Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Real Estate: China Evergrande Reports Very Large Loss, Auditors Give Going Concern Heads-Up

Very large.

For the two years covered by the report the company reported a loss attributable to shareholders equivalent to $81 billion.

I can't recall anyone losing $81 billion.

Whether over one year. Or two years. Or three. That's a very large loss.

Here are the gory details from Reuters, July 18:

Evergrande's liabilities, depleted coffers raise business viability concerns

China Evergrande Group's (3333.HK) huge liabilities and diminishing cash disclosed in its long-overdue reports for the past two years raises questions about the viability of its restructuring plan and operations, creditors and analysts said.

A comment from Evergrande's auditor that it did not express an opinion on the reports due to material uncertainties over the embattled property developer's ability to continue as a going concern has further stoked worries, they added.

"The financial statements provide little evidence the group can normalise operations after a debt restructure," said Charles Macgregor, head of Asia of Lucror Analytics.

Evergrande slipped into a liquidity crisis in mid-2021. With one of the largest debt piles in the country, its debt problem has rippled through China's property sector, a pillar of the world's second-largest economy, leading to a string of defaults and uncompleted homes across the nation.

The firm announced an offshore debt restructuring plan in March, expecting it to facilitate a gradual resumption of operations and generation of cash flow. It is now gathering creditor support to complete the process.

Evergrande on Monday reported a combined loss of $81 billion for 2021 and 2022. Its total liabilities amounted to 2.4 trillion yuan ($335 billion) last year, up 23% from 2020....

....MUCH MORE

Monday's post:
Real Estate: "Overdue China Evergrande Results Will Show Huge Losses"

There will have to be a wipe-out of all the equity, all the dollar denominated debt and most of the renminbi denominated debt will be restructured. Even then it will be a close run thing.

When something gets announced, copper will pop higher which will offer a short opportunity. As we said in November 2022's "Copper: What's Your Timeframe?":

...And enough with this nonsense: "Copper price rises on China’s property support".

As we've said a few times, government support of the overindebted property developers is not nearly the same thing as supporting the construction of new housing.

It's bankruptcy with Chinese characteristics. Our theme song going forward will be: