Thursday, October 22, 2026

"OpenAI nears up to $30 billion funding round at $1.25 trillion valuation led by UAE investors"

From CNBC, October 22: 

  • OpenAI is close to finalizing an up to $30 billion funding round at a $1.25 trillion pre-money valuation, according to people familiar with the deal.
  • Investors from the United Arab Emirates and Coatue are leading the financing, the people said.
  • The financing is being positioned as a bridge ahead of a potential IPO. 

OpenAI is closing in on a funding round that could value the artificial intelligence giant at more than $1 trillion ahead of a potential initial public offering. 

The San Francisco-based AI company is raising up to $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, according to people familiar with the deal, who asked not to be named because the details were confidential. That valuation does not include new capital raised.

Investors from the United Arab Emirates are leading the round alongside Coatue, according to people familiar with the deal.

OpenAI told investors Thursday that it aims to secure signatures by the end of next week. The final size of the round is still being determined, the people said. 

The financing is being positioned as an “opportunistic” bridge ahead of a potential IPO, the people said. An OpenAI listing will likely come in 2027, CFO Sarah Friar has told employees....

....MORE 

Other examples of Surrealism from the Art Institute of Chicago:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b0/Time_transfixed.jpg?utm_source=en.wikipedia.org&utm_campaign=index&utm_content=original 

1938
René Magritte
Belgian, 1898–1967

https://uploads8.wikiart.org/images/suzanne-duchamp/broken-and-restored-multiplication-1919.jpg!Large.jpg 

Suzanne Duchamp

 https://uploads1.wikiart.org/images/salvador-dali/invention-of-the-monsters.jpg!Large.jpg

Salvador Dalí

Ummm: "Russia Just Did Something Menacing in Orbit That Satellite Trackers Say Is a First"

From Gizmodo, October 20: 

Cosmos 2612 spent several days stalking a U.S.-operated commercial radar-imaging satellite believed to support the Ukrainian military.  

Russia has drawn renewed scrutiny following a series of reportedly unprecedented orbital maneuvers, in which one of its government-owned satellites operated in extreme proximity to a U.S.-operated satellite, highlighting growing concerns over the risks of confrontation in space. 

The Russian satellite, designated Cosmos 2612, carried out a series of close-proximity maneuvers toward ICEYE-X36, a U.S.-registered commercial radar-imaging satellite, between October 15 and 19, based on data by space-tracking company LeoLabs. Cosmos 2612 spent two days at a close proximity of less than 3 miles (5 kilometers) with ICEYE-X36 before moving away to 62 miles (100 kilometers), according to Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist who tracks ongoing space activities....

....MUCH MORE 

You only live twice.

Followup: USAID As The Kicked-Over Hornets Nest

Although yesterday's ""Democrats have a message for Elon Musk: Watch out" (SPCX; TSLA)" wasn't about USAID specifically I exited with the most recent Inspector General's Report on why USAID couldn't be audited and the outro:

It is the cuts to USAID and its transfer to State Department oversight that kicked the hornets nest. Some of the very powerful "six ways from Sunday" constituencies have decided they want that money and they want that control.

That wasn't just rando opinion.

Here's AlterNet, July 7, 2025:

'They’ve done a very foolish thing': Fired Trump officials pledge to stop him 

Officials recently fired by President Donald Trump from USAID and the State Department are now repurposing their years of experience battling authoritarian regimes abroad to resist what they see as growing authoritarianism in the United States.
For years, these democracy-building experts — ousted earlier this year by the Trump administration — were dispatched to support opposition movements and civil-society actors in autocratic countries. Today, equipped with time and a vast network of former colleagues, they are redirecting that expertise to challenge what they see as an attack on democracy, NOTUS reported Monday.
The purge began in February, when Trump abruptly fired USAID’s inspector general, Paul K. Martin, after his office reported on the impact of the administration’s aid freeze. Shortly thereafter, roughly 83% of programs were cancelled, 94% of personnel laid off, and USAID was folded into the State Department — a move observers called an “advance of authoritarianism."

The dismantling sparked harsh rebukes from former presidents, international partners, and aid advocates. 

“Take it from those of us who worked in authoritarian countries: We’ve become one,” a current federal official, who was not named, told NOTUS.
“They were so quick to disband AID, the group that supposedly instigates color revolutions. But they’ve done a very foolish thing. You just released a bunch of well‑trained individuals into your population. If you kept our offices going and had us play solitaire in the office, it might have been safer to keep your regime," the source added.
The fired experts are mobilizing rapidly, per the report. They are said to be hosting digital briefings for journalists, providing consulting to grassroots organizations, coordinating litigation strategies and advising state attorneys general on constitutional challenges to executive authority.

Some within this informal network of Trump opponents have even begun circulating a decades‑old CIA pamphlet among allies still serving in government — titled “Simple Sabotage.”  

The pamphlet says: “Widespread practice of simple sabotage will harass and demoralize enemy administrators and police."

"The saboteur may have to reverse his thinking… where he formerly thought of keeping his tools sharp, he should now let them grow dull; surfaces that formerly were lubricated now should be sanded; normally diligent, he should now be lazy and careless," it adds.
According to the report, the group sharing this manual includes diplomats and human-rights professionals who once operated on U.S. government payrolls — supporting Latin American dissidents, aiding African independence movements and even contributing to a successful protest campaign in the Middle East.

We've linked to the 1944 OSS manual a few times:

"Timeless Tips for 'Simple Sabotage'"

It was a Featured Article at the CIA in 2012.

Robobanking: "Barclays cutting 5,000 jobs as it increases reliance on AI"

Not to be confused with Rabo Banking. 

From the BBC, October 22: 

Barclays is cutting around 5,000 staff as it introduces more artificial intelligence (AI) into its work processes.

The banking group said 1,000 posts had already been closed and it expects a further reduction of 4,000 to be complete by the end of this year, amounting to around 5% of its global workforce.

The bank's cost reductions are focused on its UK retail bank, but some back office functions for the UK are done in India, where a significant proportion of the job cuts are expected to fall.

Barclays said the changes were the result of an ongoing modernisation plan, with the use of AI being the "icing on the cake" of its strategy.

Although not all of the cuts are due to AI, their scale will prompt further concern over the impact of the new technology.

Company spending on AI is increasing along with claims new tools can replace some of the basic tasks currently done by staff such as administrative and programming work.

HSBC, Standard Chartered and Danske Bank have also flagged AI-related job cuts this year....

....MUCH MORE 

Ukraine: Zelenskyy ready to freeze war along current front lines

He said the same thing in June, I'm not sure why the idea didn't get more traction/mindshare back then. 

From the very pro-Ukraine RBC-Ukraine, October 21:

Freezing hostilities along the front line is a realistic path toward ending Russia's war against Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, according to Fox News.

A journalist asked the head of state whether he would agree to a peace deal that would freeze everything along the current front line.

"Where you still keep 75% or more of your country, regardless of how it started. Would you accept where it is right now?" the journalist asked.

Zelenskyy answered in the affirmative, noting that a peace deal in this format could indeed stop Russian terror.

"Yes, right now we have to freeze. I think this is a real way to end this war," the Ukrainian president stressed....

