Friday, October 11, 2024

"Tesla robotaxi event was long on promises, but investors wanted more details" (TSLA)

In early pre-market trade the stock is down $13.99 (-5.86%) after closing down $2.28 (-0.95%) on Thursday. $224.78 last.

From Reuters via MSN, October 11:

For a businessman who perpetually struggles with broken promises, Elon Musk gave himself quite a to-do list Thursday night at Tesla's long-awaited Hollywood unveiling of its driverless robotaxis.

After traversing the fake streets of the Warner Bros movie studio set in a sleek, silver two-door "Cybercab" prototype, Musk promised that the company's popular Model 3 and Model Y vehicles would be able to operate without driver supervision in California and Texas by next year.

He said the company would start building the fully autonomous Cybercab by 2026 at a price of less than $30,000, and showed off a robovan capable of transporting 20 people around town - products he said would reshape cities by "turning parking lots into parks."

Later came the dancing humanoid robots that also mixed drinks at the bar. Tesla will sell those, too, Musk said, eventually for $20,000 to $30,000 a piece. "I think this will be the biggest product ever, of any kind," he declared.

Thursday night's electronic dance music-infused event had the signature trappings of Musk's salesmanship, but some Tesla investors and experts said they were hoping for more concrete details on how the company plans to transform from an automaker into an autonomous driving and artificial intelligence titan with a solid business plan.

Tesla shares fell 5% in premarket trading on Friday.

"His vision is lovely, but somebody has to actualize it," said Ross Gerber, a Tesla shareholder and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management. "For now, for the next 24 months, Tesla has to sell EVs. Why aren't we focused on that?"

Gerber said he was happy to see products like the Cybercab and the robovan, but hoped to also see a more traditional, lower-priced mass-market vehicle that the company could sell in the near future.

Musk had for years pledged to sell a car expected to start at about $25,000, a promise that investors saw as critical to winning new customers. Reuters reported exclusively on April 5 that Tesla had abandoned this project, initially sending Tesla shares down. Musk responded by posting later that day on X that Tesla would unveil a robotaxi on Aug. 8, which was later delayed to October.

'YEARS BEHIND'

Tesla is aiming to leapfrog incumbent self-driving players, including Alphabet's Waymo, by pursuing a lower-cost technological path that Musk believes will allow the company to scale up its autonomous vehicles far quicker than rivals.

Tesla's strategy is simpler and much cheaper than that of its rivals, but has critical weaknesses. Chief among those is that the AI technology underpinning its self-driving system makes it nearly impossible to pinpoint why a crash or other failure occurred - something that could concern regulators.

"Tesla software is at least years behind where Waymo is. That's the hard part. No flashy vehicle design is going to change that," said Matthew Wansley, professor at New York's Cardozo School of Law.

Tesla's rivals use similar AI and camera technology, but layer on so-called redundant systems and more-expensive sensors as a safety precaution....

....MUCH MORE

Our thoughts on the robotaxi, from October 2's "Tesla sinks as Q3 deliveries fall short" (TSLA)":

...Deliveries will be in-line this month and the next few months and the robotaxi unveil will be written up as a bust. The people who write the headlines hate Elon Musk and nothing he does will ever, ever change that. The financial question is: will the self-driving taxis be contributing to sales and earnings in two years?....  

For what it's worth the deliveries "miss" was

...Tesla reported 462,890 deliveries and 469,796 vehicles produced in Q3 2024. Analysts, based on FactSet StreetAccount estimates, had expected 463,310 deliveries for the quarter ending September 30. 

Missed it by 420 vehicles.

Which could be Musk doing the "420" thing again.

Just kidding.