From The Economist, January 26:
Fading ambition may pose a bigger problem
China is limbering up for its annual great migration, when hundreds of millions take cars, planes and, above all, trains to reunite with family for the lunar new year. It is a joyous time. This year, however, there is concern that rural folk who normally work in cities may stay in the countryside after the holiday because the jobs they do—especially on building sites and in factories—are getting harder to find. In November China’s rural-affairs ministry sounded a warning. It declared that the government must “prevent a large-scale” problem of migrants “sticking around” in their home villages.It is rare for officials to voice concerns that bluntly, so the ministry’s statement caused a stir. To get a sense of what is actually happening, Chaguan recently travelled to a couple of places that traditionally have been big sources of outbound migrant workers. The government’s concerns appear to be overblown. On balance, jobs and opportunities will lead most migrants back to cities after the new year. Yet attitudes are shifting in ways that will trouble officials gunning for economic growth.
The new-year holiday happens to fall in mid-February. But signs of the approaching human wave are already visible. On a bright chilly afternoon, Mr Zhao stands in front of a railway station with an overstuffed suitcase and a white bucket for carrying tools. For the past ten months he worked laying tiles in Nanjing, a wealthy eastern city, and is heading to his home village in Henan province, 400km farther inland. The wiry 60-year-old explains why he began his journey a full month before the start of the holiday. “There were just no more jobs,” he says. He laments how his monthly income had fallen, from about 9,000 yuan ($1,290) a few years ago to 5,000 yuan. Nevertheless, after the holiday he expects to return to Nanjing.
His decision to go home early may seem nothing new. When the global financial crisis devastated China’s export sector in 2008, migrants returned to their rural homes en masse. The countryside was a safety valve: workers had negligible welfare support but could farm small plots of land until the economy roared back, as it did after massive stimulus.
There are crucial differences this time. The economic downshift feels more permanent. Weakness in the property sector looks likely to persist, reducing the construction jobs that had absorbed many migrants. At the same time the countryside no longer provides much of a backstop. Many rural citizens such as Mr Zhao have relinquished their land-use rights, leasing them to others who have stayed behind. In 2008 less than 10% of rural households had contracted out their land rights; today the figure is closer to 40%. The peril of sticking around in the countryside was laid bare early in the covid pandemic when restrictions on movement trapped many migrants back in their hometowns for months with little to do.
Not far from Mr Zhao’s village is Zhoukou, a midsized city. In a shopping mall, the government is running an office to help people find local jobs. The woman behind the desk says the number of people coming home has surged over the past month because export factories in coastal regions have closed early. She says she can connect them with temporary gigs as delivery drivers but that is about it....
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