Sunday, October 13, 2024

"Commodities Steady as China Pledges More Support for Growth"

Today's upmoves (CSI 300 up 1.5% etc.) almost feel like a collective sigh of relief from speculators that the MoF briefing didn't go horribly wrong. As the Rock man told Oblio in the Land of Point:

"Say babe , isn't nuthin' pointless about this game. The thing is, you see what you wanna see - and you hear what you wanna hear. You dig? Did you ever see Paris?"
"No."
"Did you ever see New Delhi?"
"No."
"Well that's it. You see - what you want to see and you hear - what you want to hear."
And with that, the rock man fell soundly asleep...

Words to incorporate into your Weltanschauung, words to live by. 

From Bloomberg via Malaysia's The Edge, October 13/14:

Commodities prices steadied after China promised greater support for its stuttering economy.

Although the finance ministry stopped short of unveiling concrete spending plans for fiscal stimulus at a closely watched briefing on Saturday, investors were reassured by its pledges to shore up growth. They include more help for the crisis-wracked property sector — a keystone of commodities demand in China — and heavily indebted local authorities, as well as hints that government borrowing will be expanded.

Iron ore futures in Singapore reversed an early decline to rise 0.4% to US$106.60 (RM457.69) a tonne in Singapore as of 10:02am. local time. Prices of the steel-making material have been on a roller-coaster this year, climbing above US$140 a tonne in January, before sinking below US$90 last month.

The copper market has followed a similar trajectory, hitting a record north of US$11,000 a tonne in May before retreating. The three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange pared losses to trade 0.9% lower at US$9,707 a tonne. Brent crude oil futures fell 1.5%, after dropping as much as 2% earlier. China is the world’s biggest importer of all three commodities.

The ministry showed “a very positive commitment” to following up on previously announced policies, said Li Xuezhi, head of Chaos Ternary Research Institute. “We are relatively bullish,” he said.

Metals have rallied in recent weeks, after Beijing launched a barrage of monetary interventions to support growth. But commodities investors have clamoured for further measures on the fiscal side of the equation, which has a more direct impact on consumption of materials, and is needed to replace demand lost to China’s prolonged real estate slump.

As such, the government’s focus on plans to right the property sector will be welcomed by markets, not only through demand for raw materials but because housing is such an important store of wealth for Chinese people.

Housing crisis
The housing crisis has of necessity shrunk the sector’s importance to Chinese steel mills, with construction accounting for 24% of consumption in 2023, from 42% in 2011, according to mining giant BHP Group Ltd. Machinery-making by contrast has gone from 20% to 30% in that time, while steel exports have risen sharply over the past two years....