Autonomous Vehicles: "Major Trends in Russian Military Unmanned Systems Development for the Next Decade"
From the U.S. Army's Mad Scientist Initiative:
[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory has previously described
how unmanned systems, including advanced battlefield robotic systems
acting both autonomously and as part of a wider trend in man-machine
teaming, will account for a significant percentage of combatant forces
in the future. Earlier this month, the U.S. Army awarded contracts
for four Robotic Combat Vehicle-Light (RCV-L) and four RCV-Medium
(RCV-M) prototypes for testing in late 2021. In today’s post, returning
guest blogger and proclaimed Mad Scientist Sam Bendett
explores three trends associated with Russian battlefield autonomous
systems — read on to learn how this near-peer competitor is embracing
this game changingtechnology!]
The next 10 years will be significant for the Russian military, as it
will begin to capitalize on the fruits of its previous decades of labor
– the investment in new technologies, testing and evaluation of new
weapons and systems, and conceptualizing the future of warfare and
Russia’s place in the rapidly evolving art of war. There are three major
Russian trends to observe in the next ten years. The first is the
emphasis on Russia’s development and use of unmanned combat systems.
Orion UAV / Source: http://vitalykuzmin.net via Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 InternationalRussia’s Syria experience — and monitoring the U.S. use of unmanned
systems for the past two decades — convinced the Ministry of Defense
(MOD) that its forces need more expanded unmanned combat capabilities to
augment existing Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR)
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) systems that allowed Russian forces to
observe the battlefield in real time. The next decade will see Russia
complete the testing and evaluation of an entire lineup of combat drones
that were in different stages of development over the previous decade.
They include the heavy Ohotnik combat UAV (UCAV); mid-range Orion that was tested in Syria; Russian-made Forpost, a UAV that was originally assembled via Israeli license; mid-range Korsar; and long-range Altius
that was billed as Russia’s equivalent to the American Global Hawk
drone. All of these UAVs are several years away from potential
acquisition by armed forces, with some going through factory tests,
while others graduating to military testing and evaluation. These UAVs
will have a range from over a hundred to possibly thousands of
kilometers, depending on the model, and will be able to carry weapons
for a diverse set of missions.
Uran-9 UGV / Source: http://vitalykuzmin.net via Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 InternationalThe Russian ground forces have also been testing a full lineup of
Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs), from small to tank-sized vehicles armed
with machine guns, cannon, grenade launchers, and sensors. Today, the
MOD is conceptualizing how such UGVs could be used in a range of combat
scenarios, including urban combat. And at sea, Russia is looking to
field a lineup of Unmanned Underwater and Surface Vehicles (UUVs/USVs)
that will give Russian vessels and maritime assets greater ISR range and
capability, along with key ASW, de-mining, and even combat
characteristics. In fact, there are potential plans to equip naval ships
with air, surface, and subsurface unmanned systems, making each vessel
in the Russian Navy a carrier and user of unmanned technology.
Russian Minister of Defense Shoigu briefs President Putin on the ERA technopark in 2018 / Source: en.kremlin.ruAnother significant trend is the gradual shift from manual control
over unmanned systems to a fully autonomous mode, perhaps powered by a
limited Artificial Intelligence (AI) program. The Russian MOD has
already communicated its desire to have unmanned military systems
operate autonomously in a fast-paced and fast-changing combat
environment. While the actual technical solution for this autonomy may
evade Russian designers in this decade due to its complexity, the MOD
will nonetheless push its developers for near-term results that may
perhaps grant such fighting vehicles limited semi-autonomous status. The
MOD would also like this AI capability be able to direct swarms of air,
land, and sea-based unmanned and autonomous systems. To get to the
right solutions, the MOD has opened centers and institutions tasked with
hi-tech weapons development and testing.
This includes Russia’s own
DARPA-like agency, the Advanced Research Foundation, where AI and swarming technologies are developed; and the ERA technopark that is managed by the MOD....
