Thursday, January 30, 2020

Chartology: Oil

Following up on January 26's ""Why The Coronavirus Is A Real Threat To Oil Markets"":
Both Brent and WTI have gotten rocked since General  Soleimani was killed and World War III did not erupt:

And our usual knee-jerk reaction would be to wait for a counter-trend rally somewhere in this vicinity.
The problem with trading the chart is the lack of transparency on exactly what is going on in China.
I mean there is more than there was during the SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, simply because of cell phones (but also because satellite coverage has gotten much cheaper) but we still don't have answers.
Charles Hugh Smith at his Of Two Minds blog has thought through some of the queries:....

Well, oil did indeed put on a little rally, for all of two days, from that exact spot:

And is now making another up move as I type, with the front March contract having double-bottomed at the day's low of $51.92 and jumping over 1% in the last hour.

So what does it all mean?
"Nobody knows anything"
—William Goldman 

You don't have to be a market playa every minute of the day.
Sometimes it's best to just take your marbles and retire to the sidelines for a bit.