Thursday, July 30, 2020

Tropical Storm Isaias: This Is Where Prediction Gets Tricky

As the models shift the storm track from a run straight up the Florida peninsula east into the Atlantic the system will start to cross some warm (29°C/84°F) water off the northern Georgia/South Carolina border.
The National Hurricane Center has the storm remaining below the 74 mph wind speed that upgrades Isaias to a hurricane, should the system linger it will suck up peta-joules of energy, becoming a hurricane and leaving the only question to be how strong the recurve to the east will be.

From the NHC:

From meteorologist Ryan Maue: