Friday, February 14, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update

First up, the last two week's price action via FinViz:


1.8480 up 0.0220 (1.20%)

From the Energy Information Administration:
for week ending February 12, 2020   |  Release date:  February 13, 2020  
In the News:
North Dakota provides regulatory guidance to reduce natural gas flaring
Natural gas production in North Dakota reached 3.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in November 2019, a more than ten-fold increase compared with January 2010 levels. In the first 11 months of 2019, North Dakota flared about 20% of its natural gas production, or 0.56 Bcf/d, which is 40% higher than in 2018. Increases in natural gas production are primarily related to associated gas produced from oil wells in the Bakken formation. Flaring refers to combusting natural gas in the atmosphere instead of capturing and processing natural gas in a processing plant.

North Dakota implemented natural gas capture goals in 2014 to limit the amount of natural gas flared into the atmosphere. Natural gas processing capacity has increased alongside crude oil production but has lagged behind the growth in associated natural gas production. The state natural gas capture target—currently at 88% and set to increase to 91% in November 2020—has not been met in every month since March 2018. In the most recent data month, November 2019, only 83% of natural gas produced in North Dakota was captured.

Insufficient natural gas processing capacity has placed constraints on crude oil production, and oil producers are looking for ways to comply with natural gas capture targets. According to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, natural gas processing plant capacity additions in 2019 increased total capacity by 0.71 Bcf/d to reach 3.1 Bcf/d. They expect an additional 0.9 Bcf/d of natural gas processing to enter service during 2020 and 2021. These additions will support crude oil production growth, but the new capacity may fill up faster than anticipated.....

..... Overview:

(For the week ending Wednesday, February 12, 2019)

  • Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, February 5 to Wednesday, February 12). The Henry Hub spot price rose from $1.85 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.87/MMBtu yesterday.
  • At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the price of the March 2020 contract decreased 2¢, from $1.861/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.844/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging March 2020 through February 2021 futures contracts rose 2¢/MMBtu to $2.172/MMBtu.
  • The net withdrawal from working gas totaled 115 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending February 7. Working natural gas stocks total 2,494 Bcf, which is 32% more than the year-ago level and 9% more than the five-year (2015–19) average for this week.
  • The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 27¢/MMBtu, averaging $4.33/MMBtu for the week ending February 12. The prices of natural gasoline, propane, butane, and isobutane fell by 2%, 3%, 15%, and 19%, respectively. Isobutane prices have experienced larger-than-normal price movements over the past month as Enterprise’s isobutane dehydrogenation plant entered service and ramped up to full operating capacity. The price of ethane rose by 3%.
  • According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, February 4, the natural gas rig count decreased by 1 to 111. The number of oil-directed rigs rose by 1 to 676. The total rig count stayed at 790.

Prices/Supply/Demand:
Prices rise at most locations. This report week (Wednesday, February 5 to Wednesday, February 12), the Henry Hub spot price traded within a narrow range and rose 2¢ from $1.85/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.87/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures across the Lower 48 states were generally warmer than normal, especially on the East Coast, with colder-than-normal temperatures across the Rocky Mountains. At the Chicago Citygate, the price increased 9¢ from $1.74/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.83/MMBtu yesterday....
And speaking of yesterday:
EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, February 13, 2020