June? Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? You can bet on these and dozens of other disasters in the online prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, where users trade ‘yes’ and ‘no’ shares in the outcome of future events in politics, sports, popular culture, business, and weather. Interspersed with trending categories like ‘Ukraine’, ‘Trump’ and ‘Crypto’ are event markets in ‘Hurricanes’, ‘Natural disasters’ and ‘Climate change’.

In January 2025, emergency management officials and insurance companies began estimating losses in the Los Angeles wildfires that ultimately included 440 deaths, of which 31 were direct deaths, and between $76 billion and $131 billion in property and capital losses. Online bettors had been wagering on this event and tallied their winnings or losses in catastrophe markets. By mid-January, Polymarket bets on the wildfires’ spread, duration and political fallout totalled more than $1.2 million. A Polymarket user posted a comment: ‘Volume so high in this market it cause another fire.’

After the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and fire, The New York Times published an article entitled ‘Catastrophe Markets’ that discussed the short-lived impact of the disaster on stock prices. Today’s online catastrophe markets are markets literally in disaster. People bet on whether disasters will happen and how bad they will be. These catastrophe markets raise some questions, including what, besides money, is at stake? What kind of thinking about risk in society do they promote and preclude?

One aspect of the history of catastrophe markets is very old. Weather gambling was described by one newspaper in 1931 as ‘one of the oldest, most fascinating and uncertain gambles in the world’. In 1886, betting on how long it would rain was ‘in vogue’, and, by the 1930s, office weather pools were commonplace. Weather gambling has taken on different and increasingly organised forms from the 19th to the 21st centuries, from informal wagers to gambling rings and lotteries to gamified forecasting apps like Weather Champs.

Rain betting, the oldest and most common form of weather gambling, was often tied to local community traditions. It flourished in Calcutta and Bombay in the 1880s and ’90s. Crowds gathered to gamble on whether a rain gauge would overflow, confident that cheating was impossible because there was no ambiguity in a downpour. As one newspaper remarked: ‘When it rains in India it rains; there is no half-way business about it.’ This assumption that the natural world defied market manipulation was echoed by accounts imagining rain betting as a model for speculation in the US because of its distance from volatility in railroad stocks and market swings in general.

Capitalism turned the uncertainty of the weather into a calculable risk and source of profit

So-called ‘pools on the weather’ in the early to mid-20th century signalled the growth and bureaucratisation of weather gambling, made possible in the US by government weather data. With the rise of government forecasting in Europe and the US, meteorological data became a steady stream in what the philosopher of science Ian Hacking called the 19th-century ‘avalanche of printed numbers’ produced by European state bureaucracies, and it led to the systemisation and scaling up of weather gambling in the 20th century. As a Texas newspaper observed in 1915: ‘Gambling on the weather has become an institution throughout a great part of the United States.’ Large syndicates in cities in the US and Canada were well organised, lucrative, and illegal. In 1950, St Louis police raided what newspapers called a ‘weather-betting racket’ that pulled in a reported $2.6 million annually. Some lotteries were pure chance, while others involved forecasting skill and judgment. Some cities had pools on the temperature at a specific hour the next day or on other combinations of weather data.  
Gamblers attempted to bribe US weather officials to falsify temperature figures and tampered with government weather reports en route to newspaper offices. In St Louis, extra security measures were implemented to prevent this manipulation, and the national weather service stressed its commitment to keeping weather data, a public good in the US, accessible to the public.

Weather data also enabled the financialisation of catastrophe, another precursor of catastrophe markets. In his speech on ‘New England Weather’ (1919), Mark Twain catalogued weather varieties, including ‘weather to sell; to deposit; weather to invest.’ Twain’s satirical assetisation of the weather was prescient. Speculative financial instruments designed to manage weather-related risk – rain insurance, flood insurance, weather derivatives, and catastrophe bonds – emerged during the 20th century. Through insurance and reinsurance, capitalism turned the uncertainty of the weather into a calculable risk and source of profit. This process of taming weather-related risk hinged on the assumption that the stochastic nature of rain, hurricanes and other natural hazards could be rationally managed, like an asset, with market logic. But insurance agents, energy traders and hedge fund managers were only ever partially successful. The uncertainties of bad weather and natural hazards always persisted....

....MUCH MORE 

I will note that, at least as far as fires go, the concept of insurable interest, i.e. who can bet on the event, should be structured to prevent the arsonist from participating in the payoff, perhaps by public execution. 

If interested see:

"Early abuses in life insurance markets"

On moral hazard:

Pro forma, I'm Miss America 
Warren Buffett: Avoid States With Large Unfunded Pension Liabilities

And the conceptually related:

Perversity and Credit Default Swaps

And many, many more. 

Opportunity: "Data Centers Are Transitioning From AC to DC 800-volt DC power delivery: will enable next-gen AI data centers"

Change equals opportunity. 

From IEEE Spectrum, March 24:

Last week’s Nvidia GTC conference highlighted new chip architectures to power AI. But as the chips become faster and more powerful, the remainder of data center infrastructure is playing catch-up. The power-delivery community is responding: Announcements from Delta, Eaton, and Vertiv showcased new designs for the AI era. Complex and inefficient AC-to-DC power conversions are gradually being replaced by DC configurations, at least in hyperscale data centers.

