Friday, October 11, 2024

Capital Markets: "Tomorrow's China Briefing Did Not Prevent the Continued Slide in Chinese Stocks Today"

Nope. And after the head of China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) declined trader's pleas to inject stimulus directly into their P&L statements a lot of big money decided it is not worth the potential upside to be caught long over the weekend should the Finance Minister also fail to hook-up the sweet, sweet stimmy IVs.

From Marc to Market:

Overview: The combination of the firmer than expected US CPI and larger than expected rise in initial and continuing jobless claims saw short-term US rates fall, and the odds of a quarter-point cut by the Fed rose from about 83% to about 93%. The Fed funds futures market boosted the odds of another quarter-point cut in December (~90% vs.78%). The dollar initially weakened but recovered, though the key levels held, such as $1.09 in the euro, $1.30 in sterling, $0.6700 in the Australian dollar, and CAD1.38. The greenback is trading with a mostly heavier bias today. Among the G10 currencies, only the Canadian dollar and yen are softer. Among emerging market currencies, only the Indian rupee and Turkish lira are lower.

Equities struggled in Asia Pacific. Japanese markets were mixed, while nearly all the other large markets were lower, including a nearly 2.8% drop in China's CSI 300. Hong Kong markets were closed for a local holiday. Taiwan was closed yesterday, and the main benchmark rallied more than 1% today. The Stoxx 600 in Europe is practically flat and US index futures are trading lower. Benchmark 10-year yields are 2-4 bp higher in Europe and the 10-year US Treasury yield is up three basis points to 4.09%. Gold forged a shelf near $2600 in the past three session and reached $2647 today before consolidating. The week's high was set Monday near $2660. November WTI is consolidating within yesterday's range. Recall that Tuesday-Wednesday, it traded in a wide range (~$71.50-$78.50). It settled near $74.40 last week, reflecting a 9.1% rally. At $75.25, November WTI is up about 1.2% this week, poised for its highest weekly close in nearly three months.

Asia Pacific...

....MUCH MORE