Their last estimate of current quarter GDP was running at 5.4%
From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, January 29:
....Latest estimate: 4.2 percent — January 29, 2026
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent on January 29, down from 5.4 percent on January 26. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 7.1 percent was more than offset by decreases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.2 percent to 3.1 percent and the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth from 1.88 percentage points to 0.65 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, February 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
....MUCH MORE
As we've been saying, for almost as long as the Bank's economists have been posting these guesstimates:
The estimate hit 5.4% growth after the last trade deficit numbers, January 8, declined to +5.1% in the next update and is now at 5.3%. The general rule-of-thumb (derived from far too many observations) is that GDPNow runs hot and gradually converges to the reported GDP figures.
That was a couple weeks ago.
And four years ago:
Keeping in mind that Atlanta's GDPNow runs hot and tends to decrease as we approach the report date, in this case, BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) April 28, 08:30 AM