“While AC distribution remains deeply entrenched, advances in power electronics and the rising demands of AI infrastructure are accelerating interest in DC architectures,” says Chris Thompson, vice president of advanced technology and global microgrids at Vertiv.

AC-to-DC Conversion Challenges

Today, nearly all data centers are designed around AC utility power. The electrical path includes multiple conversions before power reaches the compute load. Power typically enters the data center as medium-voltage AC (1 to 35 kilovolts), is stepped down to low-voltage AC (480 or 415 volts) using a transformer, converted to DC inside an uninterruptible power supply (UPS) for battery storage, converted back to AC, and converted again to low-voltage DC (typically 54 V DC) at the server, supplying the DC power computing chips actually require.

“The double conversion process ensures the output AC is clean, stable, and suitable for data center servers,” says Luiz Fernando Huet de Bacellar, vice president of engineering and technology at Eaton.

That setup worked well enough for the amounts of power required by traditional data centers. Traditional data center computational racks draw on the order of 10 kW each. For AI, that is starting to approach 1 megawatt. At that scale, the energy losses, current levels, and copper requirements of AC-to-DC conversions become increasingly difficult to justify. Every conversion incurs some power loss. On top of that, as the amount of power that needs to be delivered grows, the sheer size of the convertors, as well as the connector requirements of copper busbars, becomes untenable. According to an Nvidia blog, a 1-MW rack could require as much as 200 kilograms of copper busbar. For a 1-gigawatt data center, it could amount to 200,000 kg of copper.

Benefits of High-Voltage DC Power

By converting 13.8-kV AC grid power directly to 800 V DC at the data center perimeter, most intermediate conversion steps are eliminated. This reduces the number of fans and power-supply units, and leads to higher system reliability, lower heat dissipation, improved energy efficiency, and a smaller equipment footprint.

“Each power conversion between the electric grid or power source and the silicon chips inside the servers causes some energy loss,” says Fernando.

Switching from 415-V AC to 800-V DC in electrical distribution enables 85 percent more power to be transmitted through the same conductor size. This happens because higher voltage reduces current demand, lowering resistive losses and making power transfer more efficient. Thinner conductors can handle the same load, reducing copper requirements by 45 percent, a 5 percent improvement in efficiency, and 30 percent lower total cost of ownership for gigawatt-scale facilities.

“In a high-voltage DC architecture, power from the grid is converted from medium-voltage AC to roughly 800-V DC and then distributed throughout the facility on a DC bus,” said Vertiv’s Thompson. “At the rack, compact DC-to-DC converters step that voltage down for GPUs and CPUs.”

A report from technology advisory group Omdia claims that higher voltage DC data centers have already appeared in China. In the Americas, the Mt. Diablo Initiative (a collaboration among Meta, Microsoft, and the Open Compute Project) is a 400-V DC rack power distribution experiment.

Innovations in DC Power Systems.... 

....MUCH MORE 

Nvidia has been planning for this for over a year. 

Also at IEEE Spectrum:

A Cold War Kit for Surviving a Nuclear Attack 

Maybe not so much "Opportunity", more of a "News you can use" sort of article. 

Fortune Exclusive: "Anthropic acknowledges testing new AI model representing ‘step change’ in capabilities, after accidental data leak reveals its existence"

 From Fortune, March 26:

AI company Anthropic is developing, and has begun testing with early access customers, a new AI model more capable than any it has released previously, the company said, following a data leak that revealed the model’s existence.  

An Anthropic spokesperson said the new model represents “a step change” in AI performance and is “the most capable we’ve built to date.” The company said the model is currently being trialed by “early access customers.”

Descriptions of the model were inadvertently stored in a publicly accessible data cache and were reviewed by Fortune.

A draft blog post that was available in an unsecured and publicly searchable data store prior to Thursday evening said the new model is called Claude Mythos and that the company believes it poses unprecedented cybersecurity risks.

The same cache of unsecured, publicly discoverable documents revealed details of a planned, invite-only CEO summit in Europe that is part of the company’s drive to sell its AI models to large corporate customers. 

The AI lab left the material, including what appeared to be a draft blog post announcing a new model, in an unsecured, public data lake, according to documents separately located and reviewed by Roy Paz, a senior AI security researcher at LayerX Security, a computer and network security company, and Alexandre Pauwels, a cybersecurity researcher at the University of Cambridge. 

In total, there appeared to be close to 3,000 assets linked to Anthropic’s blog that had not been published previously on the company’s news or research sites that were nonetheless publicly accessible in this data cache, according to Pauwels, whom Fortune asked to assess and review the material.

After being informed of the data leak by Fortune on Thursday, Anthropic removed the public’s ability to search the data store and retrieve documents from it.

In a statement provided to Fortune, Anthropic acknowledged that a “human error” in the configuration of its content management system led to the draft blog post’s being accessible. It described the unpublished material that was left in an unsecured and publicly searchable data store as “early drafts of content considered for publication.”

As well as referring to Mythos, the draft blog post also discussed a new tier of AI models that it says will be called Capybara. In the document, Anthropic says: “‘Capybara’ is a new name for a new tier of model: larger and more intelligent than our Opus models—which were, until now, our most powerful.” Capybara and Mythos appear to refer to the same underlying model.

