Friday, July 21, 2023

Poland Moves Troops To Border With Belarus

 The Poles had already brought up border police to reinforce their lines and crossing points and now its military. Not quite the mobilizations of July 1914 but not unicorns and rainbows either.

Following on July 19's "Will Poland Widen The War To Belarus?" regarding the provocation of having Wagner not just in Belarus but moving toward the Polish border which ended with my profundity: "Unfortunately for Wagner, Poland might take exception to Russian mercenaries approaching their border with Belarus." and July 20's "Russia’s Wagner mercenaries launch joint training with Belarusian military near Polish border":

This is not a good idea on the part of "Europe's Last Dictator". Not that Poland needs a casus belli but offering one up would more than likely lead to regime change in Minsk. And I'm not even talking about Article V and Victoria Nuland and the rest of the color revolution gang. And then you throw the nukes into the mix...

July 21, from Reuters:

Poland to move soldiers to east of country due to Wagner risks, state news agency reports

Poland's security committee decided in a meeting on Wednesday to move military units to the country's east due to the Wagner Group's presence in Belarus, state-run news agency PAP quoted its secretary as saying on Friday.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was shown in a video on Wednesday welcoming his fighters to Belarus, telling them they would take no further part in the Ukraine war for now but ordering them to gather their strength for Africa while they trained the Belarusian army....


Which was followed by, also from Reuters, July 21:

Putin tells Poland any aggression against Belarus is attack on Russia

With Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty chiming in:

'Something Will Happen': Fears In Poland As Wagner Trains Belarusian Soldiers '5 Kilometers' From Border

Then Sputnik decided to throw this into the mix:

Poland Considering Sending Troops to Western Ukraine - Russian Foreign Intel Head 

If interested, Here's an abbreviated timeline from The History Place of that that long-ago July of 1914:

...June 28, 1914 - Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austrian throne, and his wife, visit Sarajevo in Bosnia. A bomb is thrown at their auto but misses. Undaunted, they continue their visit only to be shot and killed a short time later by a lone assassin. Believing the assassin to be a Serbian nationalist, the Austrians target their anger toward Serbia.

July 23, 1914 - Austria-Hungary, with the backing of Germany, delivers an ultimatum to Serbia. The Serbs propose arbitration as a way to resolve dispute, but also begin mobilization of their troops.

July 25, 1914 - Austria-Hungary severs diplomatic ties with Serbia and begins to mobilize its troops.

July 26, 1914 - Britain attempts to organize a political conference among the major European powers to resolve the dispute between Austria-Hungary and Serbia. France and Italy agree to participate. Russia then agrees, but Germany refuses.

July 28, 1914 - The Austro-Hungarian Empire declares war on Serbia.

July 29, 1914 - Britain calls for international mediation to resolve the worsening crisis. Russia urges German restraint, but the Russians begin partial troop mobilization as a precaution. The Germans then warn Russia on its mobilization and begin to mobilize themselves.

July 30, 1914 - Austrian warships bombard Belgrade, capital of Serbia.

July 31, 1914 - Reacting to the Austrian attack on Serbia, Russia begins full mobilization of its troops. Germany demands that it stop.

August 1, 1914 - Germany declares war on Russia. France and Belgium begin full mobilization.

August 3, 1914 - Germany declares war on France, and invades neutral Belgium. Britain then sends an ultimatum, rejected by the Germans, to withdraw from Belgium.

August 4, 1914 - Great Britain declares war on Germany. The declaration is binding on all Dominions within the British Empire including Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India and South Africa.

August 4, 1914 - The United States declares its neutrality....