Manic Panic Its Just Like The Titanic: The Year 2000 As Analogue For The Recent Decline In Equities

We're coming up on the 20th anniversary of the March 10, 2000 top tick in the Nasdaq stock index.
Here's what we posted on the 10th commemoration of 5048:
Happy Anniversary Mr. Market: Ten Years Ago Today...

...Internet.com put out this press release:

INTERNET.COM'S ISDEX, THE INTERNET STOCK INDEX, BREAKS 1,000, A GAIN OF 1000% IN LESS THAN FOUR YEARS

(New York, NY-March 10, 2000)-internet.com Corporation's (Nasdaq: INTM) ISDEX(r), the Internet Stock Index (http://www.isdex.com), rose above 1,000 for the first time last week. Since its inception in 1996, ISDEX has posted a 1,012% gain, outpacing the Dow and S&P 500, which have only increased 104% and 120%, respectively, during the same period. The ISDEX has also outpaced these indices for this year, with the ISDEX up 29% and both the Dow and S&P down 13% and 5%, respectively.

"With a gain of more than 29% since January 1 alone, it is clear that Internet stocks continue as one of the overall economy's strongest sectors," said Alan M. Meckler, chairman and CEO of internet.com Corporation....

The Nasdaq closed that Friday at 5048.62, it's all-time high.
On the following Monday the Naz was down 141 points. Tuesday, 200.
The index had begun a 30-month decline to it's September 24, 2002 intra-day low of 1,169.04,
down 77%.....

Analogues have their limits and we are not forecasting anything near as bad as the crash of the Naz.
It's just that in its rapidity the recent action in the S&P 500 has precedent.
And what a fine precedent it was, giving birth to the first half of our headline as part of one of my favorite songs.
Note especially the multiple references to how fast things went bad:

The Day the NASDAQ Died

Humble Pie (sung to the tune of American Pie)

A long, long week ago
I can still remember how the market used to make me smile
What I'd do when I had the chance
Is get myself a cash advance
And add another tech stock to the pile. 

.

But Alan Greenspan made me shiver
With every speech that he delivered
Bad news on the rate front
Still I'd take one more punt

I can't remember if I cried
When I heard about the CPI
I lost my fortune and my pride
The day the NASDAQ died 

.

So bye-bye to my piece of the pie
I poured my paycheck into Datek
Now my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
We're right back where we were in July 

.

Did you buy stocks you never heard of?
Q COM at 150 or above?
'Cos your plumber told you so
Now do you believe in Home Depot?
Can Wal-Mart save your portfolio?
And can you teach me what's a P/E ratio? 

.

Well, I know that you were leveraged too
So you can't just take a long-term view
Your broker shut you down
No more margin could be found

I never worried on the whole way up
Buying dot coms from the back of a pickup truck
But Friday I ran out of luck
It was the day the NAAAASDAQ died

I started singin'

.
Bye-bye to my piece of the pie
I poured my paycheck into Datek
Now my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
Yeah we're right back where we were in July 

.

Now for ten days, we've been on our own
And E-trade won't pick up the phone
But that's not how it used to be
When investors snapped up EMC
With cash they borrowed easily
And a quote that flashed up permanently green

Oh, and just as things were turning 'round
Joel Klein slapped Mister Softee down
The courtroom was adjourned
A guilty verdict was returned
And while Gilder read a book on quarks
Buffet smirked and Greenspan barked
The bulls were eaten by the sharks
The day, the NASDAQ died

I started singin' ... 

.

Manic panic, it's just like the Titanic
Unsinkable and now under the Atlantic
We're at four thou and falling fast
All at once the bottom-fishers pounced
But that just caused a dead-cat bounce
'Cos Mister Softee, from the sidelines, preannounced
.

Now the graph-lines showed complete collapse
While the margin calls were coming fast
We all were forced to sell
Our Apple, E-Bay and Intel
Then the bear funds moved to take the field
And the long bond shed a point of yield
Was Glass-Steagall ever really repealed?
The day, the NASDAQ day
.

We started singing...

Oh, and suddenly we're underwater
Millionaires all hot and bothered
With no cash left to buy again
So come on, Fed be anxious, com-pen-sate
By lowering the discount rate
'Cause easy money is a bubble's only friend
.

Oh, and as I watched the index fall
I received the dreaded margin call
No broker born in hell
Could make me want to sell
But as my gains fell fast into the crash
E-Trade began demanding cash
The talking heads were talking trash
The day, the NASDAQ died

They were singing...
.

I met an analyst for Micromuse
I asked him for their earnings news
But he just smiled and turned away
I logged on to the trading floor
Where I made my fortune weeks before
But they demanded to see cash before I played

And on T.V. the ticker streamed
Kudlow cried and Barton dreamed
Not a bullish word was spoken
The daytraders were choking

And the three stocks I acquired last
AMAT, Dell and Infocast
Couldn't catch a bid and faded fast
The day, the NASDAQ died

And they were singing....
Bye-bye to my piece of the pie
I poured my paycheck into Datek
Now my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
Yeah we're right back where we were in July

-Brady/Kearny

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