Friday, January 31, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update

Following up on yesterday's "EIA Natural Gas Storage Report, January 30, 2019"
Have I mentioned....
Enough with that schtick, there's a lot of gas around.
New multi-year low print on the continuous contract.....
Front (March) futures  1.839  +0.010.

From the Energy Information Administration, Thursday afternoons:
for week ending January 29, 2020   |  Release date:  January 30, 2020
(For the week ending Wednesday, January 29, 2019)
  • Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week (Wednesday, January 22 to Wednesday, January 29). The Henry Hub spot price rose from $1.89 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.92/MMBtu yesterday.
  • At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the February 2020 contract expired yesterday at $1.877/MMBtu, down 3¢/MMBtu from last Wednesday. The March 2020 contract price decreased to $1.865/MMBtu, down 3¢/MMBtu from last Wednesday to yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging March 2020 through February 2021 futures contracts declined 4¢/MMBtu to $2.177/MMBtu.
  • The net withdrawal from working gas totaled 201 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending January 24. Working natural gas stocks total 2,746 Bcf, which is 24% more than the year-ago level and 8% more than the five-year (2015–19) average for this week.
  • The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 14¢/MMBtu, averaging $4.76/MMBtu for the week ending January 29. The prices of natural gasoline, ethane, and propane fell by 5%, 5%, and 11%, respectively. The prices of isobutane and butane rose by 9% and 11%, respectively.
  • According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, January 21, the natural gas rig count decreased by 5 to 115. The number of oil-directed rigs rose by 3 to 676. The total rig count decreased by 2, and it now stands at 794.

Prices remain low at most locations amid unseasonably warm temperatures. This report week (Wednesday, January 22 to Wednesday, January 29), the Henry Hub spot price traded within a narrow range, rising 3¢ from a low of $1.89/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.92/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures were warmer-than-normal across the Lower 48 states, especially across the Northeast and Great Plains. At the Chicago Citygate, the price was unchanged from last Wednesday at $1.80/MMBtu.....
U.S. LNG exports increase week over week. Twenty-one liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels (eight from Sabine Pass; four from Freeport; three from Corpus Christi; and two each from Cove Point, Elba Island, and Cameron) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 75 Bcf departed the United States between January 23 and January 30, according to shipping data compiled by Bloomberg.

The net withdrawal from storage totaled 201 Bcf for the week ending January 24, compared with the five-year (2015–19) average net withdrawal of 143 Bcf and last year's net withdrawal of 171 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,746 Bcf, which is 193 Bcf more than the five-year average and 524 Bcf more than last year at this time.

According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from a net withdrawal of 180 Bcf to 225 Bcf, with a median estimate of 202 Bcf.....

Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Jan 23, 2020