The world runs on diesel. And its price feeds into just about everything.
From OilPrice, January 22:
- Global diesel crack spreads surged from $16.7/bbl in early January 2025 to $34.17/bbl in November, before easing as Russian supply recovered, with cracks averaging $21.7/bbl in January 2026 so far.
- Russian diesel exports rebounded to around 900,000 b/d in December (after falling to a five-year low of 590,000 b/d in September), as refinery runs recovered from 5.0 to 5.5 million b/d.
- The return of discounted Russian diesel reshaped global trade flows, with shipments to Brazil rebounding tripling month-on-month to 181,000 b/d in December.
Russian diesel has moved from being the main bullish factor in global middle-distillate markets in 2025 to an overwhelmingly bearish force by early 2026, reversing a year-long surge in refining margins. The European diesel crack spread rose from $16.7/bbl in early January 2025 to $34.17/bbl in November as Russian supply – already structurally weakened since the start of the war – slid into acute shortage. That squeeze has now eased with the diesel crack spread averaging $21.7/bbl in January 2026. Refinery repairs, recovering runs and a rebound in diesel exports – which returned to around 900,000 b/d in December – have pushed Russian diesel back into the market, softening cracks before the onset of EU sanctions on January 21 briefly firmed them again. The renewed Russian diesel flows have reshaped trade routes again, triggering a sharp revival of Russian diesel shipments to Brazil despite earlier pullbacks, underscoring both Russia’s growing resilience to refinery attacks and the limits of sanctions pressure when discounted fuel meets persistent demand.
The rise in diesel crack spreads through most of 2025 was driven in large part by a sharp contraction in Russian exports, which fell to a five-year low of 586,000 b/d in September. The tightening was shock-driven rather than gradual. It began in January with a Ukrainian drone strike on the Ryazan refinery – a 13.1 Mtpa plant accounting for about 5% of national refining capacity – and persisted through the year as repeated attacks disrupted refining. Pressure intensified in autumn, culminating in a record 14 drone strikes in November alone, including a hit on the Afipsky refinery near Krasnodar, a 9.1 Mtpa facility. In total, media reports indicate more than 20 refineries were affected in 2025, with some estimates suggesting around 20% of national capacity was offline at various points due to strikes or maintenance. Refinery runs reportedly fell to about 5 million b/d in September, prompting Russia to impose partial restrictions on diesel shipments and introduce a temporary export ban for non-producing companies in September 2025, later extended through March 2026....
....MUCH MORE
