What Is "Bond King" Jeff Gundlach Worried About? Tech Stocks and The Dollar

As was the case in 2000 we look for the Nasdaq 100 (and the composite) to lead the way down, possibly even as the DJIA and S&P trade higher.*
From Yahoo Finance, July 6:

Gundlach: Why the dollar and the tech rally are 'real risks' to investors

Bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach believes the “fiscal explosion” associated with the coronavirus will ultimately lead to a weaker dollar — and investors aren’t giving enough weight to that risk.

The “twin deficits” created by runaway government spending and continued U.S. appetite for foreign purchases have long been seen as a negative for the greenback, the world’s most dominant fiat and reserve currency. However, the CEO of DoubleLine Capital said a dollar crash — if and when it happens — could easily cause the U.S.’s financial dominance to “fade away.”

While it’s not imminent, “there’s a risk that the dollar starts to reverse into a significant downtrend because the value of the dollar versus other currencies is greatly affected by the growth in our budget and trade deficit," Gundlach told Yahoo Finance in a wide-ranging interview.

While the U.S. trade deficit has fallen because of the COVID-19 crisis’ impact on global growth, the same factor has sent the fiscal deficit exploding.

Although every major economy is “doing strange policies” to thwart the virus’ effect on their economy, Gundlach insisted the U.S.’s balance sheet is worse.

The world’s largest economy “dwarfs the policies, particularly what the Federal Reserve is doing, versus the European Central Bank (ECB) and other central banks. What we're doing dwarfs who they've been up to. We're really carrying the burden here in terms of fiscal explosion," Gundlach added. 

A number of economists have warned the fiscal surge could result in a weaker dollar, which might create purchasing power problems. Additionally, "the dominance of the U.S. markets will start to fade away," the billionaire added. 

Six problems with the rally

In the midst of a record second-quarter rally, Gundlach told Yahoo Finance that Wall Street’s recent outperformance in the face of surging coronavirus infections was actually driven by what he dubs the "Super 6," which consists of Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Netflix (NFLX), and Microsoft (MSFT). 

"Without the Super 6, there is no earnings growth in the United States stock market. There isn't any for the past five years. If you take them out, there's nothing,” the investor said....

....MORE

*When things get going they can move very fast.
On Friday March 10, 2000 the Nasdaq closed at 5048.62, it's all-time high.

On the following Monday the Naz was down 141 points. On Tuesday, 200.

The index had begun a 30-month decline to it's September 24, 2002 intra-day low of 1,169.04,
down 77%.

This became one of my favorite songs:

The Day the NASDAQ Died

Humble Pie (sung to the tune of American Pie)

A long, long week ago
I can still remember how the market used to make me smile
What I'd do when I had the chance
Is get myself a cash advance
And add another tech stock to the pile.

But Alan Greenspan made me shiver
With every speech that he delivered
Bad news on the rate front
Still I'd take one more punt

I can't remember if I cried
When I heard about the CPI
I lost my fortune and my pride
The day the NASDAQ died 

 

So bye-bye to my piece of the pie
I poured my paycheck into Datek
Now my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
We're right back where we were in July 

Did you buy stocks you never heard of?
Q COM at 150 or above?
'Cos your plumber told you so
Now do you believe in Home Depot?
Can Wal-Mart save your portfolio?
And can you teach me what's a P/E ratio? 

Well, I know that you were leveraged too
So you can't just take a long-term view
Your broker shut you down
No more margin could be found

I never worried on the whole way up
Buying dot coms from the back of a pickup truck
But Friday I ran out of luck
It was the day the NAAAASDAQ died
.

I started singin'
Bye-bye to my piece of the pie
I poured my paycheck into Datek
Now my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
Yeah we're right back where we were in July 

Now for ten days, we've been on our own
And E-trade won't pick up the phone
But that's not how it used to be
When investors snapped up EMC
With cash they borrowed easily
And a quote that flashed up permanently green

Oh, and just as things were turning 'round
Joel Klein slapped Mister Softee down
The courtroom was adjourned
A guilty verdict was returned
And while Gilder read a book on quarks
Buffet smirked and Greenspan barked
The bulls were eaten by the sharks
The day, the NASDAQ died
.

I started singin' ...

Manic panic, it's just like the Titanic
Unsinkable and now under the Atlantic
We're at four thou and falling fast
All at once the bottom-fishers pounced
But that just caused a dead-cat bounce
'Cos Mister Softee, from the sidelines, preannounced

Now the graph-lines showed complete collapse
While the margin calls were coming fast
We all were forced to sell
Our Apple, E-Bay and Intel
Then the bear funds moved to take the field
And the long bond shed a point of yield
Was Glass-Steagall ever really repealed?
The day, the NASDAQ day 

We started singing...
.

Oh, and suddenly we're underwater
Millionaires all hot and bothered
With no cash left to buy again
So come on, Fed be anxious, com-pen-sate
By lowering the discount rate
'Cause easy money is a bubble's only friend

Oh, and as I watched the index fall
I received the dreaded margin call
No broker born in hell
Could make me want to sell
But as my gains fell fast into the crash
E-Trade began demanding cash
The talking heads were talking trash
The day, the NASDAQ died
.

They were singing...

I met an analyst for Micromuse
I asked him for their earnings news
But he just smiled and turned away
I logged on to the trading floor
Where I made my fortune weeks before
But they demanded to see cash before I played

And on T.V. the ticker streamed
Kudlow cried and Barton dreamed
Not a bullish word was spoken
The daytraders were choking

And the three stocks I acquired last
AMAT, Dell and Infocast
Couldn't catch a bid and faded fast
The day, the NASDAQ died

And they were singing....
Bye-bye to my piece of the pie
I poured my paycheck into Datek
Now my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
Yeah we're right back where we were in July

—Brady/Kearny

Thanks to iTulip for giving it eternal cyber-life.