....MORE 

Tesla And SpaceX Earnings Call Transcripts (TSLA; SPCX)

First up, from Investing.com, October 21:

Earnings call transcript: Tesla beats Q3 2026 estimates as stock slips after hours 

Tesla posted a modest earnings beat for Q3 2026, reporting adjusted earnings of $0.48 a share on revenue of $28.05 billion, topping Wall Street expectations of $0.45 and $27.92 billion, respectively. The shares rose 3.41% in the regular session to $386.47, but fell 2.22% after hours to $377.88 as investors weighed the company’s improving margins and cash flow against heavy spending plans and a long list of ambitious product targets.

Key Takeaways

  • Tesla beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, though the sales surprise was small.
  • Automotive gross margin excluding credits improved to 18.1% from 16.3% in the prior quarter.
  • The energy business posted its second-best quarter, with 13.7 GWh of deployments and gross margin of 33.1%.
  • More than 75% of North American deliveries included a paid FSD subscription at delivery.
  • Free cash flow stayed positive at more than $1.5 billion, while cash and investments topped $45 billion.

Company Performance
Tesla said Q3 was a strong quarter across several businesses, with record production rates at its factories and two straight quarters of vehicle deliveries above 480,000 units. Management said demand continues to outpace supply, helped by Full Self-Driving, which it described as the main driver of customer interest.

The company also pointed to strength outside the core auto business. Energy storage deployments reached 13.7 GWh, near the high end of Tesla’s recent history, while services and other margins hit an all-time high of 15.9%. That segment benefited from Supercharging, insurance and early Robotaxi activity.

Tesla’s results also reflected a mix of operating strength and non-operating noise. Net income was affected by a $142 million mark-to-market loss on SpaceX holdings, partly offset by a $290 million Bitcoin mark-to-market gain. Even so, the company ended the quarter with more than $45 billion in cash and investments.

Financial Highlights

  • Revenue: $28.05 billion, up slightly from the forecast of $27.92 billion.
  • Earnings per share: $0.48, versus $0.45 expected.
  • EPS surprise: 6.67%.
  • Revenue surprise: 0.47%.
  • Automotive gross margin excluding credits: 18.1%, up from 16.3% in the prior quarter.
  • Energy gross margin: 33.1%, up from 20.4% sequentially.
  • Energy deployments: 13.7 GWh, the company’s second-best quarter.
  • Services and other margin: 15.9%, up from 14.1%.
  • Free cash flow: more than $1.5 billion.
  • Cash and investments: more than $45 billion at quarter-end.
  • Current ratio: 1.94, indicating liquid assets comfortably exceed short-term obligations.
  • Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.19, reflecting Tesla’s conservative capital structure.

Earnings vs. Forecast
Tesla’s $0.48 per-share profit beat the consensus estimate by $0.03, or 6.67%, while revenue came in $130 million above forecast. The earnings beat was more meaningful than the sales beat, since the top-line surprise was relatively small.

The quarter suggests Tesla is still executing better than expected, but not by a wide margin. The result fits a pattern of steady improvement rather than a dramatic upside shock. Investors appeared to reward the report at first, but the after-hours decline suggests some caution about how much of the company’s long-term story is already priced in.

Market Reaction
Tesla shares closed the regular session at $386.47, up 3.41% from the previous close of $373.71. In after-hours trading, the stock fell to $377.88, down 2.22% from the close and about 1.53% below the prior day’s level.

The stock remains well above its 52-week low of $297.38, but still below the high of $498.83. The move suggests investors liked the quarter’s operating trends, especially margin improvement and FSD adoption, but were less certain about the company’s near-term valuation after a strong regular-session move. No unusual volume data was provided.

Outlook & Guidance
Tesla cut its full-year capital expenditure outlook to about $20 billion, down from earlier expectations, and said the spending will be funded mainly through operating cash flow. The company also said it has secured borrowing capacity of up to $30 billion, though it does not plan to draw on it this year.

Looking ahead, Tesla outlined a wide range of product and growth milestones:

  • First customer activation of unsupervised FSD in vehicles is targeted for Q2 2027.
  • Cybercab customer availability is targeted for the end of 2026.
  • Robotaxi expansion to Dallas is planned for the month after the call, with more cities before year-end.
  • 24/7 Robotaxi operation is targeted by year-end 2026.
  • Optimus commercial delivery is still aimed for the end of 2027.
  • Tesla said its Megapack business is nearly sold out for 2027.
  • A research fab for semiconductors is expected in the first half of 2027, with a first test chip targeted for May or June 2027.

Management also said future spending will rise as Tesla expands Robotaxi, Optimus, solar manufacturing and chip production.

Executive Commentary
Chief Executive Elon Musk said demand remains stronger than production capacity. “Demand is growing rapidly for our vehicles. It is exceeding our production by a significant margin,” he said.

Musk also highlighted the role of autonomy in demand. “The biggest driver for demand is Full Self-Driving. Today, there is really no competitor for FSD in any car that you can buy,” he said.

On robotics, Musk repeated his long-term view of the business. “I remain convinced that Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth, and humanoid robots in general will be the biggest product on Earth,” he said.

Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja said the company is seeing strong customer interest in FSD. He said more than 75% of North American deliveries included a paid FSD subscription at delivery, and added that customers in showrooms are now asking for FSD test drives rather than only vehicle test drives.

Risks and Challenges

  • Rising spending: Tesla plans major capital outlays for autonomy, robotics and chip manufacturing, which could pressure near-term free cash flow.
  • Execution risk: The company’s Robotaxi, Optimus and Terafab plans are ambitious and still depend on technical and manufacturing milestones.
  • Regulatory risk: Expansion of FSD and Robotaxi depends on approval from regulators in the U.S. and abroad.
  • Cost pressure: Management cited higher commodity prices and interest rates as ongoing headwinds.
  • Supply chain constraints: Tesla said production is still limited by the least efficient component or process in the system.
  • Valuation risk: With a market cap of $1.48 trillion and trading at high multiples across earnings, revenue and book value, the stock leaves little room for execution missteps.
Q&A
Analysts focused on how fast Tesla can scale Robotaxi, FSD and Optimus, and what those businesses could mean for revenue.

One major topic was Robotaxi expansion beyond Austin. Management said the company plans to launch in Dallas next and expects to scale to other cities using the same software stack. It also said the business is not limited to Austin.

Another focus was FSD. Tesla said the same software used in Cybercab and Model Y will be rolled into customer vehicles, with the first activation targeted for Q2 2027. The company also said it is building its own mapping and navigation system rather than relying on third-party maps.

Questions about Optimus centered on training data, hardware design and timing. Tesla said the hand remains the most difficult part of the robot, while the broader electromechanical system is more mature. The company said a demo video showing non-pre-programmed behavior should arrive within one to two months.

Analysts also asked about Robotaxi economics. Tesla said it is not yet at its target of $0.30 per paid mile, but believes it has a clear path as utilization improves. For Optimus, the company said costs are trending lower as the design matures.

Full transcript - Tesla Inc (TSLA) Q3 2026:....

