Thursday, July 30, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report

First up, the estimates going into the report via FX Empire:
...Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is reporting that Energy Aspects issued a preliminary estimate for an 18 Bcf injection for the week-ending July 24 in this week’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report.
“Other predictions for Thursday’s EIA report have been pointing to an injection in the 20s Bcf range. A Bloomberg survey as of early Wednesday showed a median prediction of 23 Bcf based on six estimates ranging from 18 Bcf to 30 Bcf. NGI’s storage model predicted a build of 24 Bcf”,  Natural Gas Intelligence wrote.
The forecasts compared with a 56 Bcf build for the same week a year earlier and the five-year average injection of 33 Bcf, according to the EIA.
The averages of injection forecasts, if proven accurate, would mark the lowest weekly figure this summer and the lowest in a five-week string of sub-100 Bcf additions to gas stockpiles, NGI reported....
The report from the Energy Information Administration:
Working gas in storage was 3,241 Bcf as of Friday, July 24, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 26 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 626 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 429 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,812 Bcf. At 3,241 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.  
 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range  
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
And the price reaction via the CME (NYMEX):

That is an overreaction and we are still looking for prices to move: first, through the triple (or multiple) top just below the $2.00 line and secondly, to a front month price of $3.50 later into the heating season.