The estimate hit 5.4% growth after the last trade deficit numbers, January 8, declined to +5.1% in the next update and is now at 5.3%. The general rule-of-thumb (derived from far too many observations) is that GDPNow runs hot and gradually converges to the reported GDP figures.
From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, January 14:
Latest estimate: 5.3 percent — January 14, 2026
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.3 percent on January 14, up from 5.1 percent on January 9. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and fourth-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 3.0 percent, 4.8 percent, and 1.3 percent, respectively, to 3.1 percent, 5.1 percent, and 1.6 percent.
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