 ....MUCH MORE

And from Motley Fool Transcribing, October 20: 

SpaceX (SPCX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Revenue surged 161% to $14.6 billion as compute and Starlink subscriber growth accelerated

DATE
Tue, Oct 20, 2026

CALL PARTICIPANTS

  • Head of Investor Relations - Andrea Williams
  • Chief Executive Officer - Elon Musk
  • President and Chief Operating Officer - Gwynne Shotwell
  • Chief Financial Officer - Bret Johnsen
TAKEAWAYS
  • Revenue -- $14.6 billion, up 161% year over year driven by the ramp of cloud services agreements and Starlink subscriber growth.
  • Net Income -- $4.4 billion, representing an improvement of $5.5 billion compared to a net loss of $1.1 billion in the prior year period.
  • Adjusted EBITDA -- $8.8 billion, a 306% increase year over year reflecting operating leverage in the Connectivity and Super Intelligence segments.
  • Super Intelligence Revenue -- $7.6 billion, up from $813 million last year due to the activation of new nameplate compute capacity and the Cursor acquisition.
  • Connectivity Revenue -- $5.2 billion, growing 69% year over year supported by a 57% increase in consumer revenues and a 91% rise in enterprise and government revenues.
  • Space Revenue -- $1.8 billion, a 6% increase year over year anchored by a favorable customer launch mix despite a lower total launch count compared to the prior year.
  • Starlink Consumer Subscribers -- 13.6 million, with 1.6 million net additions in the third quarter primarily from developed markets.
  • Starlink Mobile Users -- 22 million monthly users, a 37% increase quarter over quarter following service expansions in countries such as Uganda and Kazakhstan.
  • Nameplate Compute Capacity -- 1.7 gigawatts, an increase from 1.4 gigawatts in the second quarter as the company continued building out the Colossus II cluster.
  • Capital Expenditures -- $19.6 billion, focused on the buildout of Super Intelligence infrastructure, Starship development, and satellite production.
  • Q4 Capital Expenditure Guidance -- $35 billion to $40 billion, reflecting the accelerated build path for compute infrastructure at sites in Memphis and Southaven.
  • Q1 2027 Revenue Guidance -- $33 billion to $37 billion, based on increased visibility into the compute contract pipeline over the next six months.
  • Starlink Consumer ARPU -- $69 per month, a 5% sequential increase attributed to shifting customer mix dynamics.
  • Cursor Acquisition Contribution -- $608 million in revenue, representing the post-acquisition results from Aug. 14 to Sept. 30.
  • Backlog -- $63 billion, with $42 billion expected to be recognized as revenue within the next 12 months.
  • Enterprise and Government Aviation -- 12,000 aircraft contracted, with over 3,800 planes currently equipped with Starlink hardware as of the end of the quarter.
  • Starship Bandwidth Deployment -- 26 terabits per second, delivered by the Starlink V3 satellites launched during the Flight 14 mission.
  • Mass to Orbit Share -- 90%, representing the company's portion of total global mass launched to orbit during the third quarter.
  • Grok Bot Weekly Users -- 800,000 paid users, more than doubling over the previous month following its launch in August.
  • Compute Nameplate Target -- 2.5 gigawatts to 3 gigawatts, expected to be online by the end of the fourth quarter.
  • 2027 ARR Target -- $500 billion to $1 trillion, representing management's goal for the annualized recurring revenue run rate by the end of 2027.
  • Compute Deployment Pace -- 20,000 GB300 units per month, representing the current rate of bringing new graphics processing units online.
  • Grok Enterprise Growth -- 50% quarter-over-quarter increase in customers with more than $1 million in run-rate revenue on a pro forma basis.
  • Launch Count -- 35 total launches, consisting of 12 customer missions and 23 internal flights during the third quarter.
  • Advertising Revenue -- $538 million, representing a 19% year-over-year increase as the company builds momentum on its new advertising technology platform.

 RISKS

  • Musk warned that the success of the upcoming Flight 15 booster and ship catch is uncertain, noting that while the company has a steady stream of attempts planned, a positive outcome is not assured for the initial flight.
  • Musk stated, "the special committees have not reached agreement on the terms of any transaction. And obviously, there's no guarantee that they will," regarding the possible combination of SpaceX and Tesla.
  • Musk stated, "I think we're going to face a shortage of super intelligence compute. And that shortage is going to remain for a long time," identifying infrastructure and power as primary constraints.
SUMMARY

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX +7.80%) reported a period of significant scaling as management transitioned the company toward a vertically integrated infrastructure provider across launch, connectivity, and super intelligence. The company achieved a record 90% share of global mass to orbit while simultaneously accelerating the deployment of its terrestrial compute clusters to reach 1.7 gigawatts of nameplate capacity. Management stated that the combination of launch leadership, recurring Starlink revenue, and the expansion of Super Intelligence infrastructure is driving meaningful operating leverage. The company is aggressively investing in Starship development and next-generation satellite constellations, with fourth-quarter capital expenditures projected to nearly double sequentially to support the accelerated build path of its compute centers.

  • Management announced the development of the Louisiana spaceport, with Musk stating the facility will eventually include "on the order of 20 or more launch towers" to enable millions of tonnes to orbit annually.
  • The company expects Starship to reach a weekly launch cadence in the first half of 2027, accelerating to twice weekly or higher by the end of that year as rapid reusability is finalized.
  • Musk indicated that the company prefers short-term compute rental contracts at spot market rates, stating, "our belief is that the value of compute per watt will increase over time, not decrease."
  • SpaceX is leveraging its proprietary rocket engine casting technology to manufacture terrestrial turbine components, which Musk claimed allows the company to bring power online 12 to 18 months faster than competitors.
  • Management detailed a multi-year semiconductor road map, aiming for a test chip in mid-2027 and volume production at the Terafab facility by the third quarter of 2028.
  • Gwynne Shotwell reported that aviation production rates have quadrupled since the beginning of the year, with a goal to double that rate again before the end of the year to meet aircraft demand.
  • The company entered into an agreement to acquire 800 megahertz low-band spectrum, which management stated will pave the way for Starlink Mobile to become a major mobile carrier in the United States.
  • INDUSTRY GLOSSARY
    • Starlink V3: The third-generation satellite in the Starlink constellation, delivering significantly higher bandwidth capacity per launch compared to previous versions.
    • Colossus II: The company's massive supercomputing cluster located in Memphis, utilized for training and inference of super intelligence models.
    • Terafab: The planned high-volume semiconductor fabrication facility designed to produce super intelligence chips.
    • Grok Bot: An agentic super intelligence assistant designed for both consumer use and enterprise workflows.
    • GB300: High-performance graphics processing units used in the buildout of super intelligence compute infrastructure.
    • Starfall: A space capsule designed to provide routine, low-cost access to microgravity environments for scientific and medical research.
    • Starmind: A next-generation satellite constellation focused on high-bandwidth super intelligence connectivity.
    • Nameplate Compute: The total theoretical power capacity of a data center or supercomputing cluster, measured in gigawatts.

    Full Conference Call Transcript....

    ....MUCH MORE

    Both stocks are down this morning, half an hour in to the regular trading day TSLA is at $382.465 down $4.005 (1.04%) and SPCX is at $152.34, down $6.97 (4.38%)

    Capital Markets: "Risk Appetites Wane: AI Jitters Returns, European Debt Stress Continues, Oil Firms"

    From Marc to Market:

    Market sentiment is fragile. After earnings helped boost sentiment yesterday, a different set of earnings weakened it today. The broad retreat has seen some signs of risk-off in the foreign exchange market with the yen and Swiss franc leading the major currencies. At the same time, pressures European bond market persist, and the peripheral premiums over Germany are wider. The euro is a laggard and was turned back from about $1.1255 today. Moody’s, which assigns France a credit rating two notches above S&P and Fitch and a negative outlook, will announce the conclusion of its review tomorrow. A downgrade looks inevitable and a two-step catch-up move cannot be ruled out. 

