He's right. In fact there is some concern that monthly and Year-over-Year inflation itself could reanimate as soon as the report in November. Should this come to pass we will lead with Doctor Frankenstein's: "It's Alive!"
From Marc to Market:
Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer ahead of the September CPI. The euro and Canadian dollar have recorded new lows for the move. The greenback extended its gains against the yen to JPY149.55 but has fallen to new session lows in the European morning near JPY148.85. Given the pushback against Fed Chair Powell's 50 bp cut last month revealed in the FOMC minutes, it will take more than a soft headline CPI today to renew speculation of another large move. In fact, the Fed funds futures, which a week ago was discounting about a 50% chance of another half-point cut is now pricing in about an 83% chance of a quarter-point cut. There are 44 bp of easing discounted for this year down from about 67 bp a week ago. Three Fed officials speak in the North American morning (Cook, Barkin, and Williams) but their views are known. The US Treasury sells $185 bln in bills today and $22 bln of 30-year bonds.
The PBOC's CNY500 bln swap facility for institutions to buy equities has formally been launched, and speculation ahead of Saturday's briefing by Finance Minister Lan helped lift Chinese stocks (CSI 300 rose about 1% and the index of mainland shares that trade in HK rose nearly 3.5%). The other large bourses in the region also rose after the S&P 500 rose new record highs yesterday. The Stoxx 600 in Europe and US index futures are softer. Bond markets are under modest selling pressures. European yields are firmer, with a four-basis point jump in Gilt yield to a new three-month near 4.22%. The presentation of the French budget later today could impact tomorrow. Gold is firm and appears to have carved a shelf near $2600. November WTI is consolidating in the upper end of yesterday's range amid ongoing risks that the war in the Middle East escalates....
....MUCH MORE
