For folks not familiar with the contest, each year writers from around the world compete to emulate the opening sentence of Edward George Earle Bulwer-Lytton's (1st Baron Lytton) novel "Paul Clifford"
Although it is not the first sentence of Ms Kaminska's piece, "What if solar has a utility-scale demand problem?", when I got to:"It was a dark and stormy night; the rain fell in torrents—except at occasional intervals, when it was checked by a violent gust of wind which swept up the streets (for it is in London that our scene lies), rattling along the housetops, and fiercely agitating the scanty flame of the lamps that struggled against the darkness."
I did a coffee-out-the-nose snort while exclaiming to a rather alarmed companion: "She did that deliberately!!"“...we’ve built it, but they’re not coming, because arriving at the destination is turning out to be a lot more expensive than we appreciated”.
But enough with my little divertissement, here's a look at solar by someone who actually knows the subject. (thanks for the mention Izzy):
In the great race to reduce the impact of climate change, solar photovoltaics are widely perceived as a tried and tested technology that’s ready for deployment in the here and now, and on a mass scale.
If any barriers exist they’re largely perceived as solvable through private or public-sector led investment, an impression firmly underpinned by the “if we build it they will come” mentality.
The view is further bolstered by the falling year-to-year cost of modules and their increasing cost competitiveness with fossil fuels, which gives the impression that when it comes to solar’s viability as an alternative energy source, the sector is winning.....MUCH MORE
But global industry dynamics suggest there may be greater economic headwinds than many appreciate. A key stumbling block remains the global oversupply of modules versus demand, in large part driven by the saturation of profitable deployment sites but also loss-leading manufacturing by state-assisted corporations.
A better adage in that context might be “we’ve built it, but they’re not coming, because arriving at the destination is turning out to be a lot more expensive than we appreciated”.
So how can costs be reduced without increasing the burden on government subsidisation — especially as deployment scales up and eats into budgetary commitments elsewhere?
It’s worth looking at the specific challenges at hand more closely.
On that front, a hat tip to Climateer for alerting us to the fact that US solar-panel maker First Solar massively disappointed the Street last Friday when it reported a surprise quarterly loss and below-expectation sales. Shares were down as much as 14.9 per cent.
While there were plenty of unique issues affecting the results, among them the settlement of a $363m class-action lawsuit for a historical failure to report defects, one interesting factoid highlighted by the Street was that the company was looking to evaluate options for its solar farm-building business from the quarter onwards. Those options include the possible sale of all or a portion of the US project development business.
This directly feeds into the bigger trends at hand for the solar industry.
For those who don’t know, First Solar, which went public in 2006, is primarily focused on the business of manufacturing solar modules.
Within that field, the company differentiates itself by specialising in the production of non-crystalline-based solar panels, known as thin film. These are more cost effective to produce than crystalline alternatives. The technology is also perceived to be more eco-friendly as it relies less on silicon wafers and more on cadmium telluride. Both materials are toxic, but the latter — combined with other materials used in thin film production — is easier and less costly to recycle.
But there are trade offs. Thin film modules aren’t as efficient as their crystalline counterparts and need a lot more surface area to achieve the same generation capability. This makes them less suitable for private rooftops and much more useful for large-scale utility developments: one of the reasons First Solar moved into the systems development business in the first place. ....
Oh we had a jolly time with FSLR, it was the poster child of the 2005-2008 mania:
Nov. '06 IPO at $20, $317.00 top tick in May 2008, $11.43 by June 2012. Yeah baby!
A Google search of the blog site:climateerinvest.blogspot.com "First Solar" returns 1060 hits with this as #1:
First Solar Drops Like A Turd From A Tall ... - Climateer InvestingWe are so proud.
climateerinvest.blogspot.com › 2016/11 › first-solar-drops-like-turd-f...
Nov 16, 2016 - First Solar Drops Like A Turd From A Tall Cow (FSLR). Splat During the regular session the stock was down 1.11% (37¢) to $32.82 and ...
And just so you know we are no Bulwer-Lytton's-come-lately here's a 2010 post on a WSJ blog:
Climateer Line of the Day: MarketBeat does Bulwer-Lytton Edition (ACN)
MarketBeat's Matt Phillips has a walk-off home run. Game over.
From their post "Accenture for a Penny: MarketBeat’s Investigation Continues!":
Like a rottweiler on a slightly undercooked leg of lamb, MarketBeat refuses to let go of its probe of the depths of Thursday’s Flash Crash, particularly the momentary trades that priced ostensibly healthy companies such as Accenture at one cent....That makes "It was a dark and stormy night" read like Blake in comparison...
Unfortunately we had to report some months later:
MarketBeat's Matt Phillips Does Not Win the 2010 Bulwer-Lytton Contest
If interested here is the Bulwer-Lytton contest homepage.
List of winning entries, 1983 - 2019.
On a more serious note, Bulwer-Lytton coined the phrases "the great unwashed", "pursuit of the almighty dollar", "the pen is mightier than the sword" and lived at Knebworth House.
How you doin'?