Currently, Anthropic markets each of its models in three different sizes: The largest and most capable model versions are branded Opus; while slightly faster and cheaper, but less capable, versions are branded Sonnet; and the smallest, cheapest, and fastest are called Haiku. However, in the blog post, Anthropic describes Capybara as a new tier of model that is even larger and more capable than Opus, but also more expensive.

“Compared to our previous best model, Claude Opus 4.6, Capybara gets dramatically higher scores on tests of software coding, academic reasoning, and cybersecurity, among others,” the company said in the blog.

The document also said the company had completed training Claude Mythos, which the draft blog post described as “by far the most powerful AI model we’ve ever developed.”

In response to questions about the draft blog post, the company acknowledged training and testing a new model. “We’re developing a general purpose model with meaningful advances in reasoning, coding, and cybersecurity,” an Anthropic spokesperson said. “Given the strength of its capabilities, we’re being deliberate about how we release it. As is standard practice across the industry, we’re working with a small group of early access customers to test the model. We consider this model a step change and the most capable we’ve built to date.”

The document Fortune and the cybersecurity experts reviewed consists of structured data for a web page, complete with headings and a publication date, suggesting it forms part of a planned product launch. It outlines a cautious rollout strategy for the model, beginning with a small group of early-access users. The draft blog notes that the model is expensive to run and not yet ready for general release.

Significant new cybersecurity risks...

....MUCH MORE 

"Australia rare-earth stocks soar as China clamps down on exports"

Lynas is our preferred rare earth name, despite MP getting most of the attention (and U.S. government money). 

From Nikkei Asia, March 27: 

Market cap triples in year for Lynas, largest rare-earth separator outside China, on Japan, US deals 

Rare-earth stocks in Australia have risen sharply over the past year amid growing demand from sources other than China for the metals, found in everything from mobile phones and cars to modern weapons.

Lynas Rare Earths, the world's largest commercial rare-earth separator outside China, announced this month it had locked in purchase price guarantees with a joint venture co-owned by Japanese trading house Sojitz. It marks the first time a Japanese client has committed to a price floor for a rare-earth deal.

"The implementation of fair market pricing will reduce price volatility for Lynas and enable continued growth and investment in our operations," Lynas CEO Amanda Lacaze said in a press release.

The sides have agreed to a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for neodymium-praseodymium, which is used to make magnets for vehicles, among other applications. Lynas is entering into a similar deal with the U.S. Defense Department.

Lynas' market capitalization reached 20 billion Australian dollars ($14 billion) as of Friday, roughly tripling in value over 12 months. The company has surpassed the $9.4 billion market cap of its largest U.S. rival, MP Materials, and is gaining ground on China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech, the biggest Chinese player with a market cap of $24 billion....

....MUCH MORE, an excellent overview. 

China Northern is an old friend formerly known as "Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co., Ltd." As noted in a 2024 post on Baidu: 

....China has a communist government, they pick winners and losers in business, that's what communists do.

We first became aware of how important this understanding is in the case of the Chinese rare earth companies. Here's a snip from a 2009 post, "Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co., Ltd. UP 10% Wednesday (600111: Shanghai)", this is a couple years before the twenty-tweens rare earth mania:

....China's moves to tighten control on the mining and export of a class of metal ores called rare earth are aimed at attracting high-tech manufacturing to Inner Mongolia, and not at dominating the market, a senior Chinese official said.

Wednesday's comments by Zhao Shuanglin, vice chairman of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, appear aimed at quelling concerns that China is trying to dominate the global market for rare-earth resources, used in some environmentally friendly technologies. Rare-earth metals greatly improve batteries made for hybrid cars....

...China also is taking steps to consolidate its rare-earth industry. Mr. Zhao, who said he runs the region's industrial policy, said Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth Hi-Tech Co. would lead that consolidation. The move is aimed at creating a group of rare-earth miners and processors in the region's western parts. Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth's stock rose 7.6% in Shanghai trading Wednesday.

"Most of the consolidation is complete," Mr. Zhao said. "We want to build Baotou into an international rare earth production base."....

By November 2010 the story was:
"Rare Earth: Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth Hi Tech Co. Ltd. Reports 369% Increase in Q3 Net":
This is the big dog.
And one that the Chinese government says will be on top of the mandated industry consolidation.

IMBSREHTCL was chosen to succeed.

In the case of artificial intelligence it was apparent by 2017 that Baidu, known in the West as a search engine, was the anointed one for machine learning and such.

Some more 2009 posts on "IMBSREHTCL":

Again, years before the mania and "Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co., Ltd." being on everyone's lips and our chosen tagline coming from one of the best books on investing ever written:

"...Words like 'uranium', 'rare earths', etc. seem to be magic to
 those unsuspecting who are often fleeced..."
Gerald M. Loeb
The Battle for Investment Survival
Simon & Schuster, 1935

Rabobank: "Logic, Logistics, And At Least Another 10 Days..."

Michael Every at Rabobank via ZeroHedge, March 27:

Thursday was a rocky day in markets ahead of today’s deadline for the US to shift from bombing Iran’s nuclear, missile, drone, military-industrial, and regime sites to destroying its electricity grid, potentially taking out its power generation for a generation, and unleashing an Iranian response against the broader region’s power, water, and energy infrastructure.