    The US economic calendar is light and participants in the foreign exchange market will be keeping a close eye on equities. Meanwhile, oil prices remain firm and December WTI is bumping around $100 a barrel....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    It was ever thus:

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    French Trades Unions Call For Strike November 5th

    From EuroNews, October 22:

    Disappointed after meeting, French unions call for 5 November action 

     Trade unions, unanimously disappointed after their meeting with the government, are calling for a large mobilisation on 5 November. The CGT's general secretary is urging workers to "generalise the strike".

    Union leaders who met Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu at the Matignon on Wednesday left the nearly two-and-a-half-hour meeting disappointed.

    According to Sophie Binet, head of the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), Sébastien Lecornu did not announce "any measures" to respond to the multiple protests. There was "no consideration of our demands", she lamented.

    The CGT, which took part in the 17 October demonstrations that degenerated into riots and looting in several cities over the weekend, will once again take to the streets on Saturday for the "act II" of the cost-of-living mobilisation announced by a "yellow vest" coordination.

    For the unions, the central objective remains the mobilisation launched by almost all of them among private- and public-sector employees for 5 November. "The time has come to move the mobilisation up a gear; from that date strike action must take over", said Sophie Binet.

    By then, the secretary-general of the French Democratic Confederation of Labour (CFDT, the country’s largest union), Marylise Léon, expects "social responses" to workers’ expectations.

    According to the president of the French Confederation of Christian Workers (CFTC), Cyril Chabanier, the government has nonetheless "opened the door" to "a discussion" on raising the minimum wage. On this issue, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has called for things to "move quickly".

    At Matignon, the unions also regretted that secondary school and student organisations had not been invited to the meeting.

    They are expected to be received again on Monday by the education minister. Édouard Geffray has promised initial measures to respond to the demands expressed on the platform set up by the government. Secondary school pupils have been mobilised for several weeks, with the support of university students, calling for more resources for education, improvements to the state of school buildings, replacement for absent teachers and the scrapping of the Parcoursup platform which handles tertiary education access and is seen as deeply flawed....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    She reminds me of another French activist/politician:

    "Il faut bien que je les suive, puisque je suis leur chef"
    -Ledru-Rollin, 1848

    Schoolboy French translation: "I must follow them for I am their leader.

    As he saw the mob moving past his town house during the Revolution of 1848. 

    "China’s stock market sinks into bear territory as CSI 300 extends 10-week rout"

    Raising the question where are the sellers putting the proceeds?

    Price action says not into precious metals, not into mainland real estate, not into grains or industrial metals. So where are the sellers stashing their newfound liquidity?

    Into cash in the form of currency? 

    From CNBC, October 21: 

    • The index, which tracks 300 of the largest stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has declined for 10 consecutive weeks.
    • Chinese firms have been suffering from declining profit growth amid intense competition that has eroded margins. 

    China’s benchmark CSI 300 index on Thursday entered bear-market territory, falling 20% from its June peak, as a prolonged sell-off in its equities deepens.

    The index, which tracks 300 of the largest stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has declined for 10 consecutive weeks and is down 2.6% so far this week, underscoring sustained pressure on Chinese equities, data from LSEG showed. The index was more than 1% lower Thursday.

    Jordan Cvetanovski, chairman and CIO at Pella Funds, said China’s equity market continues to face structural challenges, particularly as the world’s second-largest economy grapples with the fallout from years of excess capacity and overinvestment.

    “I think China is really struggling with reining in the problems that they’ve had in the past from the overbuild of capacity and other things,” Cvetanovski told CNBC, pointing to challenges facing companies even in globally competitive industries such as batteries — a sector where he still sees select opportunities in China.

    Chinese firms have been suffering from declining profit growth amid intense competition that has eroded margins and even invited the government to step in. In September, the country posted it’s weakest growth in industrial profits this year.

    The world’s second-largest economy also posted its slowest growth in over three years in the second quarter, pressured by a multiyear slowdown in the property sector and extended weakness in consumer demand.

    Shaun Rein, managing director at China Market Research Group, expects further selling pressure as geopolitical uncertainty, concerns over an artificial intelligence bubble and deteriorating consumer confidence weigh on investor sentiment.

    China’s large base of retail investors could also exacerbate market volatility, Rein said, as individual investors are prone to exiting the market faster during periods of uncertainty.

    Unlike major markets such as the New York Stock Exchange, where retail investors account for about 20%-25% of trade volumes, China’s retail investors drive 90% of daily trading, according to data provided by HSBC.

    “For Chinese, it’s about wealth preservation,” Rein said, noting that investors are increasingly favoring safer assets such as time deposits amid a weakening property market and sluggish labor conditions....

    ....MORE 

    Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down 3%, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 down 2.65% and Seoul's KOSPI down 3 1/2%.

    Also at CNBC:

    Critical web security flaws spark global alarm as Google, OpenAI and Amazon respond 

    U.S. pulls diplomats from Saudi Arabia as it reportedly readies Iran strikes after midterms 

    My Spidey Sense is tingling but I'm not sure why. 

    For what it's worth here is the one year chart of CNY/USD at the ICE via TradingView:

     

    The yuan is definitely strong versus the dollar. 

    As the best equity analyst I've ever met once said while looking at a stock chart with a similar pattern:

    "A trend is emerging"

    Wednesday, October 21, 2026

    "Nvidia reveals plans for an AI factory in a shipping container to build data centers in weeks, not months" (NVDA)

    They may be safer than other things people contemplate putting in shipping containers: small nuclear weapons, chemical or biological weapons, really any weapons at all. See Israel's Mossad and Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb.

    I say may be because really, who knows?

    From Yahoo Finance via MSN, October 21:

    Nvidia (NVDA) wants to reduce the time it takes for its customers to start generating revenue from its AI systems.

    At its GTC event in Berlin on Wednesday, the company unveiled its DSX POD, a reference design for an AI data center packed into a box about the size of a standard shipping container.

    Data center construction can take months, if not years, to get up and running. And because they don't start generating revenue until they begin processing AI tokens, the longer a data center takes to come online, the more expenses pile up.

    The DSX POD is meant to serve as a faster, modular solution for companies that need access to data center capabilities sooner rather than later.

    "The moment then you have to install these AI factories, and they're gigantic. And putting these AI factories into service takes months. If we could reduce that months, you know, from the moment that the systems are shipped to the moment that it's deployed and being operational, if we could reduce it from months to weeks or even a month, that will be completely game-changing for all of these AI factories," CEO Jensen Huang told Deirdre Bosa.

    According to Nvidia, the Vera Rubin-powered DSX PODs will arrive on site, ready to be plugged into the power, cooling, and networking infrastructure, reducing deployment time from six months to 14 days....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    And at the company, October 21:

    NVIDIA Introduces DSX POD AI Factories to Accelerate Europe’s Infrastructure Deployment 

    Factory-Built With a Global Ecosystem Including Bull, Dell Technologies, HPE, Lenovo, Schneider Electric and Vertiv, the New Reference Design Speeds Infrastructure Deployment From Months to Weeks, Accelerating Time to First Production Tokens....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    "Researcher: This is the only way to get rid of rats"

    This article is about rodentia. We'll see if we have anything on politicians next week. 

    From Science Norway, October 18:

    Traditional methods are proving inadequate in the fight against rats.  

    "Traditional pest control methods are not particularly good for the environment, human health, or animal welfare," says researcher Heidi Sjursen Konestabo.

