From Barron's, January 23:
President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky met in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday to discuss an end to Russia’s war. No concrete plans were drawn up, but both leaders emerged optimistic about their progress. Attention should now turn to what peace might bring—not just for security, but for business. When the fighting stops, the most promising opportunities for U.S. companies won’t be in Russia, but in Ukraine.
President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky met in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday to discuss an end to Russia’s war. No concrete plans were drawn up, but both leaders emerged optimistic about their progress. Attention should now turn to what peace might bring—not just for security, but for business. When the fighting stops, the most promising opportunities for U.S. companies won’t be in Russia, but in Ukraine.
At first glance, Russia might seem the more attractive market. It has 140 million people, a $2.2 trillion economy, and vast natural resources. But even after hostilities subside, political and commercial risks will remain high and the range of investment opportunities therefore narrow.
Ukraine’s outlook is far brighter. In terms of real gross domestic product, Ukraine’s economy is still more than 20% below its prewar level. But once a durable cease-fire takes hold, it will become one of the world’s most dynamic emerging economies.
In the immediate aftermath of the war, Ukraine will become the site of the largest reconstruction project since World War II. The World Bank estimates more than $500 billion will be spent in the country over the next decade.
One of Ukraine’s strongest opportunities will be its defense technology—an area where engagement with Russia, which relies on China for its defense materials, offers little to the U.S. Ukraine has become a global model for defense technology innovation. Ukrainian firms are already partnering with U.S. companies to develop prototypes of one-way, long-range unmanned aerial systems.
Ukraine’s economic record after its independence in 1991 was arguably the worst of all the former Soviet Union’s former member states. In 2013, before former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was removed from office, the country’s business environment was mired by “complex tax and customs codes, byzantine laws, and regulations, poor corporate governance, weak enforcement of contract law…and official corruption,” according to a U.S. Department of State report.
Ukraine has since made reforms to improve its investment climate. It restructured its banking system, closing banks that accounted for more than one-third of banking assets and recapitalizing others. Reforms to gas pricing and management resulted in the state-owned gas company, Naftogas, paying 1% of GDP into Ukraine’s budget in 2019. That helped reduce the government’s stubborn budget deficit....
....MUCH MORE
If interested see also:
A few years ago I would have taken even-money on Natalie Jaresko being the person to represent BlackRock, JP Morgan et al.
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Related:
June 2023 - Big Money: BlackRock and JPMorganTo Set Up Ukraine Reconstruction Bank (BLK; JPM)
March 2024 - How Much To Rebuild Ukraine? Half-a-Trillion Is The Opening BidDecember 2025 - "BlackRock’s Larry Fink joins Trump team talks to rebuild Ukraine"
And Natalie?
February 2023 - "Marketing Ukraine's Reconstruction To Fuel The War"
If you want in on the action, get to know this woman:...
A knock against Mme. Jaresko is she would obviously be representing the Chicago crowd, Pritzkers, Crowns and other Barack Obama backers, and though Jamie Dimon was probably okay with it I don't know if Larry Fink, now also interim co-chairman of the World Economic Forum would have signed off.
So Natalie is presently running the Aspen Institute's Kyiv operation.
That 'marketing reconstruction' post above back-links to some of her actions when she served as Ukraine's Finance Minister, 2014 - 2016 which coincidentally were also linked in January 1's "Ukraine bonds at post-restructuring highs as investors see some progress in peace talks".
