Monday, July 31, 2023

"JP Morgan on the 'stealth stimulus' supporting the US economy even after rapid rate hikes"


Lifted in toto from ForexLive, July 26:

JP Morgan on the US deficit and how its supporting the economy. Main points from their note:

  • The FY23 deficit is tracking about US$1.5 trillion, but only thanks to the odd accounting of student debt forgiveness
  • Excluding student debt, the deficit would be closer to $1.8tn, and almost $1tn larger than in FY22
  • This widening should partly reverse as we move into FY24, when we project a deficit around $1.6tn
  • This year's "stealth stimulus" may help explain the economy's resilience to rapid interest rate hikes

ForexLive home

If interested see also:

July 16: "Why Does The U.S. Economy Need $154 Billion-737 Million In Stimulus PER MONTH?"  which ended with our market recommendation: Keep on Dancing. 

July 26: Spoiler Alert: "It's All Been A Pack Of Lies"

And a random sampling of related posts:

The Diminishing Marginal Productivity of Debt in the U.S. 

Congressional Budget Office: "US will add $19 trillion to the national debt in the next decade" Annual Interest Payment To Reach $1.4 Trillion

The Real Problem With Stimulus  

Mohamed El-Erian: "The Growth Engines Are Sputtering"

We are in a situation where years worth of economic growth have been pulled forward from future years by deficit spending, call it stimulus, call it sweet, sweet Biden love, whatevs; and the only way to keep the hamster wheel spinning is to keep feeding money into the system.
And have I mentioned marginal productivity of debt?* ....

And as patient reader is well aware the smallest state is Delaware we have been beating this drum since the bailouts of the Great Financial Crisis.

Sorry about the Delaware ref, I was thinking about something else.