    Together with her colleagues at the Department of Pest Control at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH), she has now published a report on measures to combat rats and mice.

    "We have summarised the research and identified what actually works," she says.

    For a long time, both researchers and pest control companies believed that rat poison was the best method. It is now clear that it does not solve the problem in the long run....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Currently the most read article at Science Norway.
    (may be residual displeasure from the fact that the brown rat is also known as the Norway Rat: Rattus Norvegicus)

    And at the top of the front page at Science Norway:

    The Five Foolish Virgins tower over the narrowest point of this strait. What is this monument from the Roman era
    Possibly of interest: 

    The Norwegian Forest Cat (here at Catster):

    https://storage.catster.com/_cache/v1/6abbe1185035ab6754141a777611a3466dc21775.avif 

    "Democrats have a message for Elon Musk: Watch out" (SPCX; TSLA)

    From Politico, October 20:

    From DOGE to Ukraine, the uberwealthy GOP donor could be an irresistible target if House gavels change hands. 

    Democrats are eyeing many targets as they make plans to probe corruption in and around President Donald Trump’s administration should they win control of the House next month.

    Few loom larger than Elon Musk.

    The world’s richest man and nine-figure Republican donor has emerged as a man of intense interest to several potential committee chairs — not to mention scores of rank-and-file Democratic lawmakers — who see multiple fronts for investigations.

    Those include Musk’s whirlwind stint as head of the Department of Government Efficiency, his companies’ multibillion-dollar contracts with the federal government and — most recently — his possible role in throttling crucial internet access to the Ukrainian military as the White House seeks to pressure President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into cutting a peace deal with Russia.

    “What happens when one guy gets a giant contract from the government and then uses it to do something that shuts down communication in a war that has been extremely important to the United States to support Ukraine?” Democratic Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said in an interview. “There’s a lot of different parts of the corruption around Musk.”

    Multiple committees are now gaming out how they will take on Musk next term if Democrats win back gavels, with senior members and aides considering how he fits into the various panels’ jurisdiction. Any number of committees in both chambers could stake a claim to probing a piece of Musk’s dealings with the federal government.

    “We definitely have a lot of questions about Elon Musk’s role in DOGE and it is something we plan to investigate,” said Sara Guerrero, a spokesperson for top Oversight Committee Democrat Rep. Robert Garcia of California.

    Spokespeople for Musk did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

    Some members are not waiting for election results to get started. Democrats on the House Homeland Security Committee demanded last month that Musk testify under oath about a Government Accountability Office report claiming that DOGE overstated its savings, while the House Ways and Means Committee has already called to investigate alleged DOGE-related data theft from Social Security.

    Huge parts of Musk’s dealings with the federal government could come under congressional scrutiny, including the billions of dollars in spaceflight contracts SpaceX holds with NASA as well as the clean-energy subsidies Tesla has reaped.

    But leading Democrats of multiple committees remain fixed on Musk’s five-month rampage through the federal bureaucracy as DOGE leader, in which an estimated 250,000 federal jobs were cut amid allegations of data breaches and illegally withheld congressional spending.

    Rep. Zoe Lofgren of California, the top Democrat on the Space, Science and Technology Committee, which oversees NASA, said her panel has more “to learn about the damage that DOGE inflicted on our science agencies.”

    “Elon Musk and his DOGE cronies stirred up chaos, ruined careers, and played a large role in illegal grant cancellations and firings of civil servants,” she said in a Monday statement.

    “He helped orchestrate the systematic destruction of government programs and services over the last nearly two years,” Lofgren added. “The sheer number of conflicts of interest are astounding.”

    Rep. Greg Meeks of New York, the top Foreign Affairs Committee Democrat, said much the same — calling in a Monday statement for “a full accounting of the damage Mr. Musk and DOGE caused.”

    “The cruel dismantling of USAID, championed by Elon Musk and carried out by Secretary Rubio, saved no taxpayer money, balanced no budget, and made America no safer,” Meeks said, adding that the panel “will not let anyone obstruct our oversight.”....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    It is the cuts to USAID and its transfer to State Department oversight that kicked the hornets nest. Some of the very powerful "six ways from Sunday" constituencies have decided they want that money and they want that control.

    Here's a quick read on a few of the issues that left USAID open to the actions taken thus far:

    OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL
    U.S. Agency for International Development 

    Audit of USAID’s Financial
    Statements for Fiscal Year
    2025  

    Audit Report 0-000-26-004-C
    January 16, 2026

    (87 page PDF) 

    "Opposition to data centers will drive up inflation, says BlackRock’s Larry Fink"

    There's an argument I hadn't seen before.

    From MarketWatch, October 21: 

    BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink doubled down on the importance of building data centers to the health of the U.S. economy, saying not pushing ahead could be inflationary.

    “About two-thirds of the U.S. economy is capital expenditures right now on technology, whether it’s cloud or whether it’s AI, whether it’s just a capex of making sure you’re competitive,” said Fink, speaking to Bloomberg on the sidelines of the Berlin Global Dialogue conference on Wednesday.

    “If we slow down the build out of this technology, I think it really does jeopardize the economy. It means we’re not going to build these. It means we’re building elsewhere,” he said, noting that Canada, India or Abu Dhabi could become alternatives.

    “If we don’t build out these data centers, it is actually more inflationary because the cost to compute is so high right now. And the faster we can build up more data centers, the more compute we have, the faster we can bring down the cost,” he added.

    Hyperscalers in the U.S. alone are talking about $7 trillion to $9 trillion that’s needed to finance that building and keep the U.S. in a leading position on AI, he said.

    That type of funding, on top of financing the federal deficit, is pushing up the term premium — the extra return investors demand to hold longer-term Treasurys — which is bound to keep rising, he said....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    News You Can Use: "....How AI-enabled coups could allow a tiny group to seize power"

    Sure, everyone and his brother are posting on "How to build a Billion-Dollar Business with One Person and AI Agents" but where are you going to find Luttwak updated to the 21st century? Here, that's where.
    (well, originally at the 80,000 Hours pod and then here.) 

    May 3, 2025

    ....Highlights

    "No person rules alone" — except now they might

    Rob Wiblin: What is it structurally about AI as a technology that allows it to facilitate seizures of power by small groups?

    Tom Davidson: The key thing in my mind is that it’s surprisingly plausible that you could get a really tiny group of people — possibly just one person — that has an extreme degree of control over how the technology is built and how it’s used.

    Let me say a few things about why that might be the case. Today there are already massive capital costs needed to develop frontier systems: it costs hundreds of millions of dollars for the computer chips that you’d need. So that means that already there’s only a handful of companies that can afford to get into that game and large barriers to entry.

    And I think that is going to increase as a factor over time, as these initial training runs are getting more and more expensive. And even with the move away from pretraining towards more agentic training like with o1, still we expect that there’s going to be a lot of compute used to generate that synthetic data to train the most capable systems.

    There’s also kind of a broad economic feature of AI that it has these massive economies of scale, which means huge upfront development costs and then very small marginal costs of serving an extra customer. And also, AIs produced by different companies are pretty similar to one another. There are small differences between Claude and GPT-4, but not massive.

    And economically speaking, those features tend to favour a kind of natural monopoly where there’s just one company that kind of serves the whole market. I’m not saying that these economic features will necessarily push all the way to there being just one frontier AI developer, but I think that there are these broad structural arguments to think that there could be a consolidation of that market — like what we’ve seen, for example, in the semiconductor supply chain over previous decades: now only TSMC is able to produce the smallest node chips.

