The IMF has a very checkered history of doing what is within their remit, much less going beyond same.
On the other hand the Bank for International Settlements have their little Swiss mitts on the data their central bank owners produce and must be on your radar, if for no other reason than the fact they are on everyone else's radar.
Keynesian beauty contests aside, the actual content of their (BIS) actions and pronouncements can be pretty handy when navigating "Through many dangers, toils and snares".
Here's an example that was worth serious money.
On June 26, 2007 (i.e. pre-"Quant-quake", pre-Bear Stearns, pre-aught-eight-near-catastrohe) we posted a short little piece:
"(Off-topic) Bank's banker warns of downturn":
So while we have the IMF running in the background of awareness if the BIS was to say something similar we'd be moving with alacrity.THE risk of a 1930s-style economic slump has been heightened by "euphoric" markets tapping cheap global credit, one of the world's pre-eminent financial institutions has said.In its annual report, the Bank for International Settlements noted that the conditions that led to the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Asian crises in the 1990s reflected the current environment.From The Age
From The Guardian, January 17:
Kristalina Georgieva compares today with “roaring 1920s” and criticises UK wealth gap
The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy risks a return of the Great Depression, driven by inequality and financial sector instability.
Speaking at the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington, Kristalina Georgieva said new IMF research, which compares the current economy to the “roaring 1920s” that culminated in the great market crash of 1929, revealed that a similar trend was already under way.
While the inequality gap between countries had closed in the last two decades, it had increased within countries, she said, singling out the UK for particular criticism.
“In the UK, for example, the top 10% now control nearly as much wealth as the bottom 50%. This situation is mirrored across much of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), where income and wealth inequality have reached, or are near, record highs.”
She added: “In some ways, this troubling trend is reminiscent of the early part of the 20th century – when the twin forces of technology and integration led to the first gilded age, the roaring 20s, and, ultimately, financial disaster.”Got it. Uncertainty. Increasing.
She warned that fresh issues such as the climate emergency and increased trade protectionism meant the next 10 years were likely to be characterised by social unrest and financial market volatility.
“If I had to identify a theme at the outset of the new decade, it would be increasing uncertainty,” she said....MORE
