Rabobank revises fishmeal, shrimp and salmon predictions for 2020
Two months after its last report on the global animal protein production sector, Rabobank’s Gorjan Nikolik offers The Fish Site some revised thoughts on the recent performance of the fishmeal, salmon and shrimp sectors as well as some insights into their outlook for 2020 and beyond.
“We got it wrong with fishmeal,” Nikolik admits. “Back in November we expected soft prices due to the large quota (2.8 million tonnes) that had been set for Peruvian anchovies and due to the pile up of fishmeal inventories in China that were being caused by the reduced demand from the pig sector due to African swine fever.
“However, since then the anchovy catch looks likely to drop to closer to 1 million tonnes, with early closures looking likely and China’s aquaculture sector has used up the fishmeal inventory, meaning that fishmeal prices are going to be fairly strong after all.”....MUCH MORE
Despite a return to comparatively normal fishmeal prices, the seafood analyst believes that the fish farming sector will not be hit hard.
“It shouldn’t affect the aquaculture sector too much – in part due to the comparatively low inclusion rates of fishmeal in contemporary feeds and in part due to the fact that the price is recovering to normal levels. It’s also good news for alternative protein producers, who struggle to compete when fishmeal prices are too low,” he says.
Salmon growth set to slow
Nikolik also notes that the salmon sector threw up a few surprises last year.
“We had expected a decline in production but it turned out to be a strong growth year, especially in Norway – where there were even some double-digit growth months over the summer,” he reflects....