Given that backdrop, some TACO the view it was logical Trump subsequently extended the deadline to 8PM EST on Monday 6 April, because “talks are ongoing, and despite erroneous statements to the contrary from the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well.” Is this true, is Trump pulling a head-fake ahead of an impending strike, or did he just ramp the markets looking for an off-ramp?

Supporting a ‘deal ahead’ view, Israel is shifting from hitting regime to military-industrial targets and is back to 24-hour attack runs despite the incredible strain it puts on its pilots and fighter jets. Yet there are other logics derived from logistics.

The official Iranian position is that the US proposal to end the war is “one-sided and unfair.” Indeed, Iran’s hardline new leaders are calling for a rapid move to gain a nuclear bomb, and it is already recruiting children as young as 12 to man checkpoints in Tehran, according to Al Arabiya, and is using civilian shields around regime targets. Iran also says Yemen's Houthis may cut off Saudi Oil flowing from its Red Sea back-up pipeline and target the key trade route between Asia and Europe.

The Pentagon is reportedly choosing ‘final blow’ options if talks fail. There are strong suggestions that if the US steps up its attacks, the UAE and Saudi Arabia will move from defence to offence alongside it, which would change the regional dynamic – they, like Israel, are not able to ‘go home’ afterwards if they fail. This morning also sees news the US may send an additional 10,000 ground troops - and most of those forces could only arrive by next weekend, just ahead of the new Monday deadline. (Also note in 1991’s Gulf War 1, the US sent 650,000 troops at its peak, and in 2003’s Gulf War 2, around 450,000.)

However, that decline is part of the logic arguing why the US is acting – both to deal with Iran’s nuclear threat and to keep control of key commodity supply chains while it still can. Indeed, it’s reported US plans may include seizing key Iranian oil assets, either strategic islands in Hormuz or the oil hub of Kharg. Trump floated the US controlling Iranian oil yesterday, as it de facto does Venezuelan. If the US were to take the mouth of the Strait it could lock Iranian oil in, throttling the regime, while letting others’ out, albeit under some fire.

In short, we have an extension of the war until at least April 6 as the financial press say ‘24 days to disaster: Trump’s new deadline won’t change oil shock maths’. Oil already at sea pre-war will have been used up by then, revealing the true supply shock. Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks have taken 40% of Russian oil export capacity out, there was a strike against a Turkish tanker carrying Russian oil yesterday, and a major cyclone just forced Australian LNG shutdowns. Vietnam and the Philippines are asking Japan to help them from its own oil reserves. Expect more such pleas.

We also have conflating geopolitical shocks that will echo after the war is over. Trump scorched NATO for failing an Iran ‘loyalty test’ and seems to be flirting with dumping the alliance again, despite Secretary General Rutte saying, “NATO is safer under Trump.” Europe still insists, “This isn’t our war.” Trump literally replied, “Ukraine isn’t ours.” Yet that’s as Russia admits it is helping Iran militarily, as Iran helped Russia fight until now…. and as the German Armed Forces Association called to prepare for a war economy.

Potential geoeconomic shocks are also clear beyond those from energy. Though the EU parliament approved the US trade deal yesterday, avoiding the US threat to use LNG exports as an economic weapon, there were caveats. The updated agreement allows for its suspension if: (1) the US undermines the deal's objectives or discriminates against EU economic operators - which implies there cannot be higher tariffs for different sectors, which the US is going to insist on; (2) if the US threatens the territorial integrity of member states - which implies Greenland, which the US is likely to return to after the Diego Garcia debacle with the UK, Spain’s restriction on allowing the Pentagon to use its airbase there, and some EU countries not allowing US planes to overfly them; (3) if the US engages in economic coercion – which is always a risk with economic statecraft....

....MUCH MORE 

"SoftBank Obtains $40B Bridge Facility for Additional OpenAI Investment"

Of all the possible weak links in the daisy-chain, and there are a few, SoftBank's increasingly central role is the most concerning.

Mr. Son's history, going back to the time he briefly held the title of world's richest person, is leveraged beta. No great technological insight (largest investor in WeWork) no fancy risk mitigation, just leverage in all its forms and like Sam Insull, at every level of the organization.

Throw in the fact that OpenAI and their ChatGPT may not be the ultimate winner of this unprecedented build-out and there are reasons to be hyper-aware. Stay tuned. 

That said, this loan should be okay (barring a depression where it can't be re-financed, à la Insull) it's all the other borrowings and what Mr. Son will do in the next couple years, that could cause worldwide problems.

From Computing.net, March 27:

Key Points

  • SoftBank arranged a $40 billion unsecured bridge facility for additional OpenAI investment
  • Facility reaches maturity in March 2027
  • Financing consortium includes JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Mizuho, SMBC, and MUFG Bank
  • SoftBank previously pledged $30 billion to OpenAI through Vision Fund 2
  • Proceeds will support both OpenAI investment and broader corporate operations

SoftBank Group revealed on Friday that it has arranged a $40 billion financing package through a bridge loan facility. The capital will support expanded investment in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, alongside general corporate operational needs. 

The bridge facility carries no collateral requirements, indicating lenders approved the arrangement based on SoftBank’s financial standing alone. The repayment deadline falls in March 2027.

A consortium of prominent financial institutions provided the financing. The lending group comprises JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Mizuho Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp, and MUFG Bank.