    So those are economic factors. I think there are some political factors that could lead to centralisation of AI development as well. People have raised reasonable national security grounds for centralising AI development. It could allow us to secure AI weights more against potential foreign adversaries. So I think there’s a chance that’s convincing.

    People have also thought it might be good for AI safety to have just one centralised project, so you don’t have racing between different projects.

    There’s also some more AI-specific reasons that you could have a real centralisation in terms of AI development. This idea of recursive improvement, which I talked about last time I was on the podcast, is the idea that at some point — I think maybe very soon — AI will be able to fully replace the technical workers at top AI developers like OpenAI. And when that happens, even if we were previously in a situation where the top AI developer is only a little bit ahead of the laggard, it could be that once you automate AI research, that gap quickly becomes very big — because whoever automates AI research first gets a big speed boost. So even if it seems like there’s multiple projects that are all developing frontier systems, then there could be a year over which actually now there’s only really one game in town, in terms of the very best system.

    So this is all to say that we could very easily end up in a world where there’s just one organisation that is developing this completely general purpose, highly powerful technology.

    Now, you might say that’s OK, because within that organisation there’ll be loads of different people, loads of checks and balances. But there’s actually a plausible technological path to that not being the case, which again relates to how AI could potentially replace the technical researchers at that company.

    So today, there’s hundreds of different people that are involved in, for example, developing GPT-5. And if someone wanted to mess with the way that technology is built, so it kind of served the interests of a particular group, it would be quite hard to do, because there’s so many different people that are part of the process. They might notice what’s happening, they might report it.

    But once we get to a world where it is technologically possible to replace those researchers with AI systems — which could just be fully obedient, instruction-following AI systems — then you could feasibly have a situation where there’s just one person at the top of the organisation that gives a command: “This is how I want the next AI system to be developed. These are the values I want it to have.” And then this army of loyal, obedient AIs will then do all of the technical work in terms of building the AI system. There don’t have to be, technologically speaking, any humans in the loop doing that work. So that could remove a lot of the natural inbuilt checks and balances within one of these — potentially the only developer of frontier AI.

    So pulling that all together is to say that there is a plausible scenario where there’s just one organisation that’s building superhuman AI systems, and there’s actually potentially just one person that’s actually making the significant decisions about how it’s built. That is what I would consider an extreme degree of control over the system.

    And even if there’s kind of an appearance that other employees are overlooking parts of the process, there’s still this risk that someone with a lot of access rights and are able to make changes to the system without approvals could secretly have a side project which does a lot of technical work. And that even if employees are overseeing some parts of the process, it could just be that that side project is able to have a significant influence over the shape of the technology without anyone knowing anymore.

    Rob Wiblin: So I guess the key thing that distinguishes AI or AGI in this case from previous technologies, is the cliche about even dictators, even people who have seemingly enormous amounts of power: no person rules alone.

    Even if you are Vladimir Putin or you’re seemingly controlling an entire country, you can’t go collecting the taxes yourself; you can’t actually hold the guns in the military yourself. You require this enormous number of people to cooperate with you and enforce your power. You have to care about the views of a broader group of people, because they might remove you if they think someone else would serve their interests better.

    Tom Davidson: Exactly.

    The 3 threat scenarios

    Tom Davidson: I distinguish between three broad threat models here, although you can of course get combinations of all three.

    Military coup is where there’s this legitimate, established military, but you subvert it by illegitimately seizing control — maybe using a technical backdoor or convincing the military to go along with your power grab. So that’s the first one: military coups.

    The second one is something I call “self-built hard power,” which is just what it says on the tin: you’re kind of creating your own armed forces and broad economic might that allows you to overthrow the incumbent regime.

    The third one is something that we’ve seen much more recently in more mature democracies, which I’m calling autocratisation. That’s the kind of standard term. The broad story there is that someone is elected to political office and then proceeds to remove the checks and balances on their power, often with a broad mandate from the people who are very discontented with the system as it is.

    Rob Wiblin: So on one level, saying AI is going to enable a military coup or something like that sounds a little bit peculiar, a little bit sci-fi-ish. How sceptical should we be coming into this conversation? Are these things very abnormal or very rare? Or should we think of them as more common than perhaps we do on a day-to-day basis?

    Tom Davidson: Across the second half of the 20th century, across the globe, military coups were very common. There were more than 200 successful military coups. Now, they were predominantly not in the most mature democracies; they tend to be in states that have some elements of democracy, but not kind of full-blown democracy.

    But I do think that with AI technology, there will be new vulnerabilities introduced into the military that could enable military coups — so the historical trend that military coups haven’t happened in democracies may not continue to apply.

    In terms of autocratisation, again, the most extreme cases of autocratisation really leading to full-blown authoritarian regimes haven’t started off in mature democracies like the United States. But for example, in Venezuela, that was a pretty healthy democracy for 40 years before Hugo Chavez came into power with a strong socialist mandate for reform — and then over the next 10, 20 years really pretty much removed all of the checks and balances. And now it’s just widely considered to be an authoritarian regime with just the smallest pretence of democracy today....

    ....MUCH MORE

    Capital Markets: "Euro Pressure Persists"

    From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex: 

    Fears over the AI-meme, which took the semiconductor index down more than 10% last week, has stabilized with the help of favorable earnings by Super Micro Computer and SpaceX. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 14.5% last week amid the anxiety. It rallied 3.3% today and is now higher on the week. On the other hand, the pressure in the European bond market continues. The French 10-year yield is edging closer to 5.00% and the premium over Germany is approached 160 bp. The widening of the peripheral premiums over Germany is seeing the euro underperform. 

    The US and Canadian economic calendars are light today, and the foreign exchange session may take its cues from the stock and bond markets. The firm oil prices are lending support the Norwegian krone. The Australian dollar extended is gains and is at a new high for the month. The faster UK inflation boosted the market’s confidence of a BOE rate hike early next month and sterling is traded at its best level against the euro since May 2025. Tensions in US-Mexican trade talks keep the peso on the defensive. 

    Prices...

    ....MUCH MORE  

    "France's riot damage doubles: How will businesses pay for the destruction?"

    Well, if they had taken the hint from October 5's "Is Your Strikes, Riots & Civil Commotion (SRCC) Insurance Coverage Up-to-Date?"....

    From EuroNews, October 20:

    At least 3,000 French shops were hit over the weekend. Insurers say they are mobilised, but lost trade may not be covered. Here is who pays the riot bill.

    The number of shops damaged during France's weekend riots has reached at least 3,000, twice the figure reported just a day earlier.

    Yet insurers, who are expected to pick up much of the bill, still have no estimate of what the destruction will cost them.

    France Assureurs, the country's insurance federation, told Euronews that its members were "fully mobilised to support affected policyholders".

    It could not provide an initial estimate of losses or say how many claims had been already filed.

    Its crisis team is now working with public authorities across France following what the federation described as "extremely violent events".

    French markets underperform as damage bill rises 
    On Sunday, Carrefour chief executive Alexandre Bompard, who also chairs the FCD retail federation, estimated that around 1,500 shops had been affected.

    He put the industry's losses at several hundred million euros.

    By Monday, the government's count had reached 3,000.

    Carrefour alone reported damage at 50 stores, including 20 that had been looted.

    Financial markets were also under pressure on Monday. France's CAC 40 closed 1.1% lower, underperforming the broader Euro STOXX 600, down 0.9%.

