File under: Things I did not expect. (it's a big file)
From The Daily Mail, June 26/27:
Trump has 'outsmarted all of us' admits backpedaling economist who bashed President's bold plan
A world-renowned economist has changed his tune on President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Torsten Sløk, a chief economist at Apollo Global Management, posted a new note admitting that his initial reaction to the policy may have been wrong.
'Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us,' he wrote.
The admission comes just months after Sløk warned the tariffs would be ‘painful’ and economically destabilizing.
Experts speaking to DailyMail.com warned that Americans should take his note with a grain of salt.
But now, he's framing the President’s policy as a clever long-game — one that invites global negotiation while increasing federal revenue.
In the note, Sløk outlined a potential scenario: the White House could maintain its current tariff rates — 10 percent on most imports, 30 percent on Chinese goods — and give trade partners a year to negotiate with the White House.
Extending the current 90-day pause on new tariffs, he argued, would give American companies time to plan ahead and could help stabilize markets.
'This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers,' he added.
The timing is key. Trump's 90-day pause on new tariffs, announced in April, is set to expire on July 9.
Without an extension, the tariffs would immediately increase, with billions of dollars worth of products suddenly incurring more taxes.
But if the President extends the pause but keeps tariffs where they are, Sløk says the policy could offer clarity for companies and leverage in negotiations.
Sløk's sudden, tepid support for the tariffs is an about-face. He initially criticized the import taxes, saying they threatened business stability, Wall Street's record highs, and the stability of US treasury bonds.
'The short-run effects of a trade war [are] certainly painful,' the economist told Yahoo Finance in February.
And not everyone is convinced. Neil Saunders, a retail expert at GlobalData, warned that they will mostly impact American consumers.
'Tariffs, at any level, increase the cost of doing business,' he told DailyMail.com. 'If tariff rates remain at current levels, prices should only increase modestly – although these hikes will come off the back of years of pretty hefty inflation.'....
....MUCH MORE