SoftBank previously established a significant position in OpenAI. The Tokyo-based investment firm had committed $30 billion to OpenAI via its Vision Fund 2 vehicle.

The newly arranged $40 billion facility supplements that earlier commitment. Together, SoftBank’s aggregate capital allocation to OpenAI represents a substantial financial stake contingent on deployment strategies.

SoftBank shares climbed 3.24% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange after the disclosure. The company trades under ticker symbol 9984 on the Japanese exchange.

SoftBank’s Expanding AI Investment Strategy....

....MUCH MORE 

"Dollar-pegged pizza in Tehran points to a different kind of regime change"

If gentle reader recalls, December 2025 and January 2026 were tumultuous months for Iran. Among the more important stories we happened to catch were:

December 15
Iran by Slavoj Žižek: "When Communism Is the Only Option"
And from the AP via the Times of Israel, December 15:
Iran’s rial currency plummets to new low, sparking fears of higher food prices  
January 16:
"The Obscure Bank Collapse That Sent Iran Into a Tailspin"

And the headline story from Iran International, March 25: 

Iran’s economy is no longer merely experiencing high inflation; it is exhibiting the structural symptoms of a nation losing faith in its own currency and facing a shift in its monetary regime.

Over the past year, a pattern has emerged across markets, policy decisions and price behavior pointing to the early stages of de facto dollarization.

In April 2025, when a “five-dollar pizza” shop opened in Tehran’s affluent Niavaran neighborhood, many dismissed the fixed dollar price as a marketing gimmick. At the time, one pizza cost roughly 5 million rials, with inflation reportedly above 40%.

Less than a year later, on the eve of the current war, the same pizza was priced at 8.6 million rials, while officials acknowledged inflation exceeding 70%. What initially appeared symbolic began to look practical.

The shift was not confined to niche businesses and high-end stores. Informal dollar transactions, once largely limited to luxury goods or services aimed at foreign customers, steadily expanded.

In the months leading up to the 12-day war, despite the departure of many foreign nationals, dollar-pegged property sales and rentals increased noticeably. While upscale properties led the trend, mid-range apartments also entered the market with dollar-based pricing.

By the end of 2025, the US dollar had climbed to 1,430,000 rials, up from 800,000 in January of the same year. The volatility hit the automotive market hard. With car production concentrated among three major state-linked manufacturers and supply unable to meet demand, the price of second-hand cars in rial terms outpaced the increase in the dollar exchange rate.

Media headlines read, “The dollar is in the driver’s seat,” and traders increasingly priced vehicles in dollars. In December, automobile market expert Abdollah Babaei warned that if current trends continued, car transactions would effectively become dollarized.

Economists began warning of a structural shift. Former Tehran Stock Exchange chief Hossein Abdeh Tabrizi cautioned that Iran "will enter the stage of dollarization" if 60% inflation and government overspending continued.

[T]he statement went viral, and many echoed the growing concern that “Iran’s economy is on a dangerous path,” with the rial losing its function both as a store of value and as a unit of account....

....MUCH MORE 

Capital Markets: "The Dollar and Oil are Bid "

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex: 

The dollar and oil remain firm. The market has a had muted reaction to President Trump’s announcement late yesterday that it will extend its pledge not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days (April 6). At the same time, reports indicate the US is considering sending more troops to the area. The logic of “escalation to de-escalate” continues to play out and this will dampen risk appetites ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, Beijing is taking a page from the US playbook and opened investigations into US trade practices (supply chains and renewables) apparently in response to recently announced US Section 301 investigations. 

This is the first time since late last November, the PBOC lifted the dollar’s reference rate on a weekly basis. Still, the restrain Beijing is showing is notable. Since the war began, the yuan has been among the strongest currencies in the world. Its roughly 0.7% decline is half of the loss seen among best G10 currency and most emerging market currencies. Meanwhile, a large sell-off of Japanese government bonds keeps the yen under pressure and the greenback could push above JPY160 today for the first time since mid-2024....

*****

...•China reported February industrial profits on its year-to-date year-over-year style. The 15.2% surge is the most since the pandemic recovery in 2021. Profits had contracted in most of H1 25 but turned positive in the second half. They rose by 0.6% last year, the first annual increase since 2021. Separately, China reported a record $243.8 bln quarterly current account surplus (Q4 25). Lastly, we note that Beijing has launched trade investigations into the US (supply chain practices and reusable products), which seem aimed to give it chits given new the US Section 301 investigations. 

....MUCH MORE 

"Brookings Institution paper charts path toward smaller Fed balance sheet"

Do it. Do it now.

From Reuters, March 25 i.e. before Governor Miran's speech*:

  • Academic charts path to reduce Fed balance sheet
  • Fed's large balance sheet offers financial stability benefits
  • Trump associates criticize large Fed balance sheet
If the Federal Reserve truly wants a smaller balance sheet, it can get there with regulatory changes, tweaks to the payment system and more frequent market interventions by the ​central bank, new research published by the Brookings Institution said on Wednesday.
 
In a paper written by Darrell Duffie, professor of management and professor ‌of finance at the Stanford University Graduate School of Business, the academic sketched out a complex path that would take some time to achieve. Duffie wrote that the key focus of any move to reduce the overall size of the Fed balance sheet comes down to reducing the market’s still very strong appetite for reserves.
 
