Friday, January 24, 2020

Natural Gas: Month Ahead Temperature Forecasts

We've found the anomalies from the model runs of NOAA's NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) as presented by the Climate Prediction Center's Mingyue Chen to have what the computer modelers call predictive skill.
For the next two weeks the anomaly maps pretty much speak for themselves, not a lot of interpretive ability needed:

February natural gas futures: 1.901 down 0.025
Soon to be front month March contract: 1.873  down 0.031

I will point out that for the next two weeks things are looking up for polar ice in both our areas of concern, the Bering Sea/Straits/Chukchi Sea and the Fram Strait east of Greenland.

Here are weeks 3 and 4.