Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Almonds: Production Up 18%, Exports Up 4% Means Cheaper Nuts For U.S.

All those trees planted in 2014 - 2015 have yet to begin producing in size, so this situation could stick around for another two to four years.

From Pacific Nut Producer, July 7:
USDA Confirms Record 3 Billion Pound CA Almond Crop Forecast
The California Almond Objective Measurement Report, published today by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), estimates that the 2020 crop will be 3.00 billion meat pounds, up 18% from the 2019 crop production of 2.55 billion pounds.[1] This estimate is even with the 3.00 billion pounds estimated in the California Almond Subjective Forecast, published in May 2020.
According to the 2020 Objective Report, the average nut set per tree is 5,645, up 21% from the 2019 almond crop. The Nonpareil average nut set is 5,621, up 27% from last year’s set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.51 grams, down 2 percent from the 2019 average weight.
“This year’s crop is proof that California is the perfect place to grow almonds,” said Holly A. King, Kern County almond grower and Chair of the Almond Board of California (ABC) Board of Directors. “Perfect weather during bloom, coupled with the steps almond growers have taken to ensure our orchards provide a healthy environment for honey bees and other pollinators, resulted in the abundant crop we are seeing on the trees up and down the Central Valley.”...MORE
And from RPAC (producer), July 10:
The Almond Board of California released the June 2020 position report  
Shipments:  175.4 million lbs. vs. 165.2 million in 2019 –  UP 6.2% (+3.9% YTD)


U.S.  +2.4%  (+4.1% YTD) 
Exports  +8.2%  (+3.8% YTD
Western Europe -1% (+6% YTD) 
China/HK/Vietnam  -54% (-40% YTD) 
India +52% (+7% YTD) 
Middle East / Africa +90% (+36% YTD) 
Japan  -29% (+5% YTD)
South Korea +47% (-4% YTD) 
Canada -28%  (-2% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe +63% (+15% YTD)


From the Glory Days:
August 2014
Psst, I Think They're Catching On to the Almond Racket

As the narrator used to say as the lions approached the wildebeest during the old-timey British nature shows:
"Sadly now, there can be but one outcome."
January 2016
Almonds: This Is Nuts, Here's The Crash

Almonds and the California Drought (UPDATED)
Land: U.S. Orchards Again Outperform Cropland For Investment Returns
Psst, I Think They're Catching On to the Almond Racket
Noble Nuts: "Almond, hazelnut prices to rise - but not peanut values"
How Growers Gamed California’s Drought"
Lay Off the Almond Milk, You Ignorant Hipsters
Trading the California Drought: Almonds and Water
California Drought: Why Farmers Are 'Exporting Water' to China
"California Almonds Saved by Diverting Water From Veggies"
A Higher Yielding Alternative to Corn and Wheat: "Agriculture Investors Develop a Taste for Permanent Crops"
Straight Talk on Weather and Climate: "Will California's Drought Bring About $7 Broccoli?"
Projected Price Increases For Foods Affected By the California Drought
"Nut prices, elevated by weather setbacks, 'to stay high'"
El Nino Won't Come Quick Enough To Break the California Drought
U.S. Farmland Has Been the Top Performing Asset Over the Last 20 Years: Goodbye to all that
Attention Fiduciaries: Strawberry Farming Up to 9796% More Profitable Than Corn