To temper that appetite, Duffie wrote liquidity rules could be relaxed ​to make financial firms more comfortable with keeping less liquidity on hand. The central bank’s Fedwire payment system could be changed to more closely ​link firms’ incoming and outgoing payments, further reducing the need to keep excess cash on hand.
 
The Fed could also change the ⁠rate it pays to financial firms and lower it for reserves beyond a given level. And finally, the Fed could use temporary liquidity injections, called temporary open market ​operations, more frequently, as opposed to the current system that puts that type of liquidity management largely on autopilot.
 
“I'm not taking a stand on whether the Fed should ​reduce its balance sheet,” Duffie told reporters in a virtual meeting. “That's a big cost-benefit analysis that I'm leaving up to the Fed.”
 
But he noted “the benefits of a large balance sheet are quite tangible” and having a system flush with liquidity brings financial stability benefits and has worked well for the Fed’s monetary policy mission.
 
“The costs are more intangible and sometimes verge into politics,” as ​some worry about how large Fed holdings can affect Fed independence, among other concerns, Duffie said.

REGIME CHANGE
Duffie’s work to map out a path toward smaller Fed holdings ​comes as Kevin Warsh, a staunch critic of a large Fed balance sheet, has been tapped to succeed current Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his leadership term ends in May. Treasury Secretary ‌Scott Bessent ⁠has also been critical of a large Fed footprint in asset markets. 

Big Fed holdings are the product of economic crisis and the Fed’s response to those events.
 
The size of the Fed’s balance sheet has risen from just under $1 trillion just before the onset of the financial crisis in 2008 to a current level of $6.6 trillion, which is down from the $9 trillion peak hit in 2022....
....MUCH MORE 

And get the mortgage paper off the balance sheet.**

*Speech
March 26, 2026
Prospects for Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet
Governor Stephen I. Miran
At the Economic Club of Miami, Miami, Florida 


**August 22, 2022 
Former Philadelphia Fed Head Plosser On The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet With Comments On the Mortgage Backed Securities Portfolio
A snappy little 41 page working paper by the former Philadelphia Fed President, March 10, 2022

MORE Plosser: 

Federal Reserve Independence: Is it Time for a New Treasury-Fed Accord?  

Thursday, March 26, 2026

"European Parliament gives conditional approval to EU-US trade deal"

LNG will be forthcoming.

From the BBC, March 26:

The European Parliament has backed legislation to implement an EU-US trade deal, following months of uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff threats.

A majority of lawmakers voted in favour of the measures on Thursday, but added a series of safeguards to ensure the US honours its side of the deal struck last July.

The legislation would set tariffs at 15% for most EU goods - down from the 30% initially threatened - in exchange for European investment in the US and the removal of EU import duties on US industrial goods.

The vote comes after months of delay following Trump's threats to annex Greenland and a US Supreme Court ruling that found some of his tariffs unlawful.

The EU assembly voted by 417 to 154, and 71 abstentions, in favour of the legislation.

The text will need to be signed off by all of the bloc's 27 member states before it is implemented, with a concluding vote expected in April or May.

On Thursday, lawmakers moved to strengthen its safeguards, including a provision to suspend the agreement if the US imposes additional tariffs above 15% or introduces new duties on EU goods. Another would halt the deal if the US threatened the EU's territorial sovereignty.

MEPs also included a "sunrise clause" that means EU tariff reductions will only take effect if the US upholds its side of the bargain - including lowering tariffs to 15% on EU products that contain less than 50% steel and aluminium.

When the framework agreement was announced last summer, Trump said the 50% US tariff on global steel and aluminium would still apply to the EU....

....MUCH MORE 

Iran Goes All In With A Pair Of Deuces

That's poker talk for bluffing with a weak hand and an allusion to the recently deceased Iranian Navy guys.

Headlines at Iran International's liveblog:

The Cleveland Fed MONTHLY Headline Inflation Nowcast For March Is Now Up To 0.76%

Which is an annualized rate of 9.51%

Here's the latest from Cleveland, I'm still squinting at the slide rule to decide if it's 9.51% or 9.50%. 

Capital Markets: "Hope Wanes, USD Little Changed while Bonds and Stocks Weaken"

From Marc to Market:

The US dollar is trading in narrow trading ranges against the G10 currencies today, but the calm in the foreign exchange market belies stress in other parts of the capital markets. Equities and bonds have been sold. The hope that an end to the Middle East conflict has faltered amid the conflicting signals from the US, which is sending thousands of more troops to the region, fanning fears of a ground invasion of some time, while Tehran countered US proposals with a set of their own conditions. Front-month WTI and Brent oil futures are trading new highs for the week. 

President Trump’s initial 48-hour ultimatum was replaced with a five-day grace period, which ostensibly ends tomorrow. The uncertainty hangs heavy and can be expected to dampen risk appetites today and tomorrow barring constructive developments. The conflict can be on the edge of significant escalation or a resolution....

....MUCH MORE  

That headline has the tone of some of our past commentary on Japanese markets:

Ten-Year Falls Like Cherry Blossom in Gentle Spring Rain
Currency devaluations reflect silently on still and glassy water.
Stocks to open generally mournful and subdued. 

Auspicious update, below.