    Carrefour shares lost 2.2%, while luxury group LVMH fell 1.8%. A Louis Vuitton boutique in Marseille was among the stores broken into over the weekend.

    Insurance stocks declined too. AXA shed 1.3% and reinsurer SCOR lost 0.9% in Paris. In Milan, Generali fell 2.3% and Unipol dropped 3.2%.

    French government bonds also came under selling pressure on Monday.

    The yield on the country's 10-year bonds rose by around eight basis points to 4.94%. Germany's equivalent yield increased by less than four basis points.

    That widened the difference between French and German borrowing costs to approximately 148 basis points.

    What the 2023 riots tell us about the cost 
    France has a recent benchmark for what a weekend like this can cost.

    The riots that swept the country in June and July 2023 resulted in €793 million in insured losses, France Assureurs told Euronews.

    Insurers handled around 17,000 claims, averaging roughly €46,600 each.

    Two-thirds of the total, about €523 million, went on shops and business premises. A quarter, close to €200 million, went to local authorities whose town halls, schools and buses had been attacked.

    Cars made up the remaining 7%.

    Even those figures did not capture the full extent of the destruction.

    A subsequent French Senate inquiry estimated property damage at closer to €1 billion. Some losses had never been declared, while others were only partly covered by insurance.

    The comparison is particularly relevant now because the number of shops affected appears to be higher.

    CCI France counted around 2,500 vandalised businesses during the 2023 unrest. This weekend's government tally has already exceeded that figure.

    France's new riot insurance scheme is not ready 
    France sought to address the insurance problems exposed by the 2023 riots in its 2026 budget law....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    As we saw during Covid, business interruption coverage is also important, and sometimes very contentious. If one is so inclined, many of our early links on Business Interruption can be found in October 2020's "BigLaw on Big Insurance: Covid-19 Business Interruption Claims In The UK". 

    If one is not so inclined just think of the boost to French GDP the rebuilding will produce.

    It doesn't do anything for national wealth creation, Bastiat and his window and all that, but as with the falling-down bridges in China, GDP gets goosed. If interested see "That Which is Seen and That Which is Not Seen: Bastiat on Hurricane Sandy" and November 2012's:

    "Frequent Bridge Collapses Help Boost China’s GDP" 

    ...On Aug. 24, a 330-foot long approach ramp of Harbin’s Yangmingtan Bridge fell over, killing three and injuring five. The bridge had been in use less than a year and is the eighth bridge collapse in China this year. The Harbin administration has so far not openly addressed the case.

    Zhao Wenjin, the lead commentator of Lanzhou Daily, commented on the incident, saying, “With each collapse, we need to reflect: why are we chasing GDP?”

    According to a Jingyang Net report, Wang Yang, Party secretary of Guangdong Province, said at a provincial Party meeting in 2009: “Sometimes the GDP number looks good, but it didn’t really create wealth for society. It was, instead, a waste of society’s wealth.

    “For example, building a bridge creates GDP. When the bridge collapses and is taken down, it creates another addition to the GDP. When the bridge is rebuilt, more GDP is created. As such, one bridge resulted in three additions to the GDP. But it was a tremendous waste of resources.”...MORE

    "AI dealmaking startup Rogo eyes 200 hires in Europe push"

    From Financial News, London, October 19:

    The US-headquartered firm is in the midst of an ‘aggressive’ hiring spree in Europe, its leaders tell FN 

    Rogo, the AI startup founded by former dealmakers, is set to expand to more than 200 people in Europe as investment banks and asset managers in the region up their use of the technology.

    The firm, which has gained traction among both boutique and bulge bracket investment banks as they invest in AI, is “aggressively hiring” for its key European hub in London, as well as cities like Copenhagen, Madrid and Paris, according to co-founder and chief operating officer John Willett.

    Willett, who is a former JPMorgan investment banker, said that the firm could have 200-250 employees in the region by the end of 2027.

    Rogo kicked off its European operations with around 15 staff earlier this year, its chief executive Gabe Stengel told Financial News previously.

    “We just started to feel even more of a suction from the market in general and from the European banks. There was a real feeling that the timeline for adoption is just quicker than we’ve seen in any other software cycle,” said Willett.

    “There’s a classic trope that Europe is two years behind the US in terms of tech adoption, but that’s not what I’m seeing. I’m seeing a much smaller gap. I’m seeing firms who are very ambitious, aggressive and wanting to adopt this stuff,” he added.

    • Deutsche Bank puts 200 top bankers through mandatory AI training

    • ‘My avatar is way more interesting than me’: How AI will transform wealth management

    Investment banking is seen as ripe for disruption by AI, particularly junior roles that have been focused on so-called grunt work like correcting PowerPoint presentations or turning comments for senior dealmakers.

    Both Stengel, who worked at Lazard, and Willett have experience of the junior banker lifestyle and the brutal hours required. They conceived the idea for Rogo while they were studying at Princeton University. They left their jobs in 2022 to launch the firm alongside computer scientist Tumas Rackaitis.

    Willett said that the focus on improving junior banker productivity does not give full credit to the scope of the technology, with Rogo building a “self-improving agent workforce” within a bank and each lender’s deal intelligence forming their own “digital firm brain”....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    Britain: "Jackdaw North Sea gasfield to get go-ahead in blow to climate campaigners"

    Not exactly the 1990's 'Dash for Gas'* but still a recognition of political and geopolitical reality. 

    From The Guardian, October 20: 

    Jackdaw gasfield announcement signals UK’s commitment to North Sea industry but undermines green credentials 

    The Jackdaw gasfield will be given the go-ahead on Wednesday, signalling Andy Burnham’s commitment to the North Sea fossil fuel industry and threatening to trigger a row with climate campaigners and Labour MPs.

    Miatta Fahnbulleh and John Healey, the energy secretary and chancellor respectively, will make the announcement from Aberdeen on Wednesday morning after more than a year of deliberations over whether doing so would violate the UK’s climate commitments.

    The approval for drilling at one of the biggest undeveloped fields in the declining North Sea basin is a big boost for Britain’s oil and gas industry – and especially for Shell and the Norwegian company Equinor, which operate it.

    It will be met with outrage from climate campaigners, who say it undermines Labour’s green credentials and will exacerbate the climate crisis.

    Tessa Khan, the executive director of the anti-oil campaign group Uplift, said: “Jackdaw will provide around just 2% of our gas demand for roughly 10 years. It has been oversold and won’t stop the overall decline in North Sea jobs, as it will be largely unmanned and operated remotely.”

    She added: “Labour’s climate credibility is on the line. No new oil and gasfields are compatible with safe climate limits.”

    When fully operational, Jackdaw will account for 6% of North Sea gas production, making it one of the biggest gasfields not yet under production.

    Along with the Rosebank oilfield, its status has become symbolic of the government’s commitment to the oil and gas industry, which is facing heavy job losses as reserves decline and platforms become increasingly automated.

    The field was approved by the Conservative government in 2022, with ministers arguing it would help shield the UK from the volatility in the energy market caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Labour came to power in 2024 on a promise not to grant any new licences in the North Sea, not expecting to have to make a decision on Jackdaw or Rosebank.

    However both fields were cast into doubt last year by a landmark ruling that said their environmental approval had been incorrectly granted.

    A judge ruled that when deciding whether the two fields would violate the UK’s climate commitments, regulators should have taken into account the carbon emissions generated by burning the oil and gas they would produce.

