Monday, January 27, 2020

The Weak El Niño Weakens Further and Once Weakened Moves On*

*Apologies to Omar Kayyam.
From IRI/Columbia:
IRI ENSO Forecast
2020 January Quick Look
Published: January 21, 2020

A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)

Use the navigation menu on the right to navigate to the different forecast sections
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts....MORE
IRI/CPC ENSO Predictions Plume
Published: January 19, 2020
Note on interpreting model forecasts
The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and statistical models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month periods. Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance, are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year--namely, they are better when made between June and December than when they are made between February and May. Differences among the forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the forecast of the possible future SST scenario.
*“The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.”
So you're saying I'm stuck with it?