Invest in Kirin

Mindfulness overrated

Sensei insensate

More On Electrical Transformer Shortages, This One's Big: "Micron's $24 billion Singapore fab could need 500 transformers...."

Following on Grid: "Wait times for Hitachi Energy transformers hit more than 30 months"

From Tom's Hardware, March 25: 

Micron's $24 billion Singapore fab could need 500 transformers, more than double the output of any single manufacturer — heavy electrical infrastructure the latest AI buildout bottleneck
Electrical infrastructure has become the latest chokepoint for the memory industry. 

Micron’s planned $24 billion NAND flash expansion in Singapore will require 400 to 500 power transformers, which is more than double the 100 to 150 units a standard wafer fab typically needs, according to industry sources as reported by DigiTimes. The scale exceeds the annual output capacity of any single Taiwanese transformer manufacturer, turning heavy electrical equipment into a bottleneck for AI-driven semiconductor buildouts.

Micron's Singapore project, where production is targeted for late 2028, is one piece of a broader global buildout. The company has acquired PSMC's Miaoli Tongluo fab in Taiwan for $1.8 billion, with that facility slated for 2026, while new plants in Idaho and New York are underway, and a Hiroshima facility is expected to begin operations in the second half of 2026....

....MUCH MORE 

And more on the Singapore plant, From January 27:

Big Money: "Micron commits $24B to Singapore as AI memory crunch bites" (MU) 

"France among nations eyeing Australia critical minerals investment, Australian minister says"

Well good, the more the merrier. 

From Reuters via MSN, March 25:

France is among the countries poised to invest in Australian critical minerals projects, Australia's resources minister said on Thursday, as Canberra's framework deal with the U.S. prompts nations with advanced manufacturing sectors to secure access to supply. 

Australia has been on a four-year mission to build an industry for minerals like rare earths that are key to future technologies such as electronics and defence, as countries look to diversify their supply chain away from dominant producer China.

As well as last October's critical minerals agreement with the United States, which included an $8.5 billion pipeline of investments, Australia has inked agreements for sector cooperation with Japan, South Korea, India, France, Germany and Britain.

"Since the framework agreement with the U.S., that work has taken on new urgency from some other partners as they make sure they also have access to critical minerals," Australian Resources Minister Madeleine King told Reuters in an interview during the Minerals Week summit in Canberra.

"France is more and more keen," she said....

....MUCH MORE 

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Memory: "Google Breakthrough Spurs Chip Selloff Despite Analyst Doubt" (GOOG)

 From Bloomberg, March 25:

Shares of computer memory and storage makers slumped on concerns over demand after Google researchers touted a new compression technique. But it may be a hiccup rather than an existential threat.

SK Hynix Inc., a key maker of memory chips for artificial intelligence applications, fell as much as 6.4% on the Korea Exchange. Flash memory manufacturer Kioxia Holdings Corp. dropped by a similar measure in Tokyo. That followed losses by Micron Technology Inc. and Sandisk Corp. Wednesday in New York.

Alphabet Inc.’s Google said its new TurboQuant technology can limit the amount of memory required to run large language models by at least a factor of six, reducing the overall cost of training artificial intelligence. Memory forms a vital part of Nvidia Corp.’s accelerators and demand has surged during the AI boom.

The Google news spurred some caution that memory needs may be reduced. Bulls tracking the blistering rally in global memory shares say that improved efficiency will actually increase rather than reduce demand, however, pointing to a theory known as the Jevons Paradox.

The 19th century premise was cited in a note from the trading desk at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Its analysts said that investors may take profits on the news, but there’s no near-term threat to memory consumption.

TurboQuant is positive for hyperscalers given the return on investment opportunity, Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim wrote in a note. It also may be beneficial for memory makers longer term he added, as “a lower cost per token can also lead to higher product adoption demand.”....

....MUCH MORE 

Korea's KOSPI is down  181.75 (-3.22%) at 5,460.46.

As noted exiting from January 2025's "ASML CEO Says DeepSeek’s Emergence Is ‘Good News’ for AI": 

Time was when even mentioning Jevons was anachronistic/borderline fuddy-duddy, e.g.

And he's brought his paradox.

And going back to 2009 because Jevons, like myself, tried to figure out a way to make some money off of Herschel's sunspot observations but (like myself) couldn't. Backlinks in April 2020's "Sunspots and Agricultural Production (William Herschel does a driveby)": including his (Jevons') 1879 submission to the journal Nature.

Grid: "Wait times for Hitachi Energy transformers hit more than 30 months" - UPDATED

UPDATE - More On Electrical Transformer Shortages, This One's Big: "Micron's $24 billion Singapore fab could need 500 transformers...."

Original post: 

From Nikkei Asia, March 25:

US energy demand surges on data centers, factories, renewables and EV charging

Surging energy demand in the U.S. has pushed lead times for large power transformers to more than 30 months, according to the world's biggest transformer maker, as manufacturing bottlenecks are creating a supply shortage.

Anthony Allard, head of North America at Hitachi Energy, told Nikkei Asia that the U.S. cannot produce enough large power transformers to meet demand despite the billions of dollars the company is spending to increase American manufacturing capacity.

Hitachi Energy is investing $457 million to build a large power transformer factory in South Boston, Virginia, and to expand existing transformer and high-voltage equipment manufacturing facilities as part of a $2 billion package to strengthen the North American supply chain.

