Friday, July 21, 2023

ENSO Forecast: July 2023 Quick Look (El Niño)

From IRI/Columbia University, July 19:

A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)

As of mid-July 2023, the previously weak El Niño conditions in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have strengthened gradually to a weak-to-moderate El Niño. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with the weak El Niño, although atmospheric variables, particularly SOI, are currently in the ENSO-neutral range. CPC issued an El Niño advisory in July 2023, signaling the presence of the warm phase of the ENSO. Almost all of the models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast an El Niño event during boreal summer, continuing into boreal autumn and winter, while weakening during the boreal spring of 2024....


As one of the sidebar articles shows, the dynamic (vs. the statistical) models have been more accurate this go-round which is problematic as they average over a full half-degree higher peak for the ENSO 3.4 region of the Pacific: