Friday, July 28, 2023

PCE Inflation Up 0.2% in June, Up 3.0% Year-over-Year

That's the headline number. Year-over-year excluding food and energy was up 4.1%.

From the Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 28:

Personal income increased $69.5 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 3 and table 5). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $67.5 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $100.4 billion (0.5 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.2 percent (table 9). Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in June and real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.9 percent and services increased 0.1 percent (tables 5 and 7).

  2023
Feb. Mar. Apr. May June
Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:  
     Current dollars 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3
Disposable personal income:  
     Current dollars 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3
     Chained (2012) dollars 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.2
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):  
     Current dollars 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.5
     Chained (2012) dollars 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4
Price indexes:  
     PCE 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2
     PCE, excluding food and energy 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
     PCE 5.0  4.2 4.3 3.8 3.0
     PCE, excluding food and energy 4.7  4.6 4.6 4.6 4.1

The increase in current-dollar personal income in June primarily reflected an increase in compensation that was partly offset by a decrease in personal income receipts on assets (table 3)....

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