New York Fed 4th Quarter GDP Growth Estimate: 1.1%; Q1 Estimate 1.0%

From the Federal Reserve Bank of New York:

Jan 03, 2020: New York Fed Staff Nowcast

• The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.1% for 2019:Q4 and 1.0% for 2020:Q1.
• News from this week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2019:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point and decreased the nowcast for 2020:Q1 by 0.5 percentage point.
• Negative surprises from the ISM manufacturing survey accounted for most of the decrease.

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By comparison the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow, which as we've found over the years, tends to run 'hot' compared to both the Nowcast and to final figures, is quite a bit higher:

Latest forecast: 2.3 percent — January 3, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent on January 3, unchanged from December 23. After this week's data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real government spending growth and fourth-quarter real net exports were offset by declines in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth....

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