From The Watchers, January 11:
La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific show signs of a transition toward ENSO-neutral conditions, with potential for El Niño development later in 2026. Observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) show subsurface ocean warming and westerly wind anomalies across the central Pacific, indicating the breakdown of the three-year La Niña phase.
Subsurface and surface observations across the equatorial Pacific suggest that the La Niña episode dominating the global climate since 2023 is weakening. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts show the Niño 3.4 region, a key ENSO indicator, has warmed toward the −0.5°C, the threshold of transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions.
Westerly wind bursts along the equator have disrupted the easterly trade-wind pattern, allowing deeper, warmer water to surface and spread eastward....
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