"We are investing in that new factory and at the same time having conversations with customers who are already asking us to benefit from this additional capacity," Allard said this week on the sidelines of the annual CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference in Houston. He added that 70% of the large power transformers that the company sells in the U.S. are imported.

The equipment is critical for power grids to adapt voltage.

Utilities and transmission owners are rapidly developing new electricity capacity to meet swelling demand from new data centers, factories, renewable energy projects and electric vehicle charging infrastructure. BloombergNEF said data center power demand is set to spike from 34.7 gigawatts in 2024 to 106 gigawatts by 2035.

That in turn has created a need for transmission and distribution equipment along the grid. From 2019 to 2025, demand for power transformers soared by 116% while that for generation step-up transformers rocketed by 274%, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie....

....MUCH MORE 

For what it's worth both GE Vernova and Quanta Services manufacture transformers. 

If interested see also:

May 20 2025: "Elon Musk says AI could run into power capacity issues by middle of next year"

*****

.....Previously on electrical transformers: 

March 2025 -  "This Essential Element of the Power Grid Is in Critically Short Supply" 
Elon Musk has been prophesying this for the last couple years. And here we are....

And Back To The Houthis...

Two from Iran International, March 25: 

3 hours ago

Iran could open new front at Bab el-Mandeb Strait - Tasnim

Iran could open a new front in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if attacks are carried out on its territory or islands, IRGC-affiliated Tasnim reported, citing an unnamed military source.

“If the Americans intend to take action regarding the Strait of Hormuz, they should be careful not to add another strait to their challenges ... Iran is fully prepared to escalate the situation,” Tasnim quoted the source as saying.

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis had previously attacked ships near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

If interested see also March 20's "Yemen's Houthis weigh Bab al-Mandab blockade to back Iran, official says". 

And:

Mass text in Iran promotes Trump assassination campaign, $25m pledged

A mass text message sent to mobile users in Iran promoted what it described as an “international campaign to reward the assassination of Trump,” according to screenshots of the message shared with Iran International.

The message urges recipients to register their support through a website and to confirm participation by sending a number via SMS. It also directs users to further information on the domestic platform Rubika.

The text included a link to the campaign's website that could not be accessed from outside Iran.

Tehran-based Didban Iran reported that the campaign has gained around 290,000 supporters, with total pledged amounts reaching $25 million.

The website says that these sums have not been collected and instead represent pledged amounts, according to the report.

A statement on the site said the campaign was launched following what it described as a jihad fatwa issued in response to the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, and that it aimed to fund a reward for the assassin of US President Donald Trump.

Sounds like something the Mossad might think up: "Please supply your contact information..." 

Iran International front page

"JPMorgan sees 'national security risk' in old grid networks" (GEV; PWR; PRY.MI; etc.)

Welcome aboard the Love Train.

From Bloomberg via Canada's Financial Post, March 24:

Run-down U.S. infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather and cyberattacks, posing a growing threat 

JPMorgan Chase & Co. says aging, run-down grid infrastructure now risks undermining security goals, with everything from extreme weather to cyberattacks posing a growing threat.

The Wall Street bank, which laid out its analysis in a report seen by Bloomberg, describes the current decades-old grid network as a “national security risk.” Against that backdrop, investments that make grid infrastructure more resilient are becoming “increasingly attractive,” according to JPMorgan.

The comments come as investors, policymakers and consumers struggle to keep up with the daily shocks playing out in energy markets as the Iran war — now in its fourth week — rages on. Any long-lasting dent to supply would coincide with an historic surge in demand for energy, with potential bottlenecks in overwhelmed grids adding to risks.

All of that adds up to “major tailwinds for grid investments,” Sarah Kapnick, author of the report and JPMorgan’s global head of climate advisory, said in an interview.

It’s “a massive investment opportunity,” she said.

On the one hand there’s artificial intelligence, electrification and the re-industrialization of developed nations, which on their own account for “massive growth in electricity demand,” Kapnick said.

“Add to that the energy volatility from geopolitics, which means you may no longer want to rely on oil and gas deliveries from partners in the Middle East and North America and instead want to shift towards building out new renewable technologies that allow for energy self-sufficiency,” she said.

JPMorgan, which collects fees advising utilities and energy clients on grid-related deals, has made clear it views investments in critical U.S. infrastructure as key to its role as the country’s largest bank. In 2025, it unveiled a US$1.5 trillion, 10-year plan designed to ensure enough capital gets channelled into areas spanning semiconductors, data centres, medicines and critical minerals. Such investment is crucial to safeguarding supply chain resilience, economic growth and competitiveness, according to the bank’s analysis.

When it comes to the grid, JPMorgan’s Security and Resiliency Initiative (SRI) is about trying to “figure out where are the bottlenecks that are being ignored,” Michael Johnson, vice chairman of SRI at JPMorgan, said in an interview. And to “apply capital to try and fix those is eminently more useful” than just saying “we need a lot of grid investment,” which is “obvious and not helpful.”....

....MUCH MORE 

The symbols in the headline are part of our hyper-concentrated mini-portfolio.

Throw in CCJ for uranium and 49% of nuke maker Westinghouse along with FSLR if your mandate says you have to have solar exposure and this is as close to a "set it and forget it" basket as we can come up with. Has been since 2024.