The flash (initial) estimate for Q3 2025 was 4.3 percent, released December 23, 2025.
From the Bureau of Economic Analysis, January 22:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the updated estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.
Due to the recent government shutdown, this updated report for the third quarter of 2025 replaces the release of the third estimate originally scheduled for December 19, 2025.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports were revised up. For more information, refer to the “Technical Notes” below....
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