Thursday, February 20, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report: Big Draw, Small Effect

Buy on mystery, sell on history.
First up, the expectations via FX Empire:
...EBW said the major surveys indicate a withdrawal between 141 and 147 Bcf, a pull on the lighter side of that range could further weaken prices. Bloomberg analysts projected withdrawals as low as 138 Bcf and as high as 158 Bcf. The Wall Street Journal estimates a figure as low as 135 Bcf. Reuters is looking for a withdrawal as high as 166 Bcf. NGI’s model is calling for a 149 Bcf withdrawal.
Last year’s withdrawal was 163 Bcf and the five-year average draw is 136 Bcf, according to the EIA....
From the EIA:
Working gas in storage was 2,343 Bcf as of Friday, February 14, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 151 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 613 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 200 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,143 Bcf. At 2,343 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. 
And from the CME, this week's price action:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XH1P7RN4/

Front futures 1.988 +0.033 after trading to 2.025 at the report.