Friday, July 24, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report, July 23, 2020: A Flurry of Optimism

First up, the guesses going into the report via FX Empire:
...Traders are looking for a sub-100 Bcf storage injection for the four consecutive week. The consensus is for a storage injection of 37 Bcf.
Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) says, “Ahead of the report, a Bloomberg survey found injection estimates ranging from 28 Bcf to 46 Bcf, with a median of 36 Bcf. The average of a Wall Street Journal poll was 35 Bcf, with a low estimate of 28 Bcf and a high of 41 Bcf. A Reuters poll found estimates ranging from 28 Bcf to 46 Bcf and an average of 36 Bcf. NGI estimated a build of 35 Bcf.”
“The forecasts compare with a 44 Bcf storage build in the same week last year and a five-year average increase of 37 Bcf.”...
The report from the Energy Information Administration:
Working gas in storage was 3,215 Bcf as of Friday, July 17, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 37 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 656 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 436 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,779 Bcf. At 3,215 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range....MUCH MORE
While there is storage available, so no problems similar to those for WTI when Cushing prices went negative, injections are pushing the upper end of the five-year range for this time of year:

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

Finally, the price reaction via FinViz (5-minute bars):

Currently 1.755  -0.030
Yesterday's top tick was 1.805 and the low print 1.677.
Too fast for the blog