    Shell and Equinor resubmitted their application for environmental consent last September. Since then, Fahnbulleh and her predecessor, Ed Miliband, have spent months deciding whether to use their ministerial power to block it.

    Both the prime minister and his predecessor, Keir Starmer, have come under heavy pressure to allow the fields to go ahead in recent months, not least from Donald Trump, who urged both men to “open up the North Sea”....

    ....MUCH MORE 
    Environmental Capital has a post that I couldn't resist commenting on: 
    Baseline Play: Cut Emissions Compared With When, Exactly?
    ...Those emissions targets for the rich world take 1990 as the “baseline” year, just as the Kyoto Protocol does. That is, cuts will be measured against what the world was emitting in 1990. But that baseline isn’t set in stone: As the WSJ notes today, “The parties could however decide to use another base year.”

    It’s a contentious point. U.S. emissions targets use 2005 as the base year. President Obama, for instance, speaks of curbing emissions 17% from 2005 levels by 2020. That upsets Europe, because it translates into a much smaller cut—between 3% and 5%–from 1990 levels.

    What’s in a number? Quite a lot, actually. As Geoff Styles notes, 1990 was a very different world than 2005: A lot of things happened in the meantime, from globalization, the rise of China and India, the decline of Europe, shifts in fuels used for power generation, and so forth.

    Europe likes 1990 as a starting point, because the continent’s economies were a lot dirtier then. Russia, especially, likes 1990 because back then the big, dirty Soviet economy was still around (ditto, to a lesser extent, for the rest of Eastern Europe).

    It’s easier to make cuts against the bloated past than the cleaner present. Some of Europe’s progress toward meeting its Kyoto targets, for instance, can be chalked up to clean policies in the meantime; but much of the progress simply comes from an easy comparison with a dirtier time....MORE

    Pretty wonky but I had to get my two cents in:

    • Climateer wrote:

    As is the case with so much of this stuff, from carbon trading to wind (GE got in the biz by buying ENE’s wind ops) to nat gas to enriching the lobbyist sector of the economy to fraud on the markets Enron was there first.
    Mr. Styles mentions, en passant, Britain’s ‘Dash for Gas” in the early ’90’s to take advantage of the North Sea natural gas finds.
    One hulking big example is the 1875 MW Teesside generating plant.
    Enron owned it.
    Because of it’s 1993 operational date vs.the 1997 Kyoto agreement to use 1990 as a baseline, that one plant cut Britain’s emissions 1% vs the baseline.
    The U.S. Kyoto delegation agreed to the 1990 date only on condition that Europe would agree to back Enron’s carbon trading proposals.
    Amazing stuff.
    As John Palmisano said in his infamous email ”Implications of the Climate Change Agreement in Kyoto & What Transpired”:
    “If implemented [the Kyoto Protocol] will do more to promote Enron’s business than will almost any other regulatory initiative outside of restructuring of the [electricity] and natural gas industries in Europe and the United States….”
    And:
    “…This agreement will be good for Enron stock!!”

    Amazing stuff.
    Here’s the email:
    http://www.politicalcapitalism.org/enron/121297.pdf [link rotted here's a capture at the Internet Archive]

    I've been thinking about Enron as the senate debates the Cap-and-trade bill. Here's one of my favorite Enron posts (I'll post more of them next week):....

    And July 2014 - Remember the 'Dash for Gas' and North Sea Oil? "UK became a net importer of petroleum products in 2013"

    It's been 20 years since Enron opened the Teesside power station.
    Time flies...

    "SpaceX’s AI business is beating expectations" Stock Jumps (SPCX)

    From TechCrunch, October 20:

    SpaceX’s data centers and Grok agents were more profitable than investors expected in the third quarter of the year, as the company leaves its roots as a space company behind to focus on artificial intelligence, which now makes up 52% of its income.

    CEO Elon Musk’s deep tech conglomerate reported $14.6 billion in third-quarter revenue on Tuesday, according to its regulatory filing.

    That number was driven by growth in all segments, but especially its renamed “Super Intelligence” business line, which generated $7.5 billion in revenue from the recently acquired Cursor coding tool, Grok bot, and most importantly, the company’s burgeoning neocloud business, which now boasts 1.7 GW of compute. The AI business generated $431 million in profit, which would have been higher without $1.2 billion in one-time stock-based compensation expenses related to the Cursor acquisition.

    The top-line revenue number was also boosted by about $1 billion in income related to the recovery of Bitcoin prices and unspecified related-party income that might be attributed to a SpaceX investment in another company.

    The growing revenue is balanced against total capital expenditures of $19.6 billion, as SpaceX continues to build out a second data center project, Colossus II, and increase investment in Starship, the heavy-lift rocket it sees as vital to deploying a new generation of Starlink satellites and developing orbital data centers. CFO Bret Johnsen said the company would spend $35 billion to $40 billion on new capital investments in the fourth quarter.

    During a livestreamed discussion of the results with investors, Musk said he was spending four days a week in Memphis, Tennessee, the site of Colossus II, working to bring the data center online.

    “People are starting to realize [that] the constraint on deployment of super intelligence is more in power and cooling and infrastructure than it is in chips,” Musk argued, saying that he had tasked a team of SpaceX engineers to solve that problem. “This is a bit like the New York Yankees playing in Little League. It’s not fair, but the net result is being able to deploy power cooling infrastructure at a rate that is vastly faster than any anyone else.”....

    ....MUCH MORE 

    In early pre-market trade the stock is up $13.92 (+9.42%) at $161.71.  

    "Battery giant CATL posts surprise profit slowdown, mainland China shares tumble over 10%"

    From Hong Kong's South China Morning Post, October 20/21:

    CATL’s profits slowed sharply in the third quarter, as analysts warn the firm is vulnerable to headwinds in China’s electric car industry 

    Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Limited (CATL) extended its stock price rout after recording a surprise slowdown in third-quarter net profits, as analysts warned the company could be hit by slowing demand from China’s electric car industry next year.

    The world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) battery maker saw its shares continue to tumble by over 10 per cent in Shenzhen and 8.6 per cent in Hong Kong in the morning session on Wednesday.

    The Fujian province-based firm posted a net profit of 21.25 billion yuan (US$3.18 billion) for the July-September period, up 14.54 per cent from a year earlier, according to an exchange filing on Tuesday.

    The increase marked a sharp slowdown from the 36 per cent jump recorded in the second quarter of the year and a peak of 57 per cent in the final quarter of 2025.

    The company’s third-quarter revenue grew 58.58 per cent year on year, reaching 165.22 billion yuan.

    Both the earnings and revenue figures missed analysts’ consensus forecasts of 26.03 billion yuan and 175.05 billion yuan, respectively.

    CATL’s shares slumped 6.58 per cent to HK$411.80 in Hong Kong and 2.97 per cent to 259.08 yuan in Shenzhen on Tuesday, before the earnings results were announced.

    The company’s stock price has plunged since Chinese EV makers Xiaomi and Li Auto announced they were partnering with tier-two battery manufacturers in September, with CATL’s shares down over 20 per cent in Hong Kong and 31 per cent in Shenzhen since the start of the year.

    On Tuesday, JPMorgan lowered its rating of CATL’s Hong Kong-traded shares to neutral, as the bank is increasingly worried about a faster-than-expected deterioration of profitability in the Chinese EV industry, which could affect demand for CATL’s batteries....

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