Herd on the Street: "Some New York neighbourhoods may have 68% coronavirus immunity"

From The Independent:

Clinics in neighbourhoods badly hit in the spring are seeing dramatically high rates of positive antibody tests

New data from clinics in New York City shows that some neighbourhoods may have already achieved remarkably high levels of immunity to the coronavirus, with as many as two-thirds of antibody tests coming back positive.

However, the results appear to be wildly uneven across the city, and neighbourhoods less affected by the city’s devastating spring outbreak may now be the most vulnerable if a new surge in infections begins.

The data, shared with the New York Times by healthcare company CityMD, indicate that clinics in two neighbourhoods – Corona and Jackson Heights, both in Queens – have seen the majority of antibody tests come back positive, with 68 per cent and 56 per cent respectively. Meanwhile, some wealthier neighbourhoods are seeing positivity rates as low as 13 per cent.

The disparity across different New York neighbourhoods appears to track the way the virus affected different communities, with poorer communities and people of colour far more likely to be badly hit than affluent white neighbourhoods.

If antibodies do indeed provide immunity, wealthy neighbourhoods that so far have a low infection rate may be the most at risk should a so-called “second wave” of the outbreak arise later this year.

There are, however, some caveats to bear in mind while reading the data. The people coming forward to get tested are still more likely to have been infected than others, meaning that the rate across their neighbourhoods is almost certainly lower than the testing sample would indicate – though just how much lower remains unclear.

And while numerous candidate vaccines are now undergoing human trials around the world, it is not yet fully understood to what degree people with antibodies are in fact immune, or how long any immunity they develop will last....MORE

Meanwhile, The Jewish Telegraphic Agency is reporting, July 8:

Brooklyn’s Hasidic Jews are acting like they have herd immunity. Could they be right?

(JTA) – The front page of the June 26 issue of Der Yid, one of the most widely circulated Yiddish newspapers among New York’s Hasidic Orthodox communities, made the point loud and clear.
“And so it was after the plague.”

Those words, lifted from a verse in the Torah and printed alongside photos of large gatherings of unmasked Hasidic men, had a clear implication: After months of funerals and fear, the modern-day pandemic had passed and the time had come to gather again.

That sentiment appears to be guiding life in Brooklyn’s Hasidic communities, where nearly four months after the virus first arrived, synagogues and camps are open, yeshivas resumed classes before closing for summer break and wedding halls are packed again, sometimes in violation of city and state rules designed to slow the spread of disease. 

Continued gatherings of Hasidic Jews drew criticism from New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and others in the city this spring who said the communities were not doing their part to stop the spread of the virus. But inside the communities, the overwhelming perception is that most people have had the virus and may now be immune. 

“That’s the feeling, that they’ve had it, everybody they know has had it, and the people they know who haven’t had it have some kind of immunity that we just don’t understand yet,” one Williamsburg health administrator said.

If community members’ assumptions are correct — and that’s a big if, as much is not yet known about whether and how COVID-19 infections provide later immunity — Brooklyn’s Orthodox neighborhoods would stand alone. Even in the few places such as Sweden that have explicitly pursued a strategy of trying to reach herd immunity, antibody tests show that most of the population there has not yet been infected.

But a confluence of bad timing, large families in cramped apartments and a highly social way of life that can’t be replaced virtually gave residents of Brooklyn’s Orthodox neighborhoods little opportunity to try to prevent a major outbreak. Now local health care providers and administrators say surveys and tests suggest that as many as 70% of the community has had COVID-19 and recovered, and that new cases have slowed or stopped entirely in their neighborhoods, despite a near total return to normal behavior, including large gatherings....

....MUCH MORE 

We looked at Corona on April 1st:

Corona, Queens Is NYC's Epicenter Of Coronavirus Outbreak

Goodbye to Rosie, the Queen of Corona.
Mr. Simon grew up a few miles from Corona and Flushing Meadows Corona Park.
He made it across the river to Central Park in 1981:...MORE

And again on May 9:

...And it is true that Corona's population density is quite high at something like 80,000 per square mile. But it is also true that the comorbidities will get you too. The Hispanic-majority and black population that makes up Corona is more susceptible to obesity and diabetes than the population of the adjoining Asian-majority neighborhood of Flushing (density 54,000 per square mile), see